WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

What follows is an analysis of Nerwen's posts, along with comparing some of them to Mac's and why I think she could be a balrog.

Nerwen's posts:

#23
Nerwen starts with "Greeting, fellow miners." and such stuff in a way that reminds me of "Hello, I am one of you, I be your friend." Then she says - no, I have to quote it all:

In principle, I'm inclined to suspect the "quiet ones". After all, if I were a werebalrog I'd be lying low at this point, waiting for somebody to accuse an innocent miner so I could jump on the bandwagon.

First sentence: saying "my tactics is going to be that I suspect people who do this and this" is a very good baddie-program, because one can hide behind this. Second sentence: this is rightaway saying in the same paragraph "If I were a werebalrog, I'd be doing something else than I'm doing now", so logical conclusion - I am not a balrog. Now that's a nice cover.

Then she continues a little bit safer and says that of course silence is not incriminating yet, because not everyone could post.

Then she says Rikae maybe diverts suspicion by this, which may be very nicely using the vote Rikae made on herself to emphasise the fact that there can be sinister intentions behind Rikae's self-vote.

Other posts are not much better.

#33
In response to Mac - she speaks about Rikae (meaning she does not know her style of playing):

Well, I don't really know any of you people yet, but I agree that it doesn't make sense for the cobbler to try and get lynched at this point.

She speaks about Rikae in particular, but that's also saying "I don't know you people, and especially I don't know you, Mac, to whom I am responding". That's a way for a balrog to cover that she knows her accomplice from Night talks.

#53
Votes Rikae, but in a way of proving how honest she is:

Look, Rikae, I wasn't going to do anything until you'd had a chance to speak for yourself.

Then she makes another safe-comment:

I can't say that you or anyone else has done anything that definitely says "balrog" to me– but time is running out. In the absence of a better candidate– [votes Rikae]

Saying that you do something because you don't have better candidate gives you the chance to vote without explaining your motives, sooner or later. You just say you didn't know. So if anything, this could be a good post for a balrog.

Day 2:
#103
Explains the swiftness of her vote the Day before. Nothing much to be said about that.

# 127
That's her last post and also her vote for Day 2.

Unfortunately, we seem to have another bandwagon starting up. Since there have been three votes to lynch Macalaure already, I propose [votes Gil-Galad]

Now this is mainly what made me think she is the balrog. Because Mac seemed to gather votes far too fast, she tried to save him by starting another bandwagon. Or whatever, only that she would not vote for him, because there were many votes to come still and voting Mac would 1) be safe bandwagoning from her, 2) will heighten the danger that was upon her comrade.

And what said Mac on Nerwen?
#31
Only a short sentence sideways:

Good points about her [Rikae] by Nerwen and Legate.

Day 2:
#116
Says he trusts her (names her among the few, that being Kath, Mith and Nerwen).

#137
Does not mention Nerwen, but speaks about his situation. I mention it because it was after Nerwen voted for Gil. It was Mac 3, Gil 1 at that time.

Gil is the only co-bandwaggon so far. Even though he voted me, he's also one of the few who's suspicious of Brin, so I would only vote him if I really had to save myself.

All in all: I think Mac was very careful towards Nerwen. They mention each other in positive sense, but maintaining some sort of distance - enough distance not to be too personal towards each other.

All right. So that's it. I'm saying rightaway that I got sort of carried off when I was writing this and that I did that with a zeal. But the zeal was provoked by the finds I made and that I did when I was still absolutely calm and undecided. Simply, this post is looking at everything from the most suspecting angle. What makes me wary is the fact that I once made a mistake, similar analysis with similar zeal and it ended wrong. But now it seems quite probable to me that Nerwen could be a balrog. You must judge for yourselves. Now, I am a little tired, so I'm going to sleep. Will be back in about 8 or 10 hours.

Oh, and, this thing also makes me think better of Mith, who mentioned Nerwen as suspicious on her own account (#168). If Nerwen shows to be guilty, then I'd say Mith is leaning to innocence.