WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Thinlómien]

My philosophy teacher deserves to be assigned to the Shire! She said we don't need to be present in the lessons today if we hand her our assignments on Thursday. How could she know I was in the mist of a heated ww-game?

I know why I'm convinced of Ang's guilt, but I see you others maybe don't. In the next 2 hours I will be making an angalysis and if, as I assume, I find it incriminating, also a case against him.

[Anguirel]

It's fortunate that I think you a wolf, because a schism between two innocents as loud as us would be a terrible misfortune...

[Anguirel]

I wish to make another of my astonishingly accurate predictions.

Beorn will shortly produce a painfully long "analysis" of everything I've written, in which every joke, insult, defence or attack will be construed as commands to secret accomplices, in which hairs will be split (ho ho) to produce accusations of inconsistency, and whose conclusions I could probably write now, in my sleep.

The rest of the day will then consist in obsessing about whether or not I am guilty. I won't bother to defend myself. An innocent, though quite probably not me, will be hanged in the general confusion.

It would be very nice if for once my prediction didn't come true.

I really wish I were a wolf, because if so I would currently have an ego five times larger than phantom's. But I regretfully insist that that is not the case.

[Anguirel]

And a final point - Beorn, your command of the Anglo-Saxon tongue is remarkable, so please read my quotations that you believe constitute a "flip-flop" with more meticulousness. They do not contradict each other.

One says a frame-up was not the primary purpose - that purpose being to kill a Seer.

The other refers to a frame-up, intentional or unintentional. Even if intentional, I'm certain it was not the primary intent.

I'm sure your grasp of philosophy is up to these elementary concepts, so I think you're attempting to twist my words for your own gain. Beware. On verbal subjects I am at my spikiest.

I do not suspect Volo, by the way, and, sad to say, increasingly have doubts about Durelin. I've taken her innocence too much for granted in the past. However, with such an excellent foe as Miss Beorn to hand I am most unlikely to vote for Durelin.

[Durelin]

[Durelin]

Okay, so I had a humongously long post and I just lost it all.

Screw it.

VOLO IS A WOLF.

Ang is innocent.

I didn't get a dream on Night 1.
I dreamt of Nogrod on Night 2.
I dreamt of Ang on Night 3.
Volo Night 4.

I knew he was a Wolf...wish I had seriously gone after him sooner. I might be dead by now, though, if I had.

I think Menel and Valier are his fellow wolves.

Read over Volo's and their posts now, if you can, knowing he is a Wolf.

Sorry for letting you innocent guys waste time, but I had a myriad of possible plans for toDay, which I had outlined in detail but now lost... Basically, I hoped we could somehow get a Wolf toDay, and then I'd somehow survive the Night. I planned on dreaming of Valier.

Looking at everyone else, though, I actually become more certain that the trio is the most likely. I suppose Holby could fit in there, as I don't think Volo or Menel ever seriously went after her, but... And Menel's going after Rune could have been an attempt to distance himself from him.

I think Val's silence today except for her one supposed to look helpful but really more like an attempt to get the Seer to slip up or to out themselves is much more incriminating than Holby's silence.

The Menel and Volo connections sometimes seem too obvious to me, but hello...all three Wolves are still alive! And personally I think it's because of overthinking. Re-read some of my earlier stuff for more on that if you need to. Or just start reading over the likely three's posts...now there's a better idea.

Really Menel could even go toDay. His vote for Lommy, way before the deadline, really really bothers me. He doesn't even say he has to vote then. He just does.

I don't know...I've only gotten 3 hours of sleep.

So, Menel, Val, got anything for me? Will you guys finally turn on your Wolf pal? Perhaps you'd like to suggest Volo and I are totally in cahoots? Because we totally are. His attempt earlier toDay to get me lynched that went nowhere...yeah, total attempt to distance himself from me. Not that I've been going after him of and on for a couple days now...

Okay, so, be good...and I'll hopefully be back with more thoughts. Though most of my thoughts are already out there...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Okay, class is over. (That French exam was agonising to see . . . ) Here's the promised DAY 3 analysis--it's disappointing, though.

One can group the voters into three groups: the Kath bandwaggon, the duelists's votes, and . . . miscellaneous. I think it's not a far-fetched to imagine a Wolf in each group.

Under the first group we have Durelin, Valier, and Lommy. To say something about the victim, Kath was a bit suspicious to begin with, but his biased analysis of Nogrod (qq.v. 213, 218) was the nail that cost the kingdom (or something like that).

Durelin's reason for voting (q.v. 219) was sound. GOING HOTLY AFTER SOMEONE WITHOUT CIRCUMSPECTION AT A CRITICAL PHASE OF THE GAME IS A BAD MOVE (a warning to all out there, even myself.) I see little to be suspicious of her at the moment.

Valier accepted the arguments set forth at face-value (q.v. 230.) Quite suspicious, and added to that she throws suspicion at me out of nowhere, alluding to my lack of sensible posts.

Lommy's vote lacks reasoning (I did try looking for one, but apparently she believed Boromir 'has good points, especially that one about Kath.' (q.v. 234) In the same post she answers Boro's suspicion of her. Interesting . . .

Also, she trusts a wolf-Menel to be able to reveal himself easier. Perhaps, it can be read to mean that if Menel is lynched and turns out to be furry, she can get credit for it. Hmmm . . .

Next, the 'duel'-voters:

Menel's reason to vote for Rune (q.v. 207) is rather feeble, and it has been even more weakened due to Nogrod's innocence, yet he holds on to it toDAY until Durelin tells him that his analysis of Lommy makes more sense--see 277 then read on to the bottom of the page.

Whoa.

Ang posted this gem (239) which made him suspicious of Nogrod. Although he ended up wrong, he seems to think of nothing but the good of this village. (All hail the King under the Mountain!)

Nilp: I still think Volo is fanged. But hey, I'm expanding my horizons.

Now, the others. (Sorry.)

Holby seized on Lommy's strange vote for Eomer back in DAY 1. (q.v. 233)

Rune's casus voting (q.v. 238) makes me scratch my head. And a bit uneasy . . .

Volo didn't vote. Maybe his furry friends lectured him not to vote rashly.

Now, what have I learned from this? Lommy and Menel feels hairy, but if they are two of the Wolves I find their tactic strange. They're trying to get each other killed! Then again, a wolf-Menel back in WWIX did the same thing with Shelob, and they won that game with their numbers intact. (A little history; it makes Menel look all the more dangerous to me.)

Who could the third Wolf be? Rune? Valier? Volo?!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Haha, I was right! Curse you, fiend! Eat whatever form of execution we can scrounge up!

++Volo

[Thinlómien]

I can't believe this! I was so convinced of Ang's guilt. Holy cow. I don't honestly know what to think.

Well, I'll believe Durelin, I think. Of course she might be a wolf, but I don't think it very probable. And if she was one, we'd know it tomorrow, and we wouldn't be even doomed yet.

Uh-oh. I stand corrected about Ang... I'm just baffled. He was so guilty-ish. Well, I guess I must apologise for a rather fierce attack...

Volo a wolf... Well, that's news. No offense, but he's clearly outdone his ancestors both in deception and in making good points by far.

++VOLO

Good work Volo, I'm glad we had Durelin. Well done, Durelin, catching a wolf. Our situation looks better now.

I find it still so diffcult to understand Ang's not guilty... How could I have been this wrong?!? I mean, it was not generally being wrong, but being convinced and wrong...

Now that Rune has been released of my very faint seer-suspicions I will be focusing in him more than before...

Huh, Ang, you can be quite convincing wolf as an innocent...

[Anguirel]

Blast, blast, blast.

While delivering pink slips to naughty boys as an errand for my Headmaster (don't ask) it occurred to me that Durelin's trust in me probably had a deeper motive than mere suspiciously friendliness. I returned too late.

My apologies, stalwart Orilin, for doubting you. If we could double-lynch I would vote for another suspect and try to bag two wolves, but as it is, I'll get the vote out of the way...

++VOLOIN

I don't believe I let myself get convinced by his "I'm Lestrade" garbage. I was caught because my metaphor was flattered. I also thought his assault on me was too earnestly wrong to be lupine. How mistaken I was.

I think, agonising as it is to read Beorn's reservoir of vitriol, there may be evidence inside it that help us decide about her. And all Voloin's actions should clearly be examined anew.

I'm sorry to have failed you, great Seer; we shall ensure you have a fine burial tomorrow morning...

[Thinlómien]

Day 1
#6 Day one nonsense about his kingship etc. Asks about the twins.
#12 Thanks spawn for information, says "Does this mean, though, that these Twins have not infiltrated the Wolves? I am still somewhat bemused." Surely a wolf would want to be clear about this kind of things, but why ask it one the game thread, I wonder. Maybe spawn was right on this... Mildly defends Menel in an in-character-manner.
#15 More kingship-nonsense. In-character accusation against Farael.
#26 Says that Boro was "flatteringly servile" earlier, says "I would be suspicious, but then, after all, I do deserve it, being the King Under The Mountain and all." Says will probably vote Farael, keeps reasoning in-character. Was he serious? Doesn't like Boro's innocence-declarations and notes that Holby was quick to attack Durelin.
#27 Says good night. Why is he this earnest to point out he's leaving? Why bother? In werewolf people come and go... Maybe he's more nervous than his silky and royal robe implies...
#58 Says Kitanna evades suspicion better as a wolf, wonders her highlighting "this early". Says he's still inclined to vote Farael, wonders that I have not spoken much yet, but thinks there will be a change.
#60 Reacts to rune's vote for Farael. Says he won't vote him unless he really is suspicious. Now, that is reasonable, yes, in a way, but... This makes me feel he deliberatedly wants to vote someone who won't get lynched on Day1. I say that is escaping the responsibilty. And who'd like to do this... A wolf, by any chance?
#68 Says Rune was mistaken about him being about to vote Durelin. Makes an interesting, yet unlikely theory about Rune acting against Durelin. Notes also Holby's and spawn's suspicions of Durelin. Somehow, this strikes me as something one could say against a wolf companion's suspectors... Says that the wolves probably aren't backing each other's suspicions at this phase.
#76 Votes Boro, because he (Boro) suspects him (Ang) (how clever to get away of reataliatory suspicion of one's suspectors by joking about it, certainly could be interpreted as wolvish) and because Boro said "If Gloanna be lynched, I'll be after Lord Anguirelshield and Kath tomorrow." I find it reasonable for Ang to find that suspicious. After all, that kind of behaviour is suspicious.
#78 Jokingly answers spawn's "accusation" that he was not his normal bright self.
#98 Wonders about Volo's flowers. Asks about deadline (just before the deadline) and agrees with me that spawn getting two votes is weird. If he was around this late, why did he vote so early? Anything can happen in a few hours, for example a wolf may slip something very incriminating against him/herself. Anyone who's able should preferably vote as late as they can to catch these. I smell a wolf playing it safe, voting so early.

Day2
#128 Informs of his difficulties in getting online. says he'll be back and that "Voloin case" looks interesting.
#148 Agrees that he tends to vote Boro on day1, explains it's because of past experiences. Repeats his point (the one he had in #76) against Boro. says that it was cruel that Eomer was killed and said if he could (had he saved casting his vote), he would have saved him. His famous you-did-it-wrongs begin. Note his own words about saving casting his vote. Why on earth did he not save it? Says can see Volo's catching and presenting spawn-twin-hint as wolvish, says he suspects him. Says: "It's possible that Dwalin was targetted purely because she'd voted for the lynch-victim and thus left little in the way of a trail. She was also one of the most helpful analysts around, in my view." Wolf or not, he makes quite a lot of sense occasionally. This is one of those points.
#160 Says won't expand the vote list, though he'd like to see Boro there. Replies to me about Durelin's false view about my dangerousness as evil saying it probably isn't incrimintaing. I agree, it isn't, but I wasn't actually suggesting it was. Anguirel seems quite quick to defend Durelin, hmmm.... Says Valier's a bit suspicious and that he's tempted to vote Kitanna.
No vote.

Day 3
#188 Apologises for missing the vote. Notes about Farael's behaviour. advises the seer to stay hidden. Why? Is he trying to seem helpful and trustworthy? Or is he trying to get the seer (who he thinks might have been targeted during the night) to take his/her information to the grave, knowing no one will be protecting the one Farael was protecting the next night? Call Kit "poor Gloanna" and wonders if she was right about Boro being guilty. Expresses suspicion of Boro again... I think it's pretty unfair of him to cry over the lynch yesterday while he himslef said he could vote Kit. Also, the whole Boro-affair seems incriminating. I just see him as trying to attack Boro in the night, and when failing, trying to get him lynched during the day. I see him as desperately wanting to get rid of Boro. maybe Boro seemed seerish... because of his suspicions of Ang?
#190 Says seeing Kit's lasts words as a confession seems suspicious. Based on that suspects me and Nogrod, more him than me, since, in Ang's opinion, eased the way for me to vote Kit. That even wasn't true. My vote-post xed with Nogrod's confession-speculation. Ang could have checked that, did he really have suspicions. But a wolf who has only theatre-suspicions wouldn't maybe check... Wonders if Volo is allied with Boro and/or Noggie, since he says wolves like them are for the seer to catch.
#196 Doesn't want to turn the day to a trial against him as it's "waste of time". Is it, really? Echoes rune's point about Boro's suspicions against him (Ang) aren't very valid. Says: "You can't have it both ways, Nori88 - accuse me of stupidity, but don't accuse me of cunning. " Admits flip-flopping on Kit, says should have defended her properly and voted. What?!? He said he could vote her, and that was the last thing he said about her on day2. admits he could be a cunning wolf. Oh, he must be enjoying this... If you are a wolf, Nori88, you're getting surprisingly hot under the collar - you've been known to behave with more savoir-faire - so I'm willing to grant you a stay of execution. Says: "If you are a wolf, Nori88, you're getting surprisingly hot under the collar - you've been known to behave with more savoir-faire - so I'm willing to grant you a stay of execution." repeats suspicion of a Volo + Boro/Nogrod wolf duo.
#198 Notes that wolves' most deadly weapon is consensus. says Volo and Nogrod encourage defeatism.
#200 Compares himself to Kitanna, saying wonders if shares her fate, (is trying to sound like a martyr, I see) and says is too tired to argue with Boro. Intends to vote Volo and wants to have a look at Holby. Thinks Boro innocent.
#201 Claims he wasn't critical of Kit's lynch. Yes he was, afterwards, though not as strongly as some people let us believe, I admit. Denies spending the morning "pointlessly lamenting the dead". Says will concentrate on Holby and Volo rather than (Boro and Nogrod?).
#203 Asks people not to concentrate on "possibly mutually misguided duelists". I see, he's leaning on the common conception that the bitterest fights in ww take place between to innocents. Quite clever of him.
#205 Wants to inquisit Nogrod. In-character banter with Boro.
#210 Asks Nog questions: Why did he take Kit's words as a confession? Why was he so happy to follow the suspicion consensus? Does he himself thinks he has a lot of power in the village?
#237 Analyses Holby. Cocludes she's innocent, but used by some vocal players, mainly Nogrod. Plans to vote him. Would you like to elaborate, Ang? How and when is she used?
#239 Accuses Nogrod of elitism and criticizes his way of thinking.
#240 Informs when he will vote. Again... Is he nervous?
#242 Says it's quite obvious that wolves went for the seer last night. I agree with him, though.
#244 Says we shouldn't trust the seer too much and partly based on that votes Nogrod. If the wolves killed the seer next night, wouldn't this make him look good... I'm more and more confident he's a wolf, and a clever one...
#250 "Bofgrod and Nori are in a state of flirtatious love-hate I can't bring myself to like. Oh, and as I know this made me so very popular before - I predict Kath is innocent." It's easy predict, if knows all the wolves...

Day 4
#254 Encourages people to speak. Good! At least we agree about something! Says Boro's behaviour yesterday maybe suggested seerdom to the wolves. Says the seer should come out, but on the other hand, shouldn't. In a way that sounds quite suspicious, but I'm not accusing him for that; I'm doing that kind of things all the time! Says: "I don't think that Nori's suspects will necessarily be helpful - a frame-up, intentional or not, is so very likely - but it might be interesting to note that one of his main targets was Meneltarbo." He's intentionally swaying attention from himself, one of boro's main suspects. Tsk, tsk. Also suspects Menel and Rune for suspecting mainly him, Boro and Noggie.
#259 Says wolves don't generally do farme-ups and concludes all the targeted ones this far are thus probably those who look seerish to the wolves. Agreed, that's why you're guilty, dear Ang. Suspects Rune and Volo/me for an alliance against him and thus wolfdom. The three that are easy to make a case against and get lynched. How crafty. Thinks Durelin innocent, and Valier and Nilp maybe too. The three generally trusted ones. How crafty. Says his main suspects are Rune, me and Volo, but Menel worries him too.
#262 Asks Volo to read more carefully. Says every kill frames people. Surprise, surprise. Implies Volo might be mistaken by comparing him to Lestrade. What a wonderful way of telling him he's wrong, doing it that politely and in a friendly way. Masterful job.
#264 Asks Volo to put his pursuit of him (Ang) aside. Replaces Volo with Holby in his suspect list. Trading trust, are we?!? Anguirel, I wound't be surprised if you howled. Thinks Holby suspicious because she thought Noggie and Boro were dueling after they had stopped it in Ang's opinion. Says that Holby, I ( was allied with Nogrod, played the second fiddle in accusing him, nailed Eomer's coffin "early on") and Menel/Rune, can't decide which.

That's everything this far.

That guy really talks too much.

He uses humour as a weapon. It's dangerous. you never know when he's serious and when not, and so he can always say "I was not serious" or "I was serious" afterwards, what looks best for him.

Also, he seems a bit nervous at times. That's not his normal innocent self-like.

I'm convinced he's a wolf. If you're not, after my analysis, consider Boro's death. The wolves probably thought him the seer. Who was Boro's main suspect early on? Ang. He himself says the kill was probably not an intentional frame-up. I bet the wolves were scared of Boro after he had "nailed" Ang.

edit: xed with Angx2 + Dury

[Thinlómien]

Haha, at least the first of your predictions is correct, Ang.

I'm not interested to engage in a verbal contest about meanings of words and sentences with you, Ang, knowing your undeniable skill with words and my broken English. I accept your explanation about that flip-flop. Anyway, I was mistaken, or you were flip-flopping, since I interpreted the "unintentional or not" part as it being possible that Boro's death was an intentional frame-up, whether you meant it so, or not.

Now, schoolwork calls, but I'll be back in a few hours.