WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Boromir88]

Even so, he could be an ordo setting a wolf-trap, rather than a wolf or cobbler.

No I actually am the hunter, if you don't want to believe me that's your own fault.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

No I actually am the hunter, if you don't want to believe me that's your own fault.

Maybe you are, and maybe you aren't.

[Rikae]

Posts by Firefoot:
#1 In character banter, thinks Lommy and Mac should not be trusted “because everyone does”.

#2 Answering Rikae – “they could be great on our side” is a bad reason to trust somebody; we should distrust the people we tend to trust.

#3 If two wolves are clueless, lead wolf could just tell others who they are, rules impossible to enforce.

#4 Her vote for Boro wasn't based on much. Changes vote to Volo because he is too cavalier, defensive and “all over the place.”

#5 Asks why Volo voted for “no reason at all.” Clarifies “trust” statements (don't trust before game begins) Farael's certainty “peculiar”, vague suspicion of Ang. Wonders if Boro could be bluffing, thinks if he was a real hunter the wolves would kill him early.

Several things here don't seem right. Of course trusting or not trusting someone before they post is pointless; I don't think anyone would disagree, but she belabors the point to excess. She thinks Farael is peculiar for acting like Farael, and seems to conveniently forget that we have (had) three rangers who could protect Boro. (Which is, as I see it, one of the most promising things about his revealing himself. If the rangers indeed find each other by protecting the same person, protecting Boro may allow them to do so.)
Still, this isn't especially incriminating, especially since, when I look more closely at Farael, he almost begins to look like he's almost playing a parody of himself, which he wouldn't need to do if he's innocent.

Looking at Rune:

#1 Says he never trusts Mac or Gil.

#2 Thinks one wolf is stronger than normal, instead of two being weaker.

#3 Says Firefoot's advice would have our lists looking like: “distrust: everybody else, trust: me”.

#4 Calls me the “queen of wishful thinking”; doesn't think a lone “weak” wolf would be unable to kill.

#5 Doubts there's a reason for Morm's vote.

#6 Leaving, ignoring Morm.

#7 Defends self from Mac's accusations; posts without substance normal for day 1, no one said much.

#8 Thinks it's odd that Farael is so sure.

#9 Votes Mac because “he pushed my buttons.”

He indeed didn't have much of substance to say. This definitely bears out the “holding something back” sense I had from Rune; but I'm not sure what to make of it. He seems cautious.

Well, that's not much help; I have to leave for a little while but I will try to do a little more analysis before I go to bed.

[Firefoot]

Just one thing:

She thinks Farael is peculiar for acting like Farael,

I have no idea how Farael usually acts. It's been a long time since I've played in a game of WW, and if I ever played in a game with Farael I don't particularly remember it. The only people I really remember are those that I played in several games with.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Sory for the absense these first hours. . .I was talking to a friend.

I somehow mannaged to overlook the post of Boro where he comes out as hunter, so thanks for pointing it out. Now this leaves us with a bit of a dilema, as we have no way of knowing if he is or not.

No matter what it is not likely that he will die during the night. Either because he is a wolf pretending to be a Hunter or because he is a hunter and it would serve the wolfes little purpuse to kill him. For one thing he could take out one of them, plus the longer he stay the more uncertain we will get and the higher chance there is for us to lynch him.

Of course if the dear Nogrod would give us some clear deffinitions of the roles we would have chance of knowing if it is a bluff or not.

pffft personaly I am inclined to belive him, but one can never know and that disturbs me.

[Gil-Galad]

The ket to surviving is to strike a balance, to be un-eventful to the wolves so they don't kill you and to not raise suspicion so the vilalgers do not gang up on you

and seeing how the "trust nobody but yourself" way of thinking is starting to take affect, this is the simple way of staying alive, make everyone happy.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Sory for the absense these first hours. . .I was talking to a friend.

I somehow mannaged to overlook the post of Boro where he comes out as hunter, so thanks for pointing it out. Now this leaves us with a bit of a dilema, as we have no way of knowing if he is or not.

No matter what it is not likely that he will die during the night. Either because he is a wolf pretending to be a Hunter or because he is a hunter and it would serve the wolfes little purpuse to kill him. For one thing he could take out one of them, plus the longer he stay the more uncertain we will get and the higher chance there is for us to lynch him.

Of course if the dear Nogrod would give us some clear deffinitions of the roles we would have chance of knowing if it is a bluff or not.

pffft personaly I am inclined to belive him, but one can never know and that disturbs me.

Honestly my first vote for Rune was more or less in jest, it could have just as easily been for Kath. However, I've decided not to over analyze things anymore and lately it has served me well.

Rune's post above really strikes me as contrived and insincere. I just don't seem to believe much of what was written and who would lie?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Yes that is right Morm, I only write things I do not belive. . . .I can honestly say that I did not see Boro's, post before it was linked and what I wrote was my emidiate thoughts on the subject.

anyways, this is totaly unimportant and not a sign of suspicion, but there was a part of your post I did not understand.

Originally Posted by Mormegil

However, I've decided not to over analyze things anymore and lately it has served me well.

What did you mean by this, I cannot see the conection between this and what you said about voting me and I am just wondering if I missed something. (I hate not knowing what people talk about)

[Firefoot]

So here's my thoughts on everyone right now. It's mostly just reactions and feelings rather than summaries and facts, so most of this isn't backed up by much. But I went back through and read all of everyone's posts, and this is where I'm at.

Rikae – I am not at all comfortable with Rikae. She says all the right things – and maybe that’s why I’m not comfortable. Maybe it has something to do with the way I perceive the tone of her posts – this quote in particular stood out to me.

Roa, is it such a terrible thing that I prefer not to jump in, in the early hours of day one, with baseless accusations? It's always been my feeling that it's a good idea to spread suspicion around a little on day one, just to see how people react. As for good wolves also being good villagers, that should be obvious; a strong player is usually a strong player across the board. I was just saying I don't think we should lynch the ones we started the game fearing until they have given us some posts to analyse.

It’s definitely defensive, but not assertively so. It takes more of a “poor me” tone, especially that first sentence.

Thinlómien – I don’t have much of an opinion on her at this point, mostly because she doesn’t have very many posts yet. The word I would use to describe her is “happy” – or maybe “light-hearted” would be better… her first couple of posts anyway. I’ll go back and look at what others said about her, but she doesn’t seem all that suspicious to me.

Kath – I’m feeling pretty comfortable with Kath right now. Her points seem logical and honest and I can see where she’s coming from.

Rune – He has posted rather frequently but never at length, and this has been pointed out as possibly being wolvish. I might argue, however, that “posting a lot without saying a lot” is a better indicator of wolvishness when the posts are longer and appear more substantial. Rune seems to be taking the position of a passive responder rather than trying to move things along… which could be contrived as “flying under the radar.” (You know, for such a common cliché in this game, it really is anachronistic… ) I’m in the middle with Rune, possibly leaning innocent.

Boromir88 – I’ve already stated my thoughts on Boromir. Basically, I don’t think that we should lynch him.

Mithalwen – I don’t see much that’s suspicious at all about Mithalwen right now.

Lalwendë – She seems to be very opinionated, which I would expect of her. However, she doesn’t seem to be trying at all to be subtle or trying to shift blame around, and her comments generally seem honest. She seems likely to be innocent.

Farael – I’m not particularly comfortable with him either. I still find it rather interesting how he was able to make such a long and in-depth accusation of Lommy when I really don’t think that there’s that much there. If he’s a wolf, he’s certainly going about it in a loud way… but I’m not convinced he is. Right now I’m inclined to think he’s just a loud innocent, but I’m keeping my eye on him.

Naria - …

Anguirel – I’m inclined to suspect Ang, at least a bit. He always comes across to me as playing a subtler game… he doesn’t make a lot of accusations and tends to throw out logical ideas and theories in a mostly agreeable way. The one thing that struck me about him was that he was the first one to really go after Volo and was the first one to vote for him (at a time when numerous other people had votes), but as the Day drew to a close, he backed off of this suspicion. This to me seems very much like a wolf, basically fobbing his vote off on an innocent (who did, admittedly, appear very wolvish) whom he figured would not be lynched. He’s definitely on my more suspicious list.

Mormegil – There’s not that much out there on Morm. I would guess that his first post which contained a vote for Rune was designed more to get the ball rolling than as a serious vote, but I’m not sure that that means anything. I’m not going to make a decision on him yet.

Eomer – He hasn’t said anything yet that seems particularly suspicious… but I’m certainly not letting him off the hook that easily. He’s way too capable of anything for that.

Durelin – She’s been both logical and consistent so far – I’m not particularly suspicious of her.

Gil-Galad – I don’t really think he’s a wolf. As I said before.

Oy. That's a lot of posts to go through.

Right now Rikae and Anguirel seem to head my list for suspicion, but nothing's set in stone yet, to be sure.

[Durelin]

I think the Boro situation is the least of our worries right now. He's just one of...well, everyone else...each of us is uncertain of. Well, except for those three nasties among us.

Gil is Gil right now and I am inclined to think him innocent.

Well, this is interesting to me...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Why do you think the wolves would go after Mac and Roa? As I mentioned, Mac has great instincts, possibly Roa too - I wouldn't know. So could the wolves have been trying to rid themselves of dangerous players? Killing two such vocal players seems like a bold move; are there any people who are particularly likely to do that sort of thing as wolves?

How about...you?

Talking at moderate length about why the wolves would make a kill without doing annoying (to do, that is), lengthy analyses of their posts... Makes me feel like you're not what you seem.

And why bother apologizing for your mistake when it comes to Celuien? You voted for Volo, approving his lynching. If you really feel the need to apologize, why not apologize for your suspicion of Volo? Just doesn't make much sense to me.

Also, I think you're rather quick to assume the person doing the killing is on our side... Unless I'm missing something (which is quite possible), I don't think we know.

And your votes don't sit right with me. You vote for Ang first. Nice, simple, "random-ish" Day 1 vote. Except...it's Ang, so there's the possibility he'll get lynched anytime, because people think he's shifty. Okay, so he is. Then you switch to Volo after he already has seven votes. A bit much, in my opinion. But nice and safe... You voted for Volo. You were right along with everyone else. Your vote for Ang before doesn't stand out. You don't stand out.

You make a good point about Farael keeping up appearances, though.

Hmm...it worries me that Eomer wasn't even voted for on Day 1... Preposterous!

There are so many quiet people... I can hang around for a little while, but I likely won't be back until just before the deadline after that...it sucks, but it's all I can do. Sorry.