WW XXXIII - Other Minds and Hands

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, I have little hope that anyone will believe me when I say this, given what has happened, but I am neither the Cobbler nor a Wolf. Merely an ordinary innocent who has so far got it utterly wrong, and spectacularly so. I was convinced that Legate was a Wolf and, when Volo came up with such seemingly damning evidence against me, having cleared Legate, I could see no other alternative than that they were both evil.

When I saw that Volo really was the Seer, I was mystified. But it is clear to me that Volo misinterpreted the passage that he received me, and I can see how.

Originally Posted by Volo's dream

'But if you want to be introduced to our chief investigator, I can produce him.'
'Where is he?' said Frodo, looking round, as if he expected a masked and sinister figure to come out of a cupboard.

This is from A Conspiracy Unmasked and the conspirator referred to is not in fact a sinister figure at all, but Samwise Gamgee. The clues aren't necessarily going to be straightforward and, if you read it with that in mind, this passage shows me to be what I am - innocent.

So I looked at the passage that Volo received about Aganzir.

Originally Posted by Volo's dream

“There was a little corner of his mind that was still his own, and light came through it.”

Remember, Volo initially interpreted the passage about Aganzir as signifying her to be a baddie. I think that he may have got it right first time round. The suggestion is that there is only a little corner of her mind that is still her own. This might signify that she is no longer, as she once was, fully human. And, together with her certainty yesterDay that Volo was the one telling the truth, a fact which only a Wolf could have known for sure, this makes me think that she may well be a Wolf who has found herself in the happy (for her) position of being considered a known innocent. I cannot be sure about this, though, as I am unfamiliar with the quote, and the context may be important.

Still, as I said, I have little hope that I will be believed, at least by enough to make a difference. And the Wolves will certainly be looking to capitalise on the consensus against me. However I must warn you that, if you lynch me toDay, the village is doomed.

[Kath]

Wait, wait, wait. Isn't the Cobbler on our side? Not in terms of allegiance obviously but in terms of numbers? I was under the impression that the Cobbler counted as an innocent until the numbers of wolves and innocents were equal. If this is correct then surely we'd be better off focusing on finding a wolf than lynching Sauce. I mean, we can just ignore Sauce, but the wolves will still have an effect.

If that rule doesn't count for this game then by all means let's lynch him ... but shouldn't we perhaps find out first?

[The Saucepan Man]

There’s probably little point in me doing this, but I shall anyway, for tradition’s sake, if nothing else.

Day 4 votes:

Volo: ++Mac (Mac-1)
Mac: ++Volo (Mac-1, Volo-1)
Legate: ++Mac (Mac-2, Volo-1)
Aganzir: ++Mac (Mac-3, Volo-1)
Kath: ++Mac (Mac-4, Volo-1)
Anguirel: ++Kath (Mac-4, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Diamond: ++Mac (Mac-5, Volo-1, Kath-1)
SpM: ++Volo (Mac-5, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Gil: ++Mac (Mac-6, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Shasta: ++Volo (Mac-6, Volo-3, Kath-1)
Anguirel: --Kath, ++Volo (Mac-6, Volo-4)
Gil: --Mac, ++Volo (Mac-5, Volo-5)

I strongly suspect that, if they had the opportunity to do so, one of the Wolves will have voted for Mac, particularly if the Cobbler voted for Volo (although the Cobbler will not have known for sure which one was lying and which one was telling the truth). The other Wolf will almost certainly have voted for Volo.

Mac voters: Aganzir, Kath, Diamond

Based upon Volo’s dream about her, I believe that Aganzir may well be a Wolf. Knowing Mac to be a Wolf and Volo to be innocent, the obvious move (for one of the Wolves, at least) would have been to support Volo’s claim. Other than Legate, Aganzir was the only villager who appeared to have no doubt whatsoever that Volo was telling the truth.

Kath’s to-ing and fro-ing on the issue looks suspicious to me, as if she was making her mind up what the best move for a Wolfish (or Cobbleresque) Kath was. So, if I am wrong about Aganzir, Kath is probably the Wolf here. If not, she could be the Cobbler.

Diamond’s reaction to the situation looks entirely genuine to me.

Volo voters: SpM, Anguirel, Shasta, Gil

The likelihood is that there is at least one Wolf and quite possibly a Cobbler here.

Shasta’s vote looks reasonable to me, as it was by no means clear which claim was true (even with the benefit of hindsight) and Volo’s duplicity (albeit in a good cause) definately looked dodgy.

As a last minute switcher, Gil’s vote is more suspicious, but I cannot fault his conclusion that a double-lynch was in the village’s best interests, as I thought this to be the best outcome for anyone who was in doubt. Still, the last minute nature of it suggests to me that he may be the Cobbler.

As for Anguirel, I think it quite possible that he is the Wolf among the Volo voters. The reason that he gave for switching his vote was that Volo was behaving smugly. An outrageously capricious and unreasoned vote at such a critical time. Possibly, he hoped that everyone would conclude that a Wolf wouldn’t possibly make such an outrageous move. It is also worth noting that he did a similar thing on Day 3, when everyone else who was around had concluded (correctly) that Brinniel was most likely a Wolf.

So, if anyone cares, my thoughts are:

Probable Wolves
Aganzir
Anguirel

Possibly Wolf or Cobbler
Kath

Possible Cobbler
Gil

Most likely innocent
Shasta
Diamond

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kath

If this is correct then surely we'd be better off focusing on finding a wolf than lynching Sauce. I mean, we can just ignore Sauce, but the wolves will still have an effect.

I am going to try to stay calm, but if the Day carries on like this I can see myself starting to fume.

If you are innocent, you would be better off trying to figure out who the Wolves are and who the actual Cobbler is, as I am trying to do.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few thoughts on earlier comments before I head off for some sleep.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Kath, please forgive me if I say it's really hard to believe you would have believed Mac even much enough to be that confused.
Di, I guess you, too, should have known better than to be confused if the liar was Mac or Volo.

Aganzir, may I remind you that only you and Legate considered there to be no doubt about Volo’s claim - the two villagers who Volo’s dreams apparently cleared. That and the fact that Volo’s suspicions tallied with his own no doubt explain Legate’s position. As for you, if, as I suspect, you are a Wolf, it was clearly in your interests to support him.

If you are innocent, however, you should bear in mind that there was no way that any innocent (or at least any innocent not seemingly cleared by his dreams) could be certain which claim was true and which one was not.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At least we won't lose if we lynch him now.

Well, you might not lose, but the village will.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Today is a day when analysis will actually pay off.

So why is hardly anyone bothering to do any serious analysis?

Bye for now. I hope that I am not still in Coventry when I return.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kath

Wait, wait, wait. Isn't the Cobbler on our side? Not in terms of allegiance obviously but in terms of numbers? I was under the impression that the Cobbler counted as an innocent until the numbers of wolves and innocents were equal.

In terms of numbers the Cobbler is on our side. Of course it would be better to find a Wolf toDay, but I'm afraid I'm no gambler. We have to kill either the Cobbler or a Wolf, and I think the best opinion is to kill Spm.
Would someone care to explain me why it is so certain that Spm is the Cobbler? I just don't understand why almost everybody seems to think it's obvious. He may as well be a wolf.

Now there are 7 of us alive. Let's think of a situation that we lynch an ordo. ToMorrow there would be 5 alive. Two Wolves, two ordos and the Cobbler. If the Cobbler is alive, the Wolves & the Cobbler together outnumber the ordos. They vote an ordo and win.

Diamond, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to sound offensive. Your behaviour just seemed strange to me, but now that I think it I guess all you who have played longer than I have seen a lot of games where the first one to claim to be the Seer is not one.

Gil, I definitely haven't played enough with you to know your style, so all I can do is to point out things I find suspicious, no matter were you always like that.

[Anguirel]

Diamond, there is certainly a non-wolf nasty somewhere. But it need not be Sauce. Before we lynched a wolf, five people were described in the narration as harbouring evil intentions.

Glad to have you back. I don't think you're a wolf. I was just flirting. In fact, I've modelled my entire approach this game since Day 2 on your typical style, semi-consciously...

I think it's interesting that Kath is stressing so emphatically that it would be dangerous to lynch Sauce if he is the cobbler. Is there any evidence in that riddle that he is cobbler not outright lupine baddy? No, there is not. I think she's trying to save her fellow-wolf. Both Sauce and Kath pooh-poohed my Brinniel case on Day 2. Sauce even attempted to use my success - the first time I've spotted a wolf correctly in ages, shame it had to be at the wrong time! - against me by "suspecting" a wolf-for-wolf vote.

Shasta seems to me the most likely other wolf.

There is a broad consensus building against me. I know that if Sauce was an innocent he would be defending me, knowing my habits as he does. I am capricious, and sometimes disastrous, to my own side. It's what I do. Then I come spectacularly good.

If Sauce, Shasta and Kath are not our remaining foes I will eat my bowtie and my nice waistcoat with its silver buttons. I shall present you with a proper anti-Kath tirade at a slightly later date.

If we must fight shy of lynching Sauce, I would like to take down Kath. Notice their identical, uncharacteristic styles early on - they concentrated all fire on a certain innocent suspect, Legate and Rune respectively. Known in the trade as the Farael-tactic, this technique usually implies guilt, unless it is being employed by Farael himself, in which case it sometimes does.

Those who suspect me, elucidate why, out of the admittedly abundant evidence against me, much of which I have deliberately constructed to avoid sharing my wife's fate, and I am happy to answer. But I don't want to monopolise proceedings today or tomorrow. I am not a mystery, I am a jester, a jester who could be of help if you took him seriously for once - could have been of help if you'd taken him seriously on Day 2.

[Kath]

Then I suggest you find a bottle of something that will help that bowtie of yours go down easier Ang, for you will be eating it.

Oh yes, and I love that I'm being told off for actually having real suspicions.

I am not against lynching Sauce full stop. I am against lynching Sauce if we can find a better candidate because if he is the Cobbler he can be useful in keeping our numbers up. The reason I think it more likely he is the Cobbler is because Volo thought so, and that particular boy is a master at riddles.

Now, I must go and I don't know if I will be back at the deadline so to make sure this actually has any effect at all:

++ SAUCE

Feel free to lynch me along with him Ang, but you'll be kicking yourself afterwards.

[The Saucepan Man]

Gah! This is so frustrating!

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Would someone care to explain me why it is so certain that Spm is the Cobbler? I just don't understand why almost everybody seems to think it's obvious. He may as well be a wolf.

Would someone care to explain to me exactly why you have made up your minds that I am either a Wolf or a Cobbler? So, I got it wrong about Volo and Legate. I was not the only one. As for Volo’s dream, well try a little lateral thinking.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I think it's interesting that Kath is stressing so emphatically that it would be dangerous to lynch Sauce if he is the cobbler.

I suspect that she has fallen for the general feeling that I might be the Cobbler. She does look distinctly furry to me. Notice how, when challenged, she put in a vote for me, in an attempt to sidestep the building suspicion. She did exactly the same thing yesterDay, with her vote for Mac.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Those who suspect me, elucidate why, out of the admittedly abundant evidence against me, much of which I have deliberately constructed to avoid sharing my wife's fate, and I am happy to answer.

So, you are claiming that you have deliberately acted suspiciously, thus endangering the village, so as to preserve your own life? That’s hardly innocent behaviour. It’s not really necessary to elucidate why you look suspicious, since you fully accept that you do. However, if I had to point to anything, apart from statements like this, I would note that your voting looks decidedly dodgy. Quite apart from your safe vote for Brinniel and your capricious vote yesterDay, you do, I think, hold the village record for retractions, and it seems to me that, save where they are prompted by revelations, Wolves (and the Cobbler) have the most to gain from making full use of the ability to switch votes.

[Gil-Galad]

I must agree with SPM... i just don't like it... but Aganzir is a proven innocent, but he is just an innocent trying to lead the rest of us againest SPM... and if he proves innocent? then what?

i feel i must take the chance with SPM... i am really close with taking my vote of him off because if we all bandwagon on him, the wolves will probably join us and hide amongst us...