Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Volo]

Nerwen, Day2

Rikae is the first to mention Nerwen (except for Ka, but Ka's post was irrelevent). She finds Nerwen less and less sincere.

Mac finds her Innocent enough, although less so after Volo's #206.

Lommy thinks of Nerwen as the only Innocentish person.

Lily finds Nerwen and Ka Innocent.

Volo suspects Nerwen, reasons.

Durelin finds Nerwen's vote for Volo too easy, as Menel's vote for McCaber.

Nogrod: "I never seem to be able to suspect her but after Volo's point about her over-carefulness I'd say she needs to be looked at."


Conclusion: Lommy and Lily find her Innocent. Rikae continues suspecting her. Durelin is wary. Volo suspects, Nogrod and Mac become wary.
I'm trying to find out Nerwen's possible contacts to others and if she is being framed. I can't say that I'm making much progress - I said summaries aren't too useful .
Lommy and Lily look most suspicious out of these.

On to Day3 - the whole picture might show something.


EDIT: Xd with Nogrod

[Mithalwen]

In case I can't get back (I may be able to but the library slinging me off in a few minutes) I am going to vote then explain based on my rereading of the first days and hoping Rikae's instincts are right.

++ Macalaure

sorry son.....

[Mithalwen]

Reasons in brief:

Nerwen pointed out that gifteds can be useful. While I know it should make the ordos work I wonder if there was an element of gloating on page one. Nogrod and Mac seemed particularly happy about it . Both would be likely early dream choices had we a seer.

Mac raised suspicion of Nog after he had posted once. Not a bad wolf trick since it is seldom impossible to make Nogrod look suspicious. tbc if possible

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Reasons in brief:

Nerwen pointed out that gifteds can be useful. While I know it should make the ordos work I wonder if there was an element of gloating on page one. Nogrod and Mac seemed particularly happy about it . Both would be likely early dream choices had we a seer.

Mac raised suspicion of Nog after he had posted once. Not a bad wolf trick since it is seldom impossible to make Nogrod look suspicious. tbc if possible

Quite interesting. I'll leave this for tomorrow - not enough time for me to see to it toDay.

[Nerwen]

Little question here, Volo. You find me suspicious for being careful– but Durelin innocent for the same reason? Huh?

Volo suspected me after I voted him yesterDay. Then toDay, after I said I was less sure he was gulity, and after I mildly defended Mac, he backed off.

Then just recently he again finds me wolfish– after I voiced suspicions of Mac and Durelin.

Is a Durelin-Volo-Mac trio possible? (Although that lets out Nogrod and Menel, and I feel one or both of them may have been trying to frame me toDay.)

[Volo]

Day3

Durlin finds Nerwen's and Lommy's votes too easy.

Nogrod analyses her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So looking at Nerwen kind of makes me uneasy. She's too careful to my taste and trailing the suspicions others have made as I know she can make cases herself. She has talked about busy scheduals and I'm quite ready to believe in that sort of thing but somehow she looks a bit too careful.

If that's enough to lynch her...?

Well she at least moves up a noch upwards on my suspicion-list...

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

I don't quite understand this, I'll (finally) go through Menel after I've had dinner.

Volo suspects her and makes a big deal with going through this.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Nerwen indeed is a wolf her earlier declaration of Mac's innocence (alongside with Rikae and Lommy) would be wise tactic (at least if Rikae and Lommy actually are innocents) and her latest very easy "reconsideration" of his innocence would be a forced reaction as she clearly sees she has no believable way to protect her mate any more. All this surely presupposes Mac's guilt.

Links Nerwen's possible guilt with Mac's. You know, I'm beginning to suspect Nogrod a bit, he has been hiding a lot of his thoughts it seems and agreeing with people only after they have posted first. If Mac is lynched and is Innocent, I would make a connection between Nerwen and Nogrod.


Final conclution after dinner, before Menel.


EDIT: Xd with Mith.

[Macalaure]

Ironically, the fact that Nerwen seems to find no fault with Lommy at all makes me feel better about her. Any wolf would have sown at least some suspicion into it.

Originally Posted by Volo

Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Summaries are an utter waste of time to do or read - as long as they don't contain analysis. I've come to think that analyses tell you very little about the analysed person, but a lot about the analyser him/herself. It's not easy to fake an entire analysis without letting your fangs shine through. I'm eagerly awaiting Lommy's analysis of me for that reason.

It's good to see some people suspect Durelin. And at least Volo has an open eye for Lommy and Lily. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see why everybody else is so quick to say Lommy is just Lommy. Apart from other suspicious things she did, she's been telling people she's playing the way she always does at least five times or so! A wolf wouldn't do that, you say? Please tell me why an ordo would! Once or twice I wouldn't call suspicious, but that often? Come on.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I know this is a bad argument gamewise but as I'm still thinking Mac as one of my top suspects to be one of the wolves the fact that Rikae - whom I feel to be more innocentish than wolfy - goes for him that determinedly with her guts and feelings kind of assures me about it. There is something like a very real sense in which one could say those two should be able to feel or see when the other is bluffing more than with some of us others - like how I feel Lommy to be quite innocentish now as she's my daughter and I see her acting just soo Lommyishly...

I don't mean to be rude, but I fear Rikae thinks higher of her ability to read me than is warranted. I agree that her behaviour feels innocent, but I'm not entirely certain. She fooled me before. Nogrod, I hope this is not too personal, but are sure you're not overestimating your ability to read Lommy, too?

Btw, I think it's unwise of you to let Durelin and Lily drop off your radar.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean it just doesn't make sense if there isn't at least one wolf in the "Gwathwagon" and "No-Boro"-lynch.

I heard my father tell a tale of the time when he was insignificantly younger than I am now. It taught me never to underestimate the confusability of ordos.

I'm sorry, but I have to say that, now looking at Mith's reasons for her vote, I think I haven't received so many bad-reasoned votes in over 15 villages than in this one here.

[Macalaure]

Damn.... Lommy's last post actually sounds convincingly innocent. I hope her analysis of me will be really ugly and contrived, otherwise I might have to humble myself and take my suspicion back. I had a feeling it might be a bad idea to vote you so early. Why did you dare me to act on my suspicion just before?

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm sometimes concerned on how stupid you must think I am....

I'm very sorry if I appear like I do that, because I honestly don't. If I would've thought that plan to be a stupid one, I wouldn't have suspected you to have planned it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I had a feeling it might be a bad idea to vote you so early.

Well, then, why did you do it?

I don't know what to think now. After your last couple of posts you're starting to look less guilty... but I really don't think Lommy's a wolf.

[Rikae]

Mac and Durelin analysis (My RL fiance and in-game spouse. Traitors...)


---- Day 1 ----
Durelin's post #37:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Just seems Nogrod and Boro and Mac and...who else in this game likes all that analyizing stuff?...haven't gotten quite warmed up yet for anything too lengthy, anyway,

Macalaure did rather jump on her, but he's just as young and hasty.

Okay, so she mentions Mac in connection with two other people, grouping them together but not in an accusatory context, then does one of these “accuse/absolve” things with Mac. So far, so... bad.

-- no mention of each other for a while, until Durelin's post #82:

I agree Gwathagor and Mac have been a little...defensive? It's really okay, Mac, I was just looking for something to say.

Then she says that Rikae, Menel and Sally worry her the most.

This is interesting, because although she is agreeing with a suspicion of Mac, she lumps him together with Gwath (rather dismissive – she isn't focusing attention on either) and then ignores him. It could definitely be a wolf acknowledging, but subtly downgrading, suspicions towards a packmate.

Mac in post 104:

Rikae looks innocentish. So do Lily and Durelin.

Whoa... alarm bells. Very dismissive, off hand... and could definitely be a case of hiding a fellow wolf in a group. He doesn't even bother to say “Rikae, Lily and Durelin look innocent” -- he singles me out, then tacks them on, making them seem even less noticable. I don't like it.

Dury's post 113:

Mac's last post seems sensible - a little hesitant, but we all are on Day 1

That could come from the textbook on “How to mention your packmates”

Dury's post 133, after voting for McCaber:

I do want to know what's up with Macalaure and Boro, though. As Lommy just pointed out about Mac's last post, both of them seem to be posting about themselves a lot

Again the combo rather than direct focus on Mac. In fact, it could almost be seen as a warning “hey! Mac! What are you thinking? You're talking about yourself too much!”

----- Day 2 -----


Mac's post 152:

I feel good / a little better about the people who have suspected Sally yesterDay (Nogrod, Durelin, Rikae), because to them she could have served as a future lynch candidate.

Looks innocent enough, but now I have to wonder if this came up in the nightly discussion – Durelin pointing out that Sally might make a good lynch candidate, before the pack eventually decided to kill her. Still, it could just as well be solely the product of Mac's own reasoning. At any rate, he lets Dury off the hook.

Mac's post 165:

Durelin and Nogrod start the counter-waggon, which is innocent-looking.

Durelin's post 176:

Mac also bothers me. He could have just voted for Lommy if he really wanted to make a statement, instead of just off-handedly wishing she was a lynch-candidate. But that would stand out more.

(Nothing I can see in the above two posts either supports or works against the possibility of them being wolves together)

Mac's post 183:

Of Durelin I'm not sure.

This shift comes after Durelin has said Mac “bothers” her, and Rikae and Lommy have voiced some suspicion of Durelin. Not sure what to make of that.

Durelin's post 213:

Hmm...Mac is still posting defenses of himself and Boro is convinced the wolves are setting him up, messing with his mind. Yes, both have gotten quite a bit of attention, but they seem to be harping on it a bit...but I don't know if that's particularly wolfish or not. Overly defensive? Maybe. Trying too much to look like they're shrugging it off? Maybe.

Wishy-washy and I could see it coming from a wolf...

Originally Posted by Durelin

He is a little defensive, but not wanting to die isn't necessarily a sinister desire. And he's not he only one into himself.

Now, this is kind of fishy (mostly because an ordo really shouldn't be too worried about dying)
She also says Mac gives her a creepy feeling, but also says the same thing about Nogrod, Rikae, and Lommy.
Dury's post 214:

Ah, I just realized - my "similar bad feelings about Mac" statement means that I have similar bad feelings about Mac as A Little Green does, not about Little Green...make sense? Maybe? Oh well.

I wonder whether a wolf would draw further attention to her companion with this correction. Maybe she would if she already decided he was doomed, and wanted to be sure her suspicions of him were clearly on the record, though. I don't know.

Mac's post 220:

This leaves Durelin (who I have no idea about), Boro, Menel and Lommy.

Like in 183, he seems to be singling Durelin out for a special level of confusing-ness. This is odd, considering he called her innocentish at the beginning of the day and gave no reason for the change... it looks overly cautious, but Mac should know better as wolf.

Durelin's post 226:

++Macalaure

Of the random voters for Gwathagor he worries me the most. Of course I don't feel good voting for the same person as Boro, but I can't say I trust any of you sneaky lot, so what's the use spending another 40ish minutes on this...

Odd... don't know what else to say about it. It seems as if she's saying “don't take this too seriously”... if they were wolves together, at this point, it would be hard to tell whether Mac were really in danger of lynching or not... it would be a bold move.


--- Day 3 ---


Mac's post 276:

4. Durelin for meee!
Maybe others need to judge whether her reasoning was good or not. To me, it's bad, but I feel like I'm biased. The vote placement isn't worrying, I think.

Hmm, why not say it's bad and why it's bad?

Durelin's post 279:

First up, a random thought... I suggest that perhaps one of Rikae and Mac is a wolf. At different times they each seem to be trying to buddy-up to the other, which would obviously give the wolf of the pair a pretty strong ally. I hope that I'm not playing dirty here...I really don't mean to...it's just a game, but...these things do come into play. (I made Cailin a wolf and Eomer an innocent in the game I modded and apparently Eomer had promised that he was not to ever vote for her...not that something like that necessarily applies at all!)

---- Off topic comment: Mac and I have no such agreement (obviously). The only agreement we have with relation to WW is not to discuss it outside the game (although it's true neither of us would be eager to lynch the other on Day 1 or, as a wolf, kill the other on Night 1)---

At any rate, an interesting way of casting suspicion on Mac but also not (she doesn't suggest, after all, that we're wolves *together*)

Mac's post 282:

Lommy flipflops about him like only Lommy can. It doesn't leave me with a good feeling. Durelin is also overly indecisive on Boro.

Strange. First off, he seems to say Lommy is suspicious for Lommyish behavior... secondly, here's another one of those “oh, and Durelin too” things.

Mac's post 283:

Durelin goes into a similar direction. I haven't been buddying up to Rikae. I think she's innocent, but that's all I said. Rikae doesn't seem to be sure what to do with me, defending me at one time and accusing me at another. The latter makes no sense if she wanted to buddy up to me.

Self defense, no counterattack.

Originally Posted by Mac

You agree with Rikae and me about Lily, but you think our cases make no sense? Then I suspect you have a case of your own that makes more sense? Share it, please.

“Durelin, you made a mistake, now fix it before anybody else notices ”?

Durelin's post 299:

Mac - You caught me being sloppy twice. I didn't explain my whole 'buddying up' thing very well, and really that's a pretty bad name for it. Part of what I thought was so odd was how back and forth Rikae was about you, either defending you and jumping on Little Green's vote against you, or calling you a wolf. Huh, I guess looking back it was more Rikae who made you two seem odd in that way than you

“Ooops, thanks for pointing that out, comrade. I'll just take the opportunity to move suspicion away from you now...”?

Mac's post 305:

I might be becoming too confident in my suspicion, Durelin, but your explanations don't sound too convincing. You say Lily is skating by neatly, which is very vague. Her placement should be considered but shouldn't make her a top suspect suddenly? Now really, what does that mean? You have somebody skating by, then you find something that you admit is suspicious, and you say it isn't that bad? That's an accusation and a defense within only one half of a sentence. By the way, it's the reasoning of her votes that makes her suspicious to me, not the placement. My apologies if you're innocent and honest about this, but you're also all of a sudden being suspiciously nice to me in your last post.

Actually, the above looks sincere and innocentish to me. The last sentence is slightly eyebrow-raising, though...


Mac's post 312:

However, I'm sure nearly beyond doubt that Lommy, Durelin, and Lily are our wolves. This makes me less afraid of being lynched myself, because in that case you will have the benefit of knowing this opinion is honest.

This also looks fairly honest, which raises my doubts about Mac being a wolf. However, if he is a wolf, putting a fellow wolf on his top suspects list at this point would be the thing to do, anyway.

EDIT: Quote tags! Where did they go?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't mean to be rude, but I fear Rikae thinks higher of her ability to read me than is warranted.

I suppose that could be. I'm anxious to test it and see whether it works this time or not, actually.
On the other hand, I hate to lynch you -- I wouldn't enjoy it even if I was 100% certain you were a wolf...

EDIT: X'd with Volo, Lommy & Nerwen. What the....?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I almost regret voting Mac simply because he started being so nice...

I have a strong feeling many people are going to regret their votes of toDay soon - me not the least. Sorry about that. I never voted anybody like that, but you dared me to be sincere with my former suspicion of you...

I second Nerwen. Volo, what was that?

[Rikae]

Mac starts looking innocentish after I vote for him, and then Volo basically admits to being a wolf. Of course.