WWJ XIII: 'Til Death Do We LARP - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 11-18-2006, 06:47 PM

Farael's last post makes me drop in this one thought too before I go to bed.

I have kind of looked at the three possible explanations to Lommy's death on my own point of view. But taking the example Farael provided: were I the wolf here, I would never try such a frame up against Valier as I would think that it would just be too easy to pick up and thence lead to my lynching. (Well in case I had failed in that way I could always say that it is a double bluff and someone is trying to frame me by making you believe I tried to frame Valier...

) But the question is, how would CoD think of it? Would he think of it as a good idea?

These kinds of questions we need to consider toDay, all of us.

Valier · 11-18-2006, 06:55 PM

Wow Nog your post makes my head spin.....I just can't get all these conspiracy theory's. I thought why would the wolf be so dumb as to frame me, when it would certainly look like I was being framed? And if the wolf was trying to frame me, who is it? Is it CoD, thinking we wouldn't think he was that dumb , so we would kill farael? Or is it Farael hoping that you either take the framing as real and you kill me or that you don't and kill CoD.....AAAHHHHHH!! This is making my brain hurt already! Ok I need to slow down and think about this some more.

Farael · 11-18-2006, 07:06 PM

I think it's quite simple... Valier is quite experienced, thus she would have killed Nogrod, which is the safest move and it leaves absoultely no trail. By killing Loomy the wolf must have thought that he could frame Valier who was Loomy's other suspect (other than the now deceased Volo I mean).

I know I'm an ordo
I know Noggy is an ordo
I am fairly sure that Valier, should she have been a wolf, would have killed Nogrod

Thus, and taking into consideration that in any other situation Loomy's death would have reflected poorly on Valier it leads me to think that CoD is our last remaining wolf.

CaptainofDespair · 11-18-2006, 08:33 PM

Interesting, Farael. You continue such direct attacks against me. Perhaps trying to frame me to get me killed once and for all? I know you relish the thought.

And I find it interesting that you seem so certain you know why Thinlomien was killed and not Nogrod.

But you leave out one crucial factor. I am smart enough to see the benefit of killing Nogrod. It makes more sense, even to me.

You could be our wolf, easily, Farael. You have wonderful little theories abour why I could be it...yet those ideas could well be taken from your own playbook.

And Valier, I will say this: I have gotten through this on being both lucky, and being a distraction. Granted, you all started that distraction. But in any case, I became a good cover for the wolves, it seems.

Farael · 11-18-2006, 10:17 PM

See, that's what I don't like CoD... you are saying "if I was a wolf..." and yet, why should we trust you?

Why should you trust me? well, you figure that out... but I think I've proven my innocence by actions, not by speaking, unlike you my friend.

I wouldn't write Valier off just yet, only because of the whole episode with CobleRune thinking Naria the wolf a wolf and CoD an ordo (which probably lead to the death of CobleRune but if we ignore that, I'd grab my ptichfork in a moment and be done with you CoD

Yet we can't ignore it... question is, do we really know why the wolves killed Rune? after all, he was not really contributing a whole lot, which fits the MO of the wolves at the time, they were killing those that spoke little.

Did they take a chance? did they actually think that Rune was the seer because he nailed Naria? now what if CoD IS a wolf and they figured that killing Rune would exonerate whoever survived between him or Naria?

We don't know what the wolves thought, maybe they just lucked out and hadn't seen those comments... and then they ran along when Loomy brought it up.... or maybe they had it all planned out, and were waiting for someone to point it out before doing it themselves.

What's my point?

Well, while Valier seems the most logical choice, we should still do as much analysis as we can, and ultimately it is up to us.

Farael · 11-19-2006, 02:47 AM

Well, it all winds down to this... I won't be online tomorrow at all and thus I have to cast my vote and pray for the best. If I am wrong, I sure hope that the two remaining ordos will cast their vote for the wolf before s/he comes in to vote.

Now for my reasoning. Valier is the logical choice, but solely based on one episode and a series of assumptions by many of us. If it wasn't for the whole deal with Rune I wouldn't even hesitate. But then, it is a fairly logical assumption that the wolves panicked thinking Rune was the Seer.

On the other hand, I've been suspecting CoD all game long, and all he has done was defend himself. I can't recall him making any strong cases, other than his self-defence he has been tossing suspicion around lightly and going along with the flow for the most part.

Last night though was a big deal for me. Since Loomy suspected Valier I think that the wolf was trying to frame her. We could argue for a double-bluff, but I think that we ordos consistently think too much of the wolves. Nine out of ten times, they won't multiple-bluff.

I know I'm an ordo, Nogrod is an ordo too, so that leaves the one I've suspected all along

++CoD.

And if I'm wrong, then may Eru have mercy on our souls.

Best of lucks for the end of the day. I hope I haven't just condemned us all... and the worst part is that I will not know until late tomorrow night.

Nogrod · 11-19-2006, 04:30 AM

*crosses fingers*

If CoD is innocent, the wolf has practically won. But as long as it won't come in and vote we have hope left.

If Farael himself is not our wolf who got unlucky by RL and had to vote first...

I'll be back a bit later.

11-18-2006, 06:47 PM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Farael's last post makes me drop in this one thought too before I go to bed. I have kind of looked at the three possible explanations to Lommy's death on my own point of view. But taking the example Farael provided: were I the wolf here, I would never try such a frame up against Valier as I would think that it would just be too easy to pick up and thence lead to my lynching. (Well in case I had failed in that way I could always say that it is a double bluff and someone is trying to frame me by making you believe I tried to frame Valier... ) But the question is, how would CoD think of it? Would he think of it as a good idea? These kinds of questions we need to consider toDay, all of us. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

11-18-2006, 06:55 PM	#2
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	Wow Nog your post makes my head spin.....I just can't get all these conspiracy theory's. I thought why would the wolf be so dumb as to frame me, when it would certainly look like I was being framed? And if the wolf was trying to frame me, who is it? Is it CoD, thinking we wouldn't think he was that dumb , so we would kill farael? Or is it Farael hoping that you either take the framing as real and you kill me or that you don't and kill CoD.....AAAHHHHHH!! This is making my brain hurt already! Ok I need to slow down and think about this some more. __________________ grand return?........

11-18-2006, 07:06 PM	#3
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	I think it's quite simple... Valier is quite experienced, thus she would have killed Nogrod, which is the safest move and it leaves absoultely no trail. By killing Loomy the wolf must have thought that he could frame Valier who was Loomy's other suspect (other than the now deceased Volo I mean). I know I'm an ordo I know Noggy is an ordo I am fairly sure that Valier, should she have been a wolf, would have killed Nogrod Thus, and taking into consideration that in any other situation Loomy's death would have reflected poorly on Valier it leads me to think that CoD is our last remaining wolf. __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

11-18-2006, 10:17 PM	#5
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	See, that's what I don't like CoD... you are saying "if I was a wolf..." and yet, why should we trust you? Why should you trust me? well, you figure that out... but I think I've proven my innocence by actions, not by speaking, unlike you my friend. I wouldn't write Valier off just yet, only because of the whole episode with CobleRune thinking Naria the wolf a wolf and CoD an ordo (which probably lead to the death of CobleRune but if we ignore that, I'd grab my ptichfork in a moment and be done with you CoD Yet we can't ignore it... question is, do we really know why the wolves killed Rune? after all, he was not really contributing a whole lot, which fits the MO of the wolves at the time, they were killing those that spoke little. Did they take a chance? did they actually think that Rune was the seer because he nailed Naria? now what if CoD IS a wolf and they figured that killing Rune would exonerate whoever survived between him or Naria? We don't know what the wolves thought, maybe they just lucked out and hadn't seen those comments... and then they ran along when Loomy brought it up.... or maybe they had it all planned out, and were waiting for someone to point it out before doing it themselves. What's my point? Well, while Valier seems the most logical choice, we should still do as much analysis as we can, and ultimately it is up to us. __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

11-19-2006, 02:47 AM	#6
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	Well, it all winds down to this... I won't be online tomorrow at all and thus I have to cast my vote and pray for the best. If I am wrong, I sure hope that the two remaining ordos will cast their vote for the wolf before s/he comes in to vote. Now for my reasoning. Valier is the logical choice, but solely based on one episode and a series of assumptions by many of us. If it wasn't for the whole deal with Rune I wouldn't even hesitate. But then, it is a fairly logical assumption that the wolves panicked thinking Rune was the Seer. On the other hand, I've been suspecting CoD all game long, and all he has done was defend himself. I can't recall him making any strong cases, other than his self-defence he has been tossing suspicion around lightly and going along with the flow for the most part. Last night though was a big deal for me. Since Loomy suspected Valier I think that the wolf was trying to frame her. We could argue for a double-bluff, but I think that we ordos consistently think too much of the wolves. Nine out of ten times, they won't multiple-bluff. I know I'm an ordo, Nogrod is an ordo too, so that leaves the one I've suspected all along ++CoD. And if I'm wrong, then may Eru have mercy on our souls. Best of lucks for the end of the day. I hope I haven't just condemned us all... and the worst part is that I will not know until late tomorrow night. __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

11-18-2006, 08:33 PM	#4
CaptainofDespair Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 413	Interesting, Farael. You continue such direct attacks against me. Perhaps trying to frame me to get me killed once and for all? I know you relish the thought. And I find it interesting that you seem so certain you know why Thinlomien was killed and not Nogrod. But you leave out one crucial factor. I am smart enough to see the benefit of killing Nogrod. It makes more sense, even to me. You could be our wolf, easily, Farael. You have wonderful little theories abour why I could be it...yet those ideas could well be taken from your own playbook. And Valier, I will say this: I have gotten through this on being both lucky, and being a distraction. Granted, you all started that distraction. But in any case, I became a good cover for the wolves, it seems.

11-19-2006, 04:30 AM	#7
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	crosses fingers If CoD is innocent, the wolf has practically won. But as long as it won't come in and vote we have hope left. If Farael himself is not our wolf who got unlucky by RL and had to vote first... I'll be back a bit later. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...