COMPASS & LOTR comparison

[Sauron the White]

WCH - I do agree that far too often Gimli was used as the butt of a joke or for 6th grade level humor. We agree on that and I would hope that THE HOBBIT - which is filled with dwarves and their history - would refrain from that.

Bethberry - I think we talked about this very issue before and you previously related that sad experience. While I am not a big death penalty advocate, I could be convinced to use it on the spot for cretins who display rude and boorish behavior in public theaters. I sympathize with you there. However, my experience with the three LOTR films was almost the direct and complete opposite of yours. I saw the three films over a total of 30 times, and for opening days the atmosphere was almost reverential. Many people seemed to be waiting a lifetime for the films and acted as ifthey were in a church. Some of the best behaved crowds I have ever seen in my nearly six decades on the planet. As the weeks rolled on, the crowd was no better or no worse than any other film I have seen.

[Sir Kohran]

Compass will certainly make a profit; that's no longer a question. The debate now focuses on whether there will be sequels. I doubt this as, if I remember rightly, the second book is incredibly dull. Very little of interest really happens. Loads of characters and concepts are introduced but the story itself doesn't go very far. There's no epic battles or anything likely to hold the audience's interest. There will have to be some serious adapting to the story if they plan on making anything that will follow on from the Compass films and appeal to people.

As to why it didn't make money in America - I wouldn't put it all down to the religious boycott (though that hardly would have helped). Rather I'd say it was down to a general lack of interest, for whatever reasons.

The Hobbit is almost certain to make a profit. It's pretty much gauranteed, in the same way that Phantom Menace and Dead Man's Chest were both guaranteed to make money - their previous films were very popular with almost everyone. And they did - both made over nine hundred billion dollars. But at the same time they weren't very well received by critics and quite a lot of viewers and their sequels' profits reflect this - Attack of the Clones made almost three hundred million dollars less and At Worlds End, whilst a lot less of an extreme drop, made about one hundred million dollars less. So maybe there is a correlation of sorts between quality and profit.

[Lalaith]

THE HOBBIT - which is filled with dwarves and their history

Oh lord, I hadn't thought of that. PJ's interpretation of the dwarven community....three hours of belching, boasting and dumb-*** humour....*weeps*

the second book is incredibly dull

I thought it was the best of the trilogy. They've also kept the finale of Northern Lights for film two. (If it's made...)

[davem]

From the latest Variety:

"The Golden Compass" remains a paradoxical performer whose B.O. underlines the widespread appeal of fantasy fare outside the U.S. With fifth-frame foreign grosses coming in at $29 million, it did more than 10 times the pic's domestic take of $2.7 million over the frame. (U.S. cume is $65.5 million.)

Combined worldwide take for "Compass," handled internationally by a variety of distribs, is now at $298.5 million, with the foreign take contributing a stunning 78% of that figure. New Line sold off foreign rights to help finance the pic, which carries a reported $180 million pricetag.

Which puts it way into profit before the DVD release. Apparently NL are going to announce whether or not they are going ahead with a sequel later this month.

Oh, & its also up for the Oscar for Visual Effects....

Looks like a sequel isn't out of the question.

[Sauron the White]

New Line sold off foreign rights to help finance the pic, which carries a reported $180 million pricetag.

Am a bit confused at the arcane nature of film financing, distribution and revenues. If New Line did indeed sell off foreign rights a while ago and used that money to help pay the production bills, could someone please explain how a pretty good overseas box office helps them in the light of very poor US revenues which they still own?

Perhaps it would make them optimistic about a future film - at least overseas - but then that would be tempered with the woeful news about the US box office prospects as well.

[Mister Underhill]

Originally Posted by Sauron the White

Am a bit confused at the arcane nature of film financing, distribution and revenues. If New Line did indeed sell off foreign rights a while ago and used that money to help pay the production bills, could someone please explain how a pretty good overseas box office helps them in the light of very poor US revenues which they still own?

Yeah, I mentioned this upthread, too. Since they sold the foreign distribution, their take of the foreign windfall will be limited.

Film financing, distribution, and revenues are never cut-and-dried. It's not like they sold the foreign distribution for a flat fee and are not seeing any foreign money, for instance. But their profits will be capped and they almost certainly got the losing end of that gamble.

And you can't look at raw numbers, as some have, and simply declare profit. "The film cost $180M and they've taken in almost $300M" just doesn't take into consideration all the complexities. Besides the sale of foreign distribution, there are marketing costs that run into the tens of millions, the box office is shared with theater chains (as mentioned above), and then there are "hidden" costs like gross profit participation -- I expect Nicole Kidman, at least, has gross points.

I still expect that New Line's profits, if any, will be fairly modest. Will that money, plus the attractive foreign prospects for a sequel, be enough to make them take that kind of risk again? Time will tell. New Line's resources are not unlimited, and they're about to sink $300-$400M into Hobbit movies.

If it were, say, Disney, I'd guess they'd probably risk a sequel, because they have the means to exploit the license six ways from Sunday -- theme park rides, animated tie-in series, etc. New Line, historically, hasn't been in the "tentpole" picture business outside of LotR. They usually have a slate that's heavy with low-risk $30-40M pictures like the Rush Hour franchise, Wedding Crashers, horror movies and the like.

I'd say the safe money is still on no sequel, but time will tell.

[Lalaith]

underlines the widespread appeal of fantasy fare outside the U.S.

...implying that the US has gone off fantasy as a whole?
Now that's got to be bad news for the Hobbit....alternatively, NL could be a bit cannier about foreign rights....

[davem]

Anyone know if they sold the Worldwide DVD rights? In theory they could make 4 or 5 (or more) times the theatrical profits via DVD sales. One assumes they haven't sold the foreign distribution rights to any sequels either.

Have to say that given the popularity of TGC worldwide, & the profit its made so far, that if NL can't find some way to produce, & make money on, sequels they must be run by people with the same IQ as those who watch their movies