Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[mormegil]

Volo, our thoughts are very similar except on Lommy.

The dead:

The Saucepan Man - Slaughtered and boiled up in a spicy ghoulash on Night zero.
xyzzy - Got bored of the role-based banter and hung himself quietly on Day 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Meneltarmacil - Fatally wounded in sooth he was and crawled awaye to find ye deathe in ye woodes on Nighte 1 (Werewolfe)
Rune Son of Bjarne - Hunted and added to his own trophy collection on Night 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Durelin - Spied on things which should not be seen and got hung for it on Night 1 (Thief)
Kath - Burned at the stake and spurned by her Lord on Day 2 (Priestess of Sauron)
Rikae - Tickled mercilessly and died with a smile on her face on Night 2 (Oridnary Innocent)
Legate of Amon Lanc - Underwent radical optical surgery and lost his life and his foresight on Night 2 (Druid)
Isabellkya - Mometarily caught off guard by a darting fox and set upon by the angry mob on Day 3 (Werewolf)
Shastanis Althreduin - Had the life squeezed from his Half human, half equine form on Night 3 (Oridnary Innocent)
the guy who be short - Consumed and reduced to nothing but bare bones on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent)
Feanor of the Peredhil - Brutally attacked yet lived long enough to write her bloody epitaph on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent).
Mithalwen - Went down fighting in a dubious pastiche of British classic comedy and was summarily dismembered by a unanimous motion of the general assembly on Day 4 (Werewolf).
Aganzir Dead Night 4 (Werewolf)

The living:

Mormegil
Gil-Galad
Volo - the very hairy delegate from as far as it gets
Nogrod - the moody delegate from the Witch-burners' village who is ready and willing to form a theory to suit his feelings whatever the facts ...
Boromir88 - the filibuster delegate from Laketown, whose geography is not that good
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien - the Delegate of INSTRAW

I thought that would be helpful to remind us.

As I see it, Boro is telling the truth everything just fits so well that I can't see it as false. Boro is cunning on on either team he is on and I see him as good and will treat him thusly. I can sense the frustration in his posts. I have been there. I once declared myself the hunter and a wolf did too. I was lynched and was very frustrated by it all.

Anyway, now it seems to make sense to try and figure out what we are up against. On DAY 1 and 2 it seemed premature but now it it vital. My going theory is that we have 5 wolves one of them being the Alpha. 2 kills per night plus Boro's ability to kill. It makes pretty good sense at what has been going on up to this point. We have eliminated the Alpha wolf. It was either Mith or Aganzir, this truly depends on who is the remaining wolf. If Mith were the Alpha then the remaining wolf could be anybody, if Aganzir were then the likley candidate is Gil and that would explain why there wasn't a kill last night other than the attempted on by Aganzir.

What I would recommend is going today as though Mith were the Alpha and we still have one active wolf out there and if nothing happens tonight I would consider it to be Gil, Boro that means you either protect or kill Gil.

Other than Gil, Sixth and Lommy seem most suspicious to me. Volo seems less so because our thoughts seem to be similar. Noggie, I'm not sure about and Boro is innocent to me.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boro

Again, if anyone is saying that I can't protect myself and I'm making all of this up, why was there no wolf kill then?

Like I said, just because there's a real ranger who did protect you.

Originally Posted by Boro

Why in the heck would I spend my time killing the wolves when they were also doing my job if I was this bad lone bear?

Originally Posted by Volo

If he's lying about the counter-attack skill, then why is Aganzir dead?? I really doubt that Boro would have chosen her as his target so it must have been a counter-attack.

I think that (as funny as it sounds) he might have thought that she seems the least wolvish and thus killed her, because I guess he'd like to keep the wolves around so that his revealing wouldn't backfire...

Originally Posted by Boro

Why would I bait the wolves into coming and attacking me at night?

Now that is a fair point. I don't know. Maybe you do have some secret ability. Or maybe you thought your claim wouldn't be agreed with and as some people would suspect you the wolves would leave you around...? Or...? Anyway, even if that is a hole in my theory, I still think yours has even more holes.

I think a gifted wouldn't vote himself. Even if he was a hunter. On the other hand, it is difficult to see a bear voting himself either.

Originally Posted by Volo

Well, have you forgotten the subject called Gil-Galad completely. Wouldn't that be an answer to why only one person died last Night?

A fair point as well. But I doubt Sauce would have plagued this village by five wolves, a black priestess and a bear. Or even with five wolves and a priestess. I mean, it would be mathematically very unprobable that we would win if they got two kills per Night and we were to lynch five of them without double-lynches...

Originally Posted by Boro

However you are so certain this is the only answer that I am the sole bad guy therefor you kill me the village wins.

I'm not certain. I was certain in my first post toDay because I wanted to provoke a reaction from you and seems it worked well... I'm open to other ideas, but right now I see my theory as the one that makes most sense and thus I believe in it. While the problems of my theory center around your personal behaviour that seems unbelievable according to my theory (or so you claim), the problems of others center around an unbelievable game structure and I think that's far worse a flaw.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Like I said, just because there's a real ranger who did protect you.

Unless you are the Ranger how can you be so certain? This seems far more improbable coupled with the fact that Aganzir is dead.

Originally Posted by Lommy

A fair point as well. But I doubt Sauce would have plagued this village by five wolves, a black priestess and a bear. Or even with five wolves and a priestess. I mean, it would be mathematically very unprobable that we would win if they got two kills per Night and we were to lynch five of them without double-lynches...

See this is why I feel you are a wolf! It is not improbable that we win with 5 wolves against us. We almost have. The bear you speak of, if it is Boro as I believe, he is a good bear and is a great asset to the village. That helps to even the odds and keeps balance.

Lommy seems so certain and is trying to convince us all that no more wolves exist. Why? Because, I believe, she is the last wolf. Mith was the Alpha wolf and Lommy is the only one left and grasping straws here and she is doing anything and everything she can to discredit Boromir. I find Boromir's story to fit in much better with the events and Lommy's incredulity as extremely wolvish. Unless there are some major changes I will be voting Lommy. If as Lommy says there is another ranger I suggest they seriously consider revealing themselves. You may do more good as a known innocent than the possibility of stopping a wolf attack.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by morm

Anyway, now it seems to make sense to try and figure out what we are up against. On DAY 1 and 2 it seemed premature but now it it vital.

Exactly. Now the theory of five initial wolves with one of them being the alpha-wolf sounds reasonable. That would mean that we're here in a situation of six against one. And if Boro is true we have one extra-kill possibility every Night (although in that case Boro should really consider his choices).

But with six goodies against one baddie we could indeed afford to lynch Gil now. If he turns out innocent we still would have four against one toMOrrow - and failing then two against one the last Day. And if he's the sneaky baddie indeed he'd get what he deserves and we'd win. Anyhow that problem would be solved then.

But as morm said, the correct assessment of our situation is vital here for if we have more than one baddie left we're in deep trouble and would have to act more drastically toDay. But the idea of six (or more) wolves roaming in the village aided by a priestess with only a seer and a Boro on the innocent side sounds a bit unfair starting position for the village. A true bloodbath yes... but as someone noted: with those numbers the villagers couldn't afford even one misslynch and that's a pretty tough requirement in the beginning of the game.

[Thinlómien]

There's seven of us now. That's enough to let Boro live for one more Day, if we had some way of proving if he's true during the Night. I'm just afraid we don't have a means and not lynching him today would at worst (ie if he's a baddie/independent) more dead innocents. I have the feeling that if we don't lynch him toDay, we won't lynch him at all, and that might prove fatal...

Actually, I think Boro might be killed next Night in case he can't protect himself anymore (if he ever could do that) and there's no ordinary ranger. So, on second thought, I agree with Volo, let's leave killing him to the wolf if there's any and if no one dies we either have a ranger who should come out and say s/he's around toMorrow or Boro's a baddie and we should lynch him then. In either case I guess we can afford this tactics.

Originally Posted by morm

Unless you are the Ranger how can you be so certain? This seems far more improbable coupled with the fact that Aganzir is dead.

If you assume that Boro is evil/independent and there have been four wolves and a priestess and just one gifted (the druid) it would be logical to assume there was a ranger as well. So, what makes sense depends on the viewpoint. And of course I don't know whether there's a ranger or not. I'm just assuming. In case Boro's telling the truth I don't think there (necessarily) is a ranger. But in case he's evil then I'm pretty sure there is.

So, I agree to go on toDay on the assumption there's one wolf left and a good bear, even though it feels a bit unprobable. That will be more fruitful use of the Day than arguing about Boro's identity in case I'm wrong and doesn't spoil anything in case I'm right.

So: if there was still a wolf around, who would it be? (I'm going on the assumption that there was originally just 5 wolves, not 6, because while 5 wolves would be a highly challenging threat, 6 wolves is just too much.)

It might be Gil. We can't know. I'm not 100% sure can we lynch him though since we might need to use toMorrow's lynch to Boro.

Volo and Nogrod seem innocent to me. Aganzir felt innocent to me too. And they've all felt innocent the same way to me all the time (except occasional nagging suspicion) and it troubles me because I might be trusting them simply because they are people I know from RL and so I might unconsciously think "s/he's a nice guy, there's no reason to suspect him/her". The things should not be so, since two people out of seven is almost the third of the village, and not being able to trust one's own opinion about 33% of the people surely is a bad thing... Anyway, ignoring that psychic wobbling, I'm ready to say they feel innocent. Their reasoning is innocentish, I think.

Now morm... He could be either way. I have the feeling that he's clashing with me again and that usually happens when we're both innocents. He seems pretty genuine, but the things he says he could so well say if he was a wolf as well...

Now Sixth. He's quite suspicious I think. He jumped all too eagerly on my case against Boromir. A wolf could do that. And I can see a wolf-Sixth doing that. On the other hand, he's still somewhat newbie to this game and when some relatively experienced ww-player (like me) presents a theory with certainity, it's easy just agree. (I did that in my first game. But then again, this is definitely not Sixth's first game.) He has been quite slipping under people's radar, maybe purposfully and some of his votes have been a bit questionable... I could vote him toDay.

And as to the alpha wolf question, I'd rather think that as long as there were three or more wolves, they'd get 2 kills per Night and when there is just 2 or 1 of them, they get just one kill. I think it would be more sensible than having an alpha-wolf around...

(Sorry for the flip-flopping/illogicalness, I just thought while writing so this posts kind of records my thinking process rather than presents ready thoughts...)

[Nogrod]

Okay.

We're off to our summer cottage.

++ Gil-Galad

I believe we can afford to get rid of him now. If we don't do it toDay it's a lot tougher choice toMorrow.

Two reasons.

I can't imagine we had six or more wolves so there's only one left. That means we are six against one. There's all the sense in getting rid of the insecurity Gil creates in this village. All the others can be read but with him it's just pure chance.

I think Boro's defences sound more genuine than not (especially his last one) now as I have read them through after sleeping - and if he is a goodie he will most probably die the next Night. That kind of leaves me with no especially good candidate and as I have no time to start rereading & analysing everyone around I feel more comfortable with lynching Gil toDay and doing the analyses toMorrow on those left.

[Thinlómien]

I just calculated that whatever the case, we can afford lynching Gil toDay, even though if there's still one wolf in this village, the last Day might be a Day when there's one wolf and two innocents alive...

++Gil-Galad