Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Nogrod]

Please Mith, if you have any fresh ideas tell us... although I know the history of last minute "fresh ideas" as they tend to turn out into disasters more often than not if they are taken in at last minutes.

[Lalaith]

Ok Rikae, I'll buy what you've said. Now, given you've had a dream already, tell us what you've seen. In your opinion, is it ok to switch to Garin?

[Lalaith]

Actually sorry, arrgh, what was I thinking.

The Ranger will protect you tonight and then the wolves will kill the known innocent. DON'T tell us the known innocent if you have one.

[Roa_Aoife]

Certainly, Rikae shouldn't reveal anything until Tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

I think Mänwe might be more a cobbler than Garin a were-faithful. But hard to say...

[Roa_Aoife]

Garin voters

TGWBS - first vote, put Garin in the running
Kitanna - second, put Garin in second
Rune - third, tied Garin with Rikae
Holby - fourth, tied Garin with Rikae
Durelin - fifth, put Garin in lead
Roa - sixth, no real impact on lynch

Holby's dead, and I can't analyze myself. So...

TGWBS, Day 1

1st post - doesn't like Day 1 banter, says innocents tend to get lynched for "spurious" evidence, banter with Kath, points out that suspicion tends to fall on the loud, lists the quiet, questions Nogrod, SPM, and Roa for Glirdan suspicion

2nd post - more banter with Kath, clarifies that the "prophesy" was a joke, and truly suspects for quietness

(For someone who says he doesn't like the banter, he's engaging in it quite a bit.)

3rd post - Accepts SPM's explanation for Glirdan, also retracts question to Roa, wonders why Durelin is worried about Glirdan but not Kath, also asks Nogord why he picked out Glirdan and not Kath, voting record, feelings on villagers: Innocent- Nogrod, SPM; Faithful- Mith, Manwe, Rikae; Slightly suspicious- Glirdan, Gil-galad, The Might; Wants to hear more from mith about gifted question, wants Rikae to explain her vote, wants Gil to explain his hunches

(Seems straight forward, but I wonder why he keeps hinting towards Kath. Also, with the voting record and lists, it feels like he's trying to beef up his post and make it seem more substantial than it really is.)

4th post - Disagrees with Holby, says mith's statement is we have to judge her on since it's all she's said

5th post - Asks Garin why he voted for Nogrod, thinks the only reason is, "If he were faithful, he would be dangerous."

6th post - tells Rikae he couldn't find her notice on the Admin thread, isn't convinced of either Rikae's or Mith's evidence, says Garin stands out the most, says we better get rid of him, Votes Garin, leaves for the Day

(Something about this last post seems... forced somehow. In fact, every post he's made is filled with the air of finality that I just don't like.)

Kitanna next....

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna, Day 1

1st post - most of her thoughts have been stated by others, willing to over look Glirdan's first post if he can come up with some substance later, leaves

2nd post - doesn't understand Manwe's logic, thinks he just randomly grouped three other people with Nogrod, not much explanation for it

3rd post - suggest Manwe alleviates mistrust with some explanation, corrects him about her thoughts on Glirdan

4th post - Has only had the chance to skim, and Rikae's vote is the only thing of interest

(What happened with Manwe? Did she just drop it? Why?)

5th vote - Can see Rikae's logic for voting Manwe, but is concerned about the timing, hopes Rikae will come back, accepts Manwe's response to her questions, feels better about him, says Glirdan seemed normal, but Nogrod jumped on it as alienated from the village, points out that no one mentioned Gil-galad's post, not sure she'd label Manwe as harsh, finds Garin's vote for Nogrod and then switch to Rikae very odd, has to leave for class, Votes Garin, says his vote for Nogrod was just odd.

(This post bothers me. She says she can understand why Rikae voted for Manwe, but she seems content to exonerate him all together. A case of "a row just blowing over," as someone else said. Also, she too accused Nogrod of "jumping on" Glirdan. I'm starting to suspect a triad between SPM, Manwe, and Kitanna. The question is, who's the fourth?)

Next Rune, and then Durelin, and then I'll be leaving for the night (RL), I think.

[Roa_Aoife]

Side note: w00t! Fifth page!

[the guy who be short]

Brinniel has only posted 4 times.

Post 44 doesn't say much. She defends Manwe a little, attacks Hookbill a little, but that's it really. Not much to go on.

Post 49 continues in this way. She says she doesn't suspect anybody.

Post 85 votes for Rikae and suspects Garin. Now... I may be biased here, having suspected both these people yesterDay, but the logic seems sound to me. Garin's vote-switching was odd. Rikae's sudden vote was odd. However, perhaps Brinniel was merely latching onto these ideas which had already been formulated by others.

Post 181, today, ever-so-mildly accuses Hookbill.

I suppose what worries most about Brinniel is that she says so incredibly little. Her posts are scarce and scanty. It's hard to form an opinion about such a person, which is what worries me - it's so easy to avoid attention.

Potential vote from me. First, I will also analyse Mith, my last personal suspect.

[Roa_Aoife]

*sigh* So you're content to ignore me. Perhaps you are in this with Rikae, I don't know, but someone please listen instead of just blindly accepting her word for this!

I'd do an analysis on Rikae, but I fear it would be useless.

If no one's willing to listen, I'm going to stop talking.

[the guy who be short]

Roa - while others did mildly suspect Lalaith before you, you were the first to put together a case that was actually convincing.

Mithalwen

Post 6 is now infamous - how to tell gifteds from Faithfuls.

Post 67 - Says she's been quiet as she's been away from a computer.

Post 74 - She says she sees nothing odd about Roa. She defends her initial statement about telling gifteds from Faithfuls, stressing that she said she doesn't want the village to force gifteds to out themselves.

Post 87 - says Garin is always weird.

Post 101 - Disagrees with a post by Roa; says the Faithful would not let a gifted live.

Post 104 - Suspects Lalaith for "miscontruing" her post about sorting gifteds from Faithfuls. Also says it's hard to suspect anybody.

Post 112 - Cannot decide whom to vote for.

Post 115 - Says Rikae will be found out if she's lying.


Well, I'm cutting it off there. My entire suspicion of Mith was based on that single first post (which she has defended vehemently). It still doesn't feel right to me, but the rest of what she says seems okay. I'm no longer too worried about her.

[Mänwe]

Durelin I did not specifically say nor was I secretly alluding to analysis being 'wolfish' my intention was only to draw a parallel with what others have said on the 'helpful' issue. That being, the Faithful's may want to appear useful as though they are on the ordo's side. That was my intended meaning. I can see as plain as anyone that analysis is useful.

And on my point on banter, well I admit, my motive was partly one of making a point that it should be part of the game. But, have we not seen Legate's 'mood' toward it. Perhaps he is unable to decipher the banter from the real, he is edgy, and finds it hard to interpret...perhaps making his work as a Faithful harder?

Oh and Roa, I think you missed a part of her post where she then states that she understands my logic for those I chose, whether that helps or not I don't know, just thought i'd add it.

Edited with Roa's post.

[Roa_Aoife]

Rune, Day 1

1st post - Says everything thus far Day 1 nonsense that he cannot be bothered to mention, finds Manwe's case odd, says Manwe is focusing on just Nogrod, which is odd, but understands the question Manwe asks, but doesn't understand why there's so little elaboration on the others, says Jobs were accelerators for making people talk

(I dislike his statement that everything before his post was pretty much useless banter. That was hardly the case. Already, a few theories, suspicions, and questions were being discussed. Why would he want to dimiss those? So that he wouldn't have to comment on them? Also, I still don't know what question Manwe was asking Nogrod that was so important.)

2nd post - is confused by a lot of people, says there's alot of jumpiness, and while he would normally analyze this, he's never played with the people who are the jumpiest, is concerned about Holby's post, thinks Hookbill is innocent

(Way to contribute to the "nonsense." Not much here, except a big "I don't know." Again, what happened to Manwe? Have we found a fourth?)

3rd post - Seconds TGWBS, says Garin's post is a contradiction, thinks he might vote Garin for his post

(latching onto the first suspect who presents himself, but Garin was actung very strangely)

4th post - doesn't like risk level dictating who one votes for

5th post - Says his thoughts are now directed at 5 people: Garin, Manwe, Briniel, Legate, and Holby

(Well, that came out of nowhere. I really wish he'd offer more explanation than one line each. It seems like he's forcing this list to seem less single minded.)

6th post - Is unsure he'll be back in time, wants to vote Legate, doesn't want to spread the vote, Votes Garin

(Again, the suspicion of Legate has very little explanation beyond a feeling, and it seems more like he's forcing it so we don't assume he's really part of this band wagon. Something is off here.)

I was going to do Durelin, but then I remembered that I already got her with the Manwe voters. Anyways, how many people have I analyzed now? And how many does that leave? Rikae, I'd wish you'd tell us who those innocents are (I assume that if you'd found a wolf you'd have told us right away) because it'd make this go faster.

Also, I was curious- does the rule about those who are absent applicable to voting or merely to presence? I ask because Glirdan as yet has only one post and no vote, and I wanted to know if he remains absent for the day whether he will be killed or not.

Honestly, Glirdan, if you don't have more posts than the dead at the end of toDay, I may consider voting for you on Day 3. It's a nuisance to have to wonder about you when we could be focusing on something substantial.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Manwe

Oh and Roa, I think you missed a part of her post where she then states that she understands my logic for those I chose, whether that helps or not I don't know, just thought i'd add it.

Who? Durelin or Legate? And which post? I'd like to correct that, though I still think someone else ought to analyze Legate as well.

[the guy who be short]

Well, I've thought about it a bit, and I don't think a shortlist would work. The wolves would have four votes out of 15, which would be enough to influence others or save a compatriot.

Now something that confuses me about Day 1 is the Nogrod-Roa-SpM triangle. I commented on Nogrod and SpM sparring - a result, I believe, of their both being loud, rather than Faithful. Neither of their cases seems to be based on logic, - SpM accused Nogrod for encouraging people to talk, and Nogrod attacks SpM for making a lot of his statement encouraging people to talk. I feel, as earlier, that they are both innocent.

What interests me in all this is Tar-Miroa. Why did she latch onto Nogrod - something Nogrod himself was wary of? Did she accept SpM's accusation of Nogrod, thus thinking Nogrod was Faithful, and so attack what she thought was an innocent SpM? If so, why? SpM's accusation of Nogrod was not terribly convincing.

I suppose it's not really worth speculating on it. We'll never know; Tar-Miroa won't tell us. And it's not very important anyway.

On to analyses of Lalaith, Brinniel and perhaps Thinlo after that outburst.

[Gil-Galad]

so let me get this straight, Roa is Tar-Miriel(the cobbler) then? or what?


well my vote for Saucey is mainly, as always, that his posts are rather rare at times, he comes in, says a rahter long speech that probably only half of us try to read, then leaves again. i'm not criticizing him for the one post thing, just the big thing that tries to sum everything up, so my vote still stays

[Durelin]

Wow, there were a lot more people around then I thought. I guess I jumped the gun thinking voting Garin was my only option. Argh.

[Mithalwen]

++Lalaith
since Rikae seems safe

[Lalaith]

I'm not at all sure about either Garin or Manwe, I think both too bold for wolvishness. Between the two I'm more inclined to go for Manwe as obviously our seer must be safe.

---HOLBY

+++MANWE