Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

If no one is willing to consider that Cailin is a baddie (perhaps even the EW) then I will have to say... if you think we MUST vote for either Legate or Rikae, I find Rikae to be a wiser choice.

If she's bad, we've revealed the EW. Or killed a wolf.

If she's the GW, we just confirmed what she told us.

If she's a gifted, would she have self voted? Encouraged us to lynch her? Don't think so.

My gut, my impressions from all her posts, tell me Cailin is bad.

You're far more into the cold hard logic game, Roa -- I'm more about smelling evil coming off a person's tone and actions. But I've always known you to be able to get the village on your side, not matter what side you're on, because of how collected you seem. So I'm going to let this matter rest for a bit, and say that if people are going to disregard my suppositions, at least lynch Rikae. I don't think that, whatever she is, we'll be killing an ordo or gifted if we do so.

That's just it, Di. You can't know that she isn't a gifted. And if she is the GW or a gifted, then not only have we revealed that fact for certain to the EW, not only have we killed a gifted, then we've also passed up a wolf that's been handed to us on a silver platter.

It's better to lynch Legate. In any case, Rikae is not foolish enough to lie about that claim unless she was handing us a wolf to make us believe her. He's stated already that he is not a gifted, or at least not the seer, so we lose that risk right there. It's far less risky to lynch him than her.

Curious: Why not Legate?

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

That's just it, Di. You can't know that she isn't a gifted.

Yeah but I can suppose that Gifted Rikae wouldn't stick her neck out this far. Gifteds aren't supposed to stick their necks out during the day, their work gets done at night. Pretending to be the GW and voting for herself seems pretty reckless for a Gifted.

And if she is the GW or a gifted, then not only have we revealed that fact for certain to the EW, not only have we killed a gifted, then we've also passed up a wolf that's been handed to us on a silver platter.

This platter doesn't look silver to me. I keep saying this, you keep being perplexed about my mistrust. It looks like a lead platter. That's why I keep finding subversive reasons for Rikae's actions.

It's better to lynch Legate. In any case, Rikae is not foolish enough to lie about that claim unless she was handing us a wolf to make us believe her.

Killing an innocent Legaate potentially leaves her with 5 wolves after the night is out. That's good for her, bad for the village. Besides, if she is the EW or a Wolf, the GW knows it by now. Who cares about the village. We're impotent. If she's bad, the person who matters already knows. Honestly.

[QUOTECurious: Why not Legate?[/QUOTE]

Because, Rikae wants us to, and since I don't trust her reveal. It does not seem wise, from the GW's perspective, to reveal herself at this stage in the game, and all my suspicions stem from the fact that it doesn't seem like Good Wizardly behavior.

This leads me to mistrust her and what she wants the village to do. She wants us to either vote for her, or Legate. But it seems that she wants us to go for Legate, over her.

Look at it this way. Bad Rikae gets us to lynch Innocent Legate. The village is down another innocent and hasn't caught a wolf. The Good Wizard can try to scry a possible wolf and get that wolf to turn, but who to scry? Rikae? If Rikae is a wolf, that's one less wolf. But if Rikae is the EW, then the GW gains that knowledge but doesn't get to turn a Wolf to an Ordo. Plus, the GW doesn't get to turn an Ordo into a Ranger.

Five wolves, no Ranger.

The GW is playing by Rikae the EW's rules, now, eh?

Plus, face it. If Rikae is evil she's probably taking a look at who doesn't trust her. I have a feeling this is what tp is talking about (and his conscientiousness is admirable) in his post about a possible motivation that he doesn't want to talk about. But if Rikae is indeed evil, she already knows her motivation so it's moot to hide it from everyone else. I already said it, before I got the idea that she was protecting Cailin. She's trying to flush out the GW! By making her reveal, and looking at who does and does not doubt.

Hey, okay, you're now going to say, "Oh, what, Di, are you the GW? Is that what you're saying?"

No, I'm just saying I'm not as stupid as my joking antics might lead you to believe, this little ordo doesn't like to blindly trust weird, unnecessary looking reveals. And the more people who don't openly trust her, the less easy it is for her to figure out who knows for sure she's lying.

My thought is that the GW is too canny to fall for this trap, and is pretending to believe her. Judging from the amount of people not agreeing with me, I'm hoping this is the case, anyway.

I've probably xposted with a lost of people.

[Diamond18]

Oh for the love of.... I've cross posted with everyone since the post by Roa that I was responding to.

SEE? tp has revealed (well, if you trust him, oh, this is going to cause headaches) and that's exactly what an evil Rikae probably wanted. To at least flush out a gifted, if not the GW.

I have to read everyone else's posts now.

[A Little Green]

Aaaargh! I thought I'd post but now that I've read the thread this far I haven't got a clue. This is just too damn confusing. I don't trust Rikae, but I don't trust phantom either. I need to think. Back with thoughts if I ever get those.


EDIT: x-ed with Di's last

[satansaloser2005]

Well, crap. Sorry I haven't been here, my mother dropped by my house for a couple hours....and I kinda slept in.

Okay, I haven't trusted Rikae for a while now. She put words in my mouth (I didn't mention Legate in EITHER of my analyses of the others, at least not in detail) and she's way too....just odd. I'm going to go over posts, but for now I either want her lynched or....or something else. While I don't trust Phantom completely, based on my already bad impression of Rikae I'm more than happy to believe him.

By the way, I left my Cailin, etc. notes at my house. (Sorry, I'm a nutter today!) I'm going to head off somewhere in an hour or two so I can be in a proper place to get internet (i.e. a coffee shop or something, as opposed to my parking lot hehe). Bearing that in mind, I'll be quiet for a bit, but the last hour or so I'll be here in full force. And for reference, at the moment my first two lynch choices are Rikae and Cailin, in no particular order. On about your business.



EDIT: x'd with the posts since Gramma Greenie. Flipping eh, this is giving me a headache.

[Lalaith]

Ok, things are feeling a bit clearer now.
Phantom's been acting upfront and stroppy all game, even by his standards. Being the Hunter might fit in with that. Hmmm.

I'm going off to eat supper now, and will chew over all these events, as well as my food. Back soon.

[the phantom]

Phantom's been acting upfront and stroppy all game, even by his standards. Being the Hunter might fit in with that. Hmmm.

Well, the goal was for me to look ridiculously bold, as if I didn't fear a lynch much. That way it would be believable when/if I came forward as the GW.

There were several things that could have happened after that, but I'm sure that we will all get to talk about that plenty post-game.

[Brinniel]

Oh good god. A whole another four pages while I was gone.

Just checking in....in case anyone's missed me. I haven't read anything since page 17, so I'll be back in an hour or more.

[Roa_Aoife]

Too many reveals in a Day. To reveal as the Hunter was a foolish move, Phantom. The EW can simply scry you and then kill you to avoid any danger. You should have revealed as something else.

Which is why I find your reveal to be the most difficult of all to trust.

I haven't the time to stick around now.

++Legate

Am I certain? No. I couldn't possibly be. But don't trust phantom's reveal. It simply is unwise. Furthermore, Phantom, unless the GW revealed to you, which I doubt, you can't know that Rikae isn't on your side. And if she is the EW, it's likely she'll hand us a wolf to make herself more credible.

[Roa_Aoife]

And it wouldn't be the first time you lied about being the hunter...

[Diamond18]

Whom to trust? tp or Roa? (Rikae is practically a non-object since she ran away with very little explanation of herself.)

Well, I think it's obvious. Good or bad intentions, tp's been sharing my views on this whole mess and I'm not going to start disagreeing with him now that he's claimed special knowledge to make his case more credible.

Still, I kind of want to hold my vote, to see if I should vote for Cailin (who I want to vote for) or Rikae (to save us the ignominy of lynching a quite possibly innocent Legate).

It's not even 3 PM (three hours till the deadline). Oy vey. How much drama and arguments can we pack into three hours???

I love WW... even if the first day or so can be a little annoying with little to go on, by Day 3 at least there are heaps of drama to be had by all.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Roa

And if she is the EW, it's likely she'll hand us a wolf to make herself more credible.

You had better freakin' hope so, since you elected to vote for the target of a known evil-doer rather than the known WW.

But don't trust phantom's reveal. It simply is unwise.

No it isn't! We have to get the number of WWs under control to limit kills! And I know a WW!

Originally Posted by Roa

And it wouldn't be the first time you lied about being the hunter...

Ha ha ha!

Yes, and if you recall I was on the right side in that village.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Roa

Phantom, unless the GW revealed to you, which I doubt, you can't know that Rikae isn't on your side.

The GW did reveal to me- on the very first Night. We've been pming directly.

Don't know about the other gifteds like Volo, but with me that was the case.

PS No, I didn't know Volo was the Seer till after he was dead. So no, the GW didn't completely reveal everyone to me. I'm not trying to say that.

[Gwathagor]

Oh man this is crazy.

I don't trust either Rikae or TP (with you there, ALG). However, there seem to be more reasons to lynch Rikae than anyone else.

Regarding Celuien's point that the GW would be unlikely to reveal at this point, because the good side was down a gifted: wouldn't the GW just be able to scry up a Ranger toNight? How would revealing inhibit this action?

That said, I agree that there seems to be little reason for revealing as GW at this point in the game, and if there was, Rikae certainly would have given more explanation than she did - were she good. A legit GW would have been careful to reveal herself only when it was to the greatest advantage of the village, and, so far, I can't see much good that has come out of Rikae's reveal. This is the most persuasive point against her: that her "reveal" has NOT been helpful.

[Gwathagor]

Of course, Rikae did have to rush off all quick-like. I, for one, am going to reserve judgment until Rikae comes back and explains herself. Assuming she's back before DL. Time to sit back and observe the fireworks.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Gwath

I don't trust either Rikae or TP (with you there, ALG). However, there seem to be more reasons to lynch Rikae than anyone else.

If you are inclined to lean towards Rikae's guilt, please lynch Cailin.

The fact is, I know she's a WW. I don't know what Rikae is for sure.

If she's the EW then we will have blown our chance of cutting the WWs down to three. The only thing we'd accomplish is revealing her, which the GW or Seer will do tonight anyway if we just leave her alone.

Lynch the known wolf- Cailin.

Leave Rikae be for right now.

[Thinlómien]

Why on earth would Rikae be the EW? That does not make sense. I'm not trusting tp, but I'm not claiming he's faking. I'm just unsure. The best course might be to lynch Rikae. She's either wolf, GW or hunter, and so we either a) lynch a wolf, b) lynch no one or c) lynch a hunter who takes down a wolf. We can't really lose if we lynch her, we can just not win.

If we lynch Cailín, it's a complete shot at the dark. We may (quite probably) get rid of a wolf, but we may as well lynch an ordo, a gifted or a wizard. Pretty much the same goes for lynching Legate.

I think we should lynch Rikae now and investigate this phantom-Cailín tangle toMorrow.


edit: xed with Celuien

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Regarding Celuien's point that the GW would be unlikely to reveal at this point, because the good side was down a gifted: wouldn't the GW just be able to scry up a Ranger toNight? How would revealing inhibit this action?

Yes, but a reveal would make tonight the last night available since a duel is highly likely tomorrow... if there weren't a reveal now, there would at least be a full roster of gifted tomorrow, plus one extra night for seering/scrying. And there's the what if scenario where the one who's scried turns out to be a wolf, and all we get is the return of an ordo with no chance to fill out the roster. Does that make more sense?

And ugh. More reveals. My head hurts.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Yes, but a reveal would make tonight the last night available since a duel is highly likely tomorrow... if there weren't a reveal now, there would at least be a full roster of gifted tomorrow, plus one extra night for seering/scrying. And there's the what if scenario where the one who's scried turns out to be a wolf, and all we get is the return of an ordo with no chance to fill out the roster. Does that make more sense?

Yes. YES! Celuien makes sense.

If we don't kill a wolf today, (CAILIN) the GW is force to scry her tonight to make her an ordo. The GW doesn't get to make a Ranger!!!!

If we kill Cailin, we're down a wolf and the GW gets to make a Ranger in the night!

Honestly, I find tp's claim to be the Hunter believable. He's been acting like he owns the world ever since Day 1, which does fit with the notion that he's got a lethal power and knows who the GW is. (Since Night 1). He's been consistent. Consistency is a good thing.