WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Looks like things are flowing slowly, yet are flowing. Let me add my two cents to the debate.

Concerning Farael, he does not seem suspicious to me. I wouldn't say he is "too friendly" - I played with him only a few times so I don't know his style as well as some others here, yet he does not raise any alarms and in fact seems quite genuine and helpful, or at least trying to be helpful. So I'm not bothered with him this far.

My problem with Miggy is rather that he acts differently than in the games before: he acts more on his own behalf, does not "go with the flow" but stands against it. Which is also what concerns his vote yesterDay. And now I see he holds his case even toDay. A stubborn Miggy could very well hide his wolfishness behind his stubborness. Hm. I don't have any particular view on Eomer, in fact, I did not focus on him much till this time, however (and because) there was nothing particularly alarming about him, at least to me. So I cannot judge TM on this basis, maybe he just spotted something I didn't. Also, maybe it is indeed only that Miggy has more time on his hands, as he says, and so he has the chance to form his own opinions.

Originally Posted by TM

Also, I dislike the way that my posts have been understood as a wolf helping another, but I actually thought that might happen.

Now what to make of this? Is this "oh my, I knew things are going to get wrong, but you know, I just did that"? Honest? Or is it a dodge from the wolvish Might?

Well, I cannot say I would be strongly convinced of TM's guilt, yet, I consider him as one of the possible suspects and if there are no better candidates toDay, I may vote him. But it's still a long time till DL and I will wait and use the time to sort my thoughts on everything.

[The Saucepan Man]

A bit of a long one, I am afraid, but there’s quite a bit to catch up on.

Originally Posted by Mac

That was all I had yesterday. Yes, it's not much, I know.

And yet you accuse me of having a weak case against you! What I don’t understand is that you major on Aganzir, yet you say nothing about Legate. His vote for Nogrod looks much more suspicious than hers to me, coming as it did after Nog‘s very weak reasoning against Rikae. I agree that there was most likely a Wolf among the Nog voters, but I reckon that it was either you or Legate. Perhaps both.

Originally Posted by The Might

So please don't try to twist things as you want them to sound like.

What is it toDay with people accusing me of twisting the facts?! All I said was that, of all the votes yesterDay, yours looks the most like a ‘throwaway’ vote. Which it does.

Originally Posted by Boro

As far as Mac, I figure he spotted a wolf on Day 1, might as well trust him, until he is horribly wrong.

I disagree. If he’s a Wolf, he’s a dangerous one. Better to lynch him now than later. And your comparison with Nog eventually being spotted in a previous village by virtue of him not having been killed doesn’t work here, to my mind. Most villagers here are strong players, so I should imagine that a few will remain for him to hide amongst.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, The Might has not "constantly defended" me, or anything like it.

Actually, reading morm’s analysis, which accords with my recollection (and Boro‘s subsequent analysis), he has pretty much, at least on Day 1.

Legate, I am not going to respond to your analysis of me in detail. It was pretty accurate actually, save for the asides. But we all know that one can approach an analysis of someone with a certain feeling and find that it justifies that feeling (or, indeed, that one can craft an analysis with Wolfish intent). It is interesting, though, that you decided to analyse in detail one of the few people (the only person?) who seriously suspects you. One point that I will respond to, though:

Originally Posted by Legate

Then he seems to constantly go after me by hinting, hinting on my vote for Nog being suspicious, yet not acting on his own account. "Voice of Saruman", indeed.

For goodness, sake, this is much the same (bad) point as the one that Mac raised earlier. I explained why I voted for Valier yesterDay but, as I have said above, I do still believe that there was at least one Wolf among the Nog voters.

Finally (for now), I am becoming a tad concerned about Boro. He’s been acting awfully strange toDay. There may well be a good (as in virtuous) explanation for it, but it looks plain weird to me. I don’t understand his reasoning for ‘clearing’ morm at all. But the question for me is should we trust him?

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, so here’s where I am at the moment.

Mac remains my strongest suspect. I think it quite credible that he started out on Day 1 Wolfishly trying to distance himself from Nog but that, when the votes started to come in, they switched to ‘plan B’ - the lynching of Noggie to make Mac look good. It seems that Mac’s ‘spotting’ of Noggie remains the reason why some are not prepared to vote for him so, if I am right, the plan has worked to a degree. His overly-aggressive responses to me earlier toDay have only served to reinforce my suspicion of him.

Legate has promoted himself to second on my suspect list. His Noggie vote looks ‘forced’ to me and could well have been planned between them. His decision to analyse me toDay, the one (I think) person who has expressed serious suspicion of him, looks to me like a possible attempt to make be back off, but it has had quite the opposite effect on me.

I am still vaguely uneasy about Aganzir. She could be a Wolf with Legate, but I highly doubt that she’s one with Mac. Of the Nog-voters, though, hers looks the least Wolfish to me (other than my own, of course).

I haven’t forgotten Kath, though she has said far too little toDay for me to have any more idea about her than I did yesterDay.

I was beginning to have doubts about The Might, mainly for his case against Shasta on Day 1 and his vote for Eomer yesterDay. And he has seemed slightly jumpy toDay, what with accusing me of twisting things when I was merely pointing out that his Eomer vote could be characterised as a ‘throwaway’ vote. But I wonder whether, having been criticised for it, a WolfMight would vote Eomer again. And I am wary of the suspicion that suddenly seems to be building up around him. The ‘defence of Nerwen’ thing seems to be intriguing, though.

Which brings me to Nerwen. I think people are right to label her as nervous and jumpy. But I can understand her explanation, given that she has attracted so much suspicion so far. I thought her cautious in the early stages of Day 1, which was my reason for considering her then. But, otherwise, I can see little Wolfish about her. That said, her death, whether she is guilty or innocent, may well help explain a few things. It would not necessarily be a bad thing for her to be lynched toDay, but it will not be by my hand, as I think her more likely innocent than guilty.

Which brings me to my vote. Again, I may well be able to make it back later, but I cannot be certain. So I will take up Mac on that dare and put my money where my mouth is.

++Mac

[Macalaure]

I thought I would make it back earlier, but now I'm here.

It seems like we're going towards lynching either Nerwen or the Might. I still think Nerwen to be innocent. The killing of Shasta is in favour of it, her genuine confusion (sorry, but that's how much of it seems to me), but most of all it's simply a feeling I get when I read her posts.

The Might, I have to admit, has rather escaped my attention so far. I should have a close look at him now.

Originally Posted by Sauce

And yet you accuse me of having a weak case against you! What I don’t understand is that you major on Aganzir, yet you say nothing about Legate. His vote for Nogrod looks much more suspicious than hers to me, coming as it did after Nog‘s very weak reasoning against Rikae. I agree that there was most likely a Wolf among the Nog voters, but I reckon that it was either you or Legate. Perhaps both.

If Legate's vote was a wolf-on-wolf vote, it was a rather clumsy one, I think. Too clumsy for Nogrod and Legate - they would have done it better or not at all. I think Legate is innocent because he hasn't said anything that was really suspicious to me, unlike Aganzir.

(edit: crossed with Saucepan)

[Farael]

I am concerned at how Mac has cowed everyone to back off of him, and yet the concerns that were raised against him have not been resolved.

He just "threatened" everyone with "prove it or shut it" and well.. .it's hard to prove anything, all we have is circumstantial evidence. That's EXACTLY why a wolf would benefit so much from attacking another wolf in Day 1, even if one of the two was to be lynched.

Therefore, I'll take a chance and vote for Mac.... yes, yes I know, I'm flip-flopping and it'll cost me... Tomorrow (game-wise) I'll be accused of just about anything for a flip-flop.

But I am too willing to put my vote where my mouth is

++Macalaure

[Macalaure]

The Might is consistent about finding Nerwen innocent. It seems like, if Nerwen is a wolf, then he is, too. However, I don't find this consistency suspicious in itself, since I come to the same conclusion about Nerwen.

Then he misses his vote, which isn't good, but doesn't tell anything about his role. If we are to buy his explanation for it, it makes him more likely innocent, because it's less probable that he got confused over the deadlines with three people pming him over the day.

His vote for Eomer itself is not so suspicious. It came relatively early, so it's not as much of a throwaway as Aganzir's. However, the reasoning behind it is bad, I think, or at least he doesn't explain it properly. The way he does explain it, it comes purely from the way Eomer attacked Nerwen. I see why he wants to defend her, but he's taking it too far. He's also focussing too much on things surrounding Nerwen, which is strange - and not helpful at all.

Today, with him and Nerwen being in the spotlight a lot, he still refrains from reconsidering her innocence. If he was a wolf and she not, then he probably wouldn't have done that, since her lynching would be a good way to save himself.

The Might could be a wolf, but I don't really think so. However, if he is, then Nerwen is, too, in all probability. But I have very little faith that they are.

[Aganzir]

Mac, what do you think is a throw-away vote? A vote that doesn't contribute to lynching someone instead of someone other? I can hardly see my vote as a throw-away, as I voted for the person I suspected most instead of someone I didn't suspect at all.

And it's hard to believe you have forgotten this quickly how A Little Green incriminated morm in the last game by constantly defending him... And she was a first-timer, Might and Nerwen aren't.

Well, at least this vote isn't a throw-away, even on your criteria.

++ Macalaure

Dog for a walk now, be back soon.

[Isabellkya]

++ Nerwen

Her comment after deadline yesterDay, was obviously in regards to self preservation.. yet did it really need to be said in that manner?

Her being against Morm is a bit flimsy in my opinion. We are in a village and we need to find the wolves. If we don't verbally attack each other and cast suspicions and accusations around; then who will do it for us? How will we find the wolves; eenie meenie mynie moe?

She comments on him attacking others for disagreeing with him; yet when it comes to commenting on those who've voiced suspicion against her, she finds it odd and weird. Which I don't see how, I think those who've voiced suspicion have made their reasons clear.

Post #295:

In conclusion– I don't know if Morm's a wolf or just a serious hypocrite. I think he's a wolf.

Post #299 - She votes for morm.

Post #300 - Boro states he was off track with morm and that he is not a wolf.

Post #303 & 309 - Waits to hear what Boro says.

Post #316 - retracts vote on Morm.

I haven't much liked this whole 'convince me to vote how you want attitude'.. it reeks of innocent.. yet this is why I don't like it. Innocents aren't typically this obvious and blunt about how they can be manipulated by the wolves. In the span of one post, she had almost recanted her vote; it was only 16 more posts before she did.

I believe it has been said that a Nerwolf would not be so bold as to kill Shasta; yet do not forget that there were three wolves alive when Shasta died during NightOne.


I think I've said enough about Nerwen..

X'd with Mac and Aganzir.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

About half of the village found Valier's reasoning for her vote for me quite weak, as it was, and I'm curious to know how you can think it's a valid point against me. She's known to have hunches, true, but she can be wrong as well. You seem to be grasping at straws now.

Of course it was weak - it was nothing but a hunch. And it was one from somebody whose role nobody knew. If I had nothing to show but her hunch, I wouldn't suspect you. It's just one more thing and worth adding.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Mac, what do you think is a throw-away vote?

A vote that doesn't even have the chance to contribute to the lynching of the one who that has been voted for. It makes it obvious that the voter doesn't really care who dies.

So, are you telling me now that you found all - Valier, morm, and Nerwen - equally and perfectly innocent? There was none among them of whom you were more sure of than the other, that you would rather have kept alive than the other? I don't find this believable. Not at all. Your vote could have achieved something, but you preferred to throw it away instead. And that is telling.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

From his very first post, he suspects Nogrod. Nothing wrong with that, but the way he does it... It looks as if it had been decided beforehand. Mac looks like he's trying so hard to find something in Nog's posts to base suspicion on.

You seem to forget that Nogrod was a wolf. I was not trying hard to find something wolfish, I was only pointing out what was there. You're making it sound as if I made my points up!

And your "a plot that went bad"-theory is far-fetched.

And you accuse me of grasping at straws...

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

A vote that doesn't even have the chance to contribute to the lynching of the one who that has been voted for. It makes it obvious that the voter doesn't really care who dies.

Actually, that's an awful slip by you Macawolf... a throwaway vote is voting for someone solely 'cos that "someone" looks like is going to be lynched. Voting for your top suspect is never a throwaway vote, as it leaves evidence for the village

Would you have us all blindly follow the lead of a few early voters to define who gets killed every day? please even you know better.

[Farael]

Following up on my last post,

Voting for the top suspects just because they are top suspects IS a throwaway vote... it shows that you don't care who dies, as long as you make sure your vote is hiddein in a bandwagon.

[Kath]

Well ... I am back (just), and I find myself inclined to leave my vote as it is. I know that I will be preoccupied with Nerwen this entire game and here's a chance to know for sure. I hate that that's my strongest reason for leaving my vote as it is, but it's a strong one to me. I dislike getting bogged down on one person. At any rate, I did and do have some suspicion of her. I still don't understand why Boro and I were put together as wolvish chums, nor do I understand why my voting for her after that comment made me suspicious to her. In fact most of her attacks on me seemed to be solely as a result of my suspicion of her, and given that I know Nerwen is a smart player that seems an odd thing to do.

Anyway, I am rambling. I'll keep an eye on what's going on, but I think I'm going to leave this as is.

[Macalaure]

Farael (and Rikae, too), maybe we should debate what constitutes a throwaway vote and what not tomorrow, and not so close to the deadline, shall we?

[Macalaure]

I feared I would again get no support for lynching Aganzir. I'm happy that it seems not to be this way.

++Aganzir