Werewolf XLII: The meaning of life forever - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 01-23-2008, 02:21 PM

Always look at the bright side of life they say...

*tries*

Well, no kill then... so we're not worse off than we were before the Night...

*tries even harder*

We have better chances to hit a wolf when they form more than 1/3 of our numbers...

*fails*

Uh-oh.

I've been in tight situations with werewolves but this looks pretty nasty indeed. With five votes they can do basically anything they wish as they have the knowledge.

We should stay in one line and not waver to lynch one of them - as they can in practise counter-vote us if they wish - but then again if they get us to go band-waggoning a wrong person they can hide in as well.

And we can't afford too many wrong decisions. In the worst case two mislynches will be the end of this.

The specials should consider their way of playing accordingly as this is no normal Day1 but merely the possible second last Day.

Okay. I try to be more cheerful soon as I get down to looking at people and what happened in the trials.

Nogrod · 01-23-2008, 02:50 PM

I have a pretty strong opinion on three groups from the trials.

Valier
Meneltarmacil
Legate of Amon Lanc - lynched on Day0.1

Even if I didn't find Menel or Valier exactly innocentish I have reasons to believe that Legate was the wolf there which would then set Menel and Valier as innocents. I've argued this already on Day0.0 and during my trial so I'm not repeating it here at least for the time being.

Someone asked why Legate made all those postings about his innocense after he knew he was going to die, what was there to gain for him if he were a wolf? A lot indeed. If we had a strong opinion of his innocense we would be heavily on Menel and Valier toDay while indeed I think we should not as they are more probably innocents.

McCaber
Naria
Roa_Aoife - lynched on Day0.2

I'm still of the opinion that Roa was a gifted - and am afraid she was a seer (one of them?) as that might just be the only role important enough to make Roa try to play it more safely.

That would mean that either McCaber or Naria is a wolf. I guess one might find reasons to suspect either of them. I need to look that Day more closely later.

Nogrod
Thinlómien
The Might - lynched on Day0.4

I find it hard to believe that The Might would have committed a suicide if he were a wolf. Sure everything's possible but if (and when) I have to bet on it I'd say that he was no wolf. And as I know I'm no wolf either the equation becomes pretty simple: Lommy is a wolf.

Also Lommy's way of playing in the trial and the way she reacted to the Might's self-vote just look as wolfy as one can look.

So this leaves me with a preliminary stance that looks like follows:

innocents:
Menel
Valier

50-50 wolf:
McCaber
Naria

wolf:
Lommy

If you think there are problems with my points please come forwards. I'm just happy to change my suspicions if you show them to be incorrect or unfounded.

I'll be back after I do some rereading...

EDIT: X'd with Lommywolf

Thinlómien · 01-23-2008, 02:57 PM

Eh, nice Wolfgrod. Seems like we'll spend this Day arguing as well.

As if I didn't see it coming, though.

Let's not start our argument right now, though, since I'm going to sleep now. It might take me as much as 15 hours to get back online again.

Hope to see a flood of posts from everyone when I come back.

PS. I forgot to mark the x-post of my previous post. Not that I think it really matters...

Nogrod · 01-23-2008, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Let's not start our argument right now, though, since I'm going to sleep now.

I don't need to argue that case anymore with you as I know how things are. Sorry Lommy.

I may explain my reasons why I think also those who don't know it should see it but that's another matter.

But added to that your style toDay is somewhat false to be honest. You're kind of over-happy and nice, almost cooing. I myself dislike the arguments that go like "she's not playing like she usually does" when thrown around for lack of better things to say but somehow I sense nervousness you try to hide behind that babble. And then you lose your concepts like saying that you had forgotten to mark an x'posting while you didn't forget it...

But I'll take a break now and come back after a while.

Nogrod · 01-23-2008, 03:12 PM

C'mon people... This is no Day0.4!

Meneltarmacil · 01-23-2008, 04:07 PM

I can neither confirm nor deny that Legate was innocent, myself. I'm a bit wary of Valier for now, but I'll turn my attention to the Lommy-Nogrod thing at this point.

You say, Nogrod, that Lommy must be a Wolf since you clearly aren't one. Yet I'm afraid I cannot blindly trust you on that. What evidence do you have that could point toward your innocence?

Nogrod · 01-23-2008, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Menel

I'll turn my attention to the Lommy-Nogrod thing at this point.

Well do not. This was just what I feared that might happen because we have been the loudmouths this far.

But let me tell you why - I've been thinking for some time now whether I should say this and indeed decided to do it at some point but as I need to go to sleep now and others might think the same as you Menel; focusing on myself and Lommy for lynching then we'd really do bad toDay. We need to lynch someone else than myself or Lommy toDay!

Okay.

I'm a Guardian. I have a license to kill one wolf on my own.

I will take care of Lommy the next Night. With these numbers we need the advantage the extra kill gives us. It can give us one more Day indeed.*

Why should you believe me and not Lommy?

I'll deliver you the goods the next Night. If I were a wolf I couldn't do that and then you could lynch me toMorrow and get rid of one wolf thus gaining you an extra Day as well. So you lose nothing by believing me as there will be a dead wolf in any possible scenario you might come up with.

But getting an extra wolf-kill requires that we do not lynch Lommy but that you leave her to me (obviously you shouldn't lynch me either toDay...

).

That's why we need to get another wolf than Lommy toDay as our lynchee. So we need to concentrate on other people toDay. Understand?

Why I'm so ready to offer myself out in the open this soon? Looking at the situation we're in that's the only decent thing I can do as I have the means to actually ease our situation with gaining us an extra wolf-kill. And with Lommy I'm pretty sure. With someone else it might be riskier to try.

* With the worst scenario (we lynching innocents and wolves succesfully killing one innocent during Nights) we will be at 5-8 after this Day, 5-7 toMorrow morning, 5-6 after Day2 and after the wolf-kill during the Night 5-5 in the morning of Day3 and thence all dead. Following the worst scenario as well: if you let me handle Lommy the next Night it will be 5-4 in the morning of Day3 and we/you still have a chance to continue at least one Day... and if you think I lied to you? You lynch me on Day2 and you still have 5-4 on the morning of Day3.

EDIT: the last two ratios should obviously read 4-5 and not 5-4 to follow the logic of the earlier ratios... But anyway: giving me a shot with Lommy the innocents gain one more Day.

Nogrod · 01-23-2008, 05:32 PM

Okay, sorry to floodpost but I was writing this when Menel came forwards. And as I said we need other candidates so let's see if this helps anyone else but me to get a picture of the possibilities we face.

So continuing with the speculation...

If I'm right about Legate and Roa (or even if I have them the wrong way around) it would mean that there is one wolf and three innocents in the group of the dead:
Shasta
Gil
Groin
Greenie

To begin with I'd say that Shasta is/was innocent. That would leave Agan and The Ka as 50-50 chances of being wolves.

With Gil there's nothing. That leaves Sally and Kath as questionmarks entirely then on the grounds of the lynched giving us clues.

Groin might have been the wolf indeed as one looks at Lommywolf's posting:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm quite sure Groin was innocent and it was no good he was lynched. Let's just hope he wasn't a gifted. Zali still strikes me as very fishy and her somewhat nonsense-seeming analyses didn't help at all. Brinn improved her reasonableness from Day0, but I'm still quite undecided on which of them is the wolf.

So let's keep these two (Zali and Brinn) looking suspicious as they are both innocents? Check also the sentence I bolded... somehow this makes me feel very uneasy about this "analysis". Why did she say that as I don't think Groin looked especially gifted? So she thought pointing towards Zali and Brinn more pressingly ("we might have lost a gifted there!") would be nice as the wolf in that trio was killed already? So they are innocents then?

Grounded on the same reasoning I'd also look carefully about the option of Greenie having been a wolf:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think the wolf in the lot is Izzie - not because she's suspicious, but because both Rikae and Greenie seemed genuinely innocent to me both on Day0 and on their trial Day. Rikae makes points a wolf would probably not make and Greenie seemed totally different from her last game where she was a wolf, not nervous or willing to please or nonsensical at all.

But with this I'm more insecure than with the previous one as this might also be read as trying to help Rikae if she was a wolf. Or even implying Izzie is one indeed ("not because she's suspicious")... At the moment I'd think Greenie was more likely an innocent as the case with Groin being a wolf looks far more believable. So Rikae and Izzie a 50-50 case as well? Or then I'm wrong with Legate which sure is possible even if I don't believe it at least yet...

But that's still speculation as Lommy could well make her "analysis" pointing at some fellows as looking evil and trying to help others saying / implying they are goodies - and that will turn around after we learn she was a wolf and thus adds the question whether she had that possibility of an imminent death in view aleeady when she wrote these...). Sadly they can afford these kind of tactical manouvres now with five of them around.

Anyhow that was only something based on the deaths, logical outcomes based on other speculations and Lommy's analysis. We need to check the actual postings as well.

~*~

So my take on people at this point - without a closer look on the posts themselves (I'll be back tomorrow (RL) but will have a long day at work so I can take more time here only during the last three-four hours or so):

Wolf
Lommy (not to be lynched but killed on Night2 by me)

50-50 wolves (either one of each pair is a wolf)
Agan
The Ka

McCaber
Naria

Rikae?
Izzy?

33% wolves / 66% innocents
Sally
Kath

innocents?
Zali
Brinniel

Menel
Valier

There are a lots of questions here and these speculations surely stand on other speculations. The actual posts surely matter more but these kinds of "limiting-possibilities" should be looked after as well.

I'll be back much later - with a look at all those masses of posts you will produce while I'm away...

EDIT: X'd with Menel

01-23-2008, 02:21 PM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Always look at the bright side of life they say... tries Well, no kill then... so we're not worse off than we were before the Night... tries even harder We have better chances to hit a wolf when they form more than 1/3 of our numbers... fails Uh-oh. I've been in tight situations with werewolves but this looks pretty nasty indeed. With five votes they can do basically anything they wish as they have the knowledge. We should stay in one line and not waver to lynch one of them - as they can in practise counter-vote us if they wish - but then again if they get us to go band-waggoning a wrong person they can hide in as well. And we can't afford too many wrong decisions. In the worst case two mislynches will be the end of this. The specials should consider their way of playing accordingly as this is no normal Day1 but merely the possible second last Day. Okay. I try to be more cheerful soon as I get down to looking at people and what happened in the trials. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

01-23-2008, 02:50 PM	#2
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	I have a pretty strong opinion on three groups from the trials. Valier Meneltarmacil Legate of Amon Lanc - lynched on Day0.1 Even if I didn't find Menel or Valier exactly innocentish I have reasons to believe that Legate was the wolf there which would then set Menel and Valier as innocents. I've argued this already on Day0.0 and during my trial so I'm not repeating it here at least for the time being. Someone asked why Legate made all those postings about his innocense after he knew he was going to die, what was there to gain for him if he were a wolf? A lot indeed. If we had a strong opinion of his innocense we would be heavily on Menel and Valier toDay while indeed I think we should not as they are more probably innocents. McCaber Naria Roa_Aoife - lynched on Day0.2 I'm still of the opinion that Roa was a gifted - and am afraid she was a seer (one of them?) as that might just be the only role important enough to make Roa try to play it more safely. That would mean that either McCaber or Naria is a wolf. I guess one might find reasons to suspect either of them. I need to look that Day more closely later. Nogrod Thinlómien The Might - lynched on Day0.4 I find it hard to believe that The Might would have committed a suicide if he were a wolf. Sure everything's possible but if (and when) I have to bet on it I'd say that he was no wolf. And as I know I'm no wolf either the equation becomes pretty simple: Lommy is a wolf. Also Lommy's way of playing in the trial and the way she reacted to the Might's self-vote just look as wolfy as one can look. So this leaves me with a preliminary stance that looks like follows: innocents: Menel Valier 50-50 wolf: McCaber Naria wolf: Lommy If you think there are problems with my points please come forwards. I'm just happy to change my suspicions if you show them to be incorrect or unfounded. I'll be back after I do some rereading... EDIT: X'd with Lommywolf __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 01-23-2008 at 02:54 PM.

01-23-2008, 02:57 PM	#3
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Eh, nice Wolfgrod. Seems like we'll spend this Day arguing as well. As if I didn't see it coming, though. Let's not start our argument right now, though, since I'm going to sleep now. It might take me as much as 15 hours to get back online again. Hope to see a flood of posts from everyone when I come back. PS. I forgot to mark the x-post of my previous post. Not that I think it really matters... __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

01-23-2008, 03:12 PM	#5
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	C'mon people... This is no Day0.4! __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

01-23-2008, 04:07 PM	#6
Meneltarmacil Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid Posts: 2,254	I can neither confirm nor deny that Legate was innocent, myself. I'm a bit wary of Valier for now, but I'll turn my attention to the Lommy-Nogrod thing at this point. You say, Nogrod, that Lommy must be a Wolf since you clearly aren't one. Yet I'm afraid I cannot blindly trust you on that. What evidence do you have that could point toward your innocence? __________________ I ♣ baby seals.