WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[mormegil]

So in reading over what Macalaure has said about Nogrod is interesting. His sole focus from essentially the first post was Nogrod and Nogrod alone. There is one post in which he considers a few others but it's merely a cursory glance.

Rereading his arguments I find some lucidity in them, which for day 1 is rather surprising. I have been vacillating between him being innocent and guilty and have leaned both ways and frustratingly I'm no nearer to a conclusion. It's irritating too because I am trying to look at others but I really want some finality in my mind. I will continue to give it more thought. In the meantime I notice that SpM has given a response to The Might that is almost identical to what I would give.

Originally Posted by SpM

Unless, of course he and Nerwen are fellow Wolves. Which could explain why Nogrod didn’t vote for her. Although it doesn’t explain why he didn’t vote for Shasta.

It may not have mattered who he voted for at that point. For convinience I'm going to copy the voting list SpM already included.

Boro: ++Kath (Kath 1)
Mac: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 1)
SpM: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 2)
Kath: ++Nerwen (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1)
Farael: ++Shasta (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Boro: --Kath (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Valier: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 1)
Rikae: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 2)
Shasta: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2)
Morm: ++Boro (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2, Boro 1)
Nerwen: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Isabellkya: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Aganzir: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Nogrod: ++Rikae (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: ++Boro (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 2, Rikae 1)
Shasta: --Nerwen, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: --Boro, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Eomer: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Boro: ++Shasta (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 4, Boro 1, Rikae 1)

The legate switch vote is interesting as it essentially put away Nogrod and if Nerwen is a wolf it could be argued that Legate is also one and that his vote was to help prove innocence. If Boro or Eomer (not both) is a wolf that could explain why they didn't vote Nogrod but I think I'm off base and geting into unrealistic scenarios...however with that said Eomer and Boromir are perfect candidates to pull off the most unrealistic of scenarios.

Looking at earlier voting, there seems to be a lot of 'safe' votes honestly. It became very clear that there were only 3 legitimate candidates for day 1 and it would be very helpful to know what they were....we do know 2 of the 3 so in that regard the wolves helped us out a bit by killing Shasta. Knowing if Nerwen is a wolf would help tremendously in figuring out the voting pattern.

Speaking of Nerwen she still seems to be a top suspect, which I feel is good as she hasn't sat right with me but I haven't done much independent investigative work on her as I've been focused elsewhere. Honestly, I know this sounds callous, I suggest lynching Nerwen to figure out what she is and I suspect there is a good chance she is a wolf. A lot of questions would be answered. Of course, we shouldn't kill her unless there is sufficient suspicion which I feel there is a good deal of so far. I hope to be able to review her a bit more on my own soon. If I do, it will likely be much later in the day though. Can anybody help me out here?

Although now I'm looking at things a bit differently...Would the wolves, assuming Nerwen is a wolf, have all voted for one of their own? If not, it doesn't make sense to kill Shasta. ARGH! I feel I keep talking myself in circles...I'm really just typing as I think so sorry for my endless ramblings as I sit here and stare at the voting record trying to make some sense of it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

It may not have mattered who he voted for at that point. For convinience I'm going to copy the voting list SpM already included.

But it actually does matter, because in this game it's the last one to reach the total that gets it. So he could have got Shasta or me lynched quite easily, as long as he waited until there was no time left for anyone else to vote.

[Valier]

Well I'm off to bed and not too much progress has been made today. We are back to the 24 hour cycle now right? So day ends at 10:00 pm GMT right? If so I won't have alot of time in the morning to read everything and vote and I won't be back till a couple hours past the deadline....So it looks like I will have to vote for someone now.

Uggg I'm not too sure, hopefully if anything changes overnight I will have time to change my vote before I go to work if needed.

++Aganzir

Not too much to go on, but circumstances surrounding her makes her suspicious in my books. Next on my list would be The Might or Macalaure. So if Aganzir has some good points before I go I may just change.

Sorry 'bout the flip-floppy but it's been fairly quiet and I'm just unsure.

[Nerwen]

Valier, what are your reasons for suspecting The Might?