WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Thinlómien]

The only people Valier mentioned were The Might and morm.

As to The Might, she only disagreed with his tactic about lynching the quiet, so that is hardly going to lead us anywhere.

Morm then... this is more complicated... Valier said she's getting a "weird vibe" from him, which sounds like a seerish comment.

Originally Posted by Val

This time he is very quiet and unopinionated which is odd for him. Since he has not posted a reason why, I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve.

On the other hand, here she reasons her opinion like any villager with no extra insight. Although, I think - and the wolves could have thought that way too - that a seer would have said this as well as an ordo, since unrevealed seers need to reason their votes as much as other people.

Originally Posted by Val

Right now I am leaning towards Morm....not that I have a good reason...just well a feeling. Sometimes my feelings lead me astray, but I find when in doubt it is best to listen to them.

Here she both talks about feelings in a manner that could be interpreted as seerish and underlines she has no good reason to suspect morm, which could be seen as a way of trying to make her seem not like a seer who had dreamed of him. On the other hand, it looks like she was plainly talking about gut-feelings (which probably was true as she was an ordo...).

Basically, you can read those quotes in either way. If the wolves assumed Valier to be the seer (like I think they did) one can read her posts the way that she had probably dreamed of morm or the way that even if she had been the seer it would have been just a normal suspicion.

If I try to imagine her as the seer, it sounds more like she had dreamt of morm than that she hadn't, but on the other hand, why would she as the seer suspected morm-wolf that loudly? So her being killed as the seer doesn't necessarily point at morm being a wolf. I mean, the wolves might have killed her even if morm was an innocent. Certainly the wolves knew, though, that Valier's death would point at morm.

I think I'm slightly confused with my own logic and not sure that I make sense at all, but I think that the combination of that "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" -comment and morm's guilt would be a very good reason for the wolves to try to get rid of Valier and thus I suspect morm.

I mean, that comment of Valier's wasn't a foolproof seer hint. It didn't occur to me that she might be the seer and it seems it didn't occur to our ranger either. But it did occur to the wolves. Why? Because they're sharper and more avid to catch seer hint than I and the ranger? Maybe. Because one of them was supected by Valier so that it really looked like she was the seer? I think that would be a better and more waterproof explanation.

I'm far from confident of morm's guilt, but he has taken the place of my top suspect, thanks to Valier's death.

EDIT: xed with everybody

[A Little Green]

Oh, so brutal.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think I'm slightly confused with my own logic and not sure that I make sense at all, but I think that the combination of that "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" -comment and morm's guilt would be a very good reason for the wolves to try to get rid of Valier and thus I suspect morm.

Well, Lommie, I'm not quite sure. Wouldn't that be a little too obvious?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At least one of the wolves is rather quiet and Valier was considered dangerous as she said we should keep an eye on the quiet ones.

True. But we shouldn't forget, either, what Valier wrote in her first post.

Originally Posted by Valier

It is way easier for a Wolf to stay hidden by being loud and opinionated than it is to stay quiet and subdued.

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.

And, because Nerwen was innocent and because Lommy definitely is loud, I think I'll have to look through her posts again (that will be a lot of work, though, given how much she has posted... ).

EDIT: x-ed with Fea

[mormegil]

Lommy and the other wolves you make me laugh! What a cheap attempt at a frame job if I've ever seen one. Let's see...take the person who received the second most votes and kill the person who had nothing more than a hunch and set her up as the seer. Not quite so clever and hopefully futile. The more I read Lommy the more I'm convinced of her guilt.

Of course, those who know me well know that this is a bluff I would try to pull off so there is a problem for many people. My guess is that voting will come down to either Lommy or me. I trust the village to look at things objectively and decide correct...of course, something drastic could happen that changes the course of the day but I doubt it.

Fea, the problem is I feel it far more likely that the wolves didn't mention Valier much if at all. That is the general Modus Operandi of first night kills.

[Brinniel]

Well, while I do think there's a chance the wolves thought Valier a seer, I would find it strange that they would kill her if morm's a wolf. After all, if she had been revealed as a seer, her death would directly point to morm as she suspected him so strongly. The wolves should know that a were-morm would most likely be lynched if that situation were to occur. I suppose they could've been worried she would reveal or a second wolf was in danger of being dreamt of, too. If morm is furry, then by killing Valier (thinking she's a seer), he is practically choosing to sacrifice himself for the other wolves. Well, I suppose that's always a possibility.

But it's also possible the wolves killed Valier to simply incriminate morm. And probably more likely.

EDIT: X-ed with morm, Fea, Rikae, Menel (sorry, I'm multi-tasking)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.

But wouldn't it be best to suspect those who look the most suspicious, in spite of whether they're loud or quiet? Of course the posts of the louder ones shouldn't be overlooked in order to concentrate on the quiet players, or vice versa, but what you said looks a bit too generalized...

Sorry if this post doesn't make sense. Something troubles me in Greenie's last post and I can't put my finger on it.

Mrs. Sackville-Baggins is off to sleep.

edit: xed since mormegil.

[Kath]

I must admit I have skimmed the narration, I will have to go back in a bit and see what all the nastiness was about.

But Valier dead. I find myself agreeing with those who think her death may have been due to the wolves thinking she was the Seer. I don't really recall Valier making such a thing of the fact that she can catch people on hunches so early on in the past, and I think it quite possible that the wolves thought she was hiding her Seerness behind those feelings. Of course, it is also entirely possible that they killed her off because they know how dangerous a player she can be, but if you're looking for Seer hints on the first Night you've a chance to, I'd say Valier left some accidental ones.

However, as it happens the wolves were, thankfully, wrong, and that brings me to a point from toDay.

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.

That's from Greenie. It was a reply to something Valier had said, but while it looks like a disagreement it is actually an agreement to what our now departed friend said, so I must say that I don't understand the comment. In addition, it's an incredibly generalised statement about something that was argued yesterDay. It seems like Greenie is trying to take us back to yesterDay's arguments and that's strange.

What else has been happening? Oh yes, Lommy is trying to work out whether this is a frame up or a clever double bluff for morm. Well, morm was a little shouty in reply but that is actually pretty understandable given that Lommy practically gave him no way out! Having said that though, I'm pretty used to Lommy trying out every available situation in one post so I'm thinking she's innocent at the moment. morm too for that matter, as he reacted normally rather than defensively to being accused, at least to my mind.

Fea, argh! Such loooong posts to go through, and as yet no comment on them. Getting everything together is certainly helpful, but I'd like some of her own words as well.

Hmm, think I'd better stop as I believe I have cross-posted with a LOT of people ... I can see the emails coming through. Plus, I'm kinda out of thoughts for a bit.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Fea, argh! Such loooong posts to go through, and as yet no comment on them. Getting everything together is certainly helpful, but I'd like some of her own words as well.

I have to work tonight, so I tried to schedule out what I was doing so that I wouldn't have to leave in the middle of anything. So I got together all the information I wanted to look at, and once I'm at work I'll look at it.

So you'll get some of my own words. Pinkie promise.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Well, Lommie, I'm not quite sure. Wouldn't that be a little too obvious?

Well, possibly, but usually wolves are willing to sacrifice one of their own to get rid of the seer ie they do go after seer-like people even if it points back at them.

Originally Posted by Little G

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.

And, because Nerwen was innocent and because Lommy definitely is loud, I think I'll have to look through her posts again (that will be a lot of work, though, given how much she has posted... ).

Well that is definitely quite wolfy a comment. I don't like how you pick Valier's comment about loud people and with no good reason (as far as I see) conclude that it is more important than her comment about quiet people. Seems like you're using her opinion to achieve your own ends, not to try to find the baddies. It's very suspicious in my opinion. I mean, Valier said two almost opposite things and I can't see why would anyone innocent just pick one of them and start accusing people because of it. For surely it's obvious that if Valier was both for lynching quiet and loud people, we can't really say which ones would consider her a bigger threat? And the convenient way how you move on from saying that loud people would have liked to kill Valier to suspecting me just seems all too wolvishly simplified and flowing to me.

So right now my main suspect is morm and another person I suspect to some extent is Little Green. Great. I find two people suspicious (no, I really don't find Brinn suspicious enough to be included) in a village of 16 living people (discounting myself) in which there are four wolves...

EDIT: xed with morm, Fea, Rikae, Menel, Brinn and Agan.... huh.

[Thinlómien]

Oh couldn't she? In spite of the fact that it was Day 1? Really, Lommy, you know better than to say this. I suppose you're hoping that we will refrain from following day one suspicions now that two were proven innocent, or that this kill will look like an attempt to frame you, but yesterday you looked more furry to me with every post and this does not help.

What? An attempt to frame me? How? I'm really not following your logic.

What I meant by that strongly suspect-comment was that surely someone who says "I'm quite confident x is innocent" doesn't seem very seerish to wolves if x is one of them? Or it doesn't at least make them think the someone's a seer in the first place. I mean, seers tend to be careful with their suspicions because if they die, they don't want their words to be misinterpreted. And I'd like to add that I said it all depends on the actual wording. You're overlooking that part of my post a bit too happily.

I think it is possible that a partial reason to Valier's death was that the wolves wanted to frame morm, but that creates more questions than it answers to. Why did the wolves choose to make a frame-up kill? It is quite rare, after all. Maybe to confuse us just because of that, but wouldn't they have rather gone after seer (or ranger) -looking people? And if the wolves really chose to frame somebody, why did they pick morm?

EDIT: xed with everybody since my last post

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm far from confident of morm's guilt, but he has taken the place of my top suspect, thanks to Valier's death.

Thing is, I really don't think morm would kill Valier. It makes a lot more sense that the wolves are trying to frame him. I know he'd sacrifice himself for a cause (he's done it before), but it just seems so outright stupid for a morm-wolf to kill a villager in the night who seemed to have dreamt about him. Except that it's such a transparent set up that I can't help but think maybe the wolves aren't really trying to frame him, they're just trying to make it look like they are?

In any case, I'm leaning toward morm's innocence. I just don't think he'd have killed Val, especially if she'd dreamt of him. It's just too self-incriminating.

[Farael]

Here's a post I wrote last night, after reading all the posts from day 1 and knowing Nerwen's role. Coment on last night's kill coming up.

------------------------
A few thoughts on the happenings of yester-Day in the light of Nerwen's innocence. But first

Originally Posted by Loomy

This seems a bit vulgar of her. Everybody who's played with her she knows she truly has incredible hunches, but that kind of self-advertisement seems slightly furr (Refering to Valier talking about her hunches)

Loomy, are you kiddin' me? I've made a living out of boasting about my shrewd hunches... and being extremely loud and stubborn. I don't think that Valier is doing anything wrong, but not all of us are as analytical as you. Having said that, my comment was more a *gasp OMG* defense of Valier than an attack on you.

Dang man, did he just defend someone?? (I know, it's a moot point now)What's he going to do next? accuse someone on somewhat circumstancial evidence?


You bet.Would you expect any less from me?

Originally Posted by Rikae

There was definately a sense of Lommy going after Nerwen, pointing out her defensiveness and making her more defensive in the process. I've been at the other end of those sorts of tactics, and it's difficult to emerge unscathed. However, it could also be an instance of good wolf-hunting on Lommy's part. I found Nerwen suspicious to begin with, but at this point, it's difficult to sort out whether her continued suspicious behavior is provoked or real. Not just wolves, but some innocents, behave that way when backed into a corner.

Furthermore

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I think if I want Nerwen in the running, I have to do it myself, before adding a new candidate is totally out. If she turns out innocent, I'll definately be looking at Lommy as a possible wolf. As I said, I don't find The Might suspicious. I don't see any point in voting for Morm now - there just isn't enough to go on - and I think that knowing the role of Nerwen will shed more light on the Lommy question, while the opposite might not be true.

++Nerwen

Look how Rikae deflects the "Nerwen accusation" to Loomy... and yet, not only Rikae is the first one to vote for Nerwen... she's the one to start the accusations!!!

To me, that sounds like a very clever tactic... offer the bait, and if an eager fish bites on it let them run free... they'll look suspicious and thus you not only kill an ordo, but you make another ordo look bad. Win-win situation anyone?

Rikae's accusation of Nerwen is here

Originally Posted by Rikwolf

Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing.

Now, a word of caution should be said

Waaaaa? First he defended someone, now he's going to flip-flop within his very first post?

I've played in the past with Rikae and disliked her (game-wise, of course) from Day 1, even though I think she was an ordo (can't quite recall). She is very agressive (again, game-wise) and not afraid to point fingers, she went at me with a vengeance that one game!!

However, that's EXACTLY why I suspect her right now. When she started suspecting Nerwen she seemed a little off, but then most people do... but when she shifted the accusations on to Loomy, even though Rikae had started them herself, she looked wolfish. After all, in the past, she's never been afraid to accuse someone!

And neither have I. She's a wolf, or I'll eat my two feet!!

--Farael Twofoot.

P.S: It's a shame that I missed day 1... one of my characters on the LoTR MMORPG is called Folco Twofoot and he's the loveliest of hobbits, I meant to post in-character as him but I never had a chance.

P.P.S: Since Fea mentioned that she did the same thing The Might did when she was guilty, I should mention that I reacted the exact same way one time I was being accused and I was an ordo. I just got frustrated that no-one would listen. I don't think his behaviour is particularly fishy, but it's not a "get out of jail free" card either. Veteran players who have played with me know that I've proven once and again that you can say just about any insanity and go unlynched, while you can say all the right things and gather a lot of suspicion.

That's why I'm not afraid of speaking my mind. Not to mention that The Might does have a point... Werewolf HAS gotten formulaic, while analysis are useful sometimes, they also bog down the game IMO. It's not a basis for suspecting people, as it has become "good manners" to do long, analytical posts where you have tons of quotes and you look at the whole village all at once.

But in my opinion, those posts are useless at this stage of the game.

FIrst of all, we have a near-full complement of villagers, but little hard information to go by. Hard information being:
-Voting patterns
-A dead wolf to analyze his behaviour towards certain people
-A revelation by a Seer

Therefore, I find it more useful in the first few days to go out there and cause a reaction. If everyone is reacting to everyone else, then when we finally nail a wolf (and it will happen) we'll have hard data (the way the wolf acted/reacted towards others). If all we do are long lists that have much content but little reaction and are very well thought-out, we have no evidence.

Why? because reactions are often less premeditated than analysis posts, and therefore more likely to contain a little slip of the furry tounge. Conversely, while writing an analysis, a wolf may look ten times over for those "red flags" that we are all used to noticing. So he posts a red-flag free, seemingly helpful analysis and who's going to suspect him for it? Sure, he might get it all wrong, but don't we all?...


Wow, that's a lot of text... but I'd like to go back to my accusation. Rikae looks suspicious, as she started the accusations against Nerwen, she was the first one to vote for Nerwen and yet she made it look as if it was Loomy who was agressively going after Nerwen. Fishy Fishy Furry.

Edit: Crossed with everyone after FEa's long post of everyone who mentioned VAlier

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, there's something I hadn't noticed, Farael. Thank you for bringing that to our attention.

I think we may have our Nerwen-voter wolf. Rikae's frequent accusations of her weren't good to begin with, but pinning the blame on someone else is worse.

Also noteworthy is that both Rikae and mormegil have been pointing fingers at Lommy. Conspiracy, perhaps? Of course, it could just as easily be a coincidence.

[Volo]

Ok, more stuff - quickly:

1. I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.


2. Rikae, why did you drop your style (voted self on Day1 in her first post, was it?) from the preveous game so totally and completely? Last game you seemed to regard Day1 as a waste of time and now you're so certain that the Wolves can be found by analysis already on Day1. This is just a questing, it has been bothering me.


3. Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon. I wouldn't concentrate on her too much toDay. Basicly because I don't suspect her a lot. Post #126 seems genuine at the very least, a Wolf wouldn't have phrased her words so, unless Lommy did a very smart bluff on purpose.


X:d with everything since my preveous post. Now I'm totally offline.

[Farael]

I have little to add about today's happenings. I still don't like Rikae (game-wise), Loomy is looking a little flip-floppy... as usual, so no problem there ... and Morm's reaction was expectable.

About Valier's death, I'd think that the wolves found an easy target that made a weird seer-like comment and figured that it was a win-win situation. If they nailed the Seer great, if not it'd toss the village in for a spin.

The odds of the Seer finding a wolf on Night 0 are 1/18 right? so I don't think the wolve's kill tonight makes Morm look bad at this stage of the game. Later on we may come back and see it in a different light.

[mormegil]

In post 175 I talk about the voting pattern and conclude that the most likely based on that are Menel and Volo. In 215 I voted Volo based on my gut because honestly I didn't have anything better and wasn't fully caught up nor would I be on that day. In post 316 I bring up how Green spoke about Lommy and Volo and it is analagous to how I view wolves treating each other. Post 352 I give a short quote from Volo talking about Menel. Both seem wolfish...I've spent more time on Menel and so the interaction again reminds me of wolfishness.

So honestly, I haven't had much to go on with Volo but only voted for him once and I stated unequivocally that it was my gut and no real hard evidence. Up to today I don't think I had much by way of hard evidence. I still don't think I've got a full lock on anybody so I try to keep my mind open. Time is a finite resource for me so I focus my intentions where I feel they are needed most. With so much 'Kill Morm' talk I've been doing a bit more defending than I like but I have honestly been trying to bring up points against multiple people...you included Kuru. While my points seem valid to me, they probably are rubbish so generally ignored.

What I find odd is how annoyed you keep getting at my talking about wolf tactics...should I instead talk about seer tactics? I believe we are in the business of killing wolves...it's not odd to get a crimincal pychologist to think like a criminal does...I think it's very helpful to spot those trends and more than anything that is what I am trying to do. Yet, you reprimand me for it...why?

Also Kuru, I find it odd that while I have tried to bring up many points against many people you harp on Volo and the lack of things I've done there. Why focus in on that when I've said, again what I consider decent, things about others who look suspicious but yet I don't have the time to do lengthy posts about everyone or stay up till 3AM basically chatting instead of searching for wolves (Kuru I'm not pointing to you on this one just a little annoyed at having to spend that finite time reading irrelevant blather)

Originally Posted by Kuru

Or do you have a very good reason why the last thing you'd want to do is say something that could definitively be pegged to you?

Come now Kuru, I think it's hard to believe that I have not been outspoken.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Morm, I do agree with you about Volo, but it seems a bit strange that you immediately call wolf on Kuru as soon as he begins speaking out against you. Care to explain that?

[Farael]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Also Kuru, I find it odd that while I have tried to bring up many points against many people you harp on Volo and the lack of things I've done there.

Well, it may just be a difference of tactics, but certainly worth mentioning... just like long analysis posts about everyone in the village, what is the point on mentioning lots suspects when only three can be wolves? Unless we do a double/triple lynching we won't kill them all at the same time anyway, and we won't do that 'cos too many things can go wrong (including the fact that our lynchees may very well be ordos). Therefore, why not make a credible accusation at one or two suspicious folks, rather than staying with the knee-jerk reflex of "I suspect whoever suspects me."

I've fallen for that trap before, as a newbie ordo I knew I was an ordo and therefore other people's suspicions always seemed furry... then I learned that people may suspect you and still be an ordo. Morm you've been around long enough that you know it too. Once or twice a game it's bound to happen that someone will suspect you for the wildest of reasons and you'll come out screaming WOOOLLLLFFF!!! But you've done it to everyone who's suspected you.

... I don't have the time to do lengthy posts about everyone or stay up till 3AM basically chatting instead of searching for wolves (Kuru I'm not pointing to you on this one just a little annoyed at having to spend that finite time reading irrelevant blather)

Out-of-game commentary... sorry to annoy you Morm, but when you stay up unti 3 AM reading up on muscle physiology, any "human contact" is welcome... and c'mon, there were what, four posts of "irrelevant blather"?

Having said that, let's not forget this is still a game among what I hope qualifies as friends, if not friendly people... a little chit-chat won't kill anyone, as long as it's not bogging the game down

[/out_of_game]

Edit: Crossed with Kuruharan and Brinniel

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I was here reading but as I said, I don't have energy to write anything new, just a conclusion: after all I have read, up to Volo's post now above me*, I still stand behind all I said in my post, so it's still valid. These are my last words for now and let me only say that morm's reply, though very, how to say that, intelligent-looking, made me think more that he indeed can be a part of the wolf-clan, prepared to create havoc centered on him with the result left to destiny, either he survives or heroically dies for the pack. It's, let's say, 60% now for me that it is like that (before, it was 50-50 for me whether he is or is not). That's the only change.

*Oh, and yes, I didn't read Farael as it seems to open a whole new topic (also from a totally "new" person), I will do so tomorrow.

Really leaving. Bye.

EDIT: okay, x-ed with Farael. What he says more or less accords to what I think - as you can read above in my post. I like this post of him. Will read the long one later. REALLY leaving. Bye.

[Brinniel]

Is it possible that the wolves thought Valier to be the seer without morm being a wolf? After all, she did give seer hints (particularly the "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" sentence) and there's a good chance she had not dreamt of morm, but someone who turned out innocent. If the wolves thought Valier was the seer, she would be a perfect pick...framing morm would be a bonus.

And then there's the discussion of Rikae being furry, which I think is a possibility. Her comments towards Lommy are very accusing and threatening (well, so are morm's but his are more defensive). She could easily be setting up a second lynch candidate here, seeing she's already getting some support. If morm is lynched and turns out innocent, Lommy must be guilty, right? Not necessarily. But that might be what the wolves want us to think. I disagree with what Lommy says; I don't think Valier's death should be the main reason to suspect morm. But I'm not sure her weird analysis makes her wolvish- in fact, what she says is almost too attention grabbing and suspicious looking to belong to that of someone furry.

P.S. I second Green's question. What do you mean by "sporty," Volo? That word can hold a lot of different meanings, I think.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Post 140. My post.

The one where I had a list of each of Valier's posts.

I accidentally hit 'edit' instead of quote when I went to post my opinions.

And then when I finished I hit save.

So I just deleted that post by accident, replacing it with

Originally Posted by me

Why I think Val was killed (based on her posts)
Valier's own words (chronologically):

Lynch the loud.

Day one is irksome, given lack of useable evidence.

She's innocent.

Morm is sketching her out by being quiet--
--isn't acting like himself--
--without excusing the change--
"I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve."

She's innocent.

Morm's sketching her out--
--but she doesn't have evidence, just a feeling--
--she might not be right, but she'd rather find out through lynching morm--

Don't kill her, her feelings are sure to find at least one wolf.

She only has her instincts as 'proof.'

"Tomorrow is another day and if I survive till then it will be all the brighter"

And then she votes for morm.

---

Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

Quote:
the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try).
and

Quote:
Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once.
So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.

I suck.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Is it possible that the wolves thought Valier to be the seer without morm being a wolf? After all, she did give seer hints (particularly the "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" sentence) and there's a good chance she had not dreamt of morm, but someone who turned out innocent. If the wolves thought Valier was the seer, she would be a perfect pick...framing morm would be a bonus.

I think it's absolutely possible. I find it very odd indeed that people have concocted this whole story of Morm-framing or of Valier seeming to have been "on to" something, when, had she been a seer, she would only have known one role (if she would have known that -- do seers get night 1 dreams in this game?)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Volo

I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.

Volo, could you explain that point? Might be due to my being very very tired, but I don't quite grasp it. And also, what do you mean by "sporty" in that other post of yours? Some advanced werewolf-slang, is it? If so, well I don't get it

Like I said, I'm quite tired now and not thinking very clearly, so I think I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone, I'll come checking as soon as I wake up

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Little Green

Like I said, I'm quite tired now and not thinking very clearly, so I think I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone, I'll come checking as soon as I wake up

Yes, do go away and leave the computer to me... mwahahahaa... And when you come back tomorrow, please explain that loud-thing. I'd be interested to hear your answer.

Farael has a very good point against Rikae. After she had talked about my and Nerwen's "strife" and quite clearly argued against me, she suddenly voted Nerwen. I was quite surprised as I had thought she'd vote me. Now that you brought that weird thing up again, I really think I should have a better look at Rikae for there's certainly something odd about her.

All in all, Farael seems less insane than normal , actually, he's making very much sense, and I don't know if it should make me feel worried or comfortable, but I'm inclined to think him innocent.

Originally Posted by Menel

Also noteworthy is that both Rikae and mormegil have been pointing fingers at Lommy. Conspiracy, perhaps? Of course, it could just as easily be a coincidence.

The idea of a conspiracy sounds a bit far-fetched, but on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if both of them turned out to be wolves. I need to think more about this...

Originally Posted by Farael

The odds of the Seer finding a wolf on Night 0 are 1/18 right? so I don't think the wolve's kill tonight makes Morm look bad at this stage of the game. Later on we may come back and see it in a different light.

Now that is a bit faulty matemathics. For surely we don't have just one wolf? So it's 4/18 = 2/9 chance.

edit: xed with Brinn and Fea

[Rikae]

Yes, Mr. Twofeet, I absolutely started the accusations against Nerwen, and yes indeed, I think that the way Lommy followed those suspicions looked wolfish. First suspicions with little to go on are frequently more revealing by the reactions of others than in themselves (Roa-hunter and my grandmother, a ranger, once used that tactic to catch a wolf.) If there had been retractable votes, I might have even switched votes to Lommy late in the day -- then again, maybe not, as I'm afraid I'm a bit biased toward people I've played many games with before (gasp!)
I simply have the feeling that she jumped on a possible bandwagon too quickly, and then, when Nerwen was the top candidate, washed her paws of the matter with all that "I have a bad feeling..." business.

Volo, you seem to have completely misinterpreted my suicide in the last game. It meant the opposite of what you think it did.

Well, my top suspect is Lommy, and that's that. Farael is right - we should not suspect him, because he always behaves this way. Thank you for pointing that out to us, Farael.

Oh, I would also like to say this: I'm no longer so sure about Macalaure.

[Meneltarmacil]

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

Well, this might not be entirely fair, but last time he was a wolf (which I found out after I was dead), I told him that the reason he tends to be caught when he's a baddie is that he is too tentative then, whereas innocent Mac is usually very decisive with his suspicions. Yesterday he seemed almost gloating over my calling him innocent, and then he went after Volo in a way that seems almost like a caricature of innocent-Mac.

However, that only raises doubts in my mind, not actual suspicion at this point.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

NOTICE: cross-posted with all since Fea's long post "Everybody that directly mentioned her". I don't have time (or more, energy) to write another thing corresponding to the posts I x-posted with, but I will surely think about them till tomorrow. The main point of this is that the concerned person, morm, has posted meanwhile.

I don't have probably much to add to what was already said. I believe most of what was voiced makes sense, except for, as always, my wife, who is chatting here and making improbable theories instead of preparing something to eat for me (that's how it works at us Sackville-Bagginses). What I mean: Agan, the reasons you say could have been also reasons for her getting killed seem to be very, very weak points. I mean, seriously, I don't think anyone would kill Valier only because he considered her hunches dangerous or that he was a quiet one (that seems really silly to me because there were others speaking about quiet ones and, anyway, surely not ALL the wolves are quiet ones? Or what? Well they could be, but I believe everyone focuses, to a certain extent, on the quiet ones. At least in certain stage of the game it would come). These could have been secondary reasons, but if one of them were, there had to be also one primary reason that was not one of these two. And that I believe to be her comment:

Originally Posted by Valier

But please I beg you...give me more time to help this village out, I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends.

As it was said. I think it's as simple as that: the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try). That seems the most probable to me. The question would be, what part in their reasoning plays morm - is he one of them? Could be: it's not very clever for a wolf to eliminate a person who seems to nail you, the more if he later shows to be a Seer who dreamt of you (which could very well be true), but still it's better to eliminate her when she speaks only about "hunches" and while she does not say yet "he is a wolf, because I dreamt of him". Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once. Third possibility, they simply did not care and the main thing was killing Valier. Fourth possibility, morm is one of them and he wanted to use this as a double-trick, as he could cover himself by saying "of course had I been a wolf I wouldn't have done that". But the latter seems the least probable to me, because no one says it would even work. It would be more like a random toss: okay, it will bring me in the spotlight, let's see if I can save myself or not.
But all of this is stemming from the basic idea, as I said, that Valier was killed because of being the Seer. It's not the only possibility, but for me really the most probable. I can't just imagine a clever wolf-morm saying "Arrgh! Valier voted me, we must kill her!" as the only reason. He would have three companions to calm him down, in any case.

So, as I said - I agree with the basic opinion that was outlined here, and for the finish before I go to sleep, I can say my feelings on the posts of the people who appeared here today this far. Lommy, especially her last (totally confused ) post strike me as very innocentish (if you are a wolf, Lommy, this far you are fooling me brilliantly). Sally makes me quite nervous with these cannibalistic notes, but she is always like that, as far as I noticed. The Might holds up to the image I have created of him, so even he looks more or less okay. Fea is helpful... very helpful. Does she do that always? Agan, last but not least, seems genuine, though... though. Her points that I criticised above play no role in that - they seem genuine. Simply wrong (from my POV) opinions. But the general way of the post can be also that a wolf has arrived here, realised where the wind is turning to and posted according to it. But who knows.

I'm leaving now. Bye.