Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

She says we shouldn't trust anyone who reveals. Nice andh andy thing for a wolf to get into people's minds early.

For the last time, that is not what I said. I said we should be wary of revealing gifteds because it's a lot easier for a wolf to do so in this game. I can almost garuntee a gifted who feels pressure won't wait till the last moment to reveal. It wouldn't do any good since we don't have retractables, and their chance of being saved would be almost nil. It's not like someone's going to come out in the last 10 minutes and say "No wait!" and we're all going to waste time trying to figure if they're lying. We'd have plenty of time. We don't even know if we have gifted, let alone if someone claiming to be gifted is lying. I know you seem confident that we have at least a ranger and seer, but I honestly don't know why. We could three shirrifs, or maybe all hunters, or maybe just a birthday dreamer. It looks more to me like you're setting up for a "reveal" and are upset that I'm ruining your plans.

Also, all this "Rikae must definately be innocent" worries me. Yes, she just happens to have the perfect vote placement, but she herself said that she hadn't read through the thread. Maybe she didn't know that a vote for Glirdan would tie him with Lommy. Or perhaps she made a mistake and miscounted the votes, like I did, and thought to do the safest thing (for herself) and vote to lynch Glirdan. (The point I used for Nogrod applies here as well.) I'm not saying she's definately guilty, but we really should know better than discount someone for a mere Day 1 vote. I've only seen her as a wolf once, but I know she's very good at avoiding suspcion.

Concerning my analysis of Nogrod- I love it when people discuss my analysis, even if they're against it. It forces people to say something concrete and form opinions. That said, Nogrod's reaction to my post gives me pause. He's calm, rational, even, and doesn't brush it off with a "Well, I guess we just misunderstand each other," or "We're both loud and that's probably why we suspect each other so often." ON the other hand, waffling, as Legate pointed out when discussing Lommy, is incredibly wolvish, especially to the extent Nogrod did it.

One more thing gives me pause though, and while Nogrod was right in suggesting we not use the information learned from last night's events, I can't help but think that a wolvish Nogrod would never let a kill get away.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Roa

For the last time, that is not what I said.

Originally Posted by Roa Day 1

We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds at any point in the game, because without knowing what we have, it would be easy for a wolf to use that as a cover. So, even if a gifted proclamation goes uncontested, it's posible that the role isn't even in the game. Gifteds, if there are any, will need proof greater than a lack of contest if they plan on revealing.

How could you possibly interpret that as "we should be wary of revealing gifteds" rather than "we should not trust people who reveal themselves as gifted?" This is beyond me. You are contradicting yourself and digging your hole ever deeper...

[Gil-Galad]

I don't like this... Lommy defends Roa first day... now Roa defends Lommy second day... and Sixth is attacking me because i attacked him first... which is totally understandable...


hmmm... i'm not sure who my vote is going for today, TGWBS seems innocent to me, so i have no ill-feelings towards him.

bah... can't really decide... i haven't heard much from Mac and Mith lately, my two other slightly suspicous... but with Miths last post, i think i'm going to have give my vote to her, reason:

Feel rather more positive today .... wolf gone... and it seems we have a good rangery type person ...

Seems to me, your just stalling for your post and stating facts that can't really be brought into the spotlight

I would just say that my Xyzzy vote was intended as a damage limitation exercise not as a throwaway. Fortuanately you all ignored me I think I have been playing this game too long.. overcomplicating it...

Again, she said something that would bring very little suspicion onto her, and she tried to give a reason for her vote... but i still beleive that this might be a wolf trying to cover for Glirdan and now with Glirdan gone, she is trying to move on and hope that nobody remembered this, but i did...

I've always tried to catch the whole "sneaking-under-the-radar" move for Wolfs... so hopefully i caught me one Lupine...

++Mithalwen


Edit: X-'ed with Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

How could you possibly interpret that as "we should be wary of revealing gifteds" rather than "we should not trust people who reveal themselves as gifted?"

Because I said:

We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds

Oh, you're right, the "extremely" there makes it into a statement of not trusting gifted at all. I can totally see where you're coming from, and it doesn't look like you're twisting my words at all.

You've been trying to get me lynched since Day 1, even going so far as to put comments against me in your analysis of other players. Why not just get it over with and analyze me? It's what you want to do.

[Roa_Aoife]

I really must vote now- I have to go to work. Right now, my top suspects are:

Nogrod- for the reasons I stated above
TGWBS- Everything else aside, he's being very backhanded in his attacks on me, sneaking them into analyses on other players, etc, and he keeps twisting my words to make them seem different
Gil - because while I appreciate his greater activity, the things he's saying are sending up all sorts of red flags- his deliberate pointing out potential gifted, his baseless case against Sixth, (it's not compassion Gil; it's common sense), and lastly, his dropping his suspicion against Lommy and Sixth and going for Mith. Mith is is suspicious, no doubt, but the reasons he uses are fabricated at best

And I'm going shamelessly metagame (use outside knowledge) and vote

++Gil

Because he's the most likely to let a kill slip away.

I know you didn't want us to use that, Nogrod, and that's honorable and admirable, but I can't help having that thought in my head. It seems silly to ignore the common sense of the matter.
Otherwise, it honestly would have been a coin toss between TGWBS and Nogrod.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, if someone with more time could analyze Rikae- people getting ignored for for a vote is just waaay to convenient.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Gil - because while I appreciate his greater activity, the things he's saying are sending up all sorts of red flags- his deliberate pointing out potential gifted, his baseless case against Sixth, (it's not compassion Gil; it's common sense), and lastly, his dropping his suspicion against Lommy and Sixth and going for Mith. Mith is is suspicious, no doubt, but the reasons he uses are fabricated at best

wow... i didn't say i wasn't suspicous of lommy and sixth anymore, i just said that i was confused about the whole Lommy-Roa relationship that has made me thinking...

and now yo uare defending Sixth about being compassionate... sigh... now don't tell me that is not fabricated, i may drop my suspicions of Sixth if somebody shows me a complete post, but for now i'm still wary of Lommy and Roa, i don't like this tag-team againest me one bit...

i say to ye vilalgers, if you join this bandwagon, then i urge you to persecute Roa and Lommy because i don't like being cornered by everyone


in conclusion, i say that Roa's reasons are fruitless at best againest me...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whatever might have happened here today and yesterday at the end, I went through everything and I realized I have to stand behind my early option. Thinlómien. One other thing emerging here today about her would be the possibility of her and Six being connected. I know they are both early-voters, but we are not in Day 1 anymore. See: Day 1 - Lommy has to leave, votes Glirdan. Six has to leave, votes Glirdan. Day 2 - Lommy has to leave, votes tgwbs. Six shouts about Lommy fanclub, votes tgwbs. Eeek. Something smells here. Though I have said I'll leave thoughts on Six to later then, this is strange.

Mac I was getting a little bit suspicious of because there still seemed to be something slippery on him; particularly I was interested in his case against tgwbs, which I felt to be fabricated. I must say, the main point is because I felt tgwbs innocent and didn't feel it right to accuse him. It crushes with my logic, if they were both innocent, that this case appeared. However, after going through all Mac wrote, I now see him clearer than ever and am prepared to drop him from my suspect list. He seems innocent and logical.

Nogrod I have very strong opinion on: either he is a total wolf who should be lynched rightaway, or he is a very good and intelligent innocent and... yeah, lynching him would be the worst thing to do. I somehow can't put the evidence together this time, I am not as concentrated as I should, or something like that. I am not dropping him, but probably, unless something else happens, I am going to vote for Lommy today. I am saying this in forward, though I am not going to cast my vote now yet in case something happens (so far there was just a tgwbs and Mith bandwaggon forming, and who knows what might happen), but if anyone else thinks we should vote for Lommy, I say straightforward I am for it and I will cast that vote later. I just want to use the advantage of having time till later before the deadline, so I'll cast it later (if we had retractions, I'd have cast it at that point).

EDIT: X-ed with Gil and the last two.

Edit - Ad Mac:
Okay pal, in your last post, you swept off the last suspicions. I drop everything against you - if you are a wolf, then you must have miraculous abilities.

Edit - Ad tgwbs:
Seems the Lommy bandwaggon has started, so I am not alone (cf. above). Will still wait yet, though...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa

One more thing gives me pause though, and while Nogrod was right in suggesting we not use the information learned from last night's events, I can't help but think that a wolvish Nogrod would never let a kill get away.

Originally Posted by Roa

And I'm going shamelessly metagame (use outside knowledge) and vote
++Gil
Because he's the most likely to let a kill slip away.
I know you didn't want us to use that, Nogrod, and that's honorable and admirable, but I can't help having that thought in my head. It seems silly to ignore the common sense of the matter.

Okay. So be it. And now that you mentioned these again I guess the milk is spilled wide enough anyhow. And looking at the brighter side of this: if Menel has some nasty surprises for us in this game maybe it's just fair we can also use some unfair means of getting our wolves... (I remember Lommy once got my ancestor who was a wolf by mod-Glirdy slipping the sex of the wolf in the narration... so this would not be the first time)

So you're absolutely right with the first one. I was there before and after the deadline and would never let a kill slip. If I were a wolf and my mate wouldn't be around near the deadline I'd take action by myself, not bothering to wait for my lazy / unfortunate mate (I'd send a kill to the mod on my own and added that it's subject to change if my mate miraculously reappears from somewhere before the DL, or something like that).

And what you say about Gil is just what I have been thinking myself. That's why I picked him back to my "needs to analyse" list as I wished to be able to read him through and find something else to suspect him for than this "probably the one to be able to miss a kill" -argument...

In fact I'm going to try and do just that now. And take a look at few others as well as I think I need to do some rearranging in my mind about certain people - mainly dropping them from my suspicions if the rereading allows that.

[Macalaure]

I'll try a new approach, I'll list all the people who look innocent to me.. and then go for who is left.

Innocent:
Brinn. Appears very honest and helpful today. Ignoring her vote, I see no reason not to trust her right now.
Legate. Seems earnest. I don't agree with everything he says, but his points don't look made up, but honest. Curious to see why he suspects me, though. I hate being suspected by people who I trust in turn.
Mith. Did not say much today so far. I trusted her yesterday, and nothing has happened to change that.
Sixth. His vote yesterday looked innocent, and so does his general behaviour.

Very probably innocent:
Rikae. Another innocent-looking voter yesterday. I always find it difficult to read her, though.
Roa. I find nothing suspicious about her at the time. However, she's Roa, so she never looks entirely innocent.
tgwbs. He seems to attract quite some suspicion today. Interestingly, what he said today makes me feel a lot better about him. Like with Legate, I don't always agree with him, but what he says looks honest.

Unsure:
I still don't have a clear picture of Gil and Xyzzy.

Which leaves me only with: Nogrod and Lommy.

If you look at Nogrod from one angle, he looks very wolfish, from the other angle, he looks rather innocent. I simply don't know how to judge him.

Lommy is my (only ) real suspect right now. I will have a close look at her later.


Apart from that:

Originally Posted by Roa

Your reasons for suspecting Mac are as bad as TGWBS's reasons for suspecting Lommy, if not worse. He's suspicious becuase he left after he voted?

Well, I did not leave after I voted. I just don't like voting in the last minutes. I even have to admit that I did try to start a bandwaggon against tgwbs, which some suspected. It's because that's what I like to do with my votes: achieve to lynch somebody! I would've been more active on it if I had a better reasoning.

[the guy who be short]

I'm afraid I must leave now.

++Lommy for reasons already stated.

[the guy who be short]

Do we have to go into semantics, Roa? Nowhere in that first post of yours does it even indicate that "we should be careful not to accidentally reveal our gifteds." It very clearly advocates mistrust of anybody who claims to be gifted. I do not need to analyse you, because your unreasonable obstinance on this matter is more than enough to make me confident of your wolvishness.