WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Rikae · 06-29-2007, 07:41 AM

"Guy said: My way, we vote for somebody with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf, and then somebody else dies automatically with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf. We have a 4/11 chance of lynching a wolf there.

Are you sure? That doesn't sound right to me...

Isabell is contributing, yes, but, if you ask me, she isn't thereby making herself less suspicious - and we can do better than merely voting for the quietest person among us; everyone has spoken, so suspicion can play a role in our decisions.

In fact,
++Isabellkya"

the guy who be short · 06-29-2007, 08:21 AM

Guy poked Rikae - it was only fair, she kept poking everybody else with that stick of hers. "Yes," he said, "it is right, if every one of us has an equal chance of being a wolf, and we want to maximize wolf-killings, it makes more sense to lynch more people.

However," he continued, "I agree with what you have said concerning the Lhunatic. It is never conducive to ponder the gifteds aloud, and you are right to say she should know better. This gives me reason to worry about her. I must say, Rikae, that your clear manner makes me think you innocent, despite your staff-related violence issues...

However, I am less sure of your suspicion of Izzy. Her confusion about Beleg and Turin may be due to her being a foreigner who does not well know their nature. What does worry me about her is her reticence in suspecting anybody - thus far she has only displayed mild suspicion of Nogrod.

It is indeed vexing that xyzzy has said only one thing, and very little therein. I do not understand his suspicion of Mith and his suspicion of me seems a knee-jerk reaction. I think, once again, he will be most likely to get my vote toDay."

Rikae nodded and poked the sleeping body of xyzzy with her stick. It mumbled a little, but didn't wake up, so she sighed and gave up.

Rikae · 06-29-2007, 09:01 AM

Rikae shook her head at Guy's reply.
"Everyone also has an equal chance of being innocent, though. A random lynch has a 9/11 chance of killing an innocent.
By your ...innovative... formula, two random deaths have a 18/11 chance of killing an innocent; therefore either your math is wrong, or your intentions are."
With that, Rikae stuck her tongue out at Guy.

the guy who be short · 06-29-2007, 09:31 AM

"Hmm. You've got me there, Rikae. Let me have a think...

If we kill two people, that chance that both are wolves is (2/11)^2 = 4/121 = 3.3%

The chance that one is a wolf and the other is not is 2(2/11x9/11) = 36/121 = 29.8%

The chance of no wolves is (9/11)^2 = 81/121 = 66.9%

Now, if we only killed one person, the chance of a wolf is 2/11 = 18%, which is far lower than the 33.1% we'd expect if we lynched two people.

The maths may have been slightly off (3.2% overestimation in fact) but the results are still the same.

All of this, as I've said, now being a moot point." Guy stuck his tongue out at Rikae, but she swiftly hit him with her stick and denounced his frivolity.

His brain steaming from the calculation, and his leg from the staff, Guy stepped outside for a drink from the pool before returning quickly..

Rikae · 06-29-2007, 09:53 AM

"You overestimated the results to promote your plan, AND smuggled in an anachronistic calculator! Shame on you.

With your "4/11", it looked as though you were simply multiplying your wolf-odds heedlessly.

In any event, it's a senseless plan. If we mass-lynched 9 random people, the chance of winning the game is 66.9%. Shall we do it? Or would you rather wait until we have some more evidence to base our decisions on, and improve our odds?"

the guy who be short · 06-29-2007, 10:07 AM

"Come now!" Guy replied. "An accidental overestimation of 3.3% (I thought it was 4/11 = 36.4% when in reality it was 33.1%) is hardly going to change anybody's mind; it's still obvious that not wasting a lynch is beneficial to the community. And what plan? There is no plan to do this because nobody has been quiet enough to be cursed... You seem intent on focussing discussion on this irrelevant point.

What is this calculator you speak of, eh? Never heard of such a thing...

And the difference is, we can't mass lynch 9 people. We can only lynch one person per Day (for some reason). To forfeit this lynching in the name of preserving numbers would be foolish."

the guy who be short · 06-29-2007, 10:41 AM

"Alas, I must vote now, for I feel a great weariness taking me," Guy yawned. "I shall not now awake until Tomorrow.

++XYZZY

Because the quiet are deadly, and he has given us very little to work with regarding his innocence or guilt.

As it stands, I shall tell you my thoughts on each member of our village:

Nogrod feels more innocent than guilty, but you can never tell with him. I also feel quite sure that Mac is innocent because of his manner of thinking.

Below them comes Izzy, whose comments about working together and general demeanor make me feel she is innocent. Speak more, dear, or you'll be lynched by the likes of Rikae.

Athough I thought Rikae quite innocent until now, I have doubts. Her insistence to distract us from coming to conclusions by continuing a discussion about a moot point - lynching the silent - makes me wary. I also dislike her jumping on Izzy - her reasoning is based on supposed hints in Izzy's words, her not knowing who Beleg and Turin are. This all seems fabricated to me, an attempt to target an easy lynch. I'll be watching Rikae.

Likewise, I do not trust Lhuna for her debating the gifteds.

Gil-Galad and Mith I cannot decide on, for they too have been very quiet, though with more excuse than xyzzy.

I am also undecided on Brinn. She seems to me to be a bit too defensive. I accused her - obviously in jest - of wolvery based on her looks. She has since been dedicated to lynching me.

That is that. Good night, dear people."

Yawning, Guy retired to bed.

Macalaure · 06-29-2007, 08:24 AM

"I'm afraid I have to remain on a tangent, but Nogrod's answer to me is not satisfactory and I don't have anything better to add to our cause.

Nogrod said:

Thinking that the wolves were really intelligent and managed to pick a good kill for them and Beleg just happened by chance to be on their way is totally unbelievable the odds being 1:11.

I did not say that. Maybe the wolves did not take the obvious choice and our dear Strongbow expected that and protected the person which looked like the most obvious kill for somebody who didn't want to make an obvious kill? This is far from impossible.
But even if you are right and the wolves picked a bad and obvious kill, then who do you think was this unlucky/lucky person? I mean, there is more than one who was considered innocent by the majority (what you said was the wolves' reasoning). I don't see only one obvious choice, which, obviously, makes the choice rather unobvious.
Not only do you not have the premises to prove your theory, your theory itself is also not very applicable, I'm afraid.
And saying that most probably one "non-dilettant" outlaw is among the wolves additionally undermines it, unless it is Mith, of course.

Right now, I am somewhat suspicious of Nogrod. His vote was strange, I have never experienced any of his fore-fathers to be so defensive about his actions and he seems to enjoy talking about minor subjects very much (f.ex. the theory about whether to lynch silent players or not), which is suspicious even though it is in character for him. I could also easily imagine that the reason he tries to convince us that the wolves are sleepy and inexperienced outlaws is because he himself has just been outsmarted by bow-dropping Beleg. But this doesn't fit into one picture with his pointing out that Turin might be a sleepy one, too. Therefore I remain only "somewhat" suspicious.*

Guy, Lhuna, Brinn and Rikae all seem decently innocentish to me at the moment, which is slightly disturbing. Of Mith I cannot say anything and Gil is away. I can understand Rikae's suspicion of Isabellkya, but I'm not sure whether I share it.

As I already said, I still feel very Day-One-ish today..."

*in another time, ages from now, this little paragraph would have been infested with little yellow faces.

(x-ed with the Guy)

06-29-2007, 09:01 AM	#3
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Rikae shook her head at Guy's reply. "Everyone also has an equal chance of being innocent, though. A random lynch has a 9/11 chance of killing an innocent. By your ...innovative... formula, two random deaths have a 18/11 chance of killing an innocent; therefore either your math is wrong, or your intentions are." With that, Rikae stuck her tongue out at Guy. Last edited by Rikae; 06-29-2007 at 09:09 AM. Reason: stupid typo

06-29-2007, 07:41 AM	#1
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	"Guy said: My way, we vote for somebody with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf, and then somebody else dies automatically with a 2/11 chance of being a wolf. We have a 4/11 chance of lynching a wolf there. Are you sure? That doesn't sound right to me... Isabell is contributing, yes, but, if you ask me, she isn't thereby making herself less suspicious - and we can do better than merely voting for the quietest person among us; everyone has spoken, so suspicion can play a role in our decisions. In fact, ++Isabellkya"

06-29-2007, 08:21 AM	#2
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Guy poked Rikae - it was only fair, she kept poking everybody else with that stick of hers. "Yes," he said, "it is right, if every one of us has an equal chance of being a wolf, and we want to maximize wolf-killings, it makes more sense to lynch more people. However," he continued, "I agree with what you have said concerning the Lhunatic. It is never conducive to ponder the gifteds aloud, and you are right to say she should know better. This gives me reason to worry about her. I must say, Rikae, that your clear manner makes me think you innocent, despite your staff-related violence issues... However, I am less sure of your suspicion of Izzy. Her confusion about Beleg and Turin may be due to her being a foreigner who does not well know their nature. What does worry me about her is her reticence in suspecting anybody - thus far she has only displayed mild suspicion of Nogrod. It is indeed vexing that xyzzy has said only one thing, and very little therein. I do not understand his suspicion of Mith and his suspicion of me seems a knee-jerk reaction. I think, once again, he will be most likely to get my vote toDay." Rikae nodded and poked the sleeping body of xyzzy with her stick. It mumbled a little, but didn't wake up, so she sighed and gave up.

06-29-2007, 09:31 AM	#4
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	"Hmm. You've got me there, Rikae. Let me have a think... If we kill two people, that chance that both are wolves is (2/11)^2 = 4/121 = 3.3% The chance that one is a wolf and the other is not is 2(2/11x9/11) = 36/121 = 29.8% The chance of no wolves is (9/11)^2 = 81/121 = 66.9% Now, if we only killed one person, the chance of a wolf is 2/11 = 18%, which is far lower than the 33.1% we'd expect if we lynched two people. The maths may have been slightly off (3.2% overestimation in fact) but the results are still the same. All of this, as I've said, now being a moot point." Guy stuck his tongue out at Rikae, but she swiftly hit him with her stick and denounced his frivolity. His brain steaming from the calculation, and his leg from the staff, Guy stepped outside for a drink from the pool before returning quickly..

06-29-2007, 09:53 AM	#5
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	"You overestimated the results to promote your plan, AND smuggled in an anachronistic calculator! Shame on you. With your "4/11", it looked as though you were simply multiplying your wolf-odds heedlessly. In any event, it's a senseless plan. If we mass-lynched 9 random people, the chance of winning the game is 66.9%. Shall we do it? Or would you rather wait until we have some more evidence to base our decisions on, and improve our odds?"

06-29-2007, 10:07 AM	#6
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	"Come now!" Guy replied. "An accidental overestimation of 3.3% (I thought it was 4/11 = 36.4% when in reality it was 33.1%) is hardly going to change anybody's mind; it's still obvious that not wasting a lynch is beneficial to the community. And what plan? There is no plan to do this because nobody has been quiet enough to be cursed... You seem intent on focussing discussion on this irrelevant point. What is this calculator you speak of, eh? Never heard of such a thing... And the difference is, we can't mass lynch 9 people. We can only lynch one person per Day (for some reason). To forfeit this lynching in the name of preserving numbers would be foolish."

06-29-2007, 10:41 AM	#7
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	"Alas, I must vote now, for I feel a great weariness taking me," Guy yawned. "I shall not now awake until Tomorrow. ++XYZZY Because the quiet are deadly, and he has given us very little to work with regarding his innocence or guilt. As it stands, I shall tell you my thoughts on each member of our village: Nogrod feels more innocent than guilty, but you can never tell with him. I also feel quite sure that Mac is innocent because of his manner of thinking. Below them comes Izzy, whose comments about working together and general demeanor make me feel she is innocent. Speak more, dear, or you'll be lynched by the likes of Rikae. Athough I thought Rikae quite innocent until now, I have doubts. Her insistence to distract us from coming to conclusions by continuing a discussion about a moot point - lynching the silent - makes me wary. I also dislike her jumping on Izzy - her reasoning is based on supposed hints in Izzy's words, her not knowing who Beleg and Turin are. This all seems fabricated to me, an attempt to target an easy lynch. I'll be watching Rikae. Likewise, I do not trust Lhuna for her debating the gifteds. Gil-Galad and Mith I cannot decide on, for they too have been very quiet, though with more excuse than xyzzy. I am also undecided on Brinn. She seems to me to be a bit too defensive. I accused her - obviously in jest - of wolvery based on her looks. She has since been dedicated to lynching me. That is that. Good night, dear people." Yawning, Guy retired to bed.

06-29-2007, 08:24 AM	#8
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	"I'm afraid I have to remain on a tangent, but Nogrod's answer to me is not satisfactory and I don't have anything better to add to our cause. Nogrod said: Thinking that the wolves were really intelligent and managed to pick a good kill for them and Beleg just happened by chance to be on their way is totally unbelievable the odds being 1:11. I did not say that. Maybe the wolves did not take the obvious choice and our dear Strongbow expected that and protected the person which looked like the most obvious kill for somebody who didn't want to make an obvious kill? This is far from impossible. But even if you are right and the wolves picked a bad and obvious kill, then who do you think was this unlucky/lucky person? I mean, there is more than one who was considered innocent by the majority (what you said was the wolves' reasoning). I don't see only one obvious choice, which, obviously, makes the choice rather unobvious. Not only do you not have the premises to prove your theory, your theory itself is also not very applicable, I'm afraid. And saying that most probably one "non-dilettant" outlaw is among the wolves additionally undermines it, unless it is Mith, of course. Right now, I am somewhat suspicious of Nogrod. His vote was strange, I have never experienced any of his fore-fathers to be so defensive about his actions and he seems to enjoy talking about minor subjects very much (f.ex. the theory about whether to lynch silent players or not), which is suspicious even though it is in character for him. I could also easily imagine that the reason he tries to convince us that the wolves are sleepy and inexperienced outlaws is because he himself has just been outsmarted by bow-dropping Beleg. But this doesn't fit into one picture with his pointing out that Turin might be a sleepy one, too. Therefore I remain only "somewhat" suspicious.* Guy, Lhuna, Brinn and Rikae all seem decently innocentish to me at the moment, which is slightly disturbing. Of Mith I cannot say anything and Gil is away. I can understand Rikae's suspicion of Isabellkya, but I'm not sure whether I share it. As I already said, I still feel very Day-One-ish today..." *in another time, ages from now, this little paragraph would have been infested with little yellow faces. (x-ed with the Guy)