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#1 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Because a flatiron takes so much longer, duh!
![]() I'm happy to get back and see so many posts. And on the note of whether or not to lynch the quiet people, keep in mind that on the last game the last baddie was silent almost the entire game, even to the point of almost being modfired. So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post (e.g. popping in and voting in a close vote situation, appearing and making an accusation and then vanishing, etc.)
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#2 |
Twisted Taleswapper
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity
Posts: 1,706
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I agree we need to keep an eye on quiet ones, I think it just really sucks when a person who is either always quiet or just has other priorities, is a wolf. It always irks me when they get by for so long. But sometimes getting rid of at least the ones who have no excuse for their quietness is best. Day one is always a little irksome, having nothing to go on.
I do have to work all day tomorrow, so I will be voting at least 4 hours before the deadline. I will be lurking around most of the evening, reading what people have to say, before I make a decision on who to vote for.
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grand return?........ |
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#3 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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*comes in peddling cheap answers*
I have the solution. Let's lynch the first person who spoke as assuredly they are the wolf. That means Volo is dead in my eyes. Accordingly the third person is equally guilty, which means the Might is, of course, guilty. One can easily assume that Macalaure is therefore innocent. The other two that are guilty are likely Kath and Fea as they usualy are guilty. Volo does give me a guilty feeling though *glares at Volo's eyes trying to glare into his soul*
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#4 |
Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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...or maybe the first person who speaks *assuredly*...
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... |
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#5 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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#6 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Very true Nerwen. It was hard to tell whether she was a baddie or just blonde. *can't believe how lame a joke that is*
Anyway, I'm ready to lynch a werewolf. Any volunteers? ![]() By the way, my apologies if I'm not able to vote tomorrow. Presentations and assignments due and all that, so I'll try my best to sneak away and vote in between it all if possible. Just a happy little disclaimer from a tired little Hobbit.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#7 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error.
I have never understood why people seem to think of day one's lynching as a sort of "throw away", which can, at best, catch a wolf by chance. In my experience, wolves are caught as often by analysis as by seers, and analysis on subsequent days is not often significantly aided by knowing the wolves' choice of a kill. I think it is entirely possible to catch a wolf on day one through skill, rather than mere luck. A wolf usually does elicit suspicion on Day 1, but is saved by one of the typical diversions: someone who stands out becomes an easy scapegoat, even though he or she may not, on reflection, look particularly wolfish. I'm just as opposed to the tired "loud/quiet" dichotomy some trot out on Day 1's. It should be clear that such a blunt instrument basically amounts to pseudo-analysis. There are so many possible nuances of playing style, and these vary from one game to the next. Each wolf blunders differently, and there is not only a continuum between the 'loudest' and 'quietest' players, but every player who posts has the entire English language at his/her disposal, and therefore, no two posts are alike. Although it takes time and effort, I vote for carefully sifting each post, using our intuition and logic to the utmost, and actually doing some serious wolf-hunting toDay. It is not only more fun, it will give us better chances of catching a wolf now and more to go on in Day 2. That said, I should practice what I preach! So here are my thoughts: Volo's banter is right up my alley, and I'm not going to take issue with it. Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far. The Might - Newbie or no newbie, I dislike his "I don't know who to vote for, so I'll vote a quiet one" statement. As the 3rd post of the day, that's a cop-out if I ever saw one. Of course you don't know yet; but why set up an easy vote when hardly anyone has even spoken? As he IS a newbie, I'm inclined to view this as a reaction to the last game and nothing more -- for now. Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring. Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate. [rant]Although after the last game, quiet wolves may be at the forefront of everyone's minds, Naria was unlikely to have been caught early on anyway. Macalaure and Brinniel were neither particularly quiet nor particularly loud, and could have been tracked down sooner by careful reading!!![/rant] The Might's second post seems newbie-ish-ly innocent to me, and makes me feel better about him. Fea & Kuru give us banter and nothing to go on yet. Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion. Fea gets completely out of character (or in character?) and still gives us nothing to go on. Oh well... Brinniel speaks good hobbit sense, and Kuru knows more about WWing than Sandyman does of boating. Both of them go up on my innocence-scale, however, I hope to see these wise words are backed up by some solid discussion! Menel - *sigh*. He's so often unjustly lynched on Day 1, I hate to go after him now. However, he shifts the discussion back into loud/quiet territory while suggesting he intends to do otherwise, and I can't just let that slide. Slightly suspicious. Kath - I always slightly distrust the "just checking in" post (as with Sally above.) Not a big deal, though. Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing. Sally is 100% right about what constitutes wolfish quietness. However, simply continuing this debate is beginning to look nonproductive, even deliberately so. Valier basically excuses herself from not participating in further discussion (I will be lurking around) and establishes herself as a slightly threatening figure (getting rid of the ones who have no excuse.) I can't say it doesn't look at least half wolfish. Morm just jokes around - nothing there - and Kuru is funny. Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't. At this point, Valier and Nerwen seem somewhat dubious to me, but this is very preliminary -- I look forward to seeing what others have to say and hope this post gets discussion moving in a constructive direction. Even if we don't get a wolf toDay, we will certainly be closer to catching one on Day 2, the more we analyse now. EDIT: X'd with Stan. ![]() |
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#8 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Excuse me, Rikae. Where have I said that?
Last edited by Nerwen; 11-30-2007 at 01:30 AM. Reason: Putting name in bold |
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#9 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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It must be!
![]() In fact, I'm puzzled by a couple of other things you've said. Quote:
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(I notice you give all the jokers a pass, even though their posts are fairly empty of content. Why?) I agree with you, though, that Valier is sounding a little suspicious at the moment. EDIT: X'd with A Little Green. |
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#10 | ||||
Silver in My Silent Heart
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As much as you have said, I don't feel too safe with you, Rikae. The stuff you have is not special - except for the fact that you were the first to bring up such a post - anyone who bothers can write an analysis on each post and sounds reasonable, even a Wolf. And this is what a Wolf would want to write, because quite often such posts bring followers and trust. Some players don't have the nerve not to trust anybody except themselves and it's the easiest to trust a person who makes more sense than others. I hope I said this clearly. I agree with you on Valier. She was the first person who gave out a Wolf-feeling while I was reading through the thread. There's not much to go on, but somehow both of us got the feeling that she might be a Wolf. The "lurking around" sounds nasty and somehow I have a feeling that the ones to give clear times when they can't play are Wolves. Quote:
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If people are unsure of whom to lynch on Day1 and end up lynching a loud Ordo, the person most likely to be lynched on Day2 is quiet. And probably also an Ordo - like Rikae pointed out - because the quiet/loud discussion won't end on Day1 but will continue on Day2 leading to none very thought decisions. Quiet players who survive to the later Days are more safe, because there will be much more to analyse about the loud players and Day3 -> is known for analysing and not quiet/loud discussion. That is just an assumption based on how things usually go and I'm not saying that lynching a quiet person on Day1 is a solution to everything. All players aren't sure of whom to vote on Day1 and often claim their vote random. I think Day1 "random" votes should rather be directed at quiet players, because otherwise they'll be directed at the quiet players on later Days for paranoia more than clear thoughts. Quote:
![]() ![]() Legate, you make me suspect you (#33, 34) . I know you're a friendly player, but this is seems a bit too friendly, although I too would like to thank for good posts... The feeling that you're backing up others more than showing yourself is what makes me wonder. Please, would you try to say your thoughts a bit clearer. It seems that the suspicion is leaning to Valier. Maybe what she said was just badly phrased, but she's one of suspects too. #36, #37: I'd trust an Innocent Rikae's gut feelings about Mac. Which isn't saying much at this point... :/ Brinniel is a question mark for now. EDIT: Xd with Legate |
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#11 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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That was my mistake indeed as I typed my post and forgot to hit submit, not that it matters. Just a bit of clarification. And I am being horribly unproductive. Just read my posts and am surprised people are even bothering to read them. Perhaps the next day I'll be more helpful as I'll have gotten some proper sleep. I'm already late for class, so here's my take on who we should vote or not vote (in a general sense). I apologize in advance as it will indeed be generalized and probably largely unhelpful, but I'll give it a shot. I'm reluctant to vote a quiet person just based on their being quiet, as I alluded to before. I'm also hesitant to vote a loud one for the same reason. If someone who is more awake than I wants to somehow unmask a wolf using their cunning and generally snazzy brain power, I'm all for it. But until then I'm thinking that we're going to be running on an educated guess, if even that. Do what you want with my two cents (except throw it at my head lol). Gotta run! Back a couple hours before deadline to check in.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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