WWJ XIII: 'Til Death Do We LARP - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 11-19-2006, 07:25 AM

Analysis based on the voting record.

Valier
Day1: Did not wish to break the tie between Ang and CoD. Looks innocentish as it would be too eyebrow-raising were she a wolf?
Day2: Puts Gurthang in the lead over wolf-Naria with 1-2 votes still coming (Volo had said not to be there and Farael had been away, so possibly only one vote left and thence a decider?). Could be seen as saving a pal but then again a bit too bold maybe?
Day3: Voting for CoD and thence easing the pressure on wolf-Naria by lifting CoD to the game (after her vote CoD2, Naria3). Again helping a friend but looking a bit too bold?
Day4: Couldn’t have voted otherwise...
Day5: Bandwaggoned Volo and gave the deciding vote actually lynching him.

She has not been suspected in earnest in the whole game and not voted either. Her voting record yells for a wolf, a bold and friend-helping wolf indeed. Could that be? If we think our wolf is confident, she would look like it.

Farael
Day1: No vote. Voted by Boro-wolf.
Day2: Votes overtime for Durelin and then changes to CoD. The vote not counted.
Day3: No vote. Voted by Boro-wolf (but there was no actual danger of Farael being lynched, if he’s a fellow to Boro)
Day4: Couldn’t have voted otherwise...
Day5: Gave the second vote for Volo. Safe.

He has been heavily suspected by Boro-wolf and voted by him too, but has actually not been in great danger from it. So possibly a scheme? His voting record looks terrible (two no-votes and one overtime, one “compulsory” and one “safe” vote) and is hard to draw on. Anyhow all this eases my suspicions on him a bit.

CoD
Day1: Voted Lommy in retaliation and thence spreaded voting even though he himself was in the lead.
Day2: Voted by wolf-Naria and retaliated, putting her at level with Gurthang, above all others.
Day3: Continued against wolf-Naria, making her lead the tally with one vote.
Day4: Couldn’t have voted otherwise...
Day5: Vote for Volo which had no meaning whatsoever anymore as Volo was already dead (Volo had voted for CoD a few times before, so from the way CoD seems to play that looks reasonable, though).

Even though I don’t approve of his reasons for voting, his relation to wolf-Naria looks not wolvish, on the contrary. So might be innocent then?

Nogrod · 11-19-2006, 08:00 AM

If Farael is the wolf and will be gone as he said he will be, we might yet be saved as no wolf will be rushing in to claim victory toDay.

If CoD is a wolf the same thing will happen: no rushing in wolves to be seen toDay.

So if no one claims victory before the last moments of the Day myself and Valier need to come up with a choice between the two.

If Valier is a wolf (which I consider at the moment most likely of you three), we're dead already unless me and CoD vote her before she gets back online.

But if I'm wrong here and vote for Valier the innocent, then CoD, if wolf, will be let out from the tight spot he is now and will carry the Day and the game...

If Valier is a wolf she will come and claim victory by voting CoD. If she is not, she will come in with a complaint of the following:

In Valier's play there seems to be a pattern and a logic - albeit quite a bold one and CoD's voting Naria twice looks pretty unwolvish.

++ Valier

I'm looking worwards to you entering Valier. If you come in before CoD and do not claim victory but protest my vote, I will retract it.

CoD, if you're the wolf...

But if you CoD are innocent, remember that if Valier has already been in and wailing for my vote and not claiming victory by voting you, then she is not the wolf - and thence Farael is!

A lot depends just on who comes in the next...

CaptainofDespair · 11-19-2006, 08:19 AM

++Valier

If only to save myself...

Edit: More thoughts to come.

Nogrod · 11-19-2006, 09:10 AM

Thanks CoD! You made just what I hoped you would as we have now eliminated Farael's vote and are back on the zero-point. That is best to us all.

Why so? Look at the following.

If Valier indeed is the wolf she can't come in and take her victory just by voting you as she has now gathered two votes first. So we are now secured against that possibility.

Whether CoD starts to look like the wolf, I may retract my vote on Valier and vote him instead and he might be lynched.

And we all have now time and breathing space also to consider Farael without forcefully needing to disregard him because of previous voting.

So back to the drawingboard and really considering this seriously, everyone. And let's stay careful with voting from this on. And I do hope you two stick to this seriously toDay. I will interpret quietness heavily suspicious as avoidance of discussion that would be tempting for a wolf indeed.

-------------
Remember Farael will not come and retract so his vote stays. CoD and myself may retract once and Valier has two votes left.

Farael --> CoD (CoD1) - will not be retracted
Nogrod --> Valier (CoD1, Valier1) - subject to change
CoD --> Valier (CoD1, Valier2) - changeable

CaptainofDespair · 11-19-2006, 09:43 AM

Indeed.

If Farael is the wolf, he may have been hoping that Valier would show up to vote for me. Voting first for me would be the safe vote, and since his is non-retractable, all he needs to do is entice one person to finish the job. And he has been suspicious of me before (practically the whole game?), and has voted for me before, so it won't seem that odd to just vote CoD.

Maybe I am over-thinking all of this, but it does feel quite 'safe' to do it that way. His hastiness in voting for me feels off. Would an ordinary villagers really vote that quickly, knowing he has a non-retractable vote? Unless he was really, really sure of himself, I'm inclined to think not.

Valier · 11-19-2006, 10:52 AM

wow I go to sleep and look what happens.....I am the wrong choice I assure you and I have no desire to die now and let the village lose to this mangy wolf. What else is there to say? If you want to lose, go ahead kill me. But come on now. Don't you want to win? There must be something else we can say or do, so that we assure a village win.

Nogrod · 11-19-2006, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valier

I am the wrong choice I assure you and I have no desire to die now and let the village lose to this mangy wolf. What else is there to say? If you want to lose, go ahead kill me. But come on now. Don't you want to win? There must be something else we can say or do, so that we assure a village win.

You surely know there is lots of other things to do... How about putting forwards a point or two to help us?

11-19-2006, 07:25 AM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	triple posting... Analysis based on the voting record. Valier Day1: Did not wish to break the tie between Ang and CoD. Looks innocentish as it would be too eyebrow-raising were she a wolf? Day2: Puts Gurthang in the lead over wolf-Naria with 1-2 votes still coming (Volo had said not to be there and Farael had been away, so possibly only one vote left and thence a decider?). Could be seen as saving a pal but then again a bit too bold maybe? Day3: Voting for CoD and thence easing the pressure on wolf-Naria by lifting CoD to the game (after her vote CoD2, Naria3). Again helping a friend but looking a bit too bold? Day4: Couldn’t have voted otherwise... Day5: Bandwaggoned Volo and gave the deciding vote actually lynching him. She has not been suspected in earnest in the whole game and not voted either. Her voting record yells for a wolf, a bold and friend-helping wolf indeed. Could that be? If we think our wolf is confident, she would look like it. Farael Day1: No vote. Voted by Boro-wolf. Day2: Votes overtime for Durelin and then changes to CoD. The vote not counted. Day3: No vote. Voted by Boro-wolf (but there was no actual danger of Farael being lynched, if he’s a fellow to Boro) Day4: Couldn’t have voted otherwise... Day5: Gave the second vote for Volo. Safe. He has been heavily suspected by Boro-wolf and voted by him too, but has actually not been in great danger from it. So possibly a scheme? His voting record looks terrible (two no-votes and one overtime, one “compulsory” and one “safe” vote) and is hard to draw on. Anyhow all this eases my suspicions on him a bit. CoD Day1: Voted Lommy in retaliation and thence spreaded voting even though he himself was in the lead. Day2: Voted by wolf-Naria and retaliated, putting her at level with Gurthang, above all others. Day3: Continued against wolf-Naria, making her lead the tally with one vote. Day4: Couldn’t have voted otherwise... Day5: Vote for Volo which had no meaning whatsoever anymore as Volo was already dead (Volo had voted for CoD a few times before, so from the way CoD seems to play that looks reasonable, though). Even though I don’t approve of his reasons for voting, his relation to wolf-Naria looks not wolvish, on the contrary. So might be innocent then? __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

11-19-2006, 08:00 AM	#2
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	If Farael is the wolf and will be gone as he said he will be, we might yet be saved as no wolf will be rushing in to claim victory toDay. If CoD is a wolf the same thing will happen: no rushing in wolves to be seen toDay. So if no one claims victory before the last moments of the Day myself and Valier need to come up with a choice between the two. If Valier is a wolf (which I consider at the moment most likely of you three), we're dead already unless me and CoD vote her before she gets back online. But if I'm wrong here and vote for Valier the innocent, then CoD, if wolf, will be let out from the tight spot he is now and will carry the Day and the game... If Valier is a wolf she will come and claim victory by voting CoD. If she is not, she will come in with a complaint of the following: In Valier's play there seems to be a pattern and a logic - albeit quite a bold one and CoD's voting Naria twice looks pretty unwolvish. ++ Valier I'm looking worwards to you entering Valier. If you come in before CoD and do not claim victory but protest my vote, I will retract it. CoD, if you're the wolf... But if you CoD are innocent, remember that if Valier has already been in and wailing for my vote and not claiming victory by voting you, then she is not the wolf - and thence Farael is! A lot depends just on who comes in the next... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

11-19-2006, 08:19 AM	#3
CaptainofDespair Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 413	++Valier If only to save myself... Edit: More thoughts to come. Last edited by CaptainofDespair; 11-19-2006 at 08:24 AM. Reason: Delayed Reasoning

11-19-2006, 09:10 AM	#4
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Thanks CoD! You made just what I hoped you would as we have now eliminated Farael's vote and are back on the zero-point. That is best to us all. Why so? Look at the following. If Valier indeed is the wolf she can't come in and take her victory just by voting you as she has now gathered two votes first. So we are now secured against that possibility. Whether CoD starts to look like the wolf, I may retract my vote on Valier and vote him instead and he might be lynched. And we all have now time and breathing space also to consider Farael without forcefully needing to disregard him because of previous voting. So back to the drawingboard and really considering this seriously, everyone. And let's stay careful with voting from this on. And I do hope you two stick to this seriously toDay. I will interpret quietness heavily suspicious as avoidance of discussion that would be tempting for a wolf indeed. ------------- Remember Farael will not come and retract so his vote stays. CoD and myself may retract once and Valier has two votes left. Farael --> CoD (CoD1) - will not be retracted Nogrod --> Valier (CoD1, Valier1) - subject to change CoD --> Valier (CoD1, Valier2) - changeable __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

11-19-2006, 10:52 AM	#6
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	wow I go to sleep and look what happens.....I am the wrong choice I assure you and I have no desire to die now and let the village lose to this mangy wolf. What else is there to say? If you want to lose, go ahead kill me. But come on now. Don't you want to win? There must be something else we can say or do, so that we assure a village win. __________________ grand return?........

11-19-2006, 09:43 AM	#5
CaptainofDespair Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 413	Indeed. If Farael is the wolf, he may have been hoping that Valier would show up to vote for me. Voting first for me would be the safe vote, and since his is non-retractable, all he needs to do is entice one person to finish the job. And he has been suspicious of me before (practically the whole game?), and has voted for me before, so it won't seem that odd to just vote CoD. Maybe I am over-thinking all of this, but it does feel quite 'safe' to do it that way. His hastiness in voting for me feels off. Would an ordinary villagers really vote that quickly, knowing he has a non-retractable vote? Unless he was really, really sure of himself, I'm inclined to think not.