WW XXXIII - Other Minds and Hands

[Gil-Galad]

first off i apolagize, thsi week has became rather busy, mroe busy then i expected, but hopefully this long weekend can give me time to get back up onto speed but the gifted kill and the lack of wolf kills dis-hearten me...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Volo

Though I am beginning to be a little paranoid on Anguirel (and why SPM was always so sure of his innocence.

I am not at all sure of his innocence. However, given what happened on Day 1, I consider it highly unlikely that both Legate and Ang are Wolves. Since I believe Legate to be a Wolf, I think it unlikely that Ang is one.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Was that a confession?

Oops! I meant “Boro voters”, of course.

Originally Posted by Volo

I bet with my life that Legate is innocent.

And I would stake my life in him being a Wolf. In fact, I pretty much have already.

Originally Posted by Volo

1. You didn't agree with my (and his) opinions about Boro being extremely suspicious.

But that’s the point, isn’t it? Boro, in my view, did not look particularly suspicious. You made a tentative accusation, and Legate seized upon it (no doubt because you are effectively a known innocent) and started sweet-talking everyone into believing it. Can’t you see it? Legate is playing his role to perfection.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Volo has basically solidified a connection between himself and Legate, so it's pretty safe to say that their alignments are the same. If Volo is telling the truth about his role (which I have no reason not to believe at this point in time), then it would follow that Legate is also on the side of the innocents.

Kath picked up on this, but it is worth reiterating. I believe Volo innocent, but he has no special knowledge. Just because Volo thinks Legate is innocent, it does not follow that he is.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I did not say that we should trust Legate because Volo says so. I said that if Volo is not lying about his role, Legate is likely to be innocent because no sane wolf would post something as clear-cut as Volo's championing of Legate.

This doesn't explain your point at all, since I think we are all pretty much agreed now that Volo is not a Wolf. But, just because he has been convinced of Saruman's innocence, it doesn't follow that the White Wizard is not a Wolf of many colours.

Originally Posted by Kath

With that comment about Legate being innocent because Volo says so Shasta has moved into the guilty list because it feels like an attempt to clear a fellow wolf.

I would have thought the same, but for Shasta’s vote yesterDay for Legate, which would have been a very risky Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Originally Posted by Kath

But that's just my 'uh oh Sauce is still alive after two Days, he must be evil!' alarm going off so I'll ignore that for now.

Uh uh! Here we go …

I’m off to look over what happened yesterDay again, as I was not here at the time.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

2 votes before I have a chance to get online, you guys are really testing my pations!

The next time I have to leave a long time before deadline I just wont vote and give the wolves more influence. . .

OK I won't, but right now I sure feel like it! You guys jump on my back for not voting for one of the two that you decided was most likely to be wolves, well in the end you made me vote for one of them and suprise suprise he was innocent!

Until proven otherwise I will claim that my vote for Mac was wiser than those that vote Boromir at first. Anyways if i cannot vote for the people I find suspicouse then what I am to do?

The reason I get irritated by this is that now everybody thinks that I am a wolf because of one vote, very little of you had other cases against me. SPM and Volo had made some points about my style which is a 1000 times more valid than my vote, if you are going to keep ranting about my guilt do it based on that please.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Volo

Brinniel's vote was a moderately safe vote for a friend. Looking at her earlier thoughts about Rune you'll probably see what I mean. I'm not 100% about this figure, but it looks the most probable.

My earlier thoughts on Rune? Which earlier thoughts are you talking about? I don't recall mentioning anything about him on Day 1, mostly because I didn't know what to think of him at the time. On Day 2, I started to feel suspicious of him (as shown in #180) and it only increased as I took a look back at all of his posts.

And I really wouldn't consider my vote for Rune safe. When I made my vote, I cross-posted with everything since post #194. This means if I hadn't cross-voted, I would've pulled it into a triple-tie, which means a random lynch among the three, and would've given a 1 in 3 chance for the person I voted for and most suspected to be lynched. It was better odds than to seal the fate of Legate, someone I was starting to feel increasingly uncertain of at the time. I hadn't seen the two votes for Boromir until after I made my vote, and by then it was too late to make any sort of difference.

I'm still feeling very uncertain about Legate, I keep going back and forth on him...and it doesn't help that he's not going to be around toDay. Right now, things don't look too good for him simply based on his vote for Boromir yesterDay.

Rune I am still suspicious of, and I will keep an eye on him toDay.

Through most of the game, I've been feeling that Aganzir is innocentish, but just based on her vote for Boromir, which tied him with Legate, I think perhaps I should take a closer look at her. And I can't seem to find a good reason on why she votes for him. I'm not sure what to think here...

Okay, I have to go get ready for work now. I'm pretty sure I'm closing tonight, so I'm afraid I won't be back for another eight hours.

EDIT: X-ed with SPM and Rune

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am sorry if I was a bit too agressive or used a harsh tone in my earlier post. I was just annoyed with the votes and Lommys death, but I have cooled down now.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I am sorry if I was a bit too agressive or used a harsh tone in my earlier post. I was just annoyed with the votes and Lommys death, but I have cooled down now.

looks like a good cover to me...

I don't see what you're finding suspicious about Boromir.

Fools.

now that i don't like... trying a bluff? perhaps boro and mac are both wolfs and Mac tried to bluff by stating that...

but my vote will probably go to Rune though...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

In case you did not notice: Boromir is dead and he was an Ordo

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

In case you did not notice: Boromir is dead and he was an Ordo

alright then... then perhaps Mac was piggy-backing on Boro's death and tried to play either a wolf or gifted...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

That is a possibility. . . one that I think is worth considering.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few things from yesterDay.

I think that there may be something in Volo’s case against Aganzir, though he seemed to withdraw from it. She was picked up (by Ang) on the comment about Mithalwen’s concern over becoming a widow, which did not look Wolfish to me at all, merely flippant and humorous. But her attempt to explain it by saying that she would not have posted it were she a Wolf does look Wolfish. Why would she say this if it didn’t look Wolfish in the first place? It just seems the kind of overly defensive explanation which a Wolf might give when under scrutiny. Aganzir also looks bad for her determined attempt to discredit Volo, which could well have been a Wolfish attempt to neutralise a known innocent, subsequently abandoned when it gained no support.

If you want more proof that Legate is a Wolf, look no further than his posts #154, #155 and #162. Volo, in post #122, had raised a doubt about Boro and a few people had expressed some possible suspicions, but nothing firm. Then, in these posts, Legate delivers a withering assessment of Boro, seemingly in a honey-tongued attempt to turn the doubts of others into suspicion and, thus, votes. An endeavour in which he was, alas, successful. I think that we are better of without the Voice of Saruman toDay.

Anguirel’s case against Rune and Brinniel (#168) is an interesting one, since it is predicated entirely on the basis of hindsight. He is saying that, because we now know Volo to be innocent, anyone who was suspicious of Volo prior to his revelation looks suspicious, which does not follow at all. Volo did look pretty suspicious immediately before his revelation. I find Rune and Brinniel suspicious, for other reasons, but Ang’s reasoning here looks Wolfish to me. I wonder, is there any possibility that both Legate and Ang are Wolves, and were playing a very risky game on Day 1? Doubtful, but not beyond the bounds of credibility.

Originally Posted by Rune

It was interesting how Legate found Brinniel's comments suspiciouse when he made something very similar, of course it was connected with her vote and he did retract the suspicion when she had explained her self. OK maybe this was not so interesting after all.

Actually, it is quite interesting. Legate seems to have a habit of finding things suspicious when he himself has done them. He did the same with Ang, on the basis of the early Day 1 banter, yet later withdrew his supicion of Ang too.

Originally Posted by Legate of Ima Wolf

I have checked toDay's vote list, and apart from Shasta, who suddenly&unfortunately chose to vote for me, there are yet two other to vote for me. And these are Boro&SpM. I am fairly convinced at least one of them is a Wolf, and I am probably going to vote one of them.

This is the comment that I mentioned earlier. A classic Wolfish ploy.

Kath's post #177 makes a good case against Rune, and echoes my own thoughts on him. I can see why he attracted so much suspicion yesterDay, and can certainly see him as one of Saruman’s Wolfish cohorts. His Day 2 voting looks bad too. A ‘safe’ vote for Mac (who was under little suspicion at the time), subsequently retracted to condemn an innocent Boro, rather than himself or Legate.

[The Saucepan Man]

So, a quick round-up of my thoughts before I retire for the night.

Volo - The Spirit of Tolkien, Lor’ bless ‘im, but unfortunately beguiled by the silver tongue of his own creation.
Legate of Amon Lanc - A sweet-talking rogue who deserves nothing less than a rapid descent from Orthanc onto a nice bed of spikey wheels.
Macalaure - His vote for Sixth raised a slight question in my mind, but I haven’t seen anything else suspicious about him.
Shastanis Althreduin - Probably innocent for his Day 2 vote for Legate.
The Saucepan Man - A lone voice of reason.
Xyzzy - Who knows?
Brinniel - Some suspicious voting and seems a bit reluctant to commit herself. A possible Wolf.
Anguirel - Surely can’t be a Wolf with Legate. But I have some concerns, based upon the points raised just now.
Kath - Useful, constructive contributions. Day 1 vote was slightly suspicious, but Day 2 vote less so. Thinking her innocent-ish for now.
Gil-Galad - No idea. As usual, could be anything.
Aganzir - Non-committal approach earlier on and the suspicious points that I noted just now. A possible Wolf.
Rune - Looks distinctly Wolfish to me, for his frequent but insubstantive posts and his voting.
Diamond18 - Haven’t a clue, but she’s put in a few seemingly ‘safe’ votes.

Back tomorrow, almost certainly to vote for the Wolf Wizard.