Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[Nogrod]

I would be intertested to see what Boro has as his version of the matters. I mean there's a point in Lommy's interpretation of the Night's events... so why only one kill?

We have killed a host of wolves already: Menel, Isabellkya, Mith, Aganzir... and the baddie priestess Kath. There can't be an endless number of baddies around and as the kills suddenly went down to just one...

But I think we'd do well to construct this then.

Theory1)
So Mith and Isabellkya were a team and Mith tried to avoid
discussing her mate when she had made a fumble saving Menel who later turned out to be a wolf? It's no wonder Mith chose this issue of Menel-lynch as one she went after me as it was close to her heart.

Then it must be that Menel and Aganzir formed the other pair. Nicely played I say as at least at this moment I can't recall any exchanges between the two (and it's too late for me to go skimming through the whole thread right now).

Theory2)
Or then Isabell was in cahoots with Menel and actually tried to save her mate and was lynched for it.

Again, a nice play from Mith and Aganzir as I can't at the moment recall any open pointing at each other from either of them. And thinking of Mith she might have tried to duck the issue of a possible rivalling wolf (Isabell) just because she believes in fair play. That might also explain part of her frustration yesterDay...

Either way, these both theories look believable to me at least now even though I might say the first one is more believable..

So let's go a bit backwards then...

Last Night
dead: Aganzir
(remaining baddie: Boro?)

The Night before (Night3)
dead: Shasta, tgwbs, Fea
(remaining baddies: Mith-wolf, Aganzir-wolf, Boro-bear?)

Looks sensible to me without better theories to come forwards...

And earlier...

Night2
dead: Rikae, Legate (seer)
(baddies: Isabell & Mith - Aganzir - and Boro didn't he kill then?)

Night1
dead: Menel, Rune, Durelin (thief)
(baddies: Isabell & Mith - Menel & Aganzir - Boro)

Now there were only two kills on Night two. Boro said he involuntarily guarded morm that Night. I think that is one of the weak links in his story. Now why on earth this choice? (No offence morm but if you're earnest why would someone had picked you up as the one definitively innocent among the whole crowd?) Maybe he's a kind of baddie who can only kill every other Night? That would settle it - and not make the baddies too overwhelming in the first place. And looking at his spotting-capabilities this Night I would say he's a seer every other Night...

Or whatever.

Just waiting for a better explanation to come forwards.

EDIT: X'd with Sixth & Boro

[Boromir88]

Maybe he's a kind of baddie who can only kill every other Night? That would settle it - and not make the baddies too overwhelming in the first place. And looking at his spotting-capabilities this Night I would say he's a seer every other Night...~Nogrod

No seering ability. And I can kill as many nights in a row as I wish. I can't protect myself two straight nights and I can't guard the same person for two straight nights.

If you want something better than a 'theory' and that is the facts. I am a Bear with the powers of guarding somebody, protecting myself from attack, or killing someone. No seer, no thief, nothing else. Thats it. I win along with the village whether I'm dead or alive, so I could really care less if you lynch me today, but you won't win by doing it that I promise.

[Thinlómien]

Well, that sure provoked some reactions, like I wished.

Anyway, I think my theory makes sense. It might not be the truth, but it's the only sensible alternative I can come up with. There's just one weak link: why was there no wolf kill last Night? The answer is easy. Agan attacked Boro, but the real ranger (not some bluffing bear) fell for Boro's lies and protected him.

Boro, I'm sorry to say, but you fail to convince me. Your manner is not that of what you claim to be. It's that of a baddie's who is in a trap. (Your "calmness" feels wrong and you saying "it worked perfectly" just sounds too bad.) Secondly, your claim is unbelievable. What is that, a hunter+assasin that cannot die in the hands of wolves? Sounds a bit too invincible for any sensible game. (Even though, I'm not sure oif this is a sensible game but... )

Nogrod, there's a problem with your theory #2. According to my logic it can't be true, for if Menel and Isabell were one team, why would there have been three kills after they both had died...?

edit: xed with Boro

[Thinlómien]

So an invincible assassin+hunter+ranger? Sounds even more unbelievable...

[Thinlómien]

Boro, if you're on our side, why isn't this game over already?

[Nogrod]

It's funny Boro that you have always been the one to tell that if it walks like one and talks like one then it is one... and now the parts seem to have changed.

I mean it's quite sensible to believe that you're an intelligent baddie able to make some drastic moves and we should make our deductions. Just look at the claims you have made and the different twists of rules and balance of the game they need to presume are true. So there would have been at least six baddies aided by a seer-baddie or something (7 baddies from 20 so more than 1/3) facing only a seer and the chivalric invincible assassin/hunter/ranger/superman-Boro!

Believable? I mean use your own standards this time as well...

And to add: quoting a known wolf isn't the most trustworthy of sources... so everything Mith said yesterDay after she revealed must be read with a lots of caution. I wouldn't back any claim on them. Now how is it that you're doing it? An innocent would be very wary of using that kind of points to steer her/his thoughts as they most probably mislead in a way or another.

Originally Posted by Boro

And perhaps there was only one kill because the majority of the wolves had been killed?

Isn't this just what Lommy (and I) have been telling you. That the wolves have passed out, they're dead, extinguished, ex-wolves, gone to meet their maker... not just resting as you wish to make us believe.

But good to have you around to discuss this. I think I have a much more clearer picture about the possibilities now after you have defended yourself. I'll be back a bit later toDay

PS. Yes, everyone can say they were visited by the pink Beavers sent by Radagast... so please. I think that one argument makes you look more bad than the last Night's happenings as such... If you were true indeed you would not have used such a point but if you were a baddie so near victory you might slip a bit just to gain your goal?

EDIT: X'd with Boro's last one

[Boromir88]

if I cant convince anyone...lynch me I've done my job you won't win. I hope any innocent will appreciate what I've done afterwards. I'm done, this is only going to give me a headache

++Boromir88

[Boromir88]

Thinlo you want more? I was visited by a white deer sent by Radagast, how much of this do you suppose I'm just making up and pulling out of my arse? No I'm not calm, I'm irritated because you really have no clue.

Anyway, I'm done, I don't care if you kill me anymore I've done my duty...if you want anymore of my advice. After I'm lynched and you realize you still haven't won, lynch Thinlo, she seems all to desperate now and making a last ditch effort, after the attack failed.

As I propose there is one more wolf:

Perhaps the others will take out Boromir (thanks for your help in innocent killing my friend!)? Would be a pity to double up.~Mith

After Mith there was still more than one wolf. Aganzir and who else? And perhaps there was only one kill because the majority of the wolves had been killed?

[Boromir88]

What is that, a hunter+assasin that cannot die in the hands of wolves?~Thinlo

Umm...if the wolves killed me a night I did not protect myself, I would be dead...so that statement is flat out false.

And since this grand theory you come up with must be the only answer. I am going to ask you to take back and consider this. I mean Nogrod and The Sixth have had no real problems with quickly jumping to conclusions. However you are so certain this is the only answer that I am the sole bad guy therefor you kill me the village wins.

If I am this 'bad guy' why in the heck would I reveal yesterday. No one was suspecting me, everyone was thinking I was innocent. Why in the heck would I spend my time killing the wolves when they were also doing my job if I was this bad lone bear? Why would I bait the wolves into coming and attacking me at night? There were still 9 people in this village, and barely anyone was suspecting me. Plus there were multiple kills a night. If I am this lone baddie what do I have to gain from revealing myself (when I was seen as innocent) and I am baiting the wolves to come and attack me at night?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I am this 'bad guy' why in the heck would I reveal yesterday. No one was suspecting me, everyone was thinking I was innocent.

Just because of that! I know you're an intelligent player - a really good one. I know it.

Now what would have happened if people would have come to think: "now this Boro-man no one has suspected but he still lives, how come he's not dead?"

I think it has been only good to be under some suspicion as that kind of makes you sleep safer the Nights. But you had not that luxury of being suspected - so you had to figure out something to explain why you're not killed yet? It's perfectly sensible that the wolves had better killings to make - or then they knew your identity as their aid (which I do doubt) but anyhow being alive with no suspicions makes one loudmouith look very suspicious and thence I can see why you would take the gamble. And after all the other baddies are gone you're running free then?

And I think your timing was perfect indeed. Early enough to not let anyone else to start this reveal-fake -stuff but late enough to not seem too rushed with it. I bet you have thought this a lot during the last one or two days...

---
I just saw your vote... I'm not sure what to make of it. I wouldn't believe you're a bad loser so is it a trick of some sort? I wouldn't put that past you either. But it's quite early to make such acts as well - or just the right time indeed? A bit too dramatic then to be innocent? What else would make you look innocent if you think the points made are just pinning your treachery down?

I'm not saying I will will follow your vote but if nothing better comes about later toDay then I might join your vote.

Good night.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I am this 'bad guy' why in the heck would I reveal yesterday. No one was suspecting me, everyone was thinking I was innocent. Why in the heck would I spend my time killing the wolves when they were also doing my job if I was this bad lone bear? Why would I bait the wolves into coming and attacking me at night? There were still 9 people in this village, and barely anyone was suspecting me. Plus there were multiple kills a night. If I am this lone baddie what do I have to gain from revealing myself (when I was seen as innocent) and I am baiting the wolves to come and attack me at night?

Okay. I rethought this and thought it good to make this last point today (not toDay). Now this seems like a fair point but it all depends on the mechanics of this game.

So are there any wolves to attack you anymore or is this just a show-off?

A lone baddie might do pretty smartly to "reveal" himself as the gifted helper of the innocents. That would make him less prone to be lynched during the Days coming forwards when people start to frenzy over each other: "why's the game not ended? There's a wolf still around! Who is it? Let's lynch anyone, but not our gifted helper". That's what the people would say. I know I would be drawn to say so myself... if I actually believed in Boro's claim.

My vote is still pending but I need to have a look at the others tomorrow as I wake up (not toMorrow). I must say I agree with most of Lommy's points and am not easily driven to vote her toDay (if she's a some kind of a baddie she almost deserves the win then if she makes it). Of others I have no good picture at the moment as Boro has taken all my energy thus far - and I know that can be lethal to concentrate to only one person.

So I try to have a wider look as I wake up, but we (myself and Lommy) will have limitations in our participation (look at the admin thread).

[Boromir88]

I thank you for keeping an open-mind Nogrod. Now seeing someone actually post with a bit of thought and sanity I wish I didn't vote for myself. That came out of frustration, as I am extremely frustrated with all of this. I don't care if I am lynched, you'll all have to live with killing one of you gifteds that has been sent here by Radagast.

I won't lose hope just yet though...so here is all I have to offer.

Now, for some reason Thinlomien doubts all my powers of guarding, protecting myself, and killing. Obviously I can kill people, and I haven't guarded someone yet, but I can. Now the biggest doubt seems to come with protecting myself.

If anyone doubts my ability to protect myself why am I not dead and why is there no wolf kill? The only kill last night was mine. If I chose the kill option, the way any village works is the wolves still get their kill choice for the night as well. Well there is only one kill. As one of my powers was defined, I can protect myself from my attackers. Meaning if someone comes and attacks me and I chose to protect myself that night, I would kill one of my attackers and still be alive. However I am too honourable a person to protect myself 2 nights in a row. Again, if anyone is saying that I can't protect myself and I'm making all of this up, why was there no wolf kill then? Why was the only kill caused by me? I'll tell you why. Because the wolves chose to kill me, but I protected myself, and a wolf died. Exactly as I hoped would happen.

So, here has been my Day-to-day thoughts of how to handle this multi-powered role.

Night 1, suspicious of Menel's wolvery all day, he wasn't lynched so I killed him. Going into the next day I wanted to hint about my role in killing Menel so the wolves would come after me the next night and I could protect myself and kill another one.

Night 2, I said yesterday I guarded Mormegil...that was a flat out lie (which I will explain why later). That night I protected myself as I hoped the wolves would come after me.

Night 3, killed Shasta because I found the vote to be quite wolvish.

So, going into the day with all these kills happening at night, I wanted to set a trap. I would reveal my role, and 2 of my powers (Ranger and Assassin), yet keep my 3rd power secret (which means I had to come up with a lie of what I did for Night 2); knowing that if the village accepted my known innocence the wolves would surely come after me during Night 4 and therefor I can protect myself. Since it was too risky to make a kill choice, I wanted the wolves to attack me. Like I said, this time my trap worked.

I honestly have no clue why there was no other kill besides mine last night. But I am not the last villain. Lynch me if you like, it will only favor whomever the last bad guy is.

Yes Nogrod, I am aware I can be a master manipulator, if that's what you think I'm doing now so be it. I've said everything I've needed to and can do no more. And any person can come on here and start saying 'well you're killing the wolves off to make yourself look better and more innocent.' Yaddah-yaddah-yaddah, but I'm sure you'll all ignore the fact that this entire time I've also been trying to bait the wolves into attacking me. Now if I am a lone bear out for my own victory, why have I been trying to get spotted by the wolves why have I been trying to make them attack me?

An innocent would be very wary of using that kind of points to steer her/his thoughts as they most probably mislead in a way or another.~Nogrod

I am not looking at anything Mithalwen said to people and her interaction with individual people. I know as a wolf she would be stirring things around trying to confuse us. But I mean come on, Mith this entire time has been nit picking Sauce about his linguistics. Do you honestly think if there was only one wolf left she would have said 'the others will get Boromir tonight' wouldn't she have said 'my partner will get Boromir tonight?' I know she is purely out to confuse, but just stop and think Mith obviously was saying she had more than one partner still alive. The fact remains that the wolves tried to get me last night, but I stopped them and killed one. And I think the reason we haven't won yet is because there is still one wolf out there.

I will say I think Nogrod and The Sixth are innocent and any other innocent I would trust their judgement in the days to come.