WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

xyzzy · 06-29-2007, 12:56 PM

Now it would seem none of you know anything of basic statistics!

One of the most remarkable truths about our situation is that we have a much greater chance of winning each day if at the start of the day there are an even number of us alive. Plus, since the moment the wolves overtake us in numbers we've lost, the longer it takes us to reach that point, the better off we are.

I'm going to support not lynching anyone.

Lhunardawen · 06-29-2007, 01:09 PM

With a big yawn, Lhuna walked over to her corner, wrapped herself in a blanket, and shut her eyes. She was immediately poked by someone.

"What? Oh, I forgot:

++NOGROD

Now let me sleep in peace."

Macalaure · 06-29-2007, 01:19 PM

"The day is nearing its end and soon the time to cast a vote has come.

His last speech has me feeling better about Nogrod, for the moment. I will therefore not vote for him.

Neither will I vote for Lhuna, who I think is innocent.

I'm not that sure yet of the innocence of Rikae, Brinn and the Guy, but I'm not suspicious of one of these either.

Gil was not able to speak today, otherwise Mîm would have been left unguarded, and Mith is still catching up.

This only leaves Isabellkya and Xyzzy, by the rule "if you're not suspicious of anyone, vote the one you're least unsuspicious of". I will now ponder in silence which of the two I will vote."

Mithalwen · 06-29-2007, 01:26 PM

"If I were going to vote on pique I would vote Isabellkya. I did not labour hard all day yesterday for people to get food faddy. " Mithalwen said, "it is possible that she is vegetarian not because she loves animals but because she hates plants, and as the Vala Yavanna said, they need protection more..."

Macalaure · 06-29-2007, 01:40 PM

"Isabellkya's suspicion of our valiant Helm and Bow is probably honest confusion, albeit eye-brow-raising. She was also suspicious of Nogrod for fairer reasons.

Xyzzy was suspicious of Guy and Mith, for retaliatory or non-existant reasons.

Neither of the two has voted so far and Xyzzy even says he would like us to lynch nobody, which is ridiculous.

I'm strongly leaning towards lynching Xyzzy now. What do the others think?"

xyzzy · 06-29-2007, 01:45 PM

"Macalaure, what is so ridiculous about suggesting we use our brains rather than our fists? Of course we eventually need to kill a wolf, but my point is, we have a much better chance of doing that if we lynch no one today."

Mithalwen · 06-29-2007, 01:50 PM

"But" said Mithalwen, "you said Xyzzy, that our situation was better if we had an even number at the start of the day. There are 10 of us now... we cannot hope that the wolves will be foiled again - well we can hope but I fear such fortune is less likely .. so to retain the even number tomorrow morning we must lynch tonight "..... shesat back struggling with maths but knowing that the time for a decision was nigh. She had suspected Guy forhis early vot for Xyzzy yesterday but now she wondered if he was right...

Nogrod · 06-29-2007, 01:43 PM

"I'd give Gil the benefit of doubt as he's not here right now.

With the two others I do have a problem. Xyzzy plays less and his style of play annoys me a lot more - and were he a wolf his possible victory would be bad indeed but he looks somewhat sincerish. Isabell contributes a little more but with her I'm much more insecure with.

I'm not sure if I would vote for tgwbs again. That is a possibility. But he might just be Androg whose special mission is to get rid of Beleg - whom he mistook me earlier toDay and then backed off when he realised yhay no bandwaggong was starting. Then he would be counted as an innocent and thence we probably shouldn't kill him. Maybe Shasta wasn't a cobbler but a goodie who wished to kill Turín? That kind of roles could be possible - and looking at things around not totally unbelievable."

Rikae · 06-29-2007, 01:47 PM

Rikae, hearing Xyzzy's remark about statistics, shot a cold glance at him.
"I certainly hope you are joking, my boy. Though it has been nearly a decade since I've studied that particular topic, I don't think I've forgotten everything; and I also happen to know that that short fellow over there has studied it quite recently, and the gentleman in the leather cloak knows more about mathematics than all of us put together.
I don't know what exactly you're trying to accomplish with that strange statement you just made, but it can't be good.
Not lynch anyone? I suppose the wolves will also be kind enough not to kill anyone by night, eh?
Even if you do jest, you have shown yourself to be flippant and unhelpful; you disrespect your elders and your name is impossible to pronounce.
I'm afraid you'll have to go, sonny.
--Isabellkya
++Xyzzy"

Nogrod · 06-29-2007, 01:52 PM

"I must say this Xyzzy speaks most strangely... is it because he knows he's one of the top candidates to be lynched and thence wishes to make this last minute appeal when he has no better candidatew to bring forwards as a contender?"

Macalaure · 06-29-2007, 01:54 PM

"++xyzzy" said Macalaure, "for reasons I and others have previously stated."

Nogrod · 06-29-2007, 01:25 PM

"I'm still all in for lynching those who seem to offer us little or no help as I don't have a better case against anyone more vocal. But of those people I would say just this if I'm not here toMorrow morning. Be careful of those who look good and nice. They're most often the fanged ones.

So Xyzzy, Isabell or Gil? I do indeed believe that this is not only a vote against non-contributors but also a wolf-hunt. We should just nail the right one.

I'm going to delve in my memories of their participation and will come back soon enough with my thoughts on them.

Brinniel · 06-29-2007, 01:34 PM

Brinn folded his arms, thinking carefully.

"Lynch no one? Well xyzzy, that is certainly an interesting strategy. But I would have to disagree. Even if we don't lynch anyone, the wolves will still take an innocent down each Night and it won't be long before they overcome us. The only way we can take down a wolf is by lynching them, and while there's always a risk that we may lynch an innocent, we must take our chances.

"With that said, xyzzy's weird new strategy he has come up with makes me think he might be a little more on the innocentish side. After all, if the wolves can get innocents lynched and kill them at Night, the faster they will win. Then again, perhaps xyzzy is a wolf and is afraid that either he or his comrade will be lynched toDay...

"Of everyone here, I find Rikae and Izzy to be likely Innocents, and tgwbs and Nogrod to be most suspicious. Of everyone else, I'm still not sure about.

"The sun sets in a half an hour. And I will be voting for either tgwbs or Nogrod."

EDIT: X-ed from Mac down

Mithalwen · 06-29-2007, 01:38 PM

"I would hold off on Nogrod, Brinn, TGWBS has set off my alarm bells ...." Mithalwen said casting in her memory .." yes his early attack on Xyzzy - seemed remarkable but why" . The tall woman in grey tried hard ot recall why this had stuck in her memory.

Brinniel · 06-29-2007, 01:50 PM

"Well Mithalwen, I am leaning more towards voting tgwbs. I've suspected him from the beginning with his vote for xyzzy. Then toDay he votes him again, which I think is a mistake. He bandwagons against Nogrod, and then suddenly changes his mind and says, 'I find Nogrod quite innocent now.' Something about his tone just doesn't seem right, plus his use of statistics only seemed to cause distraction.

"In comparison, Nogrod has at least seemed more reasonable in some points, and if he is actually innocent, he would be a great loss.

"The only thing I am worried about is that my vote may be a waste. After all, it seems that most are interested in voting someone else."

EDIT: X-ed with multiple posts

06-29-2007, 01:19 PM	#3
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	"The day is nearing its end and soon the time to cast a vote has come. His last speech has me feeling better about Nogrod, for the moment. I will therefore not vote for him. Neither will I vote for Lhuna, who I think is innocent. I'm not that sure yet of the innocence of Rikae, Brinn and the Guy, but I'm not suspicious of one of these either. Gil was not able to speak today, otherwise Mîm would have been left unguarded, and Mith is still catching up. This only leaves Isabellkya and Xyzzy, by the rule "if you're not suspicious of anyone, vote the one you're least unsuspicious of". I will now ponder in silence which of the two I will vote." Last edited by Macalaure; 06-29-2007 at 01:28 PM.

06-29-2007, 01:47 PM	#9
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Rikae, hearing Xyzzy's remark about statistics, shot a cold glance at him. "I certainly hope you are joking, my boy. Though it has been nearly a decade since I've studied that particular topic, I don't think I've forgotten everything; and I also happen to know that that short fellow over there has studied it quite recently, and the gentleman in the leather cloak knows more about mathematics than all of us put together. I don't know what exactly you're trying to accomplish with that strange statement you just made, but it can't be good. Not lynch anyone? I suppose the wolves will also be kind enough not to kill anyone by night, eh? Even if you do jest, you have shown yourself to be flippant and unhelpful; you disrespect your elders and your name is impossible to pronounce. I'm afraid you'll have to go, sonny. --Isabellkya ++Xyzzy" Last edited by Rikae; 06-29-2007 at 01:53 PM. Reason: clarity...what post I'm referring to

06-29-2007, 12:56 PM	#1
xyzzy Haunting Spirit Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Ozark, MO Posts: 53	Now it would seem none of you know anything of basic statistics! One of the most remarkable truths about our situation is that we have a much greater chance of winning each day if at the start of the day there are an even number of us alive. Plus, since the moment the wolves overtake us in numbers we've lost, the longer it takes us to reach that point, the better off we are. I'm going to support not lynching anyone.

06-29-2007, 01:09 PM	#2
Lhunardawen Hauntress of the Havens Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: IN it, but not OF it Posts: 2,538	With a big yawn, Lhuna walked over to her corner, wrapped herself in a blanket, and shut her eyes. She was immediately poked by someone. "What? Oh, I forgot: ++NOGROD Now let me sleep in peace."

06-29-2007, 01:26 PM	#4
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,460	"If I were going to vote on pique I would vote Isabellkya. I did not labour hard all day yesterday for people to get food faddy. " Mithalwen said, "it is possible that she is vegetarian not because she loves animals but because she hates plants, and as the Vala Yavanna said, they need protection more..."

06-29-2007, 01:40 PM	#5
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	"Isabellkya's suspicion of our valiant Helm and Bow is probably honest confusion, albeit eye-brow-raising. She was also suspicious of Nogrod for fairer reasons. Xyzzy was suspicious of Guy and Mith, for retaliatory or non-existant reasons. Neither of the two has voted so far and Xyzzy even says he would like us to lynch nobody, which is ridiculous. I'm strongly leaning towards lynching Xyzzy now. What do the others think?"

06-29-2007, 01:45 PM	#6
xyzzy Haunting Spirit Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Ozark, MO Posts: 53	"Macalaure, what is so ridiculous about suggesting we use our brains rather than our fists? Of course we eventually need to kill a wolf, but my point is, we have a much better chance of doing that if we lynch no one today."

06-29-2007, 01:50 PM	#7
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,460	"But" said Mithalwen, "you said Xyzzy, that our situation was better if we had an even number at the start of the day. There are 10 of us now... we cannot hope that the wolves will be foiled again - well we can hope but I fear such fortune is less likely .. so to retain the even number tomorrow morning we must lynch tonight "..... shesat back struggling with maths but knowing that the time for a decision was nigh. She had suspected Guy forhis early vot for Xyzzy yesterday but now she wondered if he was right...

06-29-2007, 01:43 PM	#8
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	"I'd give Gil the benefit of doubt as he's not here right now. With the two others I do have a problem. Xyzzy plays less and his style of play annoys me a lot more - and were he a wolf his possible victory would be bad indeed but he looks somewhat sincerish. Isabell contributes a little more but with her I'm much more insecure with. I'm not sure if I would vote for tgwbs again. That is a possibility. But he might just be Androg whose special mission is to get rid of Beleg - whom he mistook me earlier toDay and then backed off when he realised yhay no bandwaggong was starting. Then he would be counted as an innocent and thence we probably shouldn't kill him. Maybe Shasta wasn't a cobbler but a goodie who wished to kill Turín? That kind of roles could be possible - and looking at things around not totally unbelievable."

06-29-2007, 01:52 PM	#10
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	"I must say this Xyzzy speaks most strangely... is it because he knows he's one of the top candidates to be lynched and thence wishes to make this last minute appeal when he has no better candidatew to bring forwards as a contender?"

06-29-2007, 01:54 PM	#11
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	"++xyzzy" said Macalaure, "for reasons I and others have previously stated."

06-29-2007, 01:25 PM	#12
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	"I'm still all in for lynching those who seem to offer us little or no help as I don't have a better case against anyone more vocal. But of those people I would say just this if I'm not here toMorrow morning. Be careful of those who look good and nice. They're most often the fanged ones. So Xyzzy, Isabell or Gil? I do indeed believe that this is not only a vote against non-contributors but also a wolf-hunt. We should just nail the right one. I'm going to delve in my memories of their participation and will come back soon enough with my thoughts on them.

06-29-2007, 01:34 PM	#13
Brinniel Reflection of Darkness Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull. Posts: 2,983	Brinn folded his arms, thinking carefully. "Lynch no one? Well xyzzy, that is certainly an interesting strategy. But I would have to disagree. Even if we don't lynch anyone, the wolves will still take an innocent down each Night and it won't be long before they overcome us. The only way we can take down a wolf is by lynching them, and while there's always a risk that we may lynch an innocent, we must take our chances. "With that said, xyzzy's weird new strategy he has come up with makes me think he might be a little more on the innocentish side. After all, if the wolves can get innocents lynched and kill them at Night, the faster they will win. Then again, perhaps xyzzy is a wolf and is afraid that either he or his comrade will be lynched toDay... "Of everyone here, I find Rikae and Izzy to be likely Innocents, and tgwbs and Nogrod to be most suspicious. Of everyone else, I'm still not sure about. "The sun sets in a half an hour. And I will be voting for either tgwbs or Nogrod." EDIT: X-ed from Mac down

06-29-2007, 01:38 PM	#14
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,460	"I would hold off on Nogrod, Brinn, TGWBS has set off my alarm bells ...." Mithalwen said casting in her memory .." yes his early attack on Xyzzy - seemed remarkable but why" . The tall woman in grey tried hard ot recall why this had stuck in her memory.