Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Rikae]

I suggest we DON'T focus on Roa or tp. No wizard in her right mind would scry either of them, anyway.

[Gwathagor]

Yeah, well, I looked back through and I can't find whatever it was that gave me that impression, so...never mind. You're probably right about those two anyway.

[Gwathagor]

Actually, I'm curious now that I think about it: why don't you think we should consider Roa and tp today? Too much attention unhealthy for them? Or what?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I suggest we DON'T focus on Roa or tp. No wizard in her right mind would scry either of them, anyway.

Unless the wizard in question scried them on Night1... which is a plain obvious fact and makes me a little wary of you, Rikae. You accuse people of overlooking facts or miselading people yet what you do resembles the behaviour you criticise quite a lot...

I don't know what this might mean, but looking at the Day 1 record, Aganzir didn't have to vote Nerwen to save herself; Nerwen already had 5 votes to Aganzir's 4 before Aganzir voted. Is there another reason, maybe, that she voted Nerwen?

She's a wolf and Nerwen was going to die anyway. She couldn't think of a better vote and decided to jump on the wagon. Besides, if everybody who did not vote had turned up and voted her, she would have been lynched. So she was also kind of making sure, I'd say.

Anyway, friends and relatives, I'm going to sleep now. It's almost 4am here and I'm gradually getting more and more slow-witted (or slower-and-slower-witted? bah, this English is really killing me tonight). Aieeeeeeeee, it looks like sun's rising. I'd really better go. Good night or whatever time of the day you guys are having.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Unless the wizard in question scried them on Night1... which is a plain obvious fact and makes me a little wary of you, Rikae. You accuse people of overlooking facts or miselading people yet what you do resembles the behaviour you criticise quite a lot...

(I accidentally typed "quoth" above in the second brackets. Quoth the Penguin "Nevermore"...)
Anyway, nope. I am not misleading. Roa and tp would be bad scry choices even then - too likely to be unscried, dreamed or lynched. Too risky.

Originally Posted by [B

The Lommy[/B]] more and more slow-witted (or slower-and-slower-witted? bah, this English is really killing me tonight).

Either.

[Rikae]

Same great flavor, less threatening.

(And now with triple-posting action!)

[mormegil]

Lommy, the biggest problem I have with you analysis is that you have an assumption that, in my mind, is invalid. I don't think the EW would reveal the identity of the other wolves. It seems easier to have the wolves remain undected if they don't know each other.

Rikae is off the wall completely and I don't know what to make of it.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Lommy, the biggest problem I have with you analysis is that you have an assumption that, in my mind, is invalid. I don't think the EW would reveal the identity of the other wolves.

I agree. It seems more likely, as some have pointed out before, that the wolves were issued a short list of non-wolves to vote for, rather than risk leaking the identities of all the wolves to the GW by revealing the wolves' identities to each other. The pay-off (inter-wolf coordination) doesn't make the immense risk worthwhile.