Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Nogrod]

Okay. I will not repeat all the things said on / by tgwbs yesterDay. I just sum up some of the things that bothered me with him yesterDay.

His bogus case on Lommy and insistence to stick with it.

His stated view that we should not use our time discussing the gifteds and his actions of doing mainly that (and thence making it harder to have any other discussion).

All this “trying to look helpful without being helpful” –stuff. It’s all too easy way to throw accusations around when there is no substance. Admittedly he has made quite a row about the possible substance with Roa after these events...


As Rikae and Macalaure pointed out he also said this:

Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.

Pre-emptive lupine defence?

And most importantly his voting which nicely brought Lommy level with a known wolf. Also it felt like a detached vote: an innocent villager would not be ready to vote for a cabable player (and bring her level to share the lead) early in the game with that bad reasons tgwbs presented at the time. Also I got the same vibes from him the last time and he turned out a wolf then.

Then something from toDay.

#142 There is this “anti-waffling” of him... I mean his continued insistence on the interpretation on Lommy’s vote for Glirdy

To me, with hindsight, this looks very much like a wolf-on-wolf vote. Lommy says her evidence is feeble, so she can distance herself from it in the future, but she still manages to vote for a fellow wolf. Saying her evidence is feeble also decreases the potential of the vote becoming a bandwagon.

Lommy’s vote can be constructed both ways but tgwbs decides to be “sure” it is this way. That I find unnerving. Too decisive people are worrysome.

#143 This has all the good reasoning behind it:

I don't think Nogrod is a wolf. If he were, and presuming Lommy to be a wolf too, I think the sensible course of action would be to vote for me so that there would be a 1/3 chance of an innocent dying, rather than 0.

After Brinn had first appreciated Roa’s terribly bad analysis of me and then brought forwards her confusing theory about myself and Mith wishing to lynch Xyzzy because we were wolves (I don’t of course know about Mith but I doubt it) and Mac had also said Roa had good points and even speculated on it, it felt quite good to read these words of reason. But immediately I realised this psychological effect that it had and started to wonder whether that wouldn’t be just the thing a wolf-tgwbs would need to do? Appease some of those who openly suspected him the Day before. I was a good target as there had been some suspicions raised against me on weak grounds and I would then welcome his reasonableness and lower my suspicions... A bit complicated I agree and am not sure what to think of it.

#147 He still only includes interpretations that back his idea of Lommy and Roa being wolves. I don't deny the possibility, not at all, but a decent villager would note that there are other ways of interpreting things that are equally reasonable.

In general I’ll leave the row between tgwbs and Roa be. I see no reason to dwell in it now. But this argument against Roa in #155 needs to be restated just for fun:

I do not need to analyse you, because your unreasonable obstinance on this matter is more than enough to make me confident of your wolvishness.

There is Finnish proverb that talks about a pot blaming a saucepan while they both are black on the sides...

So what to say about all this?

I have all the reasons to suspect tgwbs. More than others at this point I think. But I must admit that I waver again (even waffle? ). It may be just the differences in style or approach too... unlike tgwbs I can’t say I’m sure.

[Nogrod]

Btw. Brinniel, I saw this as I reread the posts.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Now if xyzzy is innocent, then a werewolf Nogrod or Mithalwen, or even both, would knowingly push for the lynching of an innocent, using his absence as an excuse.

Why should a wolf wish to drive openly a lynch of Xyzzy which draws attention? There were three candidates who could realistically be lynched by that time: Glirdy, Lommy and tgwbs. Assuming us the wolves we should have gone for Lommy or tgwbs and that would have been easy taking account of how many suspicions had been raised on them (I had suspected tgwbs already the whole Day). And you can’t say wolf-Nogrod and wolf-Mith didn’t wish to do that because also tgwbs and Lommy were wolves too... That’d make five wolves...


Where is everyone? An hour left!

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why should a wolf wish to drive openly a lynch of Xyzzy which draws attention?

Because the reasoning behind lynching xyzzy, who is quite possibly innocent would make sense. As you and Mithalwen mentioned, you were not sure if he'd ever show up at all...a perfect excuse to lynch an innocent, while not making it look suspicious. Legate was partially going for this idea as well, and I know all three of you couldn't be wolves. If this was indeed a werewolf's plot, this using the "no-show-player" excuse did work in bringing at least one innocent onto the wolf's (or wolves') side. And such an excuse makes your actions towards the idea of a xyzzy lynch not suspicious at all.

Ugh...I feel like I'm rambling. I hope that made sense.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Because the reasoning behind lynching xyzzy, who is quite possibly innocent would make sense. As you and Mithalwen mentioned, you were not sure if he'd ever show up at all...a perfect excuse to lynch an innocent, while not making it look suspicious. Legate was partially going for this idea as well, and I know all three of you couldn't be wolves. If this was indeed a werewolf's plot, this using the "no-show-player" excuse did work in bringing at least one innocent onto the wolf's (or wolves') side. And such an excuse makes your actions towards the idea of a xyzzy lynch not suspicious at all.

Ugh...I feel like I'm rambling. I hope that made sense.

Not really.... since if I were a wolf I would not do something so conspicuous.... and I since you are suspicious it would not have been such a good plan to make myself look innocent would it? And Xyzzy has not been proved innocent.....

In fact on the surface, you would have to say if there were 2 wolves remaining and they failed (rather than designed) to demand a kill... then Xyzzy and Gil would probably be the 2 most likely too.. however there may be extreme RL circs that made a less likely player miss it.....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

a perfect excuse to lynch an innocent, while not making it look suspicious.

Possibly. But I still fail to see a reason for a wolf to act like that when there were much better candidates of whom someone had to be innocent if we don't have a pack of wolves around here... Anyhow, I think we have more important things to discuss now than this. There are still seven votes to give and all is open.

[Mithalwen]

The only thing I would mention is the point I made about him saying that the wolves forgoing a kill was ridiculous.... if TGWBS is a wolf he has missed a kill.... would he do that to prove a point he had made himself....

But you are right about me not being a wolf Noggie...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

if TGWBS is a wolf he has missed a kill....

That's true. And it is true of every other wolf-candidate too. But Brinniel is right. It maybe for whatever RL-reason.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That's true. And it is true of every other wolf-candidate too. But Brinniel is right. It maybe for whatever RL-reason.

And he didn't post elsewhere on the downs yesterday... hmmm

[Macalaure]

Don't get me wrong, but I think all this speculation about who might have missed to send the kill to Menel and who might not is really low-level Werewolf...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Mac

Don't get me wrong, but I think all this speculation about who might have missed to send the kill to Menel and who might not is really low-level Werewolf...

It's a waste of time. Really...you're not going to find out who the werewolf is through this. Let's be logical and base our votes on what's in this thread, not elsewhere.

Half an hour left... Where are Legate, Gil, and Rikae?

I'm assuming xyzzy won't be voting again...

Well, whether the posting speeds up or not, I think I'll vote very soon. I feel pretty confident in who I want to vote for, unless something dramatically changes...

EDIT: X-ed with a lot of people. There you are Legate...

[Macalaure]

Let's fix it:

++Thinlómien

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Oh, no, no! You misunderstand me. Or I wasn't clear enough...

I was referring to Mith, who was referring to Roa's and tgwbs's general point about being able to count with a ranger if there's no kill in one night. If there is nothing special, as there was tonight, Roa is right here, because of the possible existance of a Cursed.

Oh. Of course, sorry. It seemed very strange to me you were discussing it.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

And he didn't post elsewhere on the downs yesterday... hmmm

Oh, I don't think we should bring this into play... it's not fair play.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh, I don't think we should bring this into play... it's not fair play.

I agree. It might have been whatever reason between the earth and heaven so let's leave this. I myself feel much better this way too...

But any ideas you people? Everyone is just waiting, but waiting for what?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But any ideas you people? Everyone is just waiting, but waiting for what?

Waiting for someone to slip, of course. After reading it I think I don't have anything to add to your little debate up here. I just hope you&Mith are not wolves.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

And I personally I always have a quick check at recent posting if someone claims RL has prevented them posting much. It is not fool proof but gives a hint as to the degree of economy with the actualite....

I know what you mean and I agree with it, but then we can rightaway all play in Visible mode. Anyway, this is about nothing, let's leave that matter once and for all.

On a more gaming note - so far I have seen nothing here to change my opinion on my vote. I hope we won't see some wolfstream in the last moment. I am going to wait yet, so the last minute rumble makes sense, but Lommy it is for me.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh, I don't think we should bring this into play... it's not fair play.

This isn't cricket you know ..or these days maybe it is..... and I think the genie is out of the bottle on that one this game


And I personally I always have a quick check at recent posting if someone claims RL has prevented them posting much. It is not fool proof but gives a hint as to the degree of economy with the actualite....

[Mithalwen]

Who blinks first of course ...