WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 06-29-2007, 06:35 AM

"You're right and you're wrong. Random lynch is better than no lynch as it gives you a chance of 2:11. Correct. But lynching someone who is about to die anyway gives you the very same possibility. Not more, not less. I have never suggested that we do not lynch anyone. That idea was your own fabrication. I have only said that with no better candidates we should try our "random"-lynch (2:11 chances) with someone who might die anyhow and thence not give the wolves a kind of extra kill...

About yesterDay's voting. Mac voted a minute before the deadline and I crossposted with him - and Brinn's vote came three minutes before the deadline while I was writing my own post. So there was basically no time to try and convince anyone over anything.

But why I didn't vote for Shasta? Well, let me ask you, why should I have voted for him? He was a goner one minute before the deadline whatever I did or did not. So basically my vote had no significance whatsoever - and as I had said earlier, I had nothing against lynching Shasta back then so his lynching was okay for me and thence I had no reason to try and change the things in any way (not that I could have done that in the first place). That's why I decided to try to help myself for the Night as I suspected you the most of those who had actually played on Day1.

So that was not personal priorities over the common preservation as I had no chance to make a difference in the lynching at that moment. It was an attempt at personal preservation after there was nothing I could do anymore to influence the voting-result.

But now I finally need my nap..."

Rikae · 06-29-2007, 07:06 AM

"This is strange. If I recall correctly, Nogrod said:

"About yesterDay's voting. Mac voted a minute before the deadline and I crossposted with him"

but then:

"But why I didn't vote for Shasta? Well, let me ask you, why should I have voted for him? He was a goner one minute before the deadline whatever I did or did not. So basically my vote had no significance whatsoever - and as I had said earlier, "

How did he know his vote had no significance, if he cross-posted with Mac?"

Rikae · 06-29-2007, 07:24 AM

"A few other things I'd like to mention...
Isabell's response to me doesn't decrease my suspicion of her. In these types of situations, the behavior of one's ancestors can be a very good predictor of one's own behavior - to the point that one might say the ancestors are indeed here. One does not live as long as I have without observing such things.
Besides, you persist in suspecting Beleg and Turin, which is not helpful; and your tone feels quite defensive, though you criticize Nogrod for defending himself. It is not entirely true that we should not be thinking of ourselves; if Nogrod is innocent, losing him would be a worse blow to the village than losing certain others.

Lhuna, perhaps you're stressed about having your kill thwarted last night? I don't think I care for your open speculation about the identities of our protectors. Why would an innocent do such a thing? You are wise enough to know better, I think.

Xyzzy has spoken only enough to remain alive, which annoys me. I doubt a wolf would sleep continuously, to the point of being killed by the curse Guy mentioned; but speaking once, and unhelpfully at that, is more likely wolf behavior. The post itself felt innocent enough, but the pattern of oversleeping does not; or, even if innocent, is shameful.

Now, I wouldn't mind a little of that stew..."

the guy who be short · 06-29-2007, 07:24 AM

Guy woke unexpectedly from his sleep, hearing the end of Nogrod's oration.

"Nogrod," he said, "voting for somebody who is going to die anyway is the same as voting for nobody, because you're not lynching anybody extra. If you like, view it as such. My way, we vote for somebody with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf, and then somebody else dies automatically with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf. We have a 4/11 chance of lynching a wolf there. However, your way, because only one person is lynched, we have only a 2/11 chance of getting a wolf. In effect, voting for somebody who will die anyway is an abstention.

Rikae - I have looked over the voting record, and Mac did say he would vote for Shasta long before he actually did. So Noggie did know his vote was useless - I checked, and his was the last vote that could have been cast (barring other retractions) aside from Mith and the no-showers xyzzy and Isa.

What you say, Noggie, reassures me very much. It seems I was wrong to say you put self-preservation first, and I apologise. I still disagree with you about lynching somebody who would die, but that is now a moot point as it no longer has relevance to our community.

I must say, I find Nogrod quite innocen now. Which leaves me in a predicament, as I must vote soon, have no time to mull over what everybody else has said again (it being my nap time) and must vote in two hours or not at all.

I will, after all, probably go for a quiet person. They are too dangerous as they give us nothing to go on. At this moment, xyzzy seems likely once again, more so than Izzy, who is nowcontributing something again.

Fare ye well, my fellows. Goodnight for now."

He fell asleep again. Rikae looked at him funny and muttered smething about narcolepsy.

Rikae · 06-29-2007, 07:41 AM

"Guy said: My way, we vote for somebody with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf, and then somebody else dies automatically with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf. We have a 4/11 chance of lynching a wolf there.

Are you sure? That doesn't sound right to me...

Isabell is contributing, yes, but, if you ask me, she isn't thereby making herself less suspicious - and we can do better than merely voting for the quietest person among us; everyone has spoken, so suspicion can play a role in our decisions.

In fact,
++Isabellkya"

the guy who be short · 06-29-2007, 08:21 AM

Guy poked Rikae - it was only fair, she kept poking everybody else with that stick of hers. "Yes," he said, "it is right, if every one of us has an equal chance of being a wolf, and we want to maximize wolf-killings, it makes more sense to lynch more people.

However," he continued, "I agree with what you have said concerning the Lhunatic. It is never conducive to ponder the gifteds aloud, and you are right to say she should know better. This gives me reason to worry about her. I must say, Rikae, that your clear manner makes me think you innocent, despite your staff-related violence issues...

However, I am less sure of your suspicion of Izzy. Her confusion about Beleg and Turin may be due to her being a foreigner who does not well know their nature. What does worry me about her is her reticence in suspecting anybody - thus far she has only displayed mild suspicion of Nogrod.

It is indeed vexing that xyzzy has said only one thing, and very little therein. I do not understand his suspicion of Mith and his suspicion of me seems a knee-jerk reaction. I think, once again, he will be most likely to get my vote toDay."

Rikae nodded and poked the sleeping body of xyzzy with her stick. It mumbled a little, but didn't wake up, so she sighed and gave up.

Rikae · 06-29-2007, 09:01 AM

Rikae shook her head at Guy's reply.
"Everyone also has an equal chance of being innocent, though. A random lynch has a 9/11 chance of killing an innocent.
By your ...innovative... formula, two random deaths have a 18/11 chance of killing an innocent; therefore either your math is wrong, or your intentions are."
With that, Rikae stuck her tongue out at Guy.

the guy who be short · 06-29-2007, 09:31 AM

"Hmm. You've got me there, Rikae. Let me have a think...

If we kill two people, that chance that both are wolves is (2/11)^2 = 4/121 = 3.3%

The chance that one is a wolf and the other is not is 2(2/11x9/11) = 36/121 = 29.8%

The chance of no wolves is (9/11)^2 = 81/121 = 66.9%

Now, if we only killed one person, the chance of a wolf is 2/11 = 18%, which is far lower than the 33.1% we'd expect if we lynched two people.

The maths may have been slightly off (3.2% overestimation in fact) but the results are still the same.

All of this, as I've said, now being a moot point." Guy stuck his tongue out at Rikae, but she swiftly hit him with her stick and denounced his frivolity.

His brain steaming from the calculation, and his leg from the staff, Guy stepped outside for a drink from the pool before returning quickly..

Macalaure · 06-29-2007, 08:24 AM

"I'm afraid I have to remain on a tangent, but Nogrod's answer to me is not satisfactory and I don't have anything better to add to our cause.

Nogrod said:

Thinking that the wolves were really intelligent and managed to pick a good kill for them and Beleg just happened by chance to be on their way is totally unbelievable the odds being 1:11.

I did not say that. Maybe the wolves did not take the obvious choice and our dear Strongbow expected that and protected the person which looked like the most obvious kill for somebody who didn't want to make an obvious kill? This is far from impossible.
But even if you are right and the wolves picked a bad and obvious kill, then who do you think was this unlucky/lucky person? I mean, there is more than one who was considered innocent by the majority (what you said was the wolves' reasoning). I don't see only one obvious choice, which, obviously, makes the choice rather unobvious.
Not only do you not have the premises to prove your theory, your theory itself is also not very applicable, I'm afraid.
And saying that most probably one "non-dilettant" outlaw is among the wolves additionally undermines it, unless it is Mith, of course.

Right now, I am somewhat suspicious of Nogrod. His vote was strange, I have never experienced any of his fore-fathers to be so defensive about his actions and he seems to enjoy talking about minor subjects very much (f.ex. the theory about whether to lynch silent players or not), which is suspicious even though it is in character for him. I could also easily imagine that the reason he tries to convince us that the wolves are sleepy and inexperienced outlaws is because he himself has just been outsmarted by bow-dropping Beleg. But this doesn't fit into one picture with his pointing out that Turin might be a sleepy one, too. Therefore I remain only "somewhat" suspicious.*

Guy, Lhuna, Brinn and Rikae all seem decently innocentish to me at the moment, which is slightly disturbing. Of Mith I cannot say anything and Gil is away. I can understand Rikae's suspicion of Isabellkya, but I'm not sure whether I share it.

As I already said, I still feel very Day-One-ish today..."

*in another time, ages from now, this little paragraph would have been infested with little yellow faces.

(x-ed with the Guy)

06-29-2007, 07:24 AM	#3
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	"A few other things I'd like to mention... Isabell's response to me doesn't decrease my suspicion of her. In these types of situations, the behavior of one's ancestors can be a very good predictor of one's own behavior - to the point that one might say the ancestors are indeed here. One does not live as long as I have without observing such things. Besides, you persist in suspecting Beleg and Turin, which is not helpful; and your tone feels quite defensive, though you criticize Nogrod for defending himself. It is not entirely true that we should not be thinking of ourselves; if Nogrod is innocent, losing him would be a worse blow to the village than losing certain others. Lhuna, perhaps you're stressed about having your kill thwarted last night? I don't think I care for your open speculation about the identities of our protectors. Why would an innocent do such a thing? You are wise enough to know better, I think. Xyzzy has spoken only enough to remain alive, which annoys me. I doubt a wolf would sleep continuously, to the point of being killed by the curse Guy mentioned; but speaking once, and unhelpfully at that, is more likely wolf behavior. The post itself felt innocent enough, but the pattern of oversleeping does not; or, even if innocent, is shameful. Now, I wouldn't mind a little of that stew..." Last edited by Rikae; 06-29-2007 at 07:25 AM. Reason: OOC

06-29-2007, 09:01 AM	#7
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Rikae shook her head at Guy's reply. "Everyone also has an equal chance of being innocent, though. A random lynch has a 9/11 chance of killing an innocent. By your ...innovative... formula, two random deaths have a 18/11 chance of killing an innocent; therefore either your math is wrong, or your intentions are." With that, Rikae stuck her tongue out at Guy. Last edited by Rikae; 06-29-2007 at 09:09 AM. Reason: stupid typo

06-29-2007, 06:35 AM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	"You're right and you're wrong. Random lynch is better than no lynch as it gives you a chance of 2:11. Correct. But lynching someone who is about to die anyway gives you the very same possibility. Not more, not less. I have never suggested that we do not lynch anyone. That idea was your own fabrication. I have only said that with no better candidates we should try our "random"-lynch (2:11 chances) with someone who might die anyhow and thence not give the wolves a kind of extra kill... About yesterDay's voting. Mac voted a minute before the deadline and I crossposted with him - and Brinn's vote came three minutes before the deadline while I was writing my own post. So there was basically no time to try and convince anyone over anything. But why I didn't vote for Shasta? Well, let me ask you, why should I have voted for him? He was a goner one minute before the deadline whatever I did or did not. So basically my vote had no significance whatsoever - and as I had said earlier, I had nothing against lynching Shasta back then so his lynching was okay for me and thence I had no reason to try and change the things in any way (not that I could have done that in the first place). That's why I decided to try to help myself for the Night as I suspected you the most of those who had actually played on Day1. So that was not personal priorities over the common preservation as I had no chance to make a difference in the lynching at that moment. It was an attempt at personal preservation after there was nothing I could do anymore to influence the voting-result. But now I finally need my nap..."

06-29-2007, 07:06 AM	#2
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	"This is strange. If I recall correctly, Nogrod said: "About yesterDay's voting. Mac voted a minute before the deadline and I crossposted with him" but then: "But why I didn't vote for Shasta? Well, let me ask you, why should I have voted for him? He was a goner one minute before the deadline whatever I did or did not. So basically my vote had no significance whatsoever - and as I had said earlier, " How did he know his vote had no significance, if he cross-posted with Mac?"

06-29-2007, 07:24 AM	#4
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Guy woke unexpectedly from his sleep, hearing the end of Nogrod's oration. "Nogrod," he said, "voting for somebody who is going to die anyway is the same as voting for nobody, because you're not lynching anybody extra. If you like, view it as such. My way, we vote for somebody with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf, and then somebody else dies automatically with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf. We have a 4/11 chance of lynching a wolf there. However, your way, because only one person is lynched, we have only a 2/11 chance of getting a wolf. In effect, voting for somebody who will die anyway is an abstention. Rikae - I have looked over the voting record, and Mac did say he would vote for Shasta long before he actually did. So Noggie did know his vote was useless - I checked, and his was the last vote that could have been cast (barring other retractions) aside from Mith and the no-showers xyzzy and Isa. What you say, Noggie, reassures me very much. It seems I was wrong to say you put self-preservation first, and I apologise. I still disagree with you about lynching somebody who would die, but that is now a moot point as it no longer has relevance to our community. I must say, I find Nogrod quite innocen now. Which leaves me in a predicament, as I must vote soon, have no time to mull over what everybody else has said again (it being my nap time) and must vote in two hours or not at all. I will, after all, probably go for a quiet person. They are too dangerous as they give us nothing to go on. At this moment, xyzzy seems likely once again, more so than Izzy, who is nowcontributing something again. Fare ye well, my fellows. Goodnight for now." He fell asleep again. Rikae looked at him funny and muttered smething about narcolepsy.

06-29-2007, 07:41 AM	#5
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	"Guy said: My way, we vote for somebody with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf, and then somebody else dies automatically with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf. We have a 4/11 chance of lynching a wolf there. Are you sure? That doesn't sound right to me... Isabell is contributing, yes, but, if you ask me, she isn't thereby making herself less suspicious - and we can do better than merely voting for the quietest person among us; everyone has spoken, so suspicion can play a role in our decisions. In fact, ++Isabellkya"

06-29-2007, 08:21 AM	#6
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Guy poked Rikae - it was only fair, she kept poking everybody else with that stick of hers. "Yes," he said, "it is right, if every one of us has an equal chance of being a wolf, and we want to maximize wolf-killings, it makes more sense to lynch more people. However," he continued, "I agree with what you have said concerning the Lhunatic. It is never conducive to ponder the gifteds aloud, and you are right to say she should know better. This gives me reason to worry about her. I must say, Rikae, that your clear manner makes me think you innocent, despite your staff-related violence issues... However, I am less sure of your suspicion of Izzy. Her confusion about Beleg and Turin may be due to her being a foreigner who does not well know their nature. What does worry me about her is her reticence in suspecting anybody - thus far she has only displayed mild suspicion of Nogrod. It is indeed vexing that xyzzy has said only one thing, and very little therein. I do not understand his suspicion of Mith and his suspicion of me seems a knee-jerk reaction. I think, once again, he will be most likely to get my vote toDay." Rikae nodded and poked the sleeping body of xyzzy with her stick. It mumbled a little, but didn't wake up, so she sighed and gave up.

06-29-2007, 09:31 AM	#8
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	"Hmm. You've got me there, Rikae. Let me have a think... If we kill two people, that chance that both are wolves is (2/11)^2 = 4/121 = 3.3% The chance that one is a wolf and the other is not is 2(2/11x9/11) = 36/121 = 29.8% The chance of no wolves is (9/11)^2 = 81/121 = 66.9% Now, if we only killed one person, the chance of a wolf is 2/11 = 18%, which is far lower than the 33.1% we'd expect if we lynched two people. The maths may have been slightly off (3.2% overestimation in fact) but the results are still the same. All of this, as I've said, now being a moot point." Guy stuck his tongue out at Rikae, but she swiftly hit him with her stick and denounced his frivolity. His brain steaming from the calculation, and his leg from the staff, Guy stepped outside for a drink from the pool before returning quickly..

06-29-2007, 08:24 AM	#9
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	"I'm afraid I have to remain on a tangent, but Nogrod's answer to me is not satisfactory and I don't have anything better to add to our cause. Nogrod said: Thinking that the wolves were really intelligent and managed to pick a good kill for them and Beleg just happened by chance to be on their way is totally unbelievable the odds being 1:11. I did not say that. Maybe the wolves did not take the obvious choice and our dear Strongbow expected that and protected the person which looked like the most obvious kill for somebody who didn't want to make an obvious kill? This is far from impossible. But even if you are right and the wolves picked a bad and obvious kill, then who do you think was this unlucky/lucky person? I mean, there is more than one who was considered innocent by the majority (what you said was the wolves' reasoning). I don't see only one obvious choice, which, obviously, makes the choice rather unobvious. Not only do you not have the premises to prove your theory, your theory itself is also not very applicable, I'm afraid. And saying that most probably one "non-dilettant" outlaw is among the wolves additionally undermines it, unless it is Mith, of course. Right now, I am somewhat suspicious of Nogrod. His vote was strange, I have never experienced any of his fore-fathers to be so defensive about his actions and he seems to enjoy talking about minor subjects very much (f.ex. the theory about whether to lynch silent players or not), which is suspicious even though it is in character for him. I could also easily imagine that the reason he tries to convince us that the wolves are sleepy and inexperienced outlaws is because he himself has just been outsmarted by bow-dropping Beleg. But this doesn't fit into one picture with his pointing out that Turin might be a sleepy one, too. Therefore I remain only "somewhat" suspicious.* Guy, Lhuna, Brinn and Rikae all seem decently innocentish to me at the moment, which is slightly disturbing. Of Mith I cannot say anything and Gil is away. I can understand Rikae's suspicion of Isabellkya, but I'm not sure whether I share it. As I already said, I still feel very Day-One-ish today..." *in another time, ages from now, this little paragraph would have been infested with little yellow faces. (x-ed with the Guy)