Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Oh really? Perhaps you can tell us more, Mr Mac the Magician... I wouldn't be surprised to find such a man shapeshifting at night!

I just don't like it when people bemoan that we aren't going to catch a wolf on Day One except by luck, especially when it's still this early one the Day.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I just don't like it when people bemoan that we aren't going to catch a wolf on Day One except by luck, especially when it's still this early one the Day.

I do wholeheartedly agree with Macalaure here. And in fact there are actual possibilities of catching a wolf on Day1 if the village just a) keeps talking and b) keeps talking sensibly (not only the rolestuff). Many a wolf has met their maker in the end of Day1, with reasoned voting... So let's not downplay our chances. I personally tend to put those people higher in my list of suspicions who say we should just trust our luck or vote randomly on Day1. That's what suits the villains best.

I share the view a few here that Roa was just trying to make a reasonable point at a phase of the game where there was basically nothing else to say and thence will look more suspiciously to those who tried to make a case out of it. The problerm with Roa surely is that she would do that as a villain too...

Glirdy then? He looks so bad again... but I would actually hesitate with lynching him once again on Day1 because he looks suspicious. That's what he manages to do everytime.

Also I happen to know that Lommy had no choice but to vote at that time and I don't envy her situation. If you throw judgements over her voting please tell us whom you would have voted on that hour and with what reasons? That doesn't rule out the possibility that Lommy is a baddie who loves her situatiuon where she can vote "safely" everyDay because of the timezones / netaccess -things.

Okay. I'll check the thread again and try to see if there is anything else to say. I need to attend to a meeting soon but will be back to play actively the last three hours or something.

[Nogrod]

With this little posting I can see Roa, Brinniel, Macalaure and Mith speaking in cool and wise ways. It makes me think better of them but at the same time it nags me whether their honeyed lips conceal a terrible secret.

I thought Rikae a bit suspicious based on her reaction to Roa but find her now sharing my slight suspicions of tgwbs. I also thought tgwbs's suspicion of Lommy a bit lupine (see: four points in a list this early in the game - even though the last one was a joke). I do not claim that Lommy is innocent - to me she is a potential werewolf as all you others - but the way tgwbs made his "case" was somewhat worrying. Even if I myself think that wise wolves just sit back and relax on Day1, there is no rule that no wolf should not actively try to steer the voting on Day1. Of course if there was a case that a fellow (thence Glirdy?) was suspected? That could make sense at least on the early game when it's not standing out so clearly. But that is weak indeed.

I'm somewhat confused about Legate at this moment. He speaks a lot of sense there, a lot of nonsense and then somethings that just ring my alarm-bells...

The sixth wizard surely looks pretty odd too, but as someone already noted, it would be a shame to lynch someone for that reason in his first game Day1.

I'll be back, hopefully with something more constructive to say...

EDIT: X'd with Roa

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Something about TGWBS bugs me. He says that Roa's first post is "trying to sound helpful without being helpful", and that phrase immediately jumped out at me. It's become sort of a stock-accusation that's easy to fling around, and doesn't really make sense so early in the game. It seems a little too generalized, and especially bothers me coupled with the suspicion toward Thinlomien for voting early (in my experience, she almost always does, and I think TGWBS knows that).

Firstly, I nowhere stated any suspicious of Thinlomien for voting early. Misrepresentation is a dangerous game to play, Rikae...

As for why I didn't like Roa's post, if I must go into detail to satisfy you, let's go:

She starts off talking about what roles might be in this village, how many wolves, etc. These are all thoughts that the rest of us should already have had and so there is no real point in saying that it's unlikely that there are more the 3 wolves.

She then says we have to be wary of people coming out as gifted because they may just be wolves. She casts doubt on whether we'll have a ranger/seer/hunter at all; I personally can't imagine that the village would be left without the first two at all. She also conveniently says that being uncontested is not proof of being gifted, and that greater proof is required. This strikes me as wolvish; she's striking down any revealed gifted before they even have a chance to reveal themselves.

She says this:

We don't know if we have a ranger though, so if we go a night with out a kill, we cannot assume that a person was protected.

So no kill means that the wolves just decided not to kill anybody? Why not come to the sensible conclusion that no kill = ranger? Why is she trying to make us doubt even this?

So, with that out of the way, we can stop worrying about roles which might not even be here, and just focus on catching wolves.

Which is what we were meant to be doing anyway. That whole post just seems to be filler, so we can see she's said lots of words. The words themselves seem to say little; the little they say, I construe as wolvish.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I also wonder why he wouldn't want a hunter to reveal

The way I see it, a Hunter is more likely to kill an innocent than a wolf. They're also unimportant on the grand scale; a seer can reveal wolves and innocents, a ranger can protect known innocents. A hunter can't really do much.

[Gil-Galad]

i fear i must vote now for i won't make the deadline too...

so today my vote must go to

++Thinlomien

[the guy who be short]

Whom I cross-posted with earlier.

For someone who thinks talking about gifteds is unhelpful, that's aboutall his posts have been. And that, for you people who think Day 1's are useless, is a contradiction.

Very shoddy basis for voting. Both those comments you mentioned (and there were only two) were in response to Mith.

No way helpful? You don't think it's helpful to point out that a wolf could easily hide as a gifted, especially in this game, and that we should be aware of it? Would you rather I wait until Day 3, when someone suddenly says "Wait, I'm a gifted!" and everyone panics and tries to find someone else to vote for?

No. No. And no.

We all know wolves can hide as gifteds, and I've already said I don't think this game is special or magical. I can't see us not having a Seer or Ranger.

Also I'd rather you didn't say anything at all. All that first post has caused is unnecessary speculation; I and others have been forced to reply to it and carry on with this useless role-speculation.

What was I doing? Perhaps you didn't read the full post. I systematically went over the possible roles, established what we could and could not do about them (mostly nothing),

And you don't count that as overspeculation about roles, eh?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ai! Steady now! I think this is going too far unnecessarily. Gnarl, if anyone values my opinion, this speaks for both tgwbs and Roa's innocence - at least concerning this matter, this discussion. tgwbs's defence seems too real, honest, you know what I mean. Roa on the other hand, I think - tgwbs, you might not see it, but - very very much reminds me of the "teacher syndrome". I have experience with it myself when teaching little Orcs, and I think this is just it. I absolutely see your point, tgwbs, but I think Roa just tried to point out something, even if it seemed obvious to you (to me, also), because she thought there might be people who wouldn't think of it. And she might be right. So no accusations based on this one from me, and I suggest you don't as well.

Oh, don't think that's all from me. Just had to step in, Whiteskins. I'll be back. Just need a quiet rest and time to think, curse you! *walks off to his hut and slams the door*

[the guy who be short]

I suppose Legate is right in this. Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.

This gives me 5 minutes to vote. I'm still not happy with Rikae misrepresenting me, but my accusation of Lommy stands. Will probably vote for her.

[the guy who be short]

++LOMMY

Fare well and vote wisely.

[Mithalwen]

With the usual caveat that you can never discount Roa as a wolf (and I am sure she would be insulted if we did), her post, at an early and extremely quiet phase, reminded me rather of my ill fated first post in my last game where with the absence of anything to discuss I stated the somewhat obvious as what I believe Americans call a "heads up". Two of the people who jumped down my throat for my innocent comments turned out to be wolves.

I really can't imagine what else there was to say at that point ..especially if you are not into the rpg side ...in fact had timezones been different I might have said similar things. Unless Roa is one of them the wolves would be delighted to get her lynched today so unless I see some evidence a heck of a lot stronger that "helpful without being so" I shall look more suspiciously at her accusers.

Yes seeming to be helpful can be an indicator but it more often applies to "empty analyses" - reporting the deeds of others without applying any insight or drawing conclusions.... Day 2 or 3 stuff.

[Nogrod]

Back then... Just a general point to begin with.

Originally Posted by tgwbs

All that first post (=Roa's) has caused is unnecessary speculation; I and others have been forced to reply to it and carry on with this useless role-speculation.

First post does not cause a flood but those who continue it. I can't see all the stuff talked here around Roa's post being only forced replies... But it has provoked interesting reactions to be sure. So it might turn out useful, not perhaps toDay but later in the game.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am back and I must say I spent a lot of time thinking about who these wolves might be. However optimistic I would like to be, I ended up being very pesimistic about the possibility we catch a wolf today. But as I said earlier, this does not mean giving it up, I am merely stating facts based on probability. Many images of a werewolf came through my mind. First it seemed it's Rikae in bright lycra suit, then it's a sort of small penguin-gal, then it must be a pack of dirty little wizards; or maybe it's all the lot together.

One of the other persons is Nogrod. He might be honest, though... there are several things which seem really alarming to me. He seemed playing too much of a "goodie" to me in his first post. And later then, I am naturally suspicious of people who make summaries. I didn't say that in the last game, because all my colleagues did that at that time But that's fact: a werewolf does best to make summaries for himself, so it does not take much effort from him to post them to others.

And Brinn. If I were a Wolf and were her (=person first time in a wolf role), I wouldn't probably do much until the end, which is exactly what she does. Though someone said here that accusing someone because of posting nothing-containing posts is silly now, I'd still want to point it out. She did it. Just to bring it to attention, if nothing else. Also, Nogrod seems to quite easily merge her with the other people who posted more, while I think that Brinniel didn't say that much, actually. This is exactly what the other wolves did to me when I was a wolf - putting me in one sack with other innocents, so that no one noticed.

That's what I had to share. Ponder it or not, agree with it or not, speak to it or not (but rather speak than not). I have spoken.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Roa

Normally, when someone comes out as a gifted, we don't know if they're telling the truth or not, and all we have is that no one else is saying "No, they're lying- it's really me!" In this game, we don't know if we even have gifted, let alone being able to tell if a "revealed gifted" is lying or not. Remember- we don't have retractable votes this game. There won't be a last minute turn around or sudden random bandwagon. At least, such an occurance is highly unlikely. If someone is feeling pressure, gifted or wolf alike, they would have to do something well before the last minute. A gifted being suspected may choose to not risk waiting it out. At the same time, a wolf may do the same, banking on the fact that the pretended role may not even really exist. Yes, it would be risky for them to do so, but far less risky, since we don't know what we have and what we don't. The wolves may be planning on using that to their advantage, and I wanted to make sure that everyone was aware of it and on the look out.

Gifteds, if they are in this game, will just have to be more clever than that.

While at the surface, it seems Roa is trying to be helpful with this reasoning, I can just as easily see a wolf doing this to confuse people. In my last game, Roa was the cobbler and her comments were not the least bit helpful. This game, we don't even know if we have a cobbler, yet I do not doubt that a werewolf would use Day One to confuse. Roa could be innocent, but right now it is difficult to say. At this time, I am more inclined to think her a possible wolf.

[Macalaure]

I did an 'early' tgwbs-vote to get a waggon rolling. Obviously it worked the other way around. I don't care whether I'm suspected or not, but that current vote for Lommy is a shot in the dark which I would like to highly disencourage!

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh good, people talked! That makes me so happy.

So, the "Day 1's are useless" "No they aren't" debate has been started. Well, I'll admit that when no one talks on Day 1, very little gets done. However, you can catch people in lies or contradictions, especially if they're vocal. It's been done before, and it can happen again. Day 1 is the most useless when everyone bemoans how useless it is, and nothing gets done.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I disagree. Talking about gifteds and all that this early is in no way helpful. They can also work things out for themselves. That Roa-post looks like it was trying to be helpful, but wasn't saying much that was helpful to the village.

No way helpful? You don't think it's helpful to point out that a wolf could easily hide as a gifted, especially in this game, and that we should be aware of it? Would you rather I wait until Day 3, when someone suddenly says "Wait, I'm a gifted!" and everyone panics and tries to find someone else to vote for? At such a time, that point would do more harm than good, causing even greater confusion than what typically happens on such days.

Her accusations and vote for Glirdan. Seems to be on very shoddy evidence to me.

She had to go, and it's probable that she won't be on again until after the Day has ended. Voting for the person you find most suspicious isn't suspicious, it's what everyone does. I like that much more than a random vote.

Isn't that what Roa, who she defends, was doing?

What was I doing? Perhaps you didn't read the full post. I systematically went over the possible roles, established what we could and could not do about them (mostly nothing), and ended it by saying:

Originally Posted by Me

So, with that out of the way, we can stop worrying about roles which might not even be here, and just focus on catching wolves.

I garuntee you, if I hadn't brought it up, someone else would have, likely a wolf, and tried to stir conversation and debate about it. I find your means of accusing me through accusing Thin to be extremely shady.

Moving on....

Originally Posted by Gil

so that makes me inclined to think that either Roa and thin are wolves... or our gifted...

Openly marking suspected gifted makes me very nervous indeed. And knowing how quiet Gil tends to be, I have little hope of getting a better read off of him.

And finally....

Originally Posted by Glirdan

And now I am clear. I was actually a litte befuddled by what you had posted which made me leery(sp?) of you. Sorry for jumping down your throat.

I'm not so sure I accept this defense. If you weren't clear, why jump so readily on Rikae's point? Why not ask for clarification instead? You used some pretty dire wording for mere "befuddlement."

I have to vote now, since I won't be back till after the deadline.

++TGWBS

He worries me the most right now, especially since I am wary of anyone who tries to carry on a debate about roles we might not even have, and he keeps doing just that. Not to mention he says:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Talking about gifteds and all that this early is in no way helpful.

and then

I'd rather a more important gifted (the Hunter isn't that important) declared themselves rather than letting themselves be killed. THat would be a huge blow, losing a gifted by our own hands.

and

It's better to lynch anybody and have a chance of getting a wolf than to lynch a Seer/Ranger. If they are in a position where they are likely to be lynched, that means they will die anyway. They may as well declare, let the wolves get them at night and let the village try to get a wolf in the day rather than killing the gifted.

For someone who thinks talking about gifteds is unhelpful, that's aboutall his posts have been. And that, for you people who think Day 1's are useless, is a contradiction.

Edit: Crossed with Nogrod