Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Good morning all!

So, what did happen here:

Lhuna
- makes lists
- this way, some of her real thoughts or aims may remain hidden
- and so I can't say much about her right now.


Gwathy makes me feel a little uneasy by his post, but on the other hand...

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I like Lhuna's clear lists - those are very helpful, as long as she limits herself to facts and not value judgments (as if such a distinction exists!).

This is okay, as it occured to me too, that Lhuna's lists are very much indeed just statement of fact and not much own opinion, but the same as he says, nothing in just "statement of fact" and in everything there are some own thoughts projected, if even a little, and so even these "statements" may be twisted by Lhuna to fit her purposes. Or simply her own interpretation of things if she is innocent.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Legate, as always, is reasonable and impenetrable. I never know what to make of him, but I don't like his "honest gut feelings." It's too easy a basis for suspicion, and requires no actual evidence. However, his other posts don't depend on "honest gut feelings", so maybe he's alright. MAYBE. We'll see.

I would really like to see what looks reasonable about my yesterday's posts... are you trying to simply fit into the wolvish pattern and thus afraid of presenting your real opinion, Gwathagor-san?

But overall, it's not that bad with Gwath. He's in the yellow zone for me (that's next to the green zone, which is okay). Gwathwolf used to be worse as far as I could tell from an observer-point.

In short: As you may have noticed, those who stay in shadows and say nothing are likely not to be examined by me at all. What does that mean? That everyone should speak to the matter! (Yes, someone had to say it )

[Thinlómien]

What is wrong with this village?

Especially Gwath and Legate:

Originally Posted by Legate

This is okay, as it occured to me too, that Lhuna's lists are very much indeed just statement of fact and not much own opinion, but the same as he says, nothing in just "statement of fact" and in everything there are some own thoughts projected, if even a little, and so even these "statements" may be twisted by Lhuna to fit her purposes. Or simply her own interpretation of things if she is innocent.

What? So Lhuna's lists are "clear" and "helpful" and "statement of fact and not much own opinion" and she "limits herself to facts and not value judgements"? Am I missing the sarcasm or something? While I appreciate Lhuna's lists and find them amusing, I would never use those expressions to describe them. In my opinion, they are full of very subjective interpretation and more joking & bantering than clear and helpful statement of facts. There is nothing wrong with this kind of approach (meaning Lhuna's approach, of course), but there is something wrong with the fact that these two gentlemen interpret Lhuna's posts so very differently from how I do it. I mean, their view seems quite limited, if not even false.
Now, which one looks worse, Gwath or Leggie? I would say the latter, because he goes and agrees with such an absurd view. On the other hand, Gwath also called Legate reasonable, which I find quite suspicious like Legate himself apparently does. Okay, I must think about this, but I'm watching those two (like everybody else as well... ).

And Volo then? Self-vote for RL reasons? A bit boring but I don't think a wolf would do so. At least a wolf would be less inclined to do so. But, on the other hand, I know Volo is one of those few people who could probably do that as a wolf without blinking an eye. So actually I have no opinion about his allegiances. Well, he said he's going to be back on Day2, so no problem, but actually why did he vote himself instead of a) voting a random person, b) voting no one, or c) waking up/going to sleep half an hour earlier/later and reading the posts and voting someone based on some low-level reasoning, is a very interesting question, but sadly a domain on which you can only speculate for you have nothing to go on.

Oddwen's jumpiness and chattiness is slightly alarming.

And unlike so often in the past, there is no one (but myself) whom I find innocent-looking. I wonder if this is progress or decline...


edit: xed with Mith

[Nogrod]

This is getting interesting...

I agree with Lommy about Lhuna & the guys. Lhuna's list look more banterish than serious or sensical and thence Gwath's and Legate's praises of their factuality really raise eyebrows.

Of those I expressed a mild suspicion earlier I'd say Gwath's actions haven't exactly made him look better (he's too verbiose and "explanative") but Oddwen I feel a bit better about right now. I'm quite at loss with Lhuna although I'm inclined to think her more innocent than not.

Also I'm slightly worried about a bit too serious or defencive stance of Mith. It feels like she is thinking I have made an open suspicion on her and she needs to defend herself by sharing her motives whereas what I said about her clearly was only Day1 first loose points. It would fit the classical "wolf feels herself suspected more easily" -case.

Also I'm somewhat worried by Volo's self-vote and am inclined to make a different conclusion than Lommy did. Innocents may vote themselves that's true. But there should be a motive or reason for doing it fex. getting frustrated with the others suspecting you and trying to lynch you or/and trying to protect someone you think is a gifted from lynch or whatever. But it clearly can't be any of the above with Volo. It looks more like: "hey look at me everyone, I'm innocent". And I don't see why an innocent would try that - but I can see a host of reasons why a wolf might.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I'm slightly worried about a bit too serious or defencive stance of Mith. It feels like she is thinking I have made an open suspicion on her and she needs to defend herself by sharing her motives whereas what I said about her clearly was only Day1 first loose points. It would fit the classical "wolf feels herself suspected more easily" -case.

.

Nogrod you are either over analysing or a wolf making a case. You raised issues I answered them honestly and straight forwardly. As it happens it was all I had time for this morning. Since this worries you I shall ignore you henceforth .. and one thing I am not this game is serious.. It is Spring and I have recovered my joie de vivre. For those who find this unsettling no doubt the irritable Mith will return someday.

[Nerwen]

J'ai revise mon diagnostic: vous avez tout la maladie de la vache folle.

Yes, I'm back again... and, despite my profession, I still can't really make head nor tail of this.

All I can say is that I'm sure it's no accident that the silliness has gone on as long as it has. My studies in natural history tell me that the typical lycanthrope is prone to encourage such behaviour in others... often in a way that makes it very hard to tell who is doing the encouraging.

Some present thoughts:

Lhuna: Well, let’s put it this way– I get doubtful of people who list others as top suspects without giving reason. I get paranoid when one of those suspects is me. And those “lists” of hers sound more like filler to me– taking up space without really saying much Also, her Gwath vote is perhaps a little too easy...

However, I can’t say I like the look of Gwathagor, either– he just chimes in with other people– but then, as someone else noted, he always does. (Uh... which I guess means that now I’m chiming in...)

Legate: Has been gibbering. Very unusual behaviour for him. Mind you, he did (#16) say something I agree with somewhat, which is that the interactions between Nogrod and Mith seem not quite right in some way (though I wouldn’t have gone so far as to announce they were a pair of wolves, as he did). I think it quite possible one of them is a wolf, anyway.

Edit: X'd with Nogrod, Mith, Lommy.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However, I can’t say I like the look of Gwathagor, either– he just chimes in with other people– but then, as someone else noted, he always does. (Uh... which I guess means that now I’m chiming in...)

Excuse me? When did I do that? But at least you preemptively acknowledged that you also are "chiming in" with other people (in this case Nogrod). That's good. Acknowledging your own suspiciousness is always a good ploy for averting further suspicion. (Ha!)

Originally Posted by Aganzir

As far as I've seen, wolves actually make very little plans.

I don't even know what to make of this. It just seems so far out that I can't tell whether she really thinks it and is just kind of crazy, or whether she's trying to fool us.

X-ed with Kath

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I don't even know what to make of this. It just seems so far out that I can't tell whether she really thinks it and is just kind of crazy, or whether she's trying to fool us.

Which part you didn't understand? That single sentence or my point?

[Nogrod]

To sum up my views right now - and as I need to be making dinner for myself & Lommy soon it may take a while I'm back.

I find suspicious based on arguments:
Gwath
Lhuna
Volo

I have some concerns but probably not enough to vote toDay:
Oddwen
Mith
Legate

I feel more innocent than not:
Nerwen
Lommy
Kath!!!

I think more innocent than not:
Aganzir

I have no idea this far:
Sally
The Elf Warrior

Just a few points to explain...

Suspicious:
Gwath looks suspicious as himself but Lhuna and Volo look tied together - or should we say that if they both were wolves their actions would make even more sense.

Somewhat suspicious but not enough to vote:
Oddwen looks both playful and reserved at the same time. Her reactions to my test-suspicions were kind of tense in a way but at the same time joking. I'm not sure what to think of it. Somehow she doesn't sit right with me but I'm reluctant to turn that uncomfortableness into a vote as yet.

I share the suspicions on Legate but would not want to see him go this early in the game with this light reasons. They are too slight to make a vote. But he does make me feel uncomfortable.

And Mith then. I kind of trust her openness and realise I just wish to do that but somehow she's more explanative and defensive I'd presume an innocent Mith would be.

Feel good even if with reservations:
With Lommy I'm just perplexed. She looks and feels innocent but that's just the point with her! She just looks and feels too good - not regarding the pre-empting admission of flip-flopping which kind of bothers me still as being a bit too careful thing to do. But I find her more innocent than not by just a feeling.

With Nerwen it's easier as she doesn't send me any "bad vibes" - even if there's nothing to talk on behalf of her innocence either... although I do agree with most of her points in her last post and that might be a factor why I think she belongs to this category of "feels innocent more than not".

And Kath! I can't believe this! But yes I'm not suspecting her at the moment. Hear the soughing of the leaves of history! I still am afraid of her everytime I play in a game with her but somehow her approach feels more innocentish than not this time. What's happening?

I think more innocent than not:
Agan for her questioning of the reasons behind my suspicions and openly disagreeing them. A wolf would love to follow a trail of suspicion and not downplay it.


About Sally we will not hear toDay (and we shouldn't lynch her for that) but where's the Elf Warrior?

EDIT: X'd with a host of discussion...

[Nerwen]

I don't at all like voting this early, because it's still close to being random. However I have to, so–

++Lhunardawen.

Because she's one of the people I suspect(ish) who hasn't received a vote yet.

That's the best I can do now. I won't be around near the deadline, so good luck to you all (well, except the furry ones).

Au revoir.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

She's just too sneaky to be true.

Thank you.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh my, if anyone's behaving like a Cobbler here, then it's... everyone...

Yes. You are a cobbler, just like everyone else.
And I promise to lynch you first if you keep using Japanese words because they are ugly.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And where are the other French speakers?

Zut aleur! Les poissons!
(and that was the only thing I can say in French so no need to lynch me )

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But at least my conscience is clean.

That's what also Frollo said after killing an innocent woman in Disney's Hunchback of Notre Dame.

Ok.

I don't think Gwathy's first-days-are-rubbish attitude in his first post makes him suspicious, as he's always quite like that. My first post wasn't any more constructive than his, Oddwen's or Lhuna's, but why wasn't I suspected because of that then? Because I didn't say I hate day 1's? Why does saying that make one more suspicious, may I ask? Is it always a wolf desperately trying to get some content to his or her post? Or is suspecting someone because of that just the same as suspecting the silent ones on Day 1 - a principle?
But this doesn't actually matter since Gwathy, Oddwen and Lhuna are the wolves and I'm just the cobbler trying to defend them against the nasty Nogrod.

Originally Posted by Lommy

If so, it looks so pretty darn obvious and silly that he, Nog and Mith would probably not come up with such. Unless they want to double bluff.

Why?
As far as I've seen, wolves actually make very little plans. It's often just like "well let's try to be as normal as possible and behave depending on the situation". I've seen villagers come up with most ingenious suggestions about wolf plans while in reality the wolves try just to lie low and be like themselves. If the wolves make plans, I don't think they always realise how obvious it will look to the villagers whose noses are trained to smell the rat.
Therefore I wouldn't be as ready to rule out even the possibility of Nog-Leg-Mith trio planning things like that seriously.
Or then Nog and Mith were planning to behave like that towards each other and an innocent Legate just noticed it even before they had got into full speed.

My feelings right now:

Innocent
Mith because she looks honest and said she's an ordo.

Guilty
I'm a bit wary of Gwathagor because of his explanatory behaviour: "I never was one for the small talk; it always sounds unnatural coming from me." I think that kind of attitude was present also in his wolf-self. And he said Legate was reasonable, which looks like he was trying to gain a strong ally early.

Originally Posted by Gwathy

But don't give me reason to think otherwise.

Saying "don't give me a reason to think you're a wolf" always makes me think it's two fellow wolves talking who have decided to suspect each other a bit.
Legate who is deliberately behaving as oddly as possible so that he wouldn't be accidentally behaving oddly and then suspected because of it.
Lommy who is too happy and tra-la-ley.
Nogrod because he has Noggish reasons to suspect people and they never make sense to me.

Neither
Lhuna
Volo, who would have voted for himself, is he a wolf or not.
Nerwen
Oddwen
Kath
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior

edit: xed with Lhuna

[Lhunardawen]

I'm sorry, I can linger no more toDay.

++GWATHAGOR

because of my three highest suspects, he's the one I can defend from myself the least. I should give Nerwen more chance to speak, and Nogrod is always argumentative, although his arguments aren't always sound. But that's not to say I'm taking him off my list. It must be Gwath's disadvantage at this point that I've never played with him before, so I don't know if he's being his usual self, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

Good night, everyone.

[Thinlómien]

Well, quite soon after complaining about finding no one innocent, I see two posts that look very innocent to me. I'm inclined to think Mith and Agan innocent right now. Mith sounds genuine and well, yes, she said she's an ordo and I'm not sure if she'd be dishonest to claim it that way if she was a wolf.

Agan then, she seems quite innocent and in a different way than she usually does. (Usually when she seems innocent to me she's a wolf.) She's not as careful and as unsuspicious as she's as a wolf. Of course, she's a smart person and I would not put it past her to have changed her playing style since it's getting pretty obvious, in a way.

Lhuna, too, seems quite innocent, but not as much as those two. I'm well aware that she's a Queen of Deceit. *shrugs* At least I enjoy having her around since she contributes quite a lot.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Zut aleur! Les poissons!
(and that was the only thing I can say in French so no need to lynch me )

Yes, obviously we shouldn't lynch her as a French speaker since she obviouly can't even spell her sayings right.

Originally Posted by Agan

Because I didn't say I hate day 1's? Why does saying that make one more suspicious, may I ask? Is it always a wolf desperately trying to get some content to his or her post? Or is suspecting someone because of that just the same as suspecting the silent ones on Day 1 - a principle?

Well, I can only speak for myself, but I don't find declaring that particularily suspicious - only rather unconstructive and annoying.

Originally Posted by Agan

Why?
As far as I've seen, wolves actually make very little plans. It's often just like "well let's try to be as normal as possible and behave depending on the situation". I've seen villagers come up with most ingenious suggestions about wolf plans while in reality the wolves try just to lie low and be like themselves. If the wolves make plans, I don't think they always realise how obvious it will look to the villagers whose noses are trained to smell the rat.
Therefore I wouldn't be as ready to rule out even the possibility of Nog-Leg-Mith trio planning things like that seriously.

I don't get this logic. And I doubt you explaining it would help. Looks like a simple disagreement. I daresay players such as Nog, Mith and Legate would realise it looks quite silly and obvious. Hey, now that I'm writing this your logic starts to make sense. Maybe they indeed wouldn't. But I can't see why they actually would make such a scheme. It's a good question. So in conclusion it probably isn't a wolvish scheme. 99% of wolvish-scheme theories are wrong. But of course this doesn't exonarate any of them, or even the very wolf triangle they could be.

I have a bad feeling I'm pretty bad at phrasing my thoughts unconfusingly today...


edit: xed with Lhuna

[Kath]

Well! I am here at last. My turtles took even longer that I thought they would. I haven't had a chance to look through the thread yet but I will try to do so although given my day so far I might have to make a random vote for which I do apologise as I hate doing it. Still, better any vote than none. Hopefully though I will have time to make a proper one.

[Meneltarmacil]

As the day began, there was a major commotion.

Bungo, Volo's gorilla, truned up in the village square making a lot of noise and pointing off into the woods.

"What's he going on about?" Nerwen wondered. "Volo, can't you keep him under control?

"Volo?"

But Volo was nowhere to be seen that morning. The villagers followed Bungo to Volo's cabin in the forest. Inside, they found a number of bones scattered around the floor, but it was Legate who saw the most hideous part of it.

Above the fireplace, the wolves had mounted Volo's head amongst the explorer's other trophies.

Alive:
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Nogrod
Oddwen
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior
Thinlomien

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.
Volo (Ordinary Villager): Turned into a hunting trophy by Wolves on Night 3.

Day 3 has begun.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm, so Volo. Actually I'm a bit surprised, as I thought it will be Sally (because of her last vote which tied Gwath with Nog). But I am not happy with it nonetheless (well who would be), as Volo was among the ones I regarded more like innocent. Sufficient to say, had for example Nogrod been killed, I would have been maybe even happy Okay, sorry Nog, that wasn't nice, but sure my stance is understandable After yesterday, I need to re-think whether it's possible that Nog would be a wolf even when Gwath was. I think I'm going to spend some time looking at Gwath and his relations with other people. But not sure if I'll do it rightaway, as I have other work to do... but hopefully soon. And if not today evening, then in the morning, in about 11 hours. Till then, good luck all of you who are innocent!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Agan

I don't think Gwathy's first-days-are-rubbish attitude in his first post makes him suspicious, as he's always quite like that. My first post wasn't any more constructive than his, Oddwen's or Lhuna's, but why wasn't I suspected because of that then? Because I didn't say I hate day 1's? Why does saying that make one more suspicious, may I ask?

I think it's time to come open with this one. I thought of fishing some reactions from people and I needed a bait. So I came up with this "I hate Day1's" combined with non-informative or otherwise careful first posts - which I do not like anyway myself - to be my criteria for someone looking suspicious. So it was a means, not the end of it even if it's based on my actual preferences for play on Day1's.

Now I think I may share what came out of it.

I suggested that Gwath, Oddwen and Lhuna looked suspicious by my standard.

Gwath's reactions have indeed made me suspicious of him as it feels like he's a wolf trying to parry the suspicions.

Oddwen's reactions don't make me feel too happy about her either but there is something quite Oddwenish in them. Well the wolves would try to look as normal as possible so that is no argument but somehow I tend to think her more innocent than guilty this far.

Lhuna really creeps me out. She hasn't exactly "reacted" to my suspicions but has been posting innocentish stuff all Day. But then I found that she thought me one of her main candidates without stating any reason for it. Now is that an innocent retaliation-reaction or a lycanthropic effort of spreading suspicion for a possibly dangerous adversary?

Agan's questioning of the grounds for the suspicions & her opposition to Gwath's suspiciousness speak good of her as wolves would love to cling into any generally shared suspicion whenever there's one and Gwath has been mentioned as suspicious by a few already.

Both Lhuna and Legate seem to ride the tide in regards Gwath. Lhuna even voted him. So innocents sensing lycantrophy or wolves hiking a free ride?

...

Only after reading a few comments I realised Mith had actually said she's an ordo. Now all of us who have played with her know she doesn't like to lie whatever the case. It's part of her charming personality. But I'm also feeling a bit uneasy with a situation where someone will be automatically looked upon as an innocent just because she says she is. I mean a few of you have already kind of declared her innocent just because of that.

I will not probably vote for her toDay either as I feel it would be a greater risk than voting for someone else but I just felt a need to bring this thing forwards. For on the other hand her actions do not look too innocentish. Quite the contrary. And I've played with her a few times indeed. She's a bit too explanatory I'd say. But let's wait and see what she will have to say.

...

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Now, as for Volo's self-vote, I'm not sure if Menel has a provision for automatic lynchings for non-voters. But in any case, I strongly advise not to vote for Volo because of his RL constraints. We have greater need to lynch our strong suspects than people who can't participate properly.

My point against Volo was not that he has RL constraints but that he decided to make a self-vote which I find only screaming of "look at me, I'm innocent!" which I could understand from a wolf but not from an innocent in a situation of no pressure - or a gifted of any sort as that would draw the attention of the wolves towards him in the Night.

But if Volo was a wolf and Lhuna his mate that defence would make sense... nicely vague and general (referring to general principles of not voting for those who have no time to play and thence sidetracking the real issue) but still working towards shielding the suspicions away from Volo?

[Thinlómien]

Okay, deadline draws nearer and I have no idea who to vote. Maybe a little summary-ish thing would help.

Innocent-looking
Aganzir
Mithalwen (whatever Mr Hiccup says)

Quite okay
Lhuna

Very neutral
Nerwen
Kath
Volo
Nogrod

A little less neutral
Oddwen
Legate
Gwath

Absolutely no idea
Elf-Warrior
Sally

The problem with Legate, Gwath and Oddwen is that I really don't suspect them more than anybody else. They might have said something to raise my eyebrows more than the others but still, they don't strike me as particularily suspicious. I'd be very hesitant to vote anyone of them on the current grounds. It would feel stupid and very random. I feel like I'm suspecting them just because I have to suspect someone and not because their behaviour genuinely looks wolvish to me. It's like I note some behaviour that could be a sign of wolvishness and make it my suspicion because I have nothing else to go on. It doesn't feel good. I really hope someone starts revealing their furry side and soon, because currently I have the feeling I want to vote someone who won't get lynched and have my conscience clear because I'm at loss with this...

Okay, maybe a reread would be a good idea. I'll do it sooner and later and be back after it.


edit: xed with Mith

[Kath]

Right, well it looks like this is the only chance I'll have to post again today so let's have a look through at everyone.

Agan - some nice random accusations, pretty normal Day 1 fare. Has Legate, Lommy and Nog as the wolves.

Gwath - gives the sentiments of most, and I can't argue given my very late arrival. Thinks Oddwen is suspicious for copying his cop-out, but Nog is too for leaping on it. Argues himself in circles about Legate.

Legate - some random stuff, and then it's suspicion of Nog and Mith which is immediately backtracked, especially over Nog. Again then with Lommy as well. So having stated Mith, Nog and Lommy are suspect he then immediately turns his statement round on all three, yet still ends up with Mith in his suspicion list. Looks at Gwath but makes no sure decision.

Lhuna - mentions the uselessness of Day 1's. Has Mith and Legate as innocent, unsure over Lommy and Volo and little on anyone else. Votes Gwath with fair reasoning.

Mith - started off the thread very amusingly, but little of substance. Claims we won't get any double revelations, but I think it's still possible, one should never underestimate the deviosity of werewolf players. On the statistics again, something I am rarely a fan of so early on. Is clearly having fun though. Playing for fun rather than to win, which suggests innocent to me. Some suspicion of Nog.

Nerwen - little there. Suspicion of Gwath, Lhuna, Legate and either Nog or Mith.

Noggie - picked up on Mith's mentioning of Gifted's as well, same ideas as me there. Arguing himself in circles over her though, so as normal. Kneejerk reaction on Oddwen, Gwath and Lhuna and thinks Lommy innocent. Agrees with Lommy about Gwath and Legate but thinks Oddwen innocent. Thinks Volo and Lhuna could be a wolvish pair.

Oddwen - some randomness.

Lommy - I am your semi-nemesis? I was not aware of this! I knew about morm and Lhuna (lover-traitor) but alright, I'll have another. A little bit accusative, or at least feeling somewhat sharp in the way she questioned Mith. Not sure about her mentioning her own flip flop, especially since it wasn't really one. Picks up on Nog and Mith 'interacting', though I'd say they hadn't done an enormous amount of that. Thinks Legate and Gwath are overthinking what Lhuna did and some suspicion of Volo and Oddwen, all with some fair reasoning. Has Mith, Agan and Lhuna innocent. The person who has just decided you're a wolf and you say 'oh yes they're innocent', well that's an old wolvish trick and I'm not sure Lommy would be that obvious, but it's possible.

Volo - votes for himself, which is about the most unhelpful thing you can do on Day 1 but we're clearly going to get nothing else out of him for the Day.

Nothing from sally or the Elf Warrior, hopefully they'll appear before the Day is out. But now, I must vote.

Innocent:
Agan
Lhuna
Mith
Nerwen
Volo

Guilty:
Gwath
Legate
Nog
Lommy

Everyone else I'm not sure about. Of those I find suspicious I am tempted to vote Gwath or Legate for a couple of reasons. First I don't want to vote Nog because I have an automatic reaction of suspicion. Lommy I don't feel is suspicious enough to warrant a vote. Both Gwath and Legate argue themselves in circles about each other as if deliberately trying not to come to a final decision, but Legate does it for other people as well so is more irritating with it. Therefore:

++LEGATE

[Gwathagor]

I don't like these myths that have sprung up around me - if they go on much longer, they'll become tradition, and then they'll haunt me for the rest of the game, even after they are unrecognizably far from the truth.

Myth #1: I chime in with people. Reality: I've posted twice, and spoken my mind both times. Granted, my first post was not helpful.

Myth #2: I'm trying to flatter Legate so that he'll help me out later. Reality: I stated that Legate, as usual, seems rational. This is a truth universally acknowledged throughout the Downs, and, if anything, it puts me more on my guard because I am a sucker for rational arguments.

Myth #4: Me and Legate are arguing circles around each other. Reality: I posted a brief paragraph mentioning Legate.

Ok. I am going to try to read through the thread again. I need to narrow my suspicions, which at this point, include just about everyone.

X-ed with Aganzir

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

because currently I have the feeling I want to vote someone who won't get lynched and have my conscience clear because I'm at loss with this...

Ha! Another Frollo!

Originally Posted by Lommy

I feel like I'm suspecting them just because I have to suspect someone and not because their behaviour genuinely looks wolvish to me. It's like I note some behaviour that could be a sign of wolvishness and make it my suspicion because I have nothing else to go on. It doesn't feel good. I really hope someone starts revealing their furry side and soon, ---

I haven't quite decided yet whether this honest whining is that of a wolf or innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lhuna really creeps me out. She hasn't exactly "reacted" to my suspicions but has been posting innocentish stuff all Day. But then I found that she thought me one of her main candidates without stating any reason for it. Now is that an innocent retaliation-reaction or a lycanthropic effort of spreading suspicion for a possibly dangerous adversary?

A fair point about Lhuna not reacting to your suspicion. But I'm not sure what you meant by saying she didn't state a reason for suspecting you. Do you mean she didn't say that in the post in which she declared you as one of her top suspects, or that she didn't give proper reasons for you being either a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent?

Originally Posted by Nog

Agan's questioning of the grounds for the suspicions & her opposition to Gwath's suspiciousness speak good of her as wolves would love to cling into any generally shared suspicion whenever there's one and Gwath has been mentioned as suspicious by a few already.

Actually, I suspect Gwath too. I just didn't find hating day ones a reason to do so.

Originally Posted by Nog

But I'm also feeling a bit uneasy with a situation where someone will be automatically looked upon as an innocent just because she says she is. I mean a few of you have already kind of declared her innocent just because of that.

She's someone I'm not going to vote today, not one innocence of whose I'll be sure for the rest of the game.

Given their interaction, I might be inclined to consider Lhuna and Legate fellow wolves.

Another one I'm not going to vote today is Kath. She shares my suspects and arguments in an innocent-looking way.

edit: xed with Gwath

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kath

Legate - some random stuff, and then it's suspicion of Nog and Mith which is immediately backtracked, especially over Nog. Again then with Lommy as well. So having stated Mith, Nog and Lommy are suspect he then immediately turns his statement round on all three, yet still ends up with Mith in his suspicion list. Looks at Gwath but makes no sure decision.

I don't like the simple and nothing-saying analysis of me, but whatever. How should I say that... if I were a wolf and wanted to lynch me, I would surely find better way to express evidence why I am guilty. But this is not like it. I thought about a possiblilty that she may be the wolf and not making direct accusations, simply hoping to get me down. And for example there could be other reasons, like that Gwath is a fellow wolf and she wants to bring forward another lynchee the people might eventually vote for. I may be of course overcomplicating it. But anyway. Also...

Originally Posted by Kath

Mith - started off the thread very amusingly, but little of substance. Claims we won't get any double revelations, but I think it's still possible, one should never underestimate the deviosity of werewolf players. On the statistics again, something I am rarely a fan of so early on. Is clearly having fun though. Playing for fun rather than to win, which suggests innocent to me. Some suspicion of Nog.

This actually troubles me more. Thinking of the former, Kath did not have much time as she said, so whatever. But this? There have been looots of people who obviously "played for fun rather than to win" or such, but Kath never called it like that except for Mith's case. So, is she making a defense of fellow wolf? If Mith is a wolf, Kath may be as well?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ha! Another Frollo!

And stop saying that, I always read "Frodo"

EDIT: X-ed since my last post.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, nothing new to say about today after a reread.

Now onto Gwath and Legate...


Gwath about Legate

Day1
#27 Calls him reasonable and impenetrable, but doesn't like his "honest gut feelings". Ends up having no real opinion on him.
#51 Busts a myth about him trying to flatter Legate: says he merely called Legate rational and that it's an universal truth. Also busts a myth about him and Legate arguing in circles with each other: says he merely posted a brief paragraph about Legate.

Day2
- nothing this far -


Legate about Gwath

Day1
#32 Teases him with a nickname, says he makes him feel a little uneasy and both agrees and disagrees with him about Lhuna's lists, wonders/is suspicious of Gwath calling him reasonable. Concludes: "But overall, it's not that bad with Gwath. He's in the yellow zone for me (that's next to the green zone, which is okay). Gwathwolf used to be worse as far as I could tell from an observer-point."
#48 Says he's in his "yellow zone", but doesn't like him being a probable lynch-candidate. Strays from the Gwath-topic to talk about lynching quiet people, says that we could always lynch Gwathagor the following day.
#54 Speculates that Gwath could be Kath's fellow.
#55 Replies to Gwath's mythbusting: says he was not reasonable in the beginning of Day1 and that Gwath's other mythbusting concerning the two of them is right and implies claiming something like the "myth" is suspicious.
#73 Says he will leave voting Gwath for that day since he has lately seemed more reasonable.

Day2
#90 Doubts Lhuna dreamt of Gwath.
#111 Repeats the point mentioned above, although says she could have done so.


Conclusion: Just as bad as I thought it was. I really don't like the way they flip-flop and are indesicive about each other. They also defend each other a bit sneakily: Gwath does not defend only himself in his myth-busting and Legate is a tad too certain Lhuna didn't dream of Gwath. Also, his decidion not to vote Gwath looks a bit bad.
This of course doesn't prove that they're wolves. But if one of them is, I'd have a careful look at the other. There's something odd in here.


edit: xed with Mith, Nerwen and Mith

[The Elf-warrior]

I have poem for you all. It's entitled "A Bucket Has Been Kicked"

Who is a wolf, I can not tell.
The thoughts in my head aren't clear as a bell.
Is it Mithalwen?
Or could it be Lhunardawen?
Or is it another?
All I know is the dairy farmer has been smothered
By men who take the shape of lycanthropes.
This problem has got this village by the throat.


Ok, on to business. Nogrod's critique of group based arguments in post 15 should be heeded. I'd like to add that the odds of being a wolve are x out of 14 (x=how many lycanthropes there are in this village.) If I had to guess, Nogrod's probably clean. Also, it doesn't matter whether someone has been a wolf before, the odds of someone being a wolf this time are still the same. Lhuna, Legate didn't say everyone was a cobbler, he said everyone was acting like a cobbler. On the other hand, the contents of your list may have been intended for humour as Lommy said, thus making your statement less suspicious in my opinion. As to Lommy's complaint about voting because one has to suspect someone seems perfectly innocent to me. As to Mithalwen, I'm inclined to agree with Kath that she's not a wolf on the grounds that she's playing for fun. I'll vote closer to the deadline.

[Mithalwen]

I was getting suspicious of Legate but I am so flattered he used Sama that I may have to rethink

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Especially Gwath and Legate:
What? So Lhuna's lists are "clear" and "helpful" and "statement of fact and not much own opinion" and she "limits herself to facts and not value judgements"? Am I missing the sarcasm or something? While I appreciate Lhuna's lists and find them amusing, I would never use those expressions to describe them. In my opinion, they are full of very subjective interpretation and more joking & bantering than clear and helpful statement of facts. There is nothing wrong with this kind of approach (meaning Lhuna's approach, of course), but there is something wrong with the fact that these two gentlemen interpret Lhuna's posts so very differently from how I do it. I mean, their view seems quite limited, if not even false.

Not sure what I said was well understandable. I definitely did not agree with Gwath's marking of Lhuna's posts as "clear" or "helpful". What I said was not about Lhuna, but about Gwath: I meant that his evaluation of Lhuna's posts seemed logical (the way I understand Gwath, i.e. doesn't mean I agree with him) and spoke for his good. And I thought similarly, that is, that Lhuna may have simply posted "lists", which is nice (speaking now overall of lists, not of these in particular), but it doesn't help as it's just a list and you don't learn anything about the list-maker himself (or you actually may, as his thoughts leak in it whether he wishes or not. But I spoke about it all in the post about it earlier pretty well, I think).

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And I promise to lynch you first if you keep using Japanese words because they are ugly.

All right, I'll stop. I don't know many of them anyway. So:

Aganzir-chan looks innocentish to me, although I am aware that when she looks innocent, she generally isn't and vice versa, however I would like to hope this time it's different.

Gwathagor-kun is more in the yellow line, which makes him one of the most probable lynchees... however... err, I don't like it. Actually I am toying with the idea to lynch someone who has given no evidence at all but just banter (other than Volo, that is). We can always lynch Gwath tomorrow. But there's the thing that I never did that (meaning lynching a silent one), and I would have also to see whom to pick... (The main idea for this is the "deterrent example" to be made for those who don't post... right from the top of my head I am thinking about Oddwen or such, who have posted several times, but posted absolutely nothing of worth, and that is even at the time when there were topics to discuss.)

Lhuna-san looks sometimes strange, maybe she is catching to a good possible lynchee Gwath and not going after me because I may be her support... whatever. She'd be also around the yellow line, also, possibly.

Nogrod-sama looks helpful, although his latter posts give me the worries of possible sinisterness, in accord to what I said earlier. But he's not high on my list (meaning, not high in suspicion).

Lommy-chan looks more like her innocent self even with the latter posts.

Mithalwen-sama I am not viewing that well still, however I am not that sure about her and I will refrain from voting her today.

I see Nerwen-sama has posted as well now, good. One thing to what you said: yes, I have been definitely gibbering more than usual, I am well aware of that, looks like I am like that now. But that's not a matter to worry about. Overall, Nerwen looks innocentish to me from the little I have.

About others, I can't say A nor B, because I can't recall them saying anything interesting.

And P.S. I'll be for ignoring Volo-san's vote today. For myself, I think it was of no significance at all. He simply left for today, and that's it. Not making + nor - from it.

EDIT: x-ed since Kath

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Aganzir-chan looks innocentish to me, although I am aware that when she looks innocent, she generally isn't and vice versa, however I would like to hope this time it's different.

Last time Legate-sika said so he was a wolf. I have no reason to assume he is this time different.