Werewolf XLII: The meaning of life forever

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Let's not start our argument right now, though, since I'm going to sleep now.

I don't need to argue that case anymore with you as I know how things are. Sorry Lommy. I may explain my reasons why I think also those who don't know it should see it but that's another matter.

But added to that your style toDay is somewhat false to be honest. You're kind of over-happy and nice, almost cooing. I myself dislike the arguments that go like "she's not playing like she usually does" when thrown around for lack of better things to say but somehow I sense nervousness you try to hide behind that babble. And then you lose your concepts like saying that you had forgotten to mark an x'posting while you didn't forget it...

But I'll take a break now and come back after a while.

[Nogrod]

C'mon people... This is no Day0.4!

[Meneltarmacil]

I can neither confirm nor deny that Legate was innocent, myself. I'm a bit wary of Valier for now, but I'll turn my attention to the Lommy-Nogrod thing at this point.

You say, Nogrod, that Lommy must be a Wolf since you clearly aren't one. Yet I'm afraid I cannot blindly trust you on that. What evidence do you have that could point toward your innocence?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Menel

I'll turn my attention to the Lommy-Nogrod thing at this point.

Well do not. This was just what I feared that might happen because we have been the loudmouths this far.

But let me tell you why - I've been thinking for some time now whether I should say this and indeed decided to do it at some point but as I need to go to sleep now and others might think the same as you Menel; focusing on myself and Lommy for lynching then we'd really do bad toDay. We need to lynch someone else than myself or Lommy toDay!

Okay.

I'm a Guardian. I have a license to kill one wolf on my own.

I will take care of Lommy the next Night. With these numbers we need the advantage the extra kill gives us. It can give us one more Day indeed.*

Why should you believe me and not Lommy?

I'll deliver you the goods the next Night. If I were a wolf I couldn't do that and then you could lynch me toMorrow and get rid of one wolf thus gaining you an extra Day as well. So you lose nothing by believing me as there will be a dead wolf in any possible scenario you might come up with.

But getting an extra wolf-kill requires that we do not lynch Lommy but that you leave her to me (obviously you shouldn't lynch me either toDay... ).

That's why we need to get another wolf than Lommy toDay as our lynchee. So we need to concentrate on other people toDay. Understand?

Why I'm so ready to offer myself out in the open this soon? Looking at the situation we're in that's the only decent thing I can do as I have the means to actually ease our situation with gaining us an extra wolf-kill. And with Lommy I'm pretty sure. With someone else it might be riskier to try.


* With the worst scenario (we lynching innocents and wolves succesfully killing one innocent during Nights) we will be at 5-8 after this Day, 5-7 toMorrow morning, 5-6 after Day2 and after the wolf-kill during the Night 5-5 in the morning of Day3 and thence all dead. Following the worst scenario as well: if you let me handle Lommy the next Night it will be 5-4 in the morning of Day3 and we/you still have a chance to continue at least one Day... and if you think I lied to you? You lynch me on Day2 and you still have 5-4 on the morning of Day3.

EDIT: the last two ratios should obviously read 4-5 and not 5-4 to follow the logic of the earlier ratios... But anyway: giving me a shot with Lommy the innocents gain one more Day.

[Meneltarmacil]

Thank you, Nogrod. And I'm sorry about the focusing-on-you two thing; it's just that in discussing the Legate/Valier thing, I do have a reason to think that Legate was telling the truth, but going into it could have hurt me considerably and I couldn't be sure whether Legate was coming up with a bold lie.

That said, I think it may be time to reveal what's happening. I am the Protector, and as such I know that one of two things are going on:
-Legate was a lying Wolf, and Valier is innocent.
-Legate was telling the truth, and Valier is the Wolf.

This should at least help in narrowing down the possibilities for my Day's suspects. I don't know if lynching Valier is a good idea right now, but with her we will have a 50-50 chance of killing a Wolf.

And I think I'll be protecting you toNight, Nogrod, so you'll at least get the chance to survive for toMorrow.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

And I think I'll be protecting you toNight, Nogrod, so you'll at least get the chance to survive for toMorrow.

Thanks.

Although I'm not sure why you had to say that aloud. We might have just had a tiny chance the wolves would have tried to kill me the next Night while I was indeed protected and thus the Night would not have only brought us a dead wolf but also no dead innocents... well it was slight chance to be sure as I do believe that our wolves would take that into consideration. But a chance anyway.

But as we have started this kind of game let's continue it then. So please Menel think about your choice of protection still. There might be others you might wish to protect as well. Let's not keep it a sealed thing.

And if we have another protector as well then do choose someone else... Let's not waste two protections on me... or let's try to protect two totally other people so that either of you could help me over the next Night.

But let us quit this speculation now.

Let the wolves think about these choices!

EDIT: X'd with Brinn

[Nogrod]

*I was about to go to sleep...*

Originally Posted by Brinn

But here's my dilemma:

Doesn't that mean only the wolves and the Guardian will know the role of the victim? I don't know...maybe I'm interpreting this wrong.

My first reaction to that was "Where did that come from?" but after I checked the admin. thread I saw it standing there quite clearly... and I'm afraid you interpret it just correctly even if it sounds a counterintuitive rule. Hopefully Volo could clear that issue for us.

And I thought my plan would be foolproof...

With five wolves around steering the general opinion and in the worst case only two Days to play this was most unfortunate. Sorry I didn't realise that. My bad.


Oh my... just saw this...

Originally Posted by Brinn

Oh shoot, I just noticed this...

Okay, maybe my idea won't work after all...

Maybe I should concentrate on checking the rules instead of acting...

It's 2.20 AM here and I have an early morning call.


~*~

But whatever you do I will take Lommy with me if I die.

If you let me do it by Night there will be two deaths by the Night as I don't think the wolves would leave one Night without a kill just to frame me. If I was a wolf I couldn't twist the rules to gain the wolves two kills. But that requires you will not lynch Lommy or me toDay. That I still think is our best option.

If you lynch Lommy we get rid of one wolf even if that can't be shown 100% to anyone.

If you think lynching me is a good idea I will take a wolf with me anyhow.

Your choice and my bedtime.

EDIT: bolded my actual suggestion...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

C'mon people... This is no Day0.4!

Wait...it's not? Oh okay, I guess I better post then.

On a more serious note, I was expecting to see this duel between Lommy and Nogrod. Because I'm quite sure Might was innocent (why would a wolf commit suicide), therefore one of them has to be a wolf. But which one to believe?

I think it's more likely that Nogrod here is telling the truth since I've found Lommy to be more suspicious since Day 0.6...her reaction to Might's suicide seemed to come out of nervousness of being found out...and toDay suddenly she changes her mind and says she figures Might must be innocent after all. Very wolfy indeed.

But here's my dilemma:

Originally Posted by Volo

-Werewolves and the Guardian will be told of their victim's role if the attack is successful.

Doesn't that mean only the wolves and the Guardian will know the role of the victim? I don't know...maybe I'm interpreting this wrong.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But getting an extra wolf-kill requires that we do not lynch Lommy but that you leave her to me

The problem is if we don't know the roles of the Nightly victims, how are we supposed to know whether Lommy was a wolf or not once she was actually killed? For all we know, you could be the wolf, Nogrod. Then all you'd have to do is kill Lommy tomorrow Night and say that as a guardian you successfully attacked her. So, how are we to believe you for sure?

Since I think Lommy's pretty suspicious anyway, I think the best option is to lynch her toDay so we all know for sure whether she's a wolf or not. Then we'll know for sure if we can trust Nogrod. There's a protector out there somewhere who could protect him...and give him another chance to attack a wolf.

EDIT: X-ed with Menel and Nogrod

[Brinniel]

Oh shoot, I just noticed this...

Originally Posted by Volo

-During Stage2 the role of the lynched player will be revealed to a living player chosen by random.org.

Okay, maybe my idea won't work after all...

But how are we supposed to trust anyone who reveals a lynched player's role? For all we know, that random person could be a lying wolf..

On a similar note, how are we supposed to trust anyone who says they are a gifted? With five wolves and six gifteds, I have a feeling that a lot more people going to be revealing. At this point, it's hard to tell if anyone is lying about their role or not. We don't even know how many of which gifted there are...

[satansaloser2005]

Sally returned from her quest for food and as she neared the group of warriors heard snippets of arguments and proclamations of valor.
"I believe Noggie to be a hairy one!" cried Lommie, to which Noggie promptly retorted "Ah, but you are mistaken, my little wolfie one, for I am the guardian of whom you have all been told. Tonight perhaps you shall be re-united with your hairy little dead friends." Lommie and Noggie quickly ceased their arguing, as enel came forward saying that Legate's death was not in vain, for it seemed to seal the guilt of Val. He then whipped out a batch of herbs right as Sally walked into the group's midst and began to apply them to a cut on Sally's hand that she had somehow managed to sustain in her earlier battle. She wrenched away at first, suspecting some sort of treachery, but Menel kindly reached for her hand again and continued applying his ointments, assuring everyone that he was one of the Protectors of the warriors. Sally was no doubt in awe of what she had just heard from the group and, once Menel finished bandaging her hand, turned away from the group and walked off into a corner to think, ponder, and speak to her dainty duck, who had accompanied her earlier in the day and was in great need of rest. "I can barely believe my ears," Sally thought to herself. "So much revealed in so little time. Emily, I think we must retire and mull over this strange business of outspoken gifteds and brazen wolves. Besides, I must return my utensils and saucepan to my chambers." The little duck looked up at her mistress and, being clueless herself at the moment, could only reply with a confused and exhausted "Honk."



Okay, so I am going to be late for church, but I decided I'd have a little fun before I left. I'll be back later for some posts that exercise my reason rather than my imagination.

[Nogrod]

Okay, sorry to floodpost but I was writing this when Menel came forwards. And as I said we need other candidates so let's see if this helps anyone else but me to get a picture of the possibilities we face.

So continuing with the speculation...

If I'm right about Legate and Roa (or even if I have them the wrong way around) it would mean that there is one wolf and three innocents in the group of the dead:
Shasta
Gil
Groin
Greenie

To begin with I'd say that Shasta is/was innocent. That would leave Agan and The Ka as 50-50 chances of being wolves.

With Gil there's nothing. That leaves Sally and Kath as questionmarks entirely then on the grounds of the lynched giving us clues.

Groin might have been the wolf indeed as one looks at Lommywolf's posting:

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm quite sure Groin was innocent and it was no good he was lynched. Let's just hope he wasn't a gifted. Zali still strikes me as very fishy and her somewhat nonsense-seeming analyses didn't help at all. Brinn improved her reasonableness from Day0, but I'm still quite undecided on which of them is the wolf.

So let's keep these two (Zali and Brinn) looking suspicious as they are both innocents? Check also the sentence I bolded... somehow this makes me feel very uneasy about this "analysis". Why did she say that as I don't think Groin looked especially gifted? So she thought pointing towards Zali and Brinn more pressingly ("we might have lost a gifted there!") would be nice as the wolf in that trio was killed already? So they are innocents then?

Grounded on the same reasoning I'd also look carefully about the option of Greenie having been a wolf:

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think the wolf in the lot is Izzie - not because she's suspicious, but because both Rikae and Greenie seemed genuinely innocent to me both on Day0 and on their trial Day. Rikae makes points a wolf would probably not make and Greenie seemed totally different from her last game where she was a wolf, not nervous or willing to please or nonsensical at all.

But with this I'm more insecure than with the previous one as this might also be read as trying to help Rikae if she was a wolf. Or even implying Izzie is one indeed ("not because she's suspicious")... At the moment I'd think Greenie was more likely an innocent as the case with Groin being a wolf looks far more believable. So Rikae and Izzie a 50-50 case as well? Or then I'm wrong with Legate which sure is possible even if I don't believe it at least yet...

But that's still speculation as Lommy could well make her "analysis" pointing at some fellows as looking evil and trying to help others saying / implying they are goodies - and that will turn around after we learn she was a wolf and thus adds the question whether she had that possibility of an imminent death in view aleeady when she wrote these...). Sadly they can afford these kind of tactical manouvres now with five of them around.

Anyhow that was only something based on the deaths, logical outcomes based on other speculations and Lommy's analysis. We need to check the actual postings as well.


~*~

So my take on people at this point - without a closer look on the posts themselves (I'll be back tomorrow (RL) but will have a long day at work so I can take more time here only during the last three-four hours or so):

Wolf
Lommy (not to be lynched but killed on Night2 by me)

50-50 wolves (either one of each pair is a wolf)
Agan
The Ka

McCaber
Naria

Rikae?
Izzy?

33% wolves / 66% innocents
Sally
Kath

innocents?
Zali
Brinniel

Menel
Valier

There are a lots of questions here and these speculations surely stand on other speculations. The actual posts surely matter more but these kinds of "limiting-possibilities" should be looked after as well.

I'll be back much later - with a look at all those masses of posts you will produce while I'm away...

EDIT: X'd with Menel