Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Lalwendë · 12-29-2006, 07:35 AM

Now to Nogrod. He calls for a double lynch. I don't agree. This is far too risky. We have three innocents, and so there is a high chance we lynch two of them, and then the third would be popped off by the wolf, game over. If we single lynch then we will be guaranteed a chance (especially as only one cobbler has wolf-knowledge). Double lynch we may only have a 50:50 chance. Single lynch, we have a 1:6 chance. I think. Not good at maths!

Nogrod has voted for Kath, Folwren, Naria. All got wolfed down or lynched.
Farael has voted for Folwren, Morm, Morm.
Cailin has voted for Kath, Valier, Farael. (Celuien and Cailin had identical voting patterns until Celuien was bumped off, then she takes up Folwren's fondness for voting for Farael).
Mac has voted for Kath, Celuien, Eomer.
Holby has voted for Morm, Mac and has a spoiled ballot.

We have had votes from:
Nogrod - No-one
Farael - Folwren, Cailin.
Cailin - No-one
Mac - Holby, Morm
Holby - No-one

Mac cannot be a wolf, as even a wolf would not go along with the groundswell of votes for 'fellow wolf' Celuien. So he's innocent. That leaves one more innocent to find. I think Cailin was Celuien's cobbler, so it's not her. Looking at voting patterns (which we would not expect necessarily to match exactly, but which may follow on) I think Holby may be the wolf, and Farael her cobbler.

12-29-2006, 07:35 AM	#11
Lalwendë A Mere Boggart Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: under the bed Posts: 4,737	Now to Nogrod. He calls for a double lynch. I don't agree. This is far too risky. We have three innocents, and so there is a high chance we lynch two of them, and then the third would be popped off by the wolf, game over. If we single lynch then we will be guaranteed a chance (especially as only one cobbler has wolf-knowledge). Double lynch we may only have a 50:50 chance. Single lynch, we have a 1:6 chance. I think. Not good at maths! Nogrod has voted for Kath, Folwren, Naria. All got wolfed down or lynched. Farael has voted for Folwren, Morm, Morm. Cailin has voted for Kath, Valier, Farael. (Celuien and Cailin had identical voting patterns until Celuien was bumped off, then she takes up Folwren's fondness for voting for Farael). Mac has voted for Kath, Celuien, Eomer. Holby has voted for Morm, Mac and has a spoiled ballot. We have had votes from: Nogrod - No-one Farael - Folwren, Cailin. Cailin - No-one Mac - Holby, Morm Holby - No-one Mac cannot be a wolf, as even a wolf would not go along with the groundswell of votes for 'fellow wolf' Celuien. So he's innocent. That leaves one more innocent to find. I think Cailin was Celuien's cobbler, so it's not her. Looking at voting patterns (which we would not expect necessarily to match exactly, but which may follow on) I think Holby may be the wolf, and Farael her cobbler. __________________ Gordon's alive!