WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Firefoot]

The first thing that caught my eye was how Rikae jumped on Ang at the get-go. He had posted once, and it seems like a pretty harmless post, and all of a sudden Rikae (and Lalwende, actually) are proposing conspiracy theories between him, Gil, Celuien, and Boro (Interestingly enough, those other three are now dead and innocent...), and she votes for him - which I also don't understand since she also says "I'll be back before the deadline." Which she was, at which point she switched to Volo - which seemed almost like a knee-jerk reaction. She repeated this on Day 2 - vote early, come back and change the vote. In fact, this could have ended badly since she did not have a vote to change when Durelin declared herself. If Rikae was a wolf, this would actually be a clever strategy - no one would be able to blame her for not changing a vote that she wouldn't want to change anyway.

I don't notice anything interesting about Ang until he starts campaigning against Volo. I still think that this post of his was rather logical... except that I don't really think that Volo's posts before Ang's post are all that suspicious - it's the ones that came after. But his accusation wouldn't really look so suspicious if not for the fact that he decided Volo really wasn't that suspicious after all when he started attracting more votes.

Okay, this kind of died as I started looking at posts and not writing anything down. But one thing I did notice was that while Rikae had been keeping up a pretty steady suspicion for Ang until about 2/3 of the way through yesterDay, Ang hardly mentions her at all, and when he does go through everyone, he's pretty vague about her.

I'm starting to wonder if I'm not trying to force it here. I'm not sure anymore that my suspcions of Ang are founded. Rikae, I'm still not sure about. There's not a lot of concrete evidence; it's mostly gut feeling - and those can be dangerous, both to ignore and to follow.

[Durelin]

Durelin is in a very cozy position right now; immune from lynching and most likely protected by a ranger. It was very coincidental, too, the way two gifteds were up for lynching days one and two! I'm inclined to believe Boro, because of the hinting Mith pointed out (although even that could be contrived), but I'm not at all sure Durelin is what she claims to be.

Cozy my butt... There's only one Ranger left. If the other Ranger protected me last Night, which is certainly possible...I have no protection.

You're the only one who is continually arguing the point that I am not the Ranger. The others are willing to assume because they know that there are three wolves out there, and we have to go on something if we're going to have any hopes of surviving.

If you really are a wolf, which I think you are, you're getting bold, aren't you? And you have every reason to...three of you left...we probably are blind to the other two wolves... What do you have to worry about?

I'll save my vote, though. We need to get a Wolf, and a couple chances to change my mind still might come in handy...

[Durelin]

I'd like to address just a couple more things real quick:

It's interesting how Rikae was so "omg, we need to save her!" toward me yesterDay after I revealed myself, but now toDay, now that morm is dead and found innocent (likely as she knew), she knows it's safe to attack me and stir up doubt...and whether or not you're very certain at all that I really am the Ranger, you have to realize that she is drawing our attention away from Wolf hunting in general.

Okay...so I'm pretty focused on Rikae, too... I'll go look at everyone else, too, though I'm going to keep assuming Boro's innocent.

Also, I'd like to say I really feel stupid for deciding I should vote mormegil. I'm sorry. But everyone seemed to kinda feel like morm was being overlooked...and I wanted to save myself. Yeah, really bad.

I hate wanting to do that, but I'm Gifted. So I feel like I need to help in any way I can.

It sucks.

[Firefoot]

Also, I'd like to say I really feel stupid for deciding I should vote mormegil. I'm sorry. But everyone seemed to kinda feel like morm was being overlooked...and I wanted to save myself. Yeah, really bad.

Everything that happened in that last hour yesterDay was really rushed - kind of like someone hit a panic button. Mormegil was probably a poor decision that we all got rushed into without any proper analysis or thought. I guess we can't really do anything else but move on.

I kind of feel like I'm totally overlooking Lommy right now. There really aren't that many people left in the village, and it seems like a bad idea to be giving anybody a free ride.

I wish there weren't so many of you on the wrong () side of the Atlantic... There aren't enough people around.

[Boromir88]

Durelin is one of the two rangers, there's no doubt in my mind. If somebody is saying since she's still alive that means she could be bluffing and could be a wolf that is simply some flawed thinking.

The Wolves want to keep up their two kills at night as long as possible. If one of the rangers revealed themselves, the wolves probably thought the other ranger would protect her and therefor choose another victim that would be less likely to be protected.

Quite frankly I'm surprised I'm still alive too. But not completely, right now I am probably a bigger danger to the wolves if they kill me than if they keep me alive. As so far I've done complete squat when it comes to lynching a wolf.

Durelin, Thinlo, and Mith all seem innocent. If one of them is a wolf I deserve to be dead. I didn't want to put a lot of 'trust' into everyone, but I feel I have to start to if we have any chance of lynching a wolf here.

That leaves:

Rikae
Farael
Kath
Anguirel
Firefoot
Lalwende

Now Rikae has been one that's got me worried here. Durelin commented the change from saving her to now suspecting her. Also:

Going by the theory that the wolves are eliminating threats (since it's the only theory we have so far), his suspects were:

I don't necessarily agree with that. Rikae, you're trying to look helpful by going through the wolf kills. But that above doesn't sit right...because Gil is not one to be a threat to the wolves.

The wolves started out picking off people who could be potential problems, yet were unlikely to receive protection from the rangers (Roa and Mac)...then last night looks like the wolves didn't want to leave a trail behind. Neither Eomer nor Gil were 'big talkers' yesterday. It looks like these kills were more to cover up their tracks and not give us anything to go on. That whole 'going by this theory since it's the only one we have so far' just doesn't seem right. It looks like your helping by pointing towards the wolf kills, but there's nothing to find, because the wolves killed two people who didn't leave much to go off of.

For that matter, we should look at Rune, he might have known who the wolves were, or they might have known what he was.

Here's another suspicious looking statement. You looked through Gil's and Eomer's posts, but stop at Rune and simply say 'we should look at him he could have known who the wolves were'...but you don't provide anything about Rune's post. Simply you leave it as that, we should look at Rune; and do not follow through.

I have a feeling either Firefoot or Lalwende is a wolf. Either Firefoot is onto something with Lalwende (I mean Firefoot has said some convincing stuff against Lal), or seeing as the wolves are getting closer to victory they are becoming more bold and starting to throw easy lynch victims under the train. So far, I think Lal is more likely the wolf.

Another thing about Lal is she makes this remark about Mith:

Mithalwen seems quite taciturn and snappy compared to yesterday.

But I think I can say Lal has been quite snappy in some situations herself!

This has already gotten quite long, and boy has it gotten late here. I'll continue with Farael, Kath, and Anguirel later this morning.

[Anguirel]

The name's Anguirel. Anguirel the Merry.

In darkness or in light, I have a license to kill.

Okay, everyone. The golden dagger is mine. Rule me out of the running along with Boro and (for now) Durelin. I want our Rangers to try and keep me alive for as many nights as possible, probably just the next one - but I will also kill by day. Probably including today. My kills will be uninfluenced by democracy and driven by my judgement and (a little) of those I trust.

I'm very sorry about Celuien. I thought she was a little too nice and too bandwagon-prone. You'll notice I killed her as painlessly as possible. I didn't like going for her. And the disastrous aftermath...

Yesterday, I chose very carfully; I was also considering picking Kath or Lal, but there's a very grim history around Hunterish types killing Kath, which made me superstitious, and I just wasn't sure about Lal.

I analysed Rikae and Kath for my own benefit:

CASE 1 – RIKAE

1-optimistic, focussed, not sure she would recognise Lommy as evil
2-role question
3-fears bold wolf. Thinks Roa, though, might be uncontroversial wolf. Doesn’t trust Rune or Cel.
4-role speculation
5-Defends relative lack of impetuosity. Against lynching villagers just because. Confused by dynamic. Doesn’t suspect Boro or Cel. Suspects me, Rune, Roa. Votes me.
6-Is insulted by, and suspects, Volo.
7-Votes for him. Would a wolf exploit emotion like this? A low tactic.
8-Pally with Mith (probably not wolves together, then)
9-Banter with Durelin

10-Suspected Cel. Why say so? To appear honest? Suspected Firefoot. Thought Boro might be bluffing. Rune reticent. Gil confusing, not wolfish. I merit some analysis because of my Volo case. Wonders why wolves killed those two.
11-Banter with Farael
12-Doubts Boromir. Suspicious when reiterated?
13 Suspects Firefoot and Farael. Still thinks Rune holds something back.
14-Explains defensiveness. Suspects Morm. Comes out in favour of Gil’s innocence. Suspects me – too casual, hiding.
15-Wasn’t apologising. Defends vote.
16-Claims to have been defending Boro.
17-Most suspicious – me, Farael, morm.
18-Role talk. Revenge-suspects Durelin. Suspects and votes morm. Suggests Seer.
19. Agrees with me – no Seer
20. Comes back, votes Durelin
21. Out of votes – would change
22. Asks who’s dead

Quite consistent, with some odd exceptions.

CASE 3 – KATH

1-Talk about Hunter role. Banter about suspicion. Wonders about the gallup.
2-Pleased Gil is involved but thinks something’s up. Pleased about Lommy for facile reasons. On the fence about Roa. Bit suspicious of Lal. Things morm usual and Boro strange. Votes Boro (so is probably not a Werewolf if Firefoot is).
3-Role talk – thinks there might be a Seer. Hasty summary leaves out Rune and Firefoot, probably by accident. Notably defends Lal. Suspects a lot of people.
4-Missing Firefoot was an accident. So was Rune. Suspects Firefoot most. Doesn’t suspect me or Durelin.
5-Votes Firefoot.

Suspicious. But it’s pretty bad karma to kill Kath as a “hunter”. I’d rather go for who she defended, Lalwende, or for Rune.


I still think Kath's propensity to defend Lalwende is very interesting.

I also analysed Eomer, and ended up thinking he was a Ranger. But that's irrelevant now.

[Lalwendë]

Now this is worrying. We have three people claiming to have special roles and seven who have said nothing. Only one more Ranger remains undeclared. If our Ranger does declare it will mean we have four 'specials', and then three wolves and three ordos and it will remain for the last six to slug it out. Unless in desperate circumstances we get everyone claiming to be the last Ranger? Who's going to believe the real ranger now? It's not the best circumstance to be caught in. I wouldn't want to say anything because nobody would believe me. And what's even worse is that when Night comes again there are just not enough Rangers to mount a defence now

Or has something very, very wrong happened? We've gone on all this time believing this or that person just has to be in a special role, together with convictions that certain villagers just have to be innocent and tied ourselves in knots and now got to this impossible situation. If we're putting our trust in the wrong people then we've been duped, big time. It would be a very clever strategy for wolves to force a situation where they were being suspected and then to throw in a 'reveal' at the last minute, not least as it would also get the Real specials panicking and 'revealing' and then none of us know where we are.