Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[mormegil]

tgwbs -> Isabell
morm -> Lommy
Fea -> Gil
Volo -> Sixth
Mith -> Gil
Boro -> Fea (Isabell1, Lommy1, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Sixth -> Lommy (Isabell1, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Lommy -> Isabell (Isabell2, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Agan -> Isabell (Isabell3, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Isabell -> Feanor (Isabell3, Lommy2, Gil2, Fea2)
Shasta -> Gil (Isabell3, Lommy2, Gil3, Fea2)
Noggie -> Isabell (Isabell4, Lommy2, Gil3, Fea2)

Well 2 of the 3 Gil votes were by known innocents. Admittedly I could be wrong about Mith and if I am I deserve to be duped because she has me fooled. Just to make it clear to all and not to debate the point I am going under the assumption that we have a Bear and a pack of 3 wolves. We have a good guy who can kill at night too. That would explain why there was no third kill one night and a kill on the other. Also the good guy or the bear killed Menel. My guess is that the good guy killed Fea as she would have been a good suspect and neither the wolf nor bear would be likely to kill her.

I would feel safe to say that a wolf did not vote for Isabell yesterday but that doesn't mean the bear didn't. That is what complicates this.

So based on voting let's look shall we....

Morm votes the first vote for Lommy. I can't be too objective but I'll try. Lommy was suspicous at the time and continues to be so this vote is not overly significant but leading votes are always a bit suspicious especially when a wolf is killed later and the vote preceding it by an innocent TGWBS was for the wolf. It would seem that perhaps I was trying to avert an Isabell campaign, if so I was very unsuccessful and didn't really campaign strongly for Lommy's death per se.

Volo's vote for Sixth was an odd vote and never caught on. I haven't paid much attention to sixth as nothing has struck me as odd but again first votes are always a bit suspicious and what was said about me could be said here too. Was he trying to lead us astray. Gil may have been an easier choice though which leads us to....

Mith (dang my whole paragraph on Mith was erased) I'll write it again. I see Mith's vote for Gil as the most suspicious so far in as much as Gil is a nonfactor right now and it seems that this vote could have been an attempt to get an easy lynching of an easy candidate. However, would Mith be better served by voting for Lommy or Sixth and pushing a campaign in their direction? Even so, at this point would she realize how quickly the Izabell bandwagon would role. There was only one vote and not a huge amount of talk yet. I feel Mith is innocent and if she has fooled me I deserve to be duped and she deserves credit. I AM going to move her, in my mind, from innocent to slightly suspicious based on what I have said. I just realized in looking back up that Mith's vote was second which is slightly more suspcious because Gil was an easy kill and they almost succeded.

Boro votes for Fea which seems a bit premature to do so. I think this vote very suspicious just like I find Mith's. Fea could prove easy cannon fodder if somebody wanted her lynched and not many have played with her as much as I have (Boro and Mith are some that have) so Boro would realize that it would be easy to get the newer players to suspect her. However, I've been on Fea's team when we were wolves before and I saw her in action so I have a good read on her so that may be some excuse for Boro's vote. Boro is wise and cunning and makes an excellent baddie. He has single handedly beat everybody before so don't put anything past him...ever! He's a top suspect on my list.


I don't a lot of time remaining right now

What I am thinking now is that only those who tried to save Isabell last night are possible wolves. Any that voted for Isabell or others are possible bears so I think we pick off that last wolf today and focus on the bear tomorrow. Hopefully I will come back and do a bit more detail on the other voters too.

[mormegil]

Where is everybody?

Sixth's vote is tough to read because it could be from a wolf (if Lommy is innocent and I don't believe she's a wolf), bear or innocent. I haven't looked at him enough to really get a feel on him yet.


Lommy's vote for Isabell essentially exonerates her of lycanthropy in my mind as well as Agan and Noggie but doesn't eliminate them from being a bear. I would avoid the group that voted for Isabell yesterday as I already said. Hopefully I can review Boromir, Sixth, Volo and Mith in that order. I hope others would help me out on this and hope that people review me a bit more too.

[Boromir88]

I think it's time for me to spill everything. I hope this doesn't turn out to be a bad move, but I think now is the best time. There isn't much time left, and any known innocent (if you all can trust me) is going to give just one less person to have to think about voting for. The only thing is I wish I knew how many more baddies we have amongst us. But anyway...

it can't really be Wolf or Bear as they have kills every Night.~Volo

On there contraire, there is bear...moi. Though I promise I am a Great and good Bear, not a wicked Black Beorning that has turn to evil and kills for pure pleasure. Each night I have the choice of making a kill or guarding somebody (hence why Night 2 there were only 2 kills).

Night 1, Menel was my choice, I was thinking about guarding somebody, because I never want to make a dreadfully wrong choice for a kill. But, I talked myself into having the guts like Ang when he was the madman 007 assassin .

Night 2, I wish I had the guts again because Isabell was my main suspect, but I thought any choice would have just been a shot in the dark, so I decided to guard Mormegil, and not kill that night.

Night 3, I thought first about killing Gil, just so he would no longer be a distraction. Then I changed to Shasta because I thought Shasta's vote at the end looked extremely wolvish, but alas I made an error.

So, there you have it, I am the Great Bear, with the ability to kill someone or guard someone at night. I'm probably going to turn out to be wolf meat tomorrow night, but with all these kills each night, I know we don't have a lot of time. I thought the best thing to do was to reveal, to give everyone a known innocent (if everyone trusts me) and just one less person to have to think about voting for. Also, before I'm dead, I hope to take another wolf down with me, so anything as far as whom I shall kill Night will be of great help and I'll take into consideration.

(I admit having the foolish hope that maybe with two wolves dead, there would be just one kill per Night. It sems I couldn't have been more wrong.)~Thinlo

Perhaps it was like that one village with the Werewolf Packleader? Wasn't there something like the wolves got 2 kills until the Packleader was dead, or was the only one left?

[Thinlómien]

Hmmm... I'm inclined to believe Boro's claim. (Yet a little doubt remains in my mind. I mean, after the gifted-speculations which have taken place and growing suspicion against him, I find making such claim seems just somewhat shrug-worthy....) Well, I guess I'm going to believe him for now. He should die soon enough be he really innocent. (How comforting a thought. ) Besides, a good bear in Anduin Vale sounds just fitting.

Do we have a balck beorning, some evil power opposed to the good bear? Or do we just have two wolf teams? I'm leaning to thinking we have two wolf teams with two (hopefully just two, three would be a disaster) wolves in each. Thus, Menel and Izzie were in different teams, as there still continue to be at least two kills per Night.

Morm, I think a fellow wolf might have voted Izzie in order to look better. That has happened quite often. Also, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would have risked his/her neck by "trying to save" Izzie. (What "trying to save" votes there even were? The Izzie-wagon advanced quite rapidly and the only ones voting at the time of it, but not voting in it are dead. Makes me wonder...)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Thus, Menel and Izzie were in different teams, as there still continue to be at least two kills per Night.

But why would Izzie have saved Menel then? Or was her vote only random, as she said, and she didn't know Menel was a wolf?

I'm inclined to believe Boro, too. That explains also why all the kills were so brutal.
I think you could forget Gil. If he's a wolf and hasn't been contributing at all, I doubt Spm would let him win. That if anything would be unfair. But on the other hand, if the number of the wolves was as big as or bigger than the number of the contributing innocents, the wolves could just ignore Gil and decide in the thread who to lynch in order to win.
Anyway, maybe better if you try to catch a wolf? That at least improves our chances.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by morm

I would feel safe to say that a wolf did not vote for Isabell yesterday but that doesn't mean the bear didn't.

Apparently, the bear didn't.
However, I agree with Lommy that it's possible that also a wolf voted Izzie.

For two reasons:
1) Excluding tgwbs (dead & innocent) and me (innocent), there are still Lommy and Nogrod who voted for Izzie. I believe the both could vote a fellow wolf, but of those two I think Noggie is more suspicious. When he voted, it was already quite apparent that Isabell would die (she got three votes before Gil), and certainly Nogrod wouldn't try to save a fellow wolf by voting someone else when he has first said he'll probably vote Izzie.
2) If there are two wolf teams, a member of one could easily vote a member of the other. Especially if they don't know each other.

I think Izzie-voters should not be treated differently just because we happened to lynch a wolf.

[The Sixth Wizard]

I'm starting to think like morm now, that wondering what manifest evil we have is getting us off the track. What does it matter, Lommy, what variation of dastardly beasts we have after us? How will it affect our strategy? What we need to do is verify Beorn88's claim and find the evil guys.

Is there really only 11 of us?

*Are there* I do believe.

2) If there are two wolf teams, a member of one could easily vote a member of the other. Especially if they don't know each other.

True. We can't rule out that the wolves didn't vote for another wolf by mistake, or that there are none left. Annoyingly, this rules no-one out, if we just go by votes.

[Mithalwen]

Only time for a skim through .... but I do find it amusing that Lommie suspects me for being non-committal while Nogrod suspects me for certainty.....

Yet to decide about Boromir's alignment......

Ponders.... *goes for lunch and analgeasics*

[Volo]

Hah, Boro, I knew that would be the case and am very happy that it is. You deffinitely looked like the last Gifted (Ranger or Assassin), but now that you turn out to be both. Now that is good. Because that means we have two kills toDay, doesn't it?

As scary as the "M" in McDonalds. Worth attention:
Mithalwen - My top suspect, though I've let my attention down for some time. So many things to take into account...
Mormegil - I'm sure that Rikae and Legate didn't die just because they'd leave little trails. Of all the people, I think Mormegil would be the most capable in doing the deeds.

Worth more attention:
Nogrod - He is on the tip of a knife. I do feel like he's Innocent, unless there are two Wolf teams, and he being on Menel's side. Possible, but I think we should try finding the other Wolf first and see if we win.

Pretty much Innocentish:
Aganzir - The eyes of an Eagle finding all those clues in the narrations. If she's a Wolf, she deserves victory.
The Sixth Wizard - Well, since Izzie was evil, I'm pretty happy thinking that Sixth is Innocent.
Thinlómien - Lommy has pretty much flown out of my radar's reach. Though I'm very happy to think that she's Innocent. So far things have looked in her favour.

The Beauty and the Beast:
Volo - Innocent (and I wouldn't say that were I Wolf, just droppes off the possibility of playing a Gifted).
Boromir88 - As stated in the first lines of this post, I trust him, completely.

The evil behind it all:
Gil-Galad - Forget him, he's not in the game. Although if he is using the flaw SPM's rules and is a Wolf who just sends one PM in a Night and does nothing else, kudos. But you don't deserve victory! Forget him. If he wins, we don't lose and could just swallow our pride and accept it.

[Aganzir]

Nogrod, could you please explain these comments from Day 2? They keep troubling me.

Originally Posted by Noggie

The familiar logic of all the baddies knowing each other vs. all the blind goodies doesn't work here. . . . So possibly not two sides but three.

To me it seems that you're saying "Hi, I'm a wolf, where's the other team? I know you're out there, we could co-operate."

Originally Posted by Volo

The Beauty and the Beast:
Volo - Innocent (and I wouldn't say that were I Wolf, just droppes off the possibility of playing a Gifted).
Boromir88 - As stated in the first lines of this post, I trust him, completely.

I didn't know there were lovers in this game.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Morm, I think a fellow wolf might have voted Izzie in order to look better. That has happened quite often. Also, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would have risked his/her neck by "trying to save" Izzie. (What "trying to save" votes there even were? The Izzie-wagon advanced quite rapidly and the only ones voting at the time of it, but not voting in it are dead. Makes me wonder...)

There is truth in this Thinlo and if true it is likely that Nogrod would be the wolf. If he broke the tie for Isabell by voting for Gil it wold have only been too obvious perhaps. And voting for a third candidate to even tie it up in three way such as voting Lommy would be pointless as Isabell was the first to reach three votes and would have died. Thank you Lommy for reminding me of this. Too true and Nogrod is not out of suspcion of being a wolf or a black beorning. I highly doubt that Agan is a wolf in that his was the third vote for Isabell but an evil bear is a distinct possibility there.

I am going under the assumption that Boro is innocent as he says. The idea fits perfectly into what I've been saying all along. With that said it is important that we get a baddie tonight. That will give us a bit of breathing room as I speculate kills would drop to one a night. If we don't get one tonight the situation looks grave indeed, especially with Gil (likley innocent) not being around to help out one bit.

[Thinlómien]

Volo - how come you're so sure about the numbers of the gifted and the baddies? I mean, on what grounds do you assume that we have just one gifted left? And on what grounds do you assume we have two wolves around? Have I missed something or are you possibly a bit too quick to jump to assumptions?

I must say, morm's bugging me too. I mean, he seems to pretend to be more stupid than he is. I just feel his arguments are more full of holes than normally, and it troubles me.

As to the absence I talked about in the admin thread, I doubt it will exist as we're probably not going aboard (we've been switching whether we go or not for about a week now... ).

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Volo - how come you're so sure about the numbers of the gifted and the baddies? I mean, on what grounds do you assume that we have just one gifted left? And on what grounds do you assume we have two wolves around? Have I missed something or are you possibly a bit too quick to jump to assumptions?

Ok, I do admit that it was a bit quick to assume. I (and you yourself) don't believe there were six Wolves in total, that would be a bit too much. And anyway, if that is the case, we're already doomed (if the Wolves can win united)...

And I didn't have any need assuming we have more Gifteds. If that is the case, it's great. Anyway, I don't/didn't think we have more Gifteds.

At the moment I think we have (just to make myself clear):
- 2 Wolves, possibly (and probably) from opposite teams.
- 1 Ranger/Assassin, Boromir the Bear
- 6 Innocents

[Nogrod]

Whether one trusts Boro's claim or not one should do well not to vote for him toDay. If he actually is the assassin/ranger I don't believe there is a normal ranger as well. So the wolves (or whichever Godzillas) will kill him during the Night. In the best case he is able to defend himself or to take one baddie with him and in the worst he's just one innocent less. Those of us still alive will know all this toMorrow. So I would leave Boro be even if I'm not at all ready to put it past him to fool us completely here.

Right now I'm growing very suspicious of Mith. Her vote for Gil yesterDay looks pretty bad - even though both Fea and Shasta voted Gil as well. It's just a bad vote and one that a wolf would like to cast.

We should not forget that even though the victorius Isabell-wagon realised itself pretty late on the Day it was clearly something everyone knew was coming. Her getting lynched was no surprise to anyone as so many people had said that they would be voting her. So if Mith is (was) in cahoots with Isabell she would not have wished to vote for her but to bring forwards another candidate, Gil the easy kill that is...

[Nogrod]

Just a quick look at people here. I'll be able to play more nearer the end of the Day but now need to make dinner and clean up before my father comers to visit us.

Gil - let's leave him be. The odds are that he is an innocent and then counts on our numbers. I do agree with Volo here: if he is a wolf and wins he doesn't actually win. The moral victory would be ours then.

Boro - as I said let's see it with him toMorrow for the next Night will tell us a
lot about him anyway.

Aganzir and Lommy - they both feel genuine but I must admit that they have more or less flown under my radars and I would need to change that. I hope get a klook at them later toDay.

Morm - it's good to see morm back on action after those oneliner Days. Not one I would be happy to vote toDay as he can be a useful villager. But I need to read him a bit more closely before making any judgements.

Volo - as odd as always . He's one of those I find extremely hard to grasp (like Rune).

The Sixth - after Isabell turned out a wolf I think it highly unlikely that Sixth is a wolf as well (two wolves trying to save their mate just minutes apart from each other). But if the wolves (or whatever baddies there are) don't know about each other it could be possible though.

Mith - I'm getting suspicious of (see my earlier post). I'm going to read her later toDay to see whether my suspicions are worth something.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Nogrod, could you please explain these comments from Day 2? They keep troubling me.

To me it seems that you're saying "Hi, I'm a wolf, where's the other team? I know you're out there, we could co-operate."

In the quote I was actually just reminding us that we can't probably interpret the Nightly kills in traditional manner as there is a chance that the wolves (godzillas, whatever) don't know each other or that there may even be three sides and thence the logic is different. Now I would only add that the very same thing adheres to our interpretation of the Day's voting as well...

Even as we don't know the exact structure of this game there assumedly are two sets of baddies ranging from 1-3 each side. If they could win in cahoots the game would be highly inbalanced against us. And why then there being two different camps if they can win together? And if they can't they will be rivals to each other. And that is good news to us.

There being an actual competition between the baddies would make the game more even as well: lots of baddies around but rivalling each other. I think that would sound like a Spm game.

The only thing that kind of bothers me with this interpretation is that how come the baddies haven't killed any other baddies during the Nights? Just bad luck? That brings me to the question about who killed Menel in the first place? Boro said he did it and that sounds believable. But is he what he claims to be? Well, we'll see about that toMorrow.

Gah. Confusing...