Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Durelin]

I am almost too confused and depressed to care, but not quite. I wish I was, and didn't have to waste my time on this...

YesterDay I was wolfish because I seemed to be wolfish with Mac, toDay...?

Besides tossing me in some lists and stuff, you didn't seem to think me too creepy (except for saying you felt like Lommy and I were "laughing behind our posts") until suddenly after Volo asked you for your opinion on me:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think she's creepy and wolfy and has been so for a while.
Actually, although I voted for Mac, I think lynching Durelin toDay could also be a good idea...

Your only *analysis* on me is placing me and Mac together as wolves. So I really don't know what you're referring back to on me.

As for my response to Mac's confession - in the heat of the moment I dared to feel smug, but no, nothing more. Saying something like "YAYz, we got him!" like Greenie or Nerwen...that is so far from...me. I'm sorry, I am not an energetic person. When I was a wolf, and faked a "yay!" after one of my fellows was lynched, everyone leapt on it so fast...and they were right to, because it was so obviously faked.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Anyway, this response also looks like it could come from someone who had prior knowledge... it's not merely an expression of surprise, but a thought-out response.

I started getting concerned about you and Mac after I tossed out that comment about you two buddying up to each other and stuff. I really felt bad about that one. It felt like playing dirty and trying to put you two at odds. I suffer from Catholic-guilt...if I feel guilty about something, that's going to show up in any 'reacting' I do. I guess now that will seem like I'm trying to get on your soft side or something, but I know you're smarter than to let that happen, so trust me, I wouldn't bother with that.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Why would an innocent have any reason to doubt or even discuss the possibility?

Because Mac was already being so bitter about people suspecting him? Because Volo and others have been known to "confess" they are a wolf out of frustration or...something? Part of the problem with this village I believe is that there has not been enough skepticism. People have assumed the innocence of people such as Lommy and Mith for practically the entire game. The trend of making promises and trusting that someone is not a wolf because "when they are a wolf they do this" has bothered me from the start and quite probably has helped put us in the situation we are in now.

Originally Posted by Rikae

know this won't probably be believed, but the fact is I could not, and would not, try to get him lynched if I were a wolf and he were innocent.

As you said yourself:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I don't think we're in a position to disregard anything at this point, Lommy.

Which I quite agree on.

I also would like to mention to everyone that those of us who are innocent need to not be spread out in our votes. We have all three wolves still alive, and since they only need an innocent lynched toDay to win, there is no reason for them to hesitate to all three vote for the same person. That means we need everyone to talk, too. I'll do my best to be around.

Edit: Crossed with Nerwen x2

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Durelin

YesterDay I was wolfish because I seemed to be wolfish with Mac, toDay...?

Nope. Yesterday you were wolfish, as was Mac, so I analyzed you both together to see if it were possible you both were.

Your only *analysis* on me is placing me and Mac together as wolves. So I really don't know what you're referring back to on me.

I mentioned suspecting you. Hang on, I'll go back and quote myself in a minute. You're right, though, I didn't analyze you. I didn't analyze anyone, actually... just interactions between various people.

As for my response to Mac's confession - in the heat of the moment I dared to feel smug, but no, nothing more. Saying something like "YAYz, we got him!" like Greenie or Nerwen...that is so far from...me. I'm sorry, I am not an energetic person. When I was a wolf, and faked a "yay!" after one of my fellows was lynched, everyone leapt on it so fast...and they were right to, because it was so obviously faked.

So, last time you did that as a wolf you were caught, but this time you knew better?

Oh, I've taken the liberty of translating your last paragraph:

Originally Posted by Durelin

I also would like to mention to everyone that those of us who are wolves need to not be spread out in our votes. We have all three wolves still alive, and since we only need an innocent lynched toDay to win, there is no reason for us to hesitate to all three vote for the same person. That means we need everyone to talk, too. I'll do my best to be around.

[Rikae]

My previous mentions of suspecting Durelin:

Day 1:

Originally Posted by Rikae

- Durelin says Macalaure "jumped on" Lommy. I suppose this can be explained by the fact that it's already been mentioned and, as she says, she didn't see Boro's post. As for what the mention is supposed to accomplish, saying Mac jumped on Lommy and then "absolving" him with in-character banter is kind of slippery. The reader might absorb the meme "Mac jumped on Lommy" while also assuming Durelin doesn't think this is important.

Originally Posted by Rikae

- Boro notices Sally and Durelin's mistake (?) and suggests both are wolves. I suppose that is possible. It's also possible that Durelin is, and trying to help along the beginnings of a bandwagon;it's possible just Sally is, and Durelin is a misguided ordo.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Wolfish Irresponsibility without Wolfish Defensiveness:

Sally

Durelin

Lommy
Menel

Day 2:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Durelin's certainty of Gwath's innocence seems possibly too certain.

Originally Posted by Rikae

If yesterday's voting shook out a few wolves from their hiding places, I think there is a good chance they'll be found among some combination of Boro, Mith, Greenie, or possibly Nogrod or Durelin.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At this point, my top suspects (in order of wolfyness) are:

Boro

Greenie
Nogrod
Durelin

Day 3:

Originally Posted by Rikae

At any rate, if I were to listen to the nagging "gut feelings" Ive been having, I would say that I have an inexplicable sense that Lommy and Durelin are somehow laughing behind their posts

In reply to Volo:

Originally Posted by Rikae

That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think she's creepy and wolfy and has been so for a while.

Actually, although I voted for Mac, I think lynching Durelin toDay could also be a good idea... although we'd probably learn more by lynching Mac.

I'm not sure about the likelyhood of them being wolves together, though. I'll have to go back and look at their interactions more closely...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Just want to say this in case I don't survive --

take a good look at Dury tomorrow, folks.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Volo has a way of wording things oddly, after all, and could have been speaking from the perspective of the rest of the village. Still, if Durelin's a wolf...

That said, I just realized I posted saying "like I said", when actually the person I said it to was Mac, on the phone, after his death.

At any rate, I'm going to go through and analyze everybody. I don't want to make a rash decision, especially with the whole game riding on toDay's vote. Besides, I have an essay due tomorrow and I want to avoid working on it.

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, at the moment I'm inclined to trust Rikae on this. Except I don't think Durelin is quite as likely to be a wolf as Volo is. There are just too many things about him that don't add up.

Still, a Durelin-Volo connection could well be what we're facing here. I've gone back and read her posts, and while she tosses a bit of suspicion at him, it tends to be the kind of "he's not acting right, but I'll let it go for now" sort. The same sort that one wolf would use on another that's slipping up.

[Nerwen]

Okay, now I'm starting to worry about Rikae after all– she seems to be pushing a bit too hard for Durelin, without giving much reason. I mainly think Durelin's guilty by association with Volo– whom I am nearly certain is a wolf– although there is that general "creepiness" that made me look at her in the first place...

If we were not in such fix, I'd say we could just as well lynch either of them, and that way we'd know what the other was. As it is I'd much rather go for Volo.

EDIT: X'd with Rikae, Menel.

[Nerwen]

Rikae, after seeing your last post I take back what I said about you not giving reasons. I still think Volo is the more likely of the two to be a wolf.

[Nerwen]

I'll tell you what, though– Durelin, whatever she is, does have a point with this:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Part of the problem with this village I believe is that there has not been enough skepticism. People have assumed the innocence of people such as Lommy and Mith for practically the entire game. The trend of making promises and trusting that someone is not a wolf because "when they are a wolf they do this" has bothered me from the start and quite probably has helped put us in the situation we are in now.

I have been guilty of this myself... and I think I need to look at Lommy again, with a more critical eye.

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I still think Volo is the more likely of the two to be a wolf.

I agree. Durelin is a strong possibility as well, but there's a much stronger case to be made for Volo.

[Nerwen]

As I said before, the case for Volo's innocence seems to consist entirely of saying "no wolf would act that wolfishly". So– what innocent would act that wolfishly?*

Similar is the "If I were a wolf I'd do such and such" argument which has bedevilled this game. Yes, it looks sweetly naive, and much too blatant to be something a wolf would say... but I'm starting to think part of the wolves' strategy has been to count on us all thinking we know what wolves would and wouldn't say.


*Apart from Sally, of course.

[Nerwen]

I have to go out now, so I don't have time to look at Lommy in any detail, but has anyone else noticed how she comes in suspecting me toDay?

Why? She never did before– and she gives no reason toDay.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As I said before, the case for Volo's innocence seems to consist entirely of saying "no wolf would act that wolfishly". So– what innocent would act that wolfishly?*

That's simple -- an innocent who is Volo. I have seen him act this crazy and more so while innocent.
I intend to have a look at him, but if we lynch Volo simply because he is erratic and tricksy, we're lynching him because he's Volo. At this point, I think there is maybe a 50/50 chance he's a wolf, and I don't feel comfortable voting for him in that case.
But now, to analyze afresh...

[Rikae]

Nogrod -
Day 1
12 -He started off in his first post with nonsense and a rather optimistic, but obvious, assessment of the situation. Hey, I was looking forward to trying a no-gifted game too... I understand that.
28 – Introduces lynch-the-quiets plan. He seems to be talking about general principles to excess. He says THE Ka and Volo give him “bad vibes”, but then relativizes that. He also sets up the possibility that he will vote for a silent person. (Sure, that is something he brings up in every game, but you have to admit, this would be a really convenient setup for a wolf. )
Actually, one thing that has bothered me about Nogrod in this game is that he hasn't gone after me aggressively, as he almost always does. I find it easier to believe that he knew I was innocent all along, than that he suddenly became able to recognize my innocence! I feel a bit as though he's “buddying up” to me (to use a phrase that seems to be popular in this game.)
31 -Makes some points about Menel and Mac. Says he can't read Sally and Boro, and thinks Lommy's innocent but it may be harder to read those you know from RL (indeed..).
His points about Menel and Mac look reasonable to me.
76 -List of everyone's suspicions up to that point.
79 -Continues suspecting Menel. Seconds suspicions of Mac and Gwath. Has a bit too much of a go-with-the-flow feel, compared to the Nogrod I know.
81 – More suspicion of Menel, agrees with Lommy about Mac, considers it possible one or two of Sally-Dury-Gwath are wolves, but then says he'll probably vote for a “submarine”.
83 – Answers Volo's question, turns around and asks Volo why he thought it was important.
96 – Continues to make his case for lynching submarines, in reply to Greenie.
102 – Lists suspects. Top suspects Menel and Mac, “alarm bells ringing a bit louder” for Gwath. Uneasy about Nerwen, Volo, McCaber and THE Ka. Not wishing to bring up Boro, Rikae or Mith. Lommy seems innocent.
105- Vote count.
109 -Says Gwath might be a good candidate, because of his vote and lynching Gwath might shed light on Sally/Dury. Volo is strange. Repeats that he wouldn't like to lynch Mac.
(More buddying up, this time to Mac? I also think it's a bit odd the way he jumped on my Gwath/Sally/Dury thing as though it were a more solid link than it actually was. He seems a bit too quick to agree.)
114 -McCaber surely is a candidate – last minute doubts about Gwath.
124 -Mac's post makes him look more innocent... agreement/disagreement are not the marks of good/evil.
128 -Is it Gwath (too easy) or McCaber (a shot in the dark on a master deciever)?
134- Votes for McCaber.
138 -Look at Volo and McCaber toMorrow; lynching of Gwath possibly too neat.


Overall: Nogrod was definitely going along with others' suspicions more than usual, and there is much less of his typical thinking-in-circles, too. He seems to be buttering me, and later Mac, up (and possibly Lommy, too?), and backpedals on Gwath as soon as it becomes probable Gwath will be lynched.


Day 2
154 -Comments on grotesqueness of narration. Agrees with Lommy on Sally being killed because she left no tracks.
160 -Tally with minutes before the deadline the vote was cast.
163- The Gwath bandwagon a good place for a wolf to hide... far-fetched that many declared they didn't want to see Boro lynched... Volo's vote is fishy because he says he's “widening the vote scope”
166- Agrees with Mac's suspicion of Menel and McCaber. Backpedals a bit on Volo:

“It may be I kind of over-lived with the last minute bandwaggoning yesterDay and got a bit carried away looking Volo's vote as more malignant it actually was.”
172 -Looks at McCaber...could be a submarine-wolf wearing newbie mask.
194 - Looks at Volo. His vote was suspicious, he's creating the impression he's not too enthusiastic about playing, he acted defensive when suspected by Boro. Claims to agree with Lommy's concern that suspicion of McCaber is too unanimous, but then says he's not sure how unanimous it really is, and finds McCaber's assurances he'll post more later, but failure to do so, suspicious.
200 -Looks at people who said we shouldn't lynch Boro. Finds Mith, Lommy and Mac most suspicious with Volo trailing behind. Also finds McCaber suspicious for only looking at people who have already gotten votes.
205 – The Gwathwagon. Everybody who voted Gwath was voting safe. Finds everyone at least mildly suspicious. Now, consider that 4 of the seven (5, from my perspective) are known innocents...and another is Mith, who is either an innocent or playing very dirty. Also consider how scrupulously Nogrod avoided joining said wagon, although he helped it along dramatically with his “willl shed light on Sally/Dury” comment.
216 – Agrees with Lommy urging McCaber to write more.
222 – Tells me he didn't find me extremely suspicious (in his Gwathwagon post). Too friendly...
224 – Vote tally
235 - Nerwen needs to be looked at after Volo's point on her over-carefulness, Rikae a bit touchy but otherwise good and sensible, Durelin – no idea, torn about Mith (remember Rikae last time), Mac feels better all the time but Nog's uneasy about what he's capable of, Menel screams wolf (but more often than not ends up lynched as an innocent), not too easy with Volo but doesn't top his list, ready to lynch “timebomb” McCaber, THE Ka – no idea, Lommy looks innocent, Greenie's low-flying (and something else about her, but he doesn't know what) bothers him.
241 -Vote tally
245 – Could vote for McCaber, Greenie's vote looks bad, could see Menel but afraid it would go wrong, baffled by Volo.
248 – Let's not lynch Mac, he can be very helpful, if he's a wolf we'll catch him talking himself into a corner.
263 – “McCaber or Volo? I have no superior argument either way.”
265 – Votes for McCaber “the timebomb and the submarine”
270 – Thumbs up (to Mac for voting McCaber, I presume)

Overall: Although he makes sensible points now and then, a wolf-Nogrod is certainly skilled enough to do so. The way he seems to continue to try to win Mac's, Lommy's and my trust bothers me. Of course, he may just be weeding out the “submarines”, as he says, while keeping those around he enjoys playing against most... but then again, he might well have been doing the same by night! The generalized focus on the entire Gwathwagon, in retrospect, also looks rather suspect.

Day 3
284 -Wolves must feel comfortable, looking at kills – or creating that impression to move attention away from themselves... nightmare scenario: at least two of the loudmouthed are wolves keeping others of the same reputation alive to avoid drawing attention to themselves.
This would be a bold statement indeed for a wolf-Nogrod – and just the sort of bold statement a wolf-Nogrod would make, scarily enough.
286 – Promises to look at various people.
288 – Still bothered by the people who talked about wanting to “save Boro”. Mith, Lommy, Mac and Volo involved there. Crosses tables of those and the people in the Gwath-wagon.
290 – Analyzes Nerwen. Does not give his conclusions, and Menel then calls it a revealing analysis and adds his own suspicions of Nerwen! Sure, Nogrod shows Nerwen suspecting several known innocents, but since when is that wolfish, really? This raises more questions for me about Menel, actually. (Or could Menel and Nogrod be wolves together?)
296 – Nerwen is careful and suspects/votes people others have suspected. Moves a notch upwards on suspicion-list. Edit: sees latest posts and has to think again.
297 – Asks me why I'm so sure about Mac.
300 -Exhorts everyone to concentrate, agrees with me somewhat on Mac.
330 – Wolves can be right 100% if they wish (in response to Volo calling Dury innocentish), Mac one of his top suspects, inclined to trust Rikae's gut feelings on Mac... calls Lommy innocentish “as she's my daughter and I see her acting just sooo Lommyishly”, Nerwen wolfishly putting Mac alongside Rikae and Lommy, presupposing Mac's guilt and Lommy's and my innocence, still uneasy about Volo and Mith.
Now, it really looks to me as if he's trying the same thing with Lommy that I did to Mac in the last game. It's also interesting that he points out Nerwen might be doing what he could very well be doing himself if a wolf... plus, the fact that he builds an argument on mine and Lommy's innocence and Mac's wolvishness is a bit far-fetched, considering he's not supposed to know anyone's role.
393 – Votes for Macalaure, but not too happy about it, Nerwen's vote for Volo looks weird (assuming Mac is a wolf), Volo looks more weird than wolfish.
396 – If what Mac says is true, look at Rikae and Lommy.

Overall: Continues looking bad. May very well have had the “look at Rikae and Lommy” already planned for this Morning (although it can also be an honest reaction to Mac's innocence.) Doubts about Mac at the last minute (when he's already dead) – that never looks good.

Day 4

409 – We can't afford too many votes that miss their target, must reconsider everything, comments on narration. Hm, it would have been particularly insufferable, knowing he killed Greenie!
414 – Casts suspicion back on Lommy and Rikae over making the kill choices.
425 – Too much comradery between Rikae and Lommy. Criticizes Lommy for trusting Rikae too easily and vice versa, criticizes Lommy's bringing in RL arguments, says he didn't know Greenie wouldn't be around. Wolves might be quiet, lettling loud people kill each other. Lommy and Rikae could be wolves together. Lommy and Volo using presupposed “wolf logic” to cast suspicion in convenient directions. Volo and Menel acting like hasty wolves.
Of course, Lommy and I both agreed in suspecting him. Making us suspect each other instead would be ideal for a wolf. Still, an ordo feeling ganged-up on might react similarly.
426 – Asks Rikae for point behind classifications of reactions to Mac yesterDay.

Conclusions: Nogrod looks about 67% wolfish to me. He's being much friendlier and more agreeable than usual (well, he is Nogrod the agreeable, but still); he seems to have been trying to buddy up to Mac, Lommy and I until today, and not only do the kills fit his eternal “kill the innocents, keep the loudmouths around” crusade (maybe as a wolf, he's finally found the chance to put it into practice), he even suggests this is what the wolves are doing. He first encouraged the Gwath bandwagon, then made a show of opposing it and used it the next day to accuse several people, including four known innocents. On the other hand, his switch from arguing Nerwen's wolfishness based on Mac's to suspecting Lommy and I based on Mac's innocence looks innocentish, although it could be explained as preplanned as well.

EDIT: Wow, I think that was my longest post ever.

[Rikae]

I'm going to bed now, it's after midnight. I only got my paper about 1/3 finished (wonder why ) so I may not have much time to post here tomorrow.
At the very least, I'll give my opinions as things stand at the moment:
Nogrod - See above.
Nerwen - One I really should analyze before I come to any conclusions. She's cast a lot of really strangely-founded suspicions around, at any rate. She seems a bit too determined to lynch Volo.
Menel - He's also made odd accusations. He was quick to jump on Lommy for banter on Day 1, and quick to jump on Nogrod's analysis of Nerwen without apparent reason. If he's a wolf, I expect Nerwen isn't.
Durelin - Actually, in looking over her past posts, I find myself wondering whether I don't partly percieve her as wolfish because of her sarcasm, which is, if I recall rightly, normal. I still find her reaction to Mac's "confession" (as well as her Day 1 words about him "jumping" on Lommy) fishy.
Mith - I'm inclined to think that she's a more honest person than I am, and making the declaration of innocence she did, as a wolf, would be too low and dishonest a tactic even for me. If she does turn out a wolf, I'll never trust her again, but for now I think she's innocent. (By the way, for what it's worth, as God is my witness -- I am an ordo.)
Lommy -- Like I said, I got the feeling she was pushing Nogrod a bit too much toDay, and I didn't like the way she simultaneously told us not to consider it. Still, since Nogrod looks suspicious too... and partly because of his repeated declarations of Lommy's innocence... hm. I think at least one of the two is most likely a wolf, at any rate.
Volo -- Well, he's Volo. As I said, 50/50.

I don't know what to do -- I think everyone but Mith is suspicious, to some degree. Perhaps it would be useful to analyze who is, and is not, likely to be a wolf with who else, but I don't have the time, myself. I hope someone else does.

*sigh*

Does anyone think Nogrod and Menel might be wolves together?

[Rikae]

Just one more quick thing -- I find it a little odd how both Lommy and Nogrod are focusing so much on this "loud wolves" theory, and very, very little attention has been given to Menel, who has been quite strange, or Durelin, except by Mac and I.
It's also slightly creepy the way both Nerwen and Menel both say Durelin and Volo may be wolves together, but Volo is more likely one. Menel actually is following Nerwen here... Volo would be a very good scapegoat for the wolves to misdirect the necessary two innocent votes onto, if he's innocent. This also could be an attempt to shelter Durelin indirectly.
Durelin-Nogrod-Menel, perhaps?

EDIT: Bolding