Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[the guy who be short]

According to my books, the quiet includes, from quietest to loudest:

morm - 4 posts.
Isabellkya - 5 posts.
Fea - 7 posts.
Shasta - 9 posts.
Sixth - 9 posts.

As Fea seems to have some sort of excuse, I'll move her to the bottom of my list and commence analysing, in the following order:

morm
Isabellkya
Shasta
Sixth
Fea

[the guy who be short]

Mormegil:
DAY 2
Post 133 - Says nothing useful.
Post 135 - "Trust me or not, Mith is innocent." Why...?
Post 154 - Votes Kath on the basis that "Kath is Kath and I'm happier if she's dead."
DAY 3
Post 276 - Points out that we have no idea what roles there are, so discussion is a bit pointless. Suspects Volo and Lommy.

Now, I'm used to a crazily loud morm. There may indeed be time constraints, but even then I'd expect him to be more active than he has been. That said, a changed playing style cannot be used to cast guilt on somebody.

What can be used is that he has said so very little that it is incredibly difficult to get a picture of him. I suspect most people forgot about him.

Today's post does seem to be promising in offering some worthwhile content. Hopefully this will continue. I'll humour that hope and leave morm alone for now. If he doesnt shape up, I will go after him tomorrow though. I'm not asking him to be as loud as I know he can be - only to say things of actual worth, which he has thus far largely avoided.

[The Sixth Wizard]

[this post is merely here to break Shorty's chain]

[and yes I am a spoilsport]

[the guy who be short]

Izzy is interesting in that so many seem to suspect her a little, and nobody much. That failed bandwagon yesterday was a bit of a joke - more of a preservation of democracy than anything. Noggy, for example, leant his vote to Izzy although he suspected Kath more.

However, there may be something beneath all this moderate suspicion. Allons-y!

DAY 1:
Post 18 - In character stuff.
Post 94 - Lots of random information about a game called Baldur's gate. Then:

I don't agree that you should lynch the quiet ones to accomplish an end goal. I think they should be watched throughout the entire game. More often than not; the quiet ones tend to live longer than the more vocal ones

Of course she would say that! She is a quiet one. And the fact that quiet people live longer is just the reason I want to lynch them!
Post 119 - Votes xyzzy for not returning after his first post. This crucial vote condemns him and saves Menel.
DAY 2:
Post 137 - Says she voted xyzzy as he was the first person to pop into her head! Says she'll come back later. Doesn't.
DAY 3:
Post 273 - Talk about how many wolves there may be.


Well, this is enough for me to be willing to lynch Izzy, in the interests of the village rather than some ideal of democracy this time! Her vote for xyzzy at that crucial point is condemning, especially the way she tries to play it down later. Then there's the way her posts are often fairly chunky, but avoid saying anything whatsoever - she has voiced no actual suspicions, defended nobody, in all her words.

I think I know where my vote's going today...

[the guy who be short]

Since he broke my beautiful chain, I'll do Sixth next rather than Shasta. Then I have to leave so the other two will have to wait a while.

Day 1:
Post 36 - Says we should lynch a quiet player first. My kinda man!
Post 40 - Takes my "vote Fea" post seriously. Hehe. Well, he wasn't to know.
Post 114 - Votes durelin hurriedly as he has little time. Could potentially be an attempt to save Menel - after all, he should have had time to read Noggie's post attempting to orchestrate a lynching.
Day 2:
Post 134 - Gives an account of what Menel said. Says we should suspect Izzy who saved Menel... but what about him? He seemed to try with that vote of his.
Post 139 - Again attacks Izzy for saying xyzzy was the first to pop into her head.
Post 146 - Thinks Izzy guilty, Nogrod is not himself, Kath innocent, Not sure about Volo.
Post 223 - Says Kath, Boro and Noggy are most suspicious, votes Kath. But he said she was innocent in his last post! And unlike me, no reason for his change of heart. Seems to go with the flow here, worrying. Also, he hadn't mentioned Boro before.
DAY 3:
Post 280 - Lots of role-talk, suspects Lommy-Volo.
Post 286 - Ruins my chain.

Well, I'm not happy with Sixth. He flip-flops, goes back on what he said, and seems to go with the flow. I don't like his voting record either, the first seems an attempt to save menel, the second is a flip-flop influenced by others. I suspect him of wolvery.

[Mithalwen]

Here had a quick read no time to post till later.

[Volo]

And what seems pretty probable is that the two kills are organized by one band. And there is at least one great Seer-hunter in the band of Wolves.

It looks a bit improbable that both the Seer and the Seer's dream are killed by chance.

Argh. I'll be quick: This doesn't work as Menel wouldn't want to kill himself (if of course Durelin's death was triggered).

And good find there Aganzir, that makes me wonder.

I'm still suspecting Fea and Mith, but Sixth has also jumped out to look scary. Is he really playing here, or is he confident enough to just laugh and tell us that he's laughing. Now just look at his two last posts...


Going to look at what I promised before I fell asleep, and try keeping the promise.

[Nogrod]

That was a bad Night!

And my apologies for the wierd post earlier toDay. I don't know how I managed to send it in the first place as I thought I didn't...

I wrote a lengthy post and managed to destroy it and in frustration didn't have the energy to write it a second time (it was too late and I was getting a bit drunk ).

But to the issues then.

We either have still two bands of baddies left or then our assassin made a bad misjudgement. If it is the latter I would suggest the assassin would consider very carefully when to use her/his powers the next time.

I do agree with tgwbs that we should do well to lynch one of the quieter ones toDay - unless a better candidate can be named. Isabellkaya and The Sixth come to mind as my favourite candidates not the least because the way they acted in the end of Day1. Both could be seen as trying to save Menel. It's quite improbable that they both are wolves but I'd bet a small sum on another one of them to be one.

About Isabell-wagon yesterDay. My main reason for it was to create a differentiation in the voting. Everyone voting for Kath was just madness. You can't read a lot from the voting-record if everyone votes the same person.

Sadly it seems that we didn't learn much about that last moment diversion (those who took part were Boro, Aganzir, Fea and me).

Stated reasons for voting Isabell:

myself:

Well. If everyone votes the same person we have nothing to read toMorrow from the voting. It's the perfect hide-out for the wolves.

Not the least because with this rate of killings during the Nights we're losing our active players in one or two Nights and then the village is very quiet indeed...

she (Isabell) could be more cunning than I now grant her...

Even if I suspect Kath more I might try Isabell just for the future talking of this village

Boro:

If there's no other possible candidate besides Kath, I will refrain from voting for today. As any other vote would be a waste and I do not wish to contribute to the lynching of a person I believe is innocent.

Oh what the heck, since enough people are talking about Isabell (I think Legate also said he may vote for her) lets give this a shot.

Let's save Kath, I want to get this last second band-wagon lynch happening.

Aganzir:

This is not to say "let's not lynch Kath"

I could vote Isabell, but are there enough of us to kill her?

Fea:

Because I like Kath and she hasn't concerned me much.

[Volo]

I so hate Cobblers... :/

I can't really get a read on her. Reading through her other posts though, makes me think that Kath thought of Lommy, Nogrod and Rikae as Innocents. Boro as the Seer, I guess this can be said as the Seer is already dead. Guy is also somebody she might have thought as a Wolf.

This doesn't give us (or at least me) many hints, though. Unless she wasn't just a Cobbler, but also knew the identity of the Wolves or something.

Originally Posted by Kath, #216

Guilty:
Lommy
Nogrod
Sixth

Innocent:
Aganzir
Mith
Rikae
Boro

Don't know:
Volo
Legate
Guy
Izzie
morm
Gil
Fea
Shasta