Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Durelin]

Excellent! Yay Ranger!

After I saw that we were losing two of our ranks, and with our Seer already outed, I must say I was even more pessimistic than usual. This has me a little more hopeful, though. But, with four wolves out there, we've got a lot of work to do.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh yes...this is my last day among you. As four of you know already, the ranger protected me last night.

Wait...but...I feel like I'm missing something here. How do you know for certain that the Ranger protected you? It is most likely, because that's playing it safe, but...the Wolves have to be...well, as Nogrod said rather stupid to waste a Night's kill. But, I didn't think anyone was told that they were protected. Then again, I've never been saved.

Why would the wolves choose to risk wasting a nice kill? Is it simply stupidity, or were they that desperate to kill Rikae for some reason?

I guess I might be wasting my time, as there's no way to know. I think Rikae might be right about her voters, though. While it is certainly a possibility, I think the majority of us were suspicious of her, myself included. So with what little time I have I'll try and look over Garin's voters, and also look at those who deviated from the bandwagons. On Day 1, innocent lynchings are extremely probable, so I don't see a reason for a Wolf to put him/herself in the middle of a bandwagon on Day 1. Of course, it is possible we got closer to lynching one of them than we think. Possible, though not probable.

Manwe - Roa's excellent analysis is a great help to us! Looking at a person's behavior point-by-point is extremely helpful, and obviously not all of us are so good at such analysis, or have the time to go through everything. If we live in fear of the Faithful, we will surely die. But perhaps your behavior is now somewhat explained - you just want to stay alive? Understandable...but the Faithful will kill us all if we don't actively try to hunt them down.

Edit: Crossed with Nogrod, Lalaith, Roa. All I can say is that I did not say I had no case for Manwe. I just didn't have a lot to go on him. I don't think I was alone in not having a lot to back my vote.