Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nice to see someone else alive here Lal!

But I have to disagree with you on two points.
It is perfectly possible that there was a cobbler or even a wolf amongst those who voted for Kath (Cailín, Macalaure, Nogrod, Eomer), but it is also possible that Kath was lynched by the innocents while the wolves grinned at the side. That would not be unheard of on first Dances.

That is indeed possible, but statistically speaking, at least one of these is likely not to be innocent. That depends on whether you think the Wolves were hoping to throw in a curveball.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I tend to see Kitanna's death more as a safe one. Funny indeed that only those that might be thought to be implied / framed by the kill are talking about the framing? Do you really think that if someone agrees with you then she is innocent?

Hmmm, of course, Rikae could be hoping to get onto my side. Which means one of several things: 1. Rikae is innocent and wants to find an ally to avoid being voted for. 2. Rikae thinks I am a wolf and hopes to appeal to me. 3. Rikae is a cobbler and thinks I am one of the wolves. 4. Rikae is a wolf and is lining me up for the kill and wishes to avoid the chance of me voting away that opportunity. So there's a half and half chance that Rikae is innocent.