WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Nogrod]

Our little thief is either not listening to what others say or then he is knowingly trying to play down all points made to go for his wished conclusion... And who here has known targets except the wolves?

And if someone is flip-flopping in this game (if that can be made an argument), then just look at this:

He [me] conrtibuted a lot to Eomi's lynching, but didn't vote until someone else (Volo) had already done so, so that it wouldn't look like he was starting the bandwagon.

As for Volo, I don't find him all that likely to be a wolf, as wolves generally don't cast the first vote in bandwagons, at least as far as I recall.

Now trying to make a mountain out of a molehill now are we? Trying to support suspicions that have no grounds just to fool others thinking there is something? If this is not wolfy-looking, I don't know what is... And possibly covering for your friend too?

I already asked Runi yesterDay how he could find this little hobbit an innocent above all others. I had my doubts of him then but not enough. Now I think I might look at him more closely.

And I agree with Kathin about Voloin's backing me up looking somewhat fishy too. At least when I'm tending to add that as a wolf my lorebooks tell me that he is quite toned down and as an innocent he leaps here, there and everywhere...

EDIT: X'd with Durelin & Kitanna

[Kath]

Nogrod can I just ask why you think that is a flip-flop? Looking at it he's saying the same thing in a different way. He is using one point, the idea that a wolf won't vote first in a possible bandwagon, to point out guilt in you and innocence in Volo.

It seems that you either misunderstood or you're twisting words.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nogrod can I just ask why you think that is a flip-flop? Looking at it he's saying the same thing in a different way. He is using one point, the idea that a wolf won't vote first in a possible bandwagon, to point out guilt in you and innocence in Volo.

It seems that you either misunderstood or you're twisting words.

Yes you can. I tried to turn and check that one over and over again a couple of times before I posted it and thought I had it right. Let's try to see the reasoning here then as I see it.

He (menel-hobbit) says that I'm a baddie as I wait for Voloin to vote as not to be seen as one who started the bandwaggon (= those who start are looked as the guilty ones). Then he says that Voloin started it and is innocent looking (= those who start are not looked as guilty ones). I see a contradiction here. And something very fishy begging the question as goes with cases that are made forcibly, not with a genuine way the innocents try to make them...

And also it should be seen that after one or two votes it's not a bandwaggon yet. It's easy to be "wise" afterwards. It was not a bandwaggon when Voloin voted or when I did as no one else than Beornómien and Spawn knew whom they were going to vote when our votes were cast. It became a bandwaggon only after both Voloin and myself had already voted...

[Meneltarmacil]

Quite simply, it's not often that a wolf actually starts the bandwagon. They'll usually wait unti someone else has posted so as not to look suspicious. I suppose Volo could be double-bluffing there, but it'd be pretty dangerous to have double-bluffed twice at this point.

I'll be silent for a couple of hours or so starting now, by the way.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Quite simply, it's not often that a wolf actually starts the bandwagon. They'll usually wait unti someone else has posted so as not to look suspicious.

First of all. Were I a wolf, I would have loved to start it to avoid any suspicions! Secondly. Please remember what I said: it was not a waggon before Beornómien and Spawn made it such. Voloin couldn't have known he was starting a bandwaggon, neither I that I would be adding to it as there were none at the time we voted. There was no bandwaggon before the last votes made it such.

And following this logic of part-time ignorance we should say that a wolf never wishes to cast a first vote to anyone (as it might be a start of a bandwaggon) which clearly is contrary to the evidence in WW...

Please people, stop being wise after the fact and even try to see it from the point of view of one who actually was there in the end. I didn't know the things you and I know now back then. And Spawn didn't know. And I believe Beornómien didn't. About Voloin I'm not so sure, but that's another matter.

Sorry. I'm getting a bit frustrated with this off-focus discussion.

If you wish, spend your whole Day speculating how I'm such a stupid villain who tries to get especially Eomi to be lynched for whatever reason and with whatever cost as far as not to play it safe instead wisely. Consider this.

If you, on the other hand think I was trying to protect Kathin or / and Glóanna, be my guests and lynch them. They're at the top of my list still (I'll make the rest of my points - as I think I have some new ones too - after I get some sleep).

Originally Posted by Durelin

Nogrod is seeming a little defensive...but right now I can believe that it is due to what Boro has pointed out

If it were just Nori88 ... What else have people been talking about toDay?

[Durelin]

Ah, I forgot, Noggy. People have been so quiet. No wonder you're upset!

In truth, my suspect list:

Volo
Kath
Valier or Lommy...tied for the number three spot.

Kath is just bothering me, and I'm not sure why.

This in particular, though it seems (and very likely might be) trivial:

Originally Posted by Kath

You made fun of the idea that the baddies and Twins had been chosen because their names rhymed, which I'm pretty sure no one else had. That was a bit of Day 1 nonsense but it was still good to see that someone knew it was nonsense.

Now, Kath is very smart. And she herself mentions "Day 1 nonsense." Surely she didn't really think everyone who mentioned the whole rhyming thing was being serious? Personally I can't see how anyone could think anyone was serious about that.


And then there's this:

Originally Posted by Kath

Good to see someone focusing on why spawn was killed, Holby. I was about to ask why no one had yet.

And then she does her lengthy Spawn analysis...hours later, other than that, all she's done is poke Nogrod a few times, perhaps just testing the waters (some very specific waters), maybe trying to get him to slip up, either to out him as a Wolf, or, I think more likely, to get him to incriminate himself.

But back to that quote in particular... Why does she want to look so closely at why Spawn was killed? It's the first Wolf kill pick...Day 1 was prime Wolfing time (pretty much as usual). Spawn was innocent...I think that's plenty enough reason for her to get picked by the wolves, and then there's the fact that she can analyze and all that. Why spend so much time looking for a trail on the first kill?

Distraction from anything worthwhile. Not pointing to anyone specific while still appearing quite helpful.

Maybe (and quite likely) I am reading more into these things than I should, but...whatever. Like there's such a thing in this crazy world with Werewolves, anyway.

Plus, the Kath and Volo connection is a good possibility.

But...why make it so obvious? I still feel like Volo is very likely not innocent...or Kath very likely isn't. But I can't say that both likely are at all. I'm actually sensing a Fenris Wolf. If Volo is a wolf, I'm pretty tempted to say that proves Kath innocent. Is it possible Volo is setting us up for his lynching, and pointing us in a nice wrong direction?

And is one of his Wolfish pals sitting back and laughing as they help the village hone in on him?

Speaking of reading too much into things... I'm going to go for a while, and come back with my mind refreshed...hopefully. I'll have to vote in just a few hours, unfortunately.

[Kitanna]

I'm feeling quite under the weather and will turn in soon. I will probably get on about a half an hour before day ends, but that will have me rushing to vote before deadline. So I cast my vote now in case I sleep through the end of day or I get on with no time to speak and comment properly.

Volo and Lommy have me the most worried. I have stated more than once that Volo seemed to be steering away from Kath, trying to state her innocence. I find it a rather reckless move, but a cunning one at the same time. There is something unsettling in his first post (mainly what was said about Rune). There's something that feels wrong. He has been helpful, but some of his posts have seemed "just helpful enough" to make him appear as an innocent to all eyes. And in his last post of yesterday he tried to get the last voters to either vote for Eomer or myself (a cross-post with the last votes for Eomer I believe), that post looks very odd given its nature of trying to help Kath. In all that I'm not sure what to say about Kath.

Lommy seems slightly more innocent. She went back and forth on her feelings toward Eomer and Kath. I'm surprised she voted for Eomer. The way I look at her vote and the posts leading up to it, it seemed like she was being pressured to do so by various other posters. That eases my mind about her, but not enough to completely remove her from my suspect list. I will continue to watch her closely.

For my vote:

++ Volo

[Kitanna]

I am back to continue looking through Eomer's voters.

Volo started today with a cite of one of Nogrod's posts about Eomer. One that may have led Volo to vote Eomer yesterday, not sure. He also continues his defense of Kath. Then he says this:

His suspicion of Eomi is a mistake, but I'm the last one who can blame for that, except for the fact that it was probably Runi who started seriously talking about Eomi being guilty, here. I wouldn't go as far as voting him, Duriel just is scarier.

I'm not entirely sure how to take this. There's something in his wording that worries me. I can't quite put my finger on it yet...

Moving on, Nogrod was the next voter for Eomer. The first he really mentions any worry over Eomer is when he says:

Orilin and Eomi have seemingly left the house for toDay and not left a lot to be said of them. That I find a bit worrysome.

in post 61. His next post addresses Eomer's Day 1 behavior post. In Nogrod's post 66 he goes into detail about why Eomer is making him worried. This is the same post Volo used at the beginning of the today. He says he finds Eomer's posts fishy and wonders what Eomer is trying to accomplish. He looks at other possible folks he suspects, but he keeps on Eomer.

Then I'm pretty unsettled with Orilin and Eomi. Both have been extremely careful. A bit too careful to my taste. I have made a few notes about Eomi just earlier and will take a look at Orilin soon to see if I can add anything of value that has not been said already.

He waits until late to vote. That seems to be a normal thing for Nogrod though. His vote did tie Eomer with me.

Spawn voted next, but seeing as her innocence is proven I will move on to Lommy. She says that Nogrod is flip-floppy, but also says he is most likely just staying in character. In the same post she says she will probably not vote for Eomer (Spawn, Menel, Volo are included there as well as a reluctance toward Boromir, Nogrod, and Farael). Her next post points to Kath.

One thing in Kath's behaviour rings my alarms.

Really. That sounds very much like a wolfish "I-say-something-good-of-someone-just-for-the-sake-of-saying-good-of-somebody" -comment, since if you take a closer look at my post, what "good points" I can possibly have there? Those were the few first things crossing my mind after reading the thread. The post consist of crying over dead animals, ridiculing rhyme-patterns, making some jokes/corrections about bears and penguins, making one point (though not even a very incrimintaing one) against Nogrod, agreeing about Kitanna seeming suspicious without adding anything new about her, naming a few innocentish people and forbidding people to steal honey. What on earth are the "good points" over there, I wonder.

Next she says Nogrod has some good points about the fishiness of Eomer. In the same post she mentions feeling uneasy about Menel. Next she says she'll probably vote for me or Kath unless she uncovers something about us rereading our posts.

I'm quite at loss. Kathin and Glóanna don't seem as suspicious to me as they seemed before (though I still think they're both a bit suspicious), but I don't particularly suspect anyone else either.

Finally she votes for Eomer. And I'm wondering why. She thought he was a bit fishy, but a few of her last votes indicated she wasn't so suspicious to vote for him, unless I am missing something there. Her vote post said this:

Well, then: Glóanna has contributed more than Eomi.

++Eomi

I'm not sure what knocked Kath off of that completely and that I find unsettling.

Of the three voters of Eomer that live I actually find Volo the most suspicious. He seems to try to steer voting away from Kath. Such action can be taken in a few ways. Most notably to my mind is an attempt to gain the trust of an innocent.
The voter I find the next most suspicious is Lommy. At first she spoke a little of Eomer, but dropped him in favor of Kath and myself and then in her last post of the day had dropped Kath and voted Eomer. A bit baffling to me.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Menel

Durelin:
If Volo was a wolf and went after dancing spawn because he suspected her of being a Twin, I doubt he'd mention his thoughts that led to the killing unless he was trying to double-bluff.

Yep, that's why I'm not putting much worth in that. Still, it's a nice, simple double bluff, so it's always possible.

I agree with Valier about Rune's behavior, and Nogrod and Kath on Volo's behavior: they're being too practical for my tastes. Practicality will get us nowhere! Too bad we can't lynch them together.

Valier's behavior, though I perfectly understand time constraints, is also making me wary. The "I say this, I say this...but I gotta go" routine...it is likely true, but I must say, it comes across as an effort to seem distracted, which is a good, simple tactic to keep yourself looking innocent. A wolf has something to lose...an ordinary villager may not want to die, but, it's not the same. So appearing distracted rather than focused points toward innocence. Yes, yes, so my suspicion of her is all based on her "distracted-ness" seeming forced. Lynch her.


Question, Valier:

Originally Posted by Val

Also Menel for mentioning about Volo.

What do you mean, exactly? Sorry, I'm just slightly confused by that. You think Menel to be innocent because he pointed out that he thinks Volo to be more likely innocent than not?

Nogrod is seeming a little defensive...but right now I can believe that it is due to what Boro has pointed out: if Nogrod is innocent, he is quite into actively helping the village, and so more adverse to having his life threatened than some of us. And though the wolves are certainly adverse to it, they're much less likely to show it. Still, might as well lynch him, to be on the safe side.

Menel, I'm very confused by your logic. I don't like that. Lynch!

Ang is being shifty. But he's Ang. But he's shifty. Lynch him.

Boro is like Boro-lite these days. I hate "diet foods." Lynch.

Kath is Kath, but seems eager to find fault with Nogrod...he'd make a very dangerous wolf, though, so I can see why she would do that. She'd make an equally dangerous wolf, though. Lynch her.

Holby seems sensible, though for a bit there I forgot she was playing. But then it's only Day 2 after a pretty quiet Day 1, and I can't say I've fully memorized the list yet... Let's make it easier for me and lynch her.

I find it interesting how, though there were several people with the "oh, yeah, look at Kitanna all guilty over there" thing going on yesterDay, but I haven't heard a peep about her today. Funny thing about Day Ones, I suppose. She's nearly as shifty as Ang, though, which means I can't make any hasty judgments or assumptions about her. Curses. Can we lynch her anyway?

Farael's scaring me. I forgot he was playing, too. Lynch.

Lommy's vote makes her suspicious to me. But really, her vote is no more suspicious than Dancing Spawn's... I wish we could hear more from her, as she is very helpful when innocent, but I know that is difficult... And I also know she's very dangerous when evil. Lynch before it's too late?

Nilp wasn't here to vote for himself on Day 1. Let's help him out toDay. Lnycheth.

So...did I miss anyone?

[Nogrod]

Just a couple of thoughts before I go to sleep. (I started this before I made my last post but decided to post this in whole)

It may be one of the lynchers of Eomi was a wolf. It goes quite without saying if you look at basic random probabilities of any collection of four dwarves (wizards, hobbits, skinchanger Beornings). Those pressing on that fact and not noticing any other possibilities I still find a bit dubious then as I can't see any possible reason for any wolf to get it's furry claws involved in such an open matter. As you can see, almost no one has remade the suspicions on Kathin or Glóanna toDay because all this concentration on the last Day's last moments... Good for them if they're furry indeed.

Most of us have generation-old knowledge and experience of these things and any sane wolf among us would avoid that kind of publicity as it's just the same for them who of us innocents gets killed. Why would a wolf wish to kill Eomi last Night, I mean so desperately as to start a campaign or trying openly to make it happen? Why? Look at what has happened to me as I was the first to actually suggest there was something fishy in Eomi's posts yesterDay! (some others had suspected him too earlier but only vaguely so far) Please give me a bit more credit... Were I a wolf I would have voted conveniently for Glóanna or Kathin about an hour before the deadline (were they innocents) as I had had some points against them earlier and just watched the things unfold with a grin.

Of Eomi-voters Spawn was innocent (and had she not died the vultures lead by the wolves would have been on her toDay as it is so suspicious to be on the third place in a waggon). Beornómien feels innocent to me with her openly displayed frustration and angst in the last moments. That kind of gave me the assurance, at least for a while now. Voloin I'm a bit concerned though, as I've already said.

So back to the tracks then?

Kathin has been more than happy to try and shift the focus from the suspicions on her yesterDay to me with almost one-sided fervour. And she has been succesful, I must say. Look at her posts from this point of view and see for yourselves.

Glóanna's guilt I was doubting a bit in the end of yesterDay and now I see her even less guilty. She might be pulling it and I wouldn't be surprised for it, but she's not my top suspect right now.

Nori88 I believe was testing early in the Day and I wouldn't go on lynching him. As I said, as long as the Seer is alive I'm inclined to trust him...

Mr. Anguirelshield I'd be watching. The points made by Nori88 late yesterDay (comparing to the Valier-story) are noteworthy. Also his happiness to make something like a last call yeasterDay to say he was unhappy with Eomi gone before he was declared innocent bears notifying. How did he know he was innocent? He can say he didn't know it, but why did he declare it? To look good?

Valier the Grey is beginning to give me the creeps also. So little and so in haste. She could pull that and laugh later... I know it.

Menel-hobbit seems to be also one who is happy to join any promising bandwaggon of suspicion to make the discussion stay on the wrong tracks. I do not like the way he interacts here. Too safe and too calculated...

Obviously all of these can not be wolves. But some of them I'm sure are.

EDIT: X'd with Glóanna

[Anguirel]

Everyone, I have suffered various communication woes. I'm sorry I haven't been that helpful so far, and hope to triumphantly re-engage after some sleep. I do have thoughts and will attempt to detail them at length on my return, including an explanation of my conduct vis a vis Dori88.

At first sight that Voloin case looks quite interesting, incidentally.

[Meneltarmacil]

Durelin:
If Volo was a wolf and went after dancing spawn because he suspected her of being a Twin, I doubt he'd mention his thoughts that led to the killing unless he was trying to double-bluff.

Now if anyone thinks I'm trying to say Volo is completely innocent, that isn't the case. It is possible that he's a wolf; however, he is not at the top of my list.

[Valier]

I agree with menel on this. I also looked at who mentioned the twins yesterday and noticed Spawn's first post. Volo mentioning it makes me think he is innocent at the moment. Also Menel for mentioning about Volo.
Boro seems fairly normal to me as of now and I will not vote for him.

People who have come to my mind as suspicious are Rune...he seems more helpful then normal, but we will see....Nogrod...I have been fooled before by a bad Nog and I am getting that feeling now. Farael also can be very sneaky.

Sorry but I haven't quite got a handle on everyone else yet so it's back to reading.