Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXXVI Game Thread

[the phantom]

SPM- 2
Holby- 1

Where is everyone else? Though I can't blame WWs for not showing up. Given their day one gift of a triple lynch, all they have to do is shut up and odds are we won't be able to lynch correctly three times in a row, as it would require every innocent to vote correctly, every single time, for the exact same WW.

Originally Posted by Mith

Hmm If I had to vote now it would be Sauce on balance of probabilities but I don't so I will wait.

Why wait, dearie?

Because you think the "true Seer" may still emerge?

Or because you are a WW and you want to make it clear that you are against your pal SPM and will vote for him, but you are holding out just in case one of us innocents chooses to side with him leaving you free to switch over and vote Holby to win the game?

Sorry, but I'm suspicious of anyone displaying a Wolf as her avatar.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytwolf

I didn't say that, Phantom did.

Quite so. I was in a bit of a hurry and had your Wolfishness rather on my mind. Still, at least you admit to being a Holbytwolf.

Originally Posted by the phantom

But look at the situation- "or I look to be in danger of being lynched". You ARE in danger, SPM! If you are truly innocent and Holby is a WW, then you are obviously the target of choice for all the WWs, meaning that only ONE ORDO has to vote for you to deliver the win to the WWs. And so obviously, if you are indeed innocent, the Seer needs to step up.

No. I am only in danger of being lynched as and when I receive three votes. One more than that and it's game over. My concern was that Holby's claim would pressure the real Seer into revealing straight away, which is just what the Wolves want if they don't manage to claim me and the game toDay. Perhaps that is why you are so keen for the Seer to come forward before he/she needs to.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Why wait, dearie?

If innocent, I presume that it's because she would prefer to consider her vote carefully, rather than handing the game over to the Wolves on a plate right now. If a Wolf, it is probably because she wants to put the final nail in my coffin. Or perhaps that's why you are holding your vote, phantom.

I fully expected at least one of the other Wolves to pile in with a vote for me to put pressure on the innocent villagers to vote for me and on the real Seer to reveal. For that reason, I am pretty sure that CoD is one of Holby's fellow Wolves, particularly given that he claims also to mistrust her claim, most likely to make himself look better in the event that she is lynched toDay and her claim shown to be a sham.

As to the third Wolf, I don't really have much of an idea at the moment. I don't like the way that Mithalwen seemingly accepted Holby's claim without question. But then the phantom has done much the same thing, and also looks to have been urging the real Seer to reveal. I was suspicious of Kath for her early attempt to cast suspicion on Gil and for her very safe vote on Day 1, but she has said nothing since. Gil I am almost certain is innocent, for his crazy vote for Boro yesterDay. A Wolf would surely have known who the co-Mods are.

I'm off to read things through once again, particularly Holby's posts, and to look at yesterDay's votes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Only three posts from Holby before toDay.

Her first post is quite a bold one for a Wolf. It seemed mere banter at the time, but now it makes for interesting reading.

Originally Posted by Wolfylass

I find suspicious at this time CaptainofDespair- anyone who delights in despair must be happy that we are in danger. Also, Legate of Amon Lanc -he has not embraced our village as he is always pointing out where he came from, no civil loyalty. Then there's Kath, I find anyone suspicious that won't give their full name. And of course, The Saucepan Man, for giving the whole village food poisoning!

Legate is dead and I am innocent. I would expect at least one of the others named to be one of her fellow Wolves, which backs up my strong feeling about CoD. It is possible, however, that she named two innocents and two fellow Wolves, which would point to CoD and Kath.

In her next post, she casts suspicion on both Menel, who she voted for, and Gil. She was successful in getting an innocent Menel lynched. I wonder whether she was also avoiding putting all her chickens in one basket by stirring suspicion of an innocent Gil.

The other post was her vote for Menel.

As I suspected, not a lot to go on, but it points towards CoD, and possibly Kath.

Day 2 vote analysis coming up.

[The Saucepan Man]

Mithalwen: Holby (Holby 1)
Gil: Boromir88! (Holby 1)
CaptainofDespair: Shasta (Holby 1, Shasta 1)
Shasta: Kath (Holby 1, Shasta 1, Kath 1)
Lal: phantom (Holby 1, Shasta 1, Kath 1, phantom 1)
Phantom: Lal (Holby 1, Shasta 1, Kath 1, phantom 1, Lal 1)
SpM: Shasta (Holby 1, Shasta 2, Kath 1, phantom 1, Lal 1)

Did not vote: Kath, Holby

OK, this immediately raises my suspicions of Mithalwen. It was unlikely that, with Holby being away on Day 2, she was going to attract many votes. A perfect time to get in a safe Wolf on Wolf vote.

Gil’s vote for Boro was ridiculous, but, as I have said, most likely speaks to his innocence.

The other votes don’t really tell us much as there was no bandwaggoning and none of them were particularly safe votes. I didn’t like the way that the phantom was so cagey about his vote at the end of the Day though. Things could have gone dreadfully wrong again, and he didn’t seem particularly concerned about it. Perhaps his ‘joking’ about a causing quadruple lynch was not so flippant after all.

So, my current thinking is as follows:

Wolves
Holby
CaptainofDespair

Possible Wolves
Kath
Mithalwen
The phantom

Most likely innocent
Gil-Galad

Not a great deal of help as far as the third Wolf is concerned, I am afraid. Still, it’s all academic if even one innocent falls for Holby’s claim. I suspect anyway that the next vote for me will reveal our third Wolf.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But look at the situation- "or I look to be in danger of being lynched". You ARE in danger, SPM! If you are truly innocent and Holby is a WW, then you are obviously the target of choice for all the WWs, meaning that only ONE ORDO has to vote for you to deliver the win to the WWs. And so obviously, if you are indeed innocent, the Seer needs to step up.

Originally Posted by SPM

No. I am only in danger of being lynched as and when I receive three votes.

Umm... no.

You are in danger of being lynched when you receive ONE SINGLE non-wolf vote.

First, let's assume you are innocent and Holby is a WW. Now, if CoD is not a WW, then the game is over already, because the other two Wolves can just tack their votes onto you. Right?

Okay. So let's assume that CoD is a WW as well. That leaves one Wolf.

Mith and I have both said we are leaning towards voting for you. We can't both be Wolves, correct? Therefore, it is a fact that an innocent villager is leaning towards voting for you right now.

It is also a fact that one single vote cast incorrectly will kill the village.

And so, I simply must insist that if Holby is not the real Seer, the true Seer must come forward. If he/she doesn't then it is almost certain that the game is over.

Meaning.... unless someone steps forward and claims to be the true Seer, I am going to have to stick with Holby on this.

(I've gotta hand it to you though, Sauce, you're spinning this very well. I feel like Theoden at Isengard, trying to cast off the power of Saruman's persuasive words.)

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by SPM

I didn’t like the way that the phantom was so cagey about his vote at the end of the Day though. Things could have gone dreadfully wrong again, and he didn’t seem particularly concerned about it. Perhaps his ‘joking’ about a causing quadruple lynch was not so flippant after all.

I just thought I'd respond to this quickly.

You are right, Sauce. I was not completely joking about the quadruple lynch. It wouldn't have irked me much if we had done it. I know this doesn't sound very sporting, but the fact is after that ridiculous triple lynch on Day 1, I figured we were screwed except by a run of absolutely amazing luck. And so my mindset was "Oh, what the heck- let's go ahead and lynch a whole mob of people. If we happen to kill two wolves in the bunch then great, but if we don't then we at least can say we were part of a record setting Two-Day Werewolf game."

Not that I thought you'd let that happen. I didn't really trust you. That's why I wanted to see what you'd do if I sat on my vote.

I sat and sat and sat and still you did not go, so finally in the last 60 seconds I went, figuring you were waiting to see which way I'd go so that you could cause a double lynch and win the game. But instead I voted for a completely different target, meaning that a double lynch would be out of the question if you cast your vote.

And if you didn't vote at all, that would have left us with an amazing-record-breaking-remembered-forever-FIVE-PERSON-LYNCH!! Which, in my opinion, would be a fabulous way to lose. Go out in style, you know.

[the phantom]

I'm off to bed.

I'll be back about 30 minutes before the deadline to look things over and then vote.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

SPM- 2
Holby- 1

Where is everyone else? Though I can't blame WWs for not showing up. Given their day one gift of a triple lynch, all they have to do is shut up and odds are we won't be able to lynch correctly three times in a row, as it would require every innocent to vote correctly, every single time, for the exact same WW.

Why wait, dearie?


Sorry, but I'm suspicious of anyone displaying a Wolf as her avatar.

No darling cos I had to catch a train and thought it might be useful to wait in case we can get two wolvsies ..

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And so, I simply must insist that if Holby is not the real Seer, the true Seer must come forward. If he/she doesn't then it is almost certain that the game is over.

This is simply not the case. Assuming CoD is a Wolf, which I believe to be the case, then the Seer need not reveal if the remaining innocents vote for Holby. That way, we get to live another Day and, if we are lucky, we get another Seer dream.

There is little more that I can say here, so I place myself in your hands. Choose wisely, or the game will be over.

That said, I am becoming increasingly concerned that neither Gil nor Kath will be turning up toDay. If that's the case, and both are innocent, then the game is effectively over already.

[Holbytlass]

WOW! Saucepanman, I'm impressed, as always, with your trying to squirm out of you being a wolf. Which actually may help others see that I am the real seer.
I know there are those that don't know such as CoD, I don't know him, but those that know me know that I'm not good with words and therefore would not stand a chance against you. If I were faking I would have picked an easier target or at least one that I fely I might stand a chance against.

I am the real seer-I have revealed myself because we have a now known wolf.

[Mithalwen]

++ The Saucepan Man

Reasons (as if you need them to follow)

[the phantom]

Alive

CaptainofDespair
Gil-Galad
Holbytlass
Kath
Mithalwen
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

All right. We have votes from CoD, Holby, Mith, and SPM.

Kath and Gil don't seem to be here, which makes me the only vote left. And with the voting count at 3-1... that means the voting is over already. It doesn't matter which way I go.

[the phantom]

Kath and Gil's absence is worrying. On one hand, surely WWs would show up, right? But that would mean that Holby, Mith, and CoD are the WWs, and that there is nothing we can do about it.

On the other hand, if SPM turns out to be guilty, Kath and Gil will suddenly look very suspicious, and rightly so- and yet that would seem too easy. And naturally Mith will appear to be totally cleared since she voted for SPM when there was still a chance of saving him. But of course she could've just been betting on me voting for him as well. CoD will look very innocent...

[Mithalwen]

OK although I do believe him a wolf, the Pan Man is right in that I didn't want to vote hastily sinceI could and would return. Too often something unexpected arises and a fixed vote is not to be cast lightly (though I now hurl it with some force in Sauce's direction).

However I note that a lot of things that are now troubling him now about me and others aren't things that troubled him at the time. Bit late to be criticising my vote for Holby isn't it? I freely admitted it was a cheap shot but I had forgotten to apply my usual rule of thumb that "oddness" can be a product of giftedness as well as lycanthropy.

It is a pity that she will surely be lost to us tonight not only for her gifts but becasue the wolves will not be giving anything away by their choice. Since the kills so far have seemed "unobvious" it is reasonable to assume that others were possibly left alive as foils/ cover for the wolves. Assuming SPM's guilt, I imagine Phantom (if innocent and I ) were cover for him. There is surely a wolf among the quiet ...

I tend to think TP is innocent and I know I am so with Holby-seer two of Gil, Kath and COD must be wolves. Which is the hard part .... Kath is usually but not always more involved as a wolf but .....

[Mithalwen]

Gil and Kath have posted twice each ..... such a lot to go on.....