WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[satansaloser2005]

Because a flatiron takes so much longer, duh!


I'm happy to get back and see so many posts. And on the note of whether or not to lynch the quiet people, keep in mind that on the last game the last baddie was silent almost the entire game, even to the point of almost being modfired. So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post (e.g. popping in and voting in a close vote situation, appearing and making an accusation and then vanishing, etc.)

[Valier]

I agree we need to keep an eye on quiet ones, I think it just really sucks when a person who is either always quiet or just has other priorities, is a wolf. It always irks me when they get by for so long. But sometimes getting rid of at least the ones who have no excuse for their quietness is best. Day one is always a little irksome, having nothing to go on.

I do have to work all day tomorrow, so I will be voting at least 4 hours before the deadline. I will be lurking around most of the evening, reading what people have to say, before I make a decision on who to vote for.

[mormegil]

*comes in peddling cheap answers*

I have the solution. Let's lynch the first person who spoke as assuredly they are the wolf. That means Volo is dead in my eyes.

Accordingly the third person is equally guilty, which means the Might is, of course, guilty.

One can easily assume that Macalaure is therefore innocent.

The other two that are guilty are likely Kath and Fea as they usualy are guilty.

Volo does give me a guilty feeling though

*glares at Volo's eyes trying to glare into his soul*

[Kuruharan]

...or maybe the first person who speaks *assuredly*...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And on the note of whether or not to lynch the quiet people, keep in mind that on the last game the last baddie was silent almost the entire game, even to the point of almost being modfired. So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post (e.g. popping in and voting in a close vote situation, appearing and making an accusation and then vanishing, etc.)

This is indeed something to keep in mind. Mind you, the baddie in question really didn't do much to give herself away until the second last Day. Before that it looked more like she was genuinely confused.

[satansaloser2005]

Very true Nerwen. It was hard to tell whether she was a baddie or just blonde. *can't believe how lame a joke that is*



Anyway, I'm ready to lynch a werewolf. Any volunteers? If not I'm slightly reluctant to pick someone so quickly, seeing how no one has said anything of extreme consequence yet. Maybe Stan is a werewolf. He looks suspicious. *winks at Noggie* Meh I'll just go to bed and see what develops whilst I sleep.



By the way, my apologies if I'm not able to vote tomorrow. Presentations and assignments due and all that, so I'll try my best to sneak away and vote in between it all if possible. Just a happy little disclaimer from a tired little Hobbit.

[Rikae]

Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error.

I have never understood why people seem to think of day one's lynching as a sort of "throw away", which can, at best, catch a wolf by chance. In my experience, wolves are caught as often by analysis as by seers, and analysis on subsequent days is not often significantly aided by knowing the wolves' choice of a kill. I think it is entirely possible to catch a wolf on day one through skill, rather than mere luck. A wolf usually does elicit suspicion on Day 1, but is saved by one of the typical diversions: someone who stands out becomes an easy scapegoat, even though he or she may not, on reflection, look particularly wolfish.
I'm just as opposed to the tired "loud/quiet" dichotomy some trot out on Day 1's. It should be clear that such a blunt instrument basically amounts to pseudo-analysis. There are so many possible nuances of playing style, and these vary from one game to the next. Each wolf blunders differently, and there is not only a continuum between the 'loudest' and 'quietest' players, but every player who posts has the entire English language at his/her disposal, and therefore, no two posts are alike. Although it takes time and effort, I vote for carefully sifting each post, using our intuition and logic to the utmost, and actually doing some serious wolf-hunting toDay. It is not only more fun, it will give us better chances of catching a wolf now and more to go on in Day 2.
That said, I should practice what I preach! So here are my thoughts:

Volo's banter is right up my alley, and I'm not going to take issue with it.

Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far.

The Might - Newbie or no newbie, I dislike his "I don't know who to vote for, so I'll vote a quiet one" statement. As the 3rd post of the day, that's a cop-out if I ever saw one. Of course you don't know yet; but why set up an easy vote when hardly anyone has even spoken? As he IS a newbie, I'm inclined to view this as a reaction to the last game and nothing more -- for now.

Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring.

Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate.

[rant]Although after the last game, quiet wolves may be at the forefront of everyone's minds, Naria was unlikely to have been caught early on anyway. Macalaure and Brinniel were neither particularly quiet nor particularly loud, and could have been tracked down sooner by careful reading!!![/rant]

The Might's second post seems newbie-ish-ly innocent to me, and makes me feel better about him.

Fea & Kuru give us banter and nothing to go on yet.

Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion.

Fea gets completely out of character (or in character?) and still gives us nothing to go on. Oh well...

Brinniel speaks good hobbit sense, and Kuru knows more about WWing than Sandyman does of boating. Both of them go up on my innocence-scale, however, I hope to see these wise words are backed up by some solid discussion!

Menel - *sigh*. He's so often unjustly lynched on Day 1, I hate to go after him now. However, he shifts the discussion back into loud/quiet territory while suggesting he intends to do otherwise, and I can't just let that slide. Slightly suspicious.

Kath - I always slightly distrust the "just checking in" post (as with Sally above.) Not a big deal, though.

Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing.

Sally is 100% right about what constitutes wolfish quietness. However, simply continuing this debate is beginning to look nonproductive, even deliberately so.

Valier basically excuses herself from not participating in further discussion (I will be lurking around) and establishes herself as a slightly threatening figure (getting rid of the ones who have no excuse.) I can't say it doesn't look at least half wolfish.

Morm just jokes around - nothing there - and Kuru is funny.

Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't.

At this point, Valier and Nerwen seem somewhat dubious to me, but this is very preliminary -- I look forward to seeing what others have to say and hope this post gets discussion moving in a constructive direction. Even if we don't get a wolf toDay, we will certainly be closer to catching one on Day 2, the more we analyse now.

EDIT: X'd with Stan.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't.

Excuse me, Rikae. Where have I said that?

[Nerwen]

It must be! I was making the same point as you, Rikae, namely, that we could not have caught Naria in the first few days except by chance. That does not mean, "So let's lynch people at random until we get the right one!" I'm rather puzzled as to why you think it does.

In fact, I'm puzzled by a couple of other things you've said.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far.

Why tell us this? The rest of us can hardly take it into account.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring.

I don't know, it seems a natural enough reaction to me. The same goes for the rest of us who posted in a hurry after this "lynch the quiet ones" thing started up.

(I notice you give all the jokers a pass, even though their posts are fairly empty of content. Why?)

I agree with you, though, that Valier is sounding a little suspicious at the moment.

EDIT: X'd with A Little Green.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error...

You're forgetting that the highly analytial discussion doen't start on its own. You wouldn't have had anything to analyse if the quiet/loud discussion hadn't started before your post. I agree that the quiet/loud discussion itself rarelly leads to anything, but it does make people louder, and thence easier to analyse.

As much as you have said, I don't feel too safe with you, Rikae. The stuff you have is not special - except for the fact that you were the first to bring up such a post - anyone who bothers can write an analysis on each post and sounds reasonable, even a Wolf. And this is what a Wolf would want to write, because quite often such posts bring followers and trust. Some players don't have the nerve not to trust anybody except themselves and it's the easiest to trust a person who makes more sense than others. I hope I said this clearly.

I agree with you on Valier. She was the first person who gave out a Wolf-feeling while I was reading through the thread. There's not much to go on, but somehow both of us got the feeling that she might be a Wolf. The "lurking around" sounds nasty and somehow I have a feeling that the ones to give clear times when they can't play are Wolves.

Originally Posted by MeVolo

It might be a bit nasty to say, but usually if a quiet person isn't lynched on Day1, Day2 will be more chaotic and in the end the poor quiet fellow will be lynched then just to be on the sure side as on Day3 we discuss the louder ones more. That is if the person lynched on Day1 isn't Wolf. (Assumptions, sadly.)

Originally Posted by Rikae

Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion.

Here's what I was trying to say:
If people are unsure of whom to lynch on Day1 and end up lynching a loud Ordo, the person most likely to be lynched on Day2 is quiet. And probably also an Ordo - like Rikae pointed out - because the quiet/loud discussion won't end on Day1 but will continue on Day2 leading to none very thought decisions. Quiet players who survive to the later Days are more safe, because there will be much more to analyse about the loud players and Day3 -> is known for analysing and not quiet/loud discussion.
That is just an assumption based on how things usually go and I'm not saying that lynching a quiet person on Day1 is a solution to everything. All players aren't sure of whom to vote on Day1 and often claim their vote random. I think Day1 "random" votes should rather be directed at quiet players, because otherwise they'll be directed at the quiet players on later Days for paranoia more than clear thoughts.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think that loud people make loud wolves and quiet people make quiet wolves

Except Gil-Galad. Good point though!


Legate, you make me suspect you (#33, 34) . I know you're a friendly player, but this is seems a bit too friendly, although I too would like to thank for good posts... The feeling that you're backing up others more than showing yourself is what makes me wonder. Please, would you try to say your thoughts a bit clearer.


It seems that the suspicion is leaning to Valier. Maybe what she said was just badly phrased, but she's one of suspects too.


#36, #37: I'd trust an Innocent Rikae's gut feelings about Mac. Which isn't saying much at this point... :/


Brinniel is a question mark for now.


EDIT: Xd with Legate

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The Might - Newbie or no newbie, I dislike his "I don't know who to vote for, so I'll vote a quiet one" statement. As the 3rd post of the day, that's a cop-out if I ever saw one. Of course you don't know yet; but why set up an easy vote when hardly anyone has even spoken? As he IS a newbie, I'm inclined to view this as a reaction to the last game and nothing more -- for now.

Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring.

Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate.

That was my mistake indeed as I typed my post and forgot to hit submit, not that it matters. Just a bit of clarification. And I am being horribly unproductive. Just read my posts and am surprised people are even bothering to read them. Perhaps the next day I'll be more helpful as I'll have gotten some proper sleep.


I'm already late for class, so here's my take on who we should vote or not vote (in a general sense). I apologize in advance as it will indeed be generalized and probably largely unhelpful, but I'll give it a shot.

I'm reluctant to vote a quiet person just based on their being quiet, as I alluded to before. I'm also hesitant to vote a loud one for the same reason. If someone who is more awake than I wants to somehow unmask a wolf using their cunning and generally snazzy brain power, I'm all for it. But until then I'm thinking that we're going to be running on an educated guess, if even that. Do what you want with my two cents (except throw it at my head lol).


Gotta run! Back a couple hours before deadline to check in.