Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Holby, I'm the last to advocate hasty stereotyping. I'm pinpointing those who haven't posted merely to
a) Keep track of them, it's easy to overlook them.
b) Try to prompt them to post!

Only meant it (and the rest of post) in general terms, a reminder even to myself.
I'm glad someone, in this case you, occassionally tallies to see who hasn't spoken yet.

Originally Posted by Folwren

I beg to differ. That is not obvious. Morm's behavior in that first post is shocking and appauling to me.

Understandably, but we must remember that he is rude boy.

Farael, I get it.

[Kitanna]

I am afraid I need to cast a vote now. I'm hoping to grab on a few minutes online tomorrow before work, but it's nothing I can promise or I'd hold off voting.
I'll admit this is a pretty random vote and I do hate random votes. But I feel it is better to cast one out here randomly then completely miss out on the voting process.

++ Morm

I hold no real strong feelings toward any one player, but I rarely trust Morm. So due to my lack of trust I put my vote out there for Morm for that reason. Not the best of reasons, but I'd hate to miss the voting altogether.

[Farael]

Well, I dare not postpone this any longer... I have very little to go on, and I hope I'll be able to sneak back sometime before the deadline, but it'll be a close call and I want to get a vote in.

It's too soon to vote for a "silent" one, as they may yet speak before the day is over, but unless something happens, and if I get back in time, I shal doubtlessly vote according to my plan. It's up to you all to follow me or not.

Yet for now, I have two main suspects. My Brains tell me Rikae's reaction to Morm was rather weird (or wolfish). My Gut tells me there's something fishy about Folwren. Based on my luck on previous games, I should go for Folwren... and you know what? I think I will. I really have nothing better to go on than that "feeling" that there's something wrong.

++Folwren.

I hope to be back on time to lynch me a silent one.

[Naria]

Oh my, how the tongue can go on and on and on and on. *Snaps a piece of bubble gum and continues chewing* I will now go and read what all has been said. Oh and before I go and do this, just a reminder...don't hate me because I'm a quiet heiress, afterall quietness has been passed down to me and I am entitled to a Day one's grace. *Pulls out her scroll* see it says so right here. "Upon my death, my only daughter Naria will be entitled to a first Day's grace from any lynching if she comes upon a werewolf infested village." *Snaps gum again and toddles off to read*

[Naria]

Naria hasn't posted, which probably doesn't surprise anyone.

*almost chokes on her bubble gum*Pff, says you!! This comment got under my skin a little bit Rikae and right under this you state the same about Eomer and Valier, but omit the crass 'doesn't surprise anyone' statement. And then there's this

in my first game I was quite talkative, as those who played with me might remember.

Yes I do remember that village. I do, however, disagree that you are playing the same way. Yes you were talkative, but not in a flood posting kind of way and you were much more helpful and reasonable. You have an air about you that is very unsettling to me in this village. Someone pointed out(can't remember who) that a wolf wouldn't be so bold as to post as much as you have and(as far as I can see) get into pretty much everyone's face like you have. I disagree with this. I believe that a wolf Rikae would do something out of the ordinary and flood post and have little spats within our group. It would be the perfect plan, do something that no one would think a wolf would do. Afterall, there is already one dancer that has fallen for it.

I will be keeping a close eye on you m'dear. For now, I am off to slumberland.

[Cailín]

The loud versus silent debate could go on forever. Of course I think Naria is quiet and creepy (all my ancestors agreed unanimously on this), but she does have that Day One grace she was referring to, and anyway, I think she has actually been more talkative than usual.

I cannot help but finding Farael's behaviour a bit suspicious. He posts quite a lot, and passionately too, and is all together too much in favour of lynching those silent ones. On the other hand, I think this may be normal behaviour from him when he is an ordinary.

Rikae seems very eager to get involved and appears overly helpful, but I actually think she is an innocent. Sure, she is somewhat defensive after Mormegil's vote; but then again, the vote was cast in a decidedly unpleasant manner. I am rather against the notion of forcing people to post, though. Friendly banter and floodposting that usually leads to little dialogues between people are just the sort of thing wolves could hide behind. After all, who believes something fanged and furry would be skilled in basic social chit-chat?

Mormegil is thus quite obviously innocent as well. Generally, the ruder he gets, the less likely he is to be a wolf. I have no idea how he did find out Eomer is innocent, but undoubtedly he is very right indeed.

Gah! As usual, I am inclined to believe everyone is completely blameless in this whole affair.

Folwren does seem a little out of the ordinary. And this is not based on her Stoic Countess-ness, but much more on the fact that she seems to act rather out of character in post #68, in which she calls Mormegil's post "appalling" and refuses to answer to Farael again.

But I am worried that it comes down to focusing on all those that have posted much again. Now I do agree that there was an outrageous amount of posting during the first four hours of the dance, but as words are the only thing we have going for us this game, this was to be expected.

Actually, I am disappointed Nogrod (yes, you especially) did not come up with some interesting, complex and confusing theory concerning the two Cobblers. While wolves can have some selfish interests and sacrifice their comrades (or in this case comrade) to sail to a personal victory, the Cobblers will ultimately have to defend the wolf they know the identity of. Their behaviour and death might be very telling this time, in a twisted Seer-like manner. Now I am not saying we should try and purposefully hunt down the Cobblers, that would be irrational and a waste of time, but it is interesting nonetheless.

None of the other dancers seem as yet very guilty or shifty to me, so I do hope one of the evil creatures will do something rash before the day is out.

[Macalaure]

Let's get to work, thought the mime, and instead of explaining his suspicions with his hands and feet he decided to just write his ideas down and show them to everybody.

"At the moment, I get an innocent feel from Farael, Celuien and Holbytlass. I also feel Kitanna innocent, which actually makes me suspicious in turn because I usually find her suspicious when she's innocent (that's why I understand morm's point on Farael)"

"My early suspicion of Folwren has subsided a little. Her 'Let's look at the people in the middle but also at those at the extremes' sounded pretty fluffy to me. On the other hand, I know she knows how to appear innocent when she's guilty and perhaps wouldn't have said this if she really was. She also made a little more sense afterwards."

"I don't think Rikae's defensiveness is suspicious. What is suspicious, no offense, is that to me she appears to try to be helpful without actually being helpful."

"morm is suspicious. 50 posts in 4 hours is silly? Why? It's in fact understandable after the long time of withdrawal from werewolf-infested villages. I've seen silent villages before and they're not necessarily the most fun."

"This leads me to my main suspect: Nogrod. He criticises my 'summary' because it made no sense and intended to draw suspicion towards the 'veterans'. This is nonsense. It's only goal was to be funny and there was not one reasonable claim outside of the PSs. Maybe you didn't get the joke, Nogrod, but you could've seen that if it was cobblering, it was the most ineffective cobblering there ever was.
Secondly, he suspects Folwren because she felt un-Foleyish to him. May I say that suspecting people because they do not feel like they're supposed to is very un-Noggish?
Another funny thing: He likes to lynch silent players and requests people to post, yet he does not say one word about morm's attempt to silence the village. Very strange.
Cailin makes a fair point on him, too. I miss a big what-to-do-about-the-cobblers -theory from him as well, but I'm not sure whether this means something."

"If we kill people who make little sense or act very suspicious, it's not improbable that a cobbler bites the dust along the way. Since the cobbler knows one of the wolves, this might not be the worst thing that could happen. At any rate it's better than to lynch and innocent (well, of course it is...)."

[Rikae]

Well, now. Hoom. Obvious cobblerishness makes me nervous. The cobblers in this game are the only ones (other than the wolves) who know anything, even though they'll be trying to hide it; they also can't directly kill us, so some people might imagine that we'd be inclined to keep the cobblers in play. This would make appearing cobblerish oddly safe; a bold way to hide in plain sight, espectially if it can be passed off as a joke.

Kitanna and Cailin are both making me nervous for the opposite reason; their posts seem overly safe and calculated. Valier's single post lacking any content whatsoever is still more unnerving, and as Mac and Cailin have pointed out, Noggie seems to be holding back somewhat. However, Mac and Cailin don't seem entirely innocent themselves; and lynching an innocent Nogrod would be very bad for the village indeed.
Morm is a rude boy, of course. Too rude to be a wolf (or so he'd like us to think).

[Kath]

Yeah, so I forgot we have retractable votes. Apologies for the earlier assumption morm.

Now, we have two Wolves and two Cobblers. Which is more likely to make a mistake, or do something that makes them look wolvish? The whole point of the Cobbler is to help the wolves win by keeping suspicion away from them. In this game that job is made even easier because the Cobbler's know the identity of one of the wolves. It makes sense then to assume that, if a wolf looked to be in danger, the Cobbler that knows it's identity would draw suspicion away. That may be something we need to look for over the Days to come.

As to the fighting between people, notably Rikae and morm, that's a pretty normal Day 1 thing and is likely to settle down. However, there is nothing to say that we don't have a particularly bold Cobbler in Rikae who is getting her known wolf (morm) into the spotlight so that all suspicion falls on him on Day 1 when a lynch is less likely to follow than in later Days.

Glad that Mac has started to 'talk' now. His first post seemed pretty normal to me but it's always nice to get some more information!

I'm going to have to vote a bit early toDay by the way. Dancing does take it out of you and I need a rest (or a trip to the panto in fact!) so my vote will come in the next couple of hours. Right now it may go to Farael, because to me he hasn't been vocal enough. I'm used to him making a point and following it til the death, something we haven't seen from him yet. But that could be because it's Day 1. If it doesn't go to him it may go to Holby because she hasn't really said anything. It's been little poems and answers to others.

Actually having just read back over the first page Farael was quite vociferous in his lynch the silent ones plan so I'm more inclined to go for Holby right now. Hopefully she'll come back and talk a bit more before I'm forced to vote.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

While true that the cobblers want to die for the wolves, it would be folly for them to attract the mob to them so soon. The wise cobbler will not be making a big song and dance on the first day; but as the game progresses expect them to become more vocal.