Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Rikae]

Ok - The Elf-Warrior (who I was about to call "she" too, before Form beat me to it) started ringing my alarm bells from his first post yesterDay, and his vote is one of the most evil looking I have ever seen. However, there's something that bugs me about this - I'm not sure how often he's played WW before, but his first posts bothered me precisely because they looked like the nervously smiling, orchestrated posts of a newbie wolf. The rather cocky vote, however, is more like something a bold, experienced wolf might try as a method of "hiding in the open" - defying the village openly in a way a newbie wolf wouldn't dare to do. I will be watching him closely from now on - I have some more thoughts about him I'd rather not mention just yet.

Originally Posted by shasta

Hmm. In #102, Nogrod expressly edits, mentioning Eonwe's edit to say he X'd with Eomer, but apparently did not X with anyone above him, leading me to an odd conclusion. To quote Alice; "Curiouser and curiouser!"

The post before Eomer's was Nogrod's, made two minutes earlier. The one before that was Eonwe's (sorry, I can type ö, but no appropriate e) earlier post. Incidentally, if Eonwe crossed with Eomer, it means he took between 9 and 7 minutes to make his vote-post... evidence of some dilly-dallying or careful thought, but not long enough to be suspicious. Not sure what exactly you're getting at, Shasta.

[Rikae]

Oh, and one more thing regarding Eönwe and Eomer -
I can't for the life of me see what was so suspicious about Mith yesterday.

For that matter, I can't see why Sixth was lynched, or why Nerwen thought there was a wolf among Form/Agan/Nilp (not that there isn't), nor why Kitanna voted the indeed suspicious Nerwen for all the wrong reasons, nor why Nogrod was (and is) so quiet. *whew*

That said, there is an innocent (unless cobbler) now known to our ranger, and I suspect it is among those the wolves could be expected to want out of the way early on (which makes me feel better about Nogrod - or possibly, makes the ranger feel better about me? )

Oh, and another thing - Form, in my opinion wolf kills (at least early in the game) are rarely as enlightening as they are made out to be. Usually, they absorb everyone's attention for the first half of the day and then everyone ends up agreeing that it was a "random kill" or possibly a bluff or a double bluff, leaving us where we started, but down an innocent and one day closer to annihilation. Three cheers for the ranger, I say.

EDIT: X'd with Formendacil

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh, and another thing - Form, in my opinion wolf kills (at least early in the game) are rarely as enlightening as they are made out to be. Usually, they absorb everyone's attention for the first half of the day and then everyone ends up agreeing that it was a "random kill" or possibly a bluff or a double bluff, leaving us where we started, but down an innocent and one day closer to annihilation. Three cheers for the ranger, I say.

True enough... they are very often baffling. That being said, however, they provide more hard evidence than a successful Ranger save does. If nothing else, if one looks at all the suspicions of the eaten, and assume that they were all barking up the wrong trees, then we have that much more reason to look at the wolves.

That being said, I will not press the case too strongly, since for all I know--I'm barking up the wrong trees and the wolves are salivating at the thought. I would certainly prefer in such a case to be saved by the Ranger. I'm just pointing out that there is a pessimistic silvery lining to every gorgeous thunderstorm.

Off to church... back sometime later.

[Nerwen]

Kitanna, you are making my brain hurt!

Originally Posted by Kitanna

my suspicions of Nerwen have not lessened from yesterday. But I feel more confident in mischief on her part now than I did when I voted yesterday. However, I am not confident enough enough to vote for her.

But... you're saying you were less confident yesterday, when you did vote for me. Huh?

Then you vote Aganzir, saying that she's more suspicious than Eönwë. Yet your previous post was a rather convincing argument for Eönwë being the more likely hacker of the two, with Aganzir the possible spammer.

What changed your mind?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Not sure what exactly you're getting at, Shasta.

I think he's implying that Eönwë lied about having x'd with Eomer.

(P.S. you can just copy people screennames from their posts, accents and all. That's what I do.)

EDIT: x'd with Formendacil, Rikae, & Formendacil again.

[Nerwen]

Since Rikae was curious, I looked up the Tol-in-Gaurhoth Grimoire. It appears this is The Elf-Warrior's third game, and unless he was a wolf in his first, he has never been one. So... are his tactics too bold for a newbie-wolf? His vote looks extremely non-innocent, but perhaps he is the cobbler/spammer?

I haven't decided who I'll vote for yet. I really have to get some sleep now. Hopefully I'll be back for the deadline. If not... well, you'll just have to do your best without me.

Goodnight.

EDIT: fixed stuff.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Two people, keeping to the sides, and who are making me wonder, are Durelin and THE Ka. At a point when there were 6 candidates with a vote, these two come in and offer another two candidates. Of course any limit to the number of candidates has to be arbitrary, but I wonder if Durelin and Ka weren’t trying too hard not to bandwagon. Their subdued interaction in the village further suggests that they are just letting everyone else do the thinking, and politely staying in the shadows.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Eomer

I wonder if Durelin and Ka weren’t trying too hard not to bandwagon.

I can’t speak for Durelin obviously, but the bandwagon I was avoiding since I was a bit behind the development of the posts, was the N/F/A one brewing earlier. Simply, I thought it was a wasted effort and went on to vote how I wanted to. As for Sixth’s bandwagon, I of course read Agan’s original post stating that she’d more than likely vote for him, but wasn’t sure. Then she quavered between Nerwen and a few others, but always mentioned Sixth as a sidenote. Thinking is a process, but it struck me as odd for Agan to carry extra baggage in voting possibilities. Usually she is more clean-cut, and she gave the impression of forcing herself to ‘appear’ her vote indecisively.

Personally, I didn’t see any great reasoning ground to vote for Sixth anyways. He looked like an easy kill once others started pouncing on his posts, so I ignored the posts against him and the bandwagon, shrugged it off, and went back to my earlier suspicions and what I genuine suspicion in at that time. I’m only a bit tired in floating around without much of a clue, to which bandwagons are a great remedy, but I’m voting for what I want to now and so I’m just not really looking at bandwagons or what time my vote came in. As long as it is before the deadline, that really only what I care about.

Unfortunately today a bit of problems just brewed up so I more than likely will not be able to make it before the deadline, or I'll have to vote early anyways. Wish I could say more, but life happens.


~ Ka

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think he's implying that Eönwë lied about having x'd with Eomer.

Yes, but why? Because he posted 7 minutes after Eomer? Because he didn't cross with Nogrod? Either way, it seems pretty far-fetched.

I will say that, Shasta's theory aside, Eönwë's vote doesn't look particularly well-reasoned anyway.

[Rikae]

If EW doesn't start speaking up in a helpful and non-evil manner very soon, I suggest we lynch him. He's contributing very little and what he does contribute exudes evil.

EW, you have one hour to convince me that you are not a danger to the village...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If EW doesn't start speaking up in a helpful and non-evil manner very soon, I suggest we lynch him. He's contributing very little and what he does contribute exudes evil.

EW, you have one hour to convince me that you are not a danger to the village...

Is this a self-reference, Evil Wizard?

For the slow among us, who or what is EW?

EDIT: Elf-Warrior, right.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the three arms, and the stellar rings of doom...

Is this a self-reference, Evil Wizard?

Yep. I also neglected to mention my new gender.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Form on my vote

so the fact that he throws his vote away on Sixth at the very last minute, when there was already no doubt that he was going to be lynched, cannot be simply taken as a sign of an innocent tacking his vote on for the sake of voting and not wanting to make a decision that made a difference.

I think you are forgetting an important thing here. I really needed to consider the vote there - I mean in the end I actually voted not my prime suspects but one I'd agree.

In case of a tie the lynchee will be randomised. After Agan's vote Sixth had 4 votes, Eönwë 3 and Nerwen & Mith 2 each - and there were three who had not voted yet. So there was a danger of a tie of three emerging including Mith or Nerwen (whom I considered and still do consider not good lynches at least before any better reasons are given). By voting Sixth I did my best to keep Mith & Nerwen away from the gallows.

I'm not saying they are innocents. And if I still live toMorrow I will have to look at them closer (as I will then have time again).


But Form is right in asking after those voting for the Sixth as he turned out an "easy prey" indeed.

I'll try to do that myself as well as I return to the computer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah, someone else has posted about Eonwe. Sorry lad, but...

His posts 58 and 70 are, well, I can't think of the word but how one would describe a big ladle stirring mixture in a bubbling cauldron. Making fuss over Formendacil and Aganzir for very slight things. I think he might be our spammer, actually.

[Boromir88]

Formen, I am frustrated by not being able to be on-line and contribute. Plain and simple, frustrated, make of that what you will.

Most suspicious
Eonwe- Voted not long after Eomer for Mith based on her vote for Sally who was the first to vote for Sixth
Boro- Next vote for Sixth
Elf-warrior- Third vote for Sixth
Agan-Tied Eonwe and Sixth, though a tie doesn't result in a double-lynch a tie remains a tie. If nothing else it confuses and muddles things especially close to deadline.
This is based purely on when and how they voted for, not their reasoning behind it.~Kitanna

Why are the bandwagoners the one's who are most suspicious? It is bandwagoning which causes us to win. We latch onto the ideas we think sound reasonable and go with it.

The one's to be wary of are the bold wolves who will lead a bandwagon against somebody; like Nogrod. Or the bandwagoners who jump on and only repeat what's already been said (the crafty ones will put it in different words to make it look like they came up with something). Which is why I don't buy into Eonwe's vote for Mith as being a bandwagoning wolf, or Mith's jump on sally for voting for the Sixth.

My point is the hackers will play into our hands, if all day long everyone is talking about who's jumping on and bandwagoning, the hackers are going to avoid bandwagoning and stay out of suspicion. I think we should play closer attention to those who tried to spread out the votes more and avoid falling under the "bandwagoner" category.

Like yesterDay I'm not buying this Nerwen is a wolf -argument unless it has more to it (brought there by myself or someone else). She looks more innocent and helpful than many around here.~Nogrod

Ok, let me try to explain it to you then. You say Nerwen has looked to be helpful, I say don't let looks deceive you. Yesterday, it looked like Nerwen was an easy wolf target, because of her headache causing IC posts. However, today she's kept up the same act as yesterday...posting frequently, but not saying much or being pretty vague (albeit she has mostly stopped the chatspeak talk).

It's this today that has bugged me:

Maybe I'm prejudiced here, Aganzir, but your activity yesterDay gives me a nasty impression of shopping around for someone to lynch.

On the other hand, at least you didn't vote "at random" or giving IC reasons, unlike some people I could mention.

She strongly goes after Agan, and then half-heartedly defends Agan's vote. I'm not sure how Agan "shopped around for someone to lynch," without knowing anything that's what we have to do. I can get too narrow-minded, it's good to have people who want to look at all possibilities, all situations. That makes Agan look like she's shopping around for someone to lynch but that doesn't make Agan an evil hacker. That makes her look innocent trying to come up with an answer.

Then it's the slight defense, well Agan's vote wasn't for IC reasons, that looks like a fake defense.

Which reminds me of what I was going to say about Formendacil's vote. Tis an odd vote, but don't know if it is the vote of a hacker. I do remember my first time in a village with Formen jumping on him for making an IC vote, and he turned out to be a wolf. I also remember the next time I was in a village with Formen he made an IC vote, I jumped on him again, that time he was innocent. I have a sense that's Formen's style on Day 1, it doesn't mean he isn't a hacker, but his IC vote for Nogrod alone does not make him look like one.

Edit: crossed with everything since Eomer's 7:51 post

[THE Ka]

Personally, I think Eonwe’s vote appearing right after Eomer’s is probably a result turned in favour of safety. More than likely he was going over his final thoughts on his top suspects, wrote the post and voted. After going through the heat of trying to make a good point on the first day (which, everyone wants to do), noticed Eomer’s vote several minutes before. It appears like bandwagoning, but it simply could be a result of posting and the rate of your post appearing where and when in a thread. Similar to how Durelin or my vote-post appears in the middle of the Sixth bandwagon.
When you’re busy in your own little world of indecision, you don’t pay attention to the average rate of posting between votes, or at least I don’t. It’s like doing calculus when you’re falling off a cliff.

Hmm, maybe I’m just taking too much pity than I should, but in all rationality it could simply be a stroke of luck for his vote.
Whether he is a wolf or not, it both save him and cast suspicion on his earlier posts as well.

Mith I don’t really have a complete opinion on. If she were feeling a bit better (sorry to hear about the summer cold) she probably could post more to clarify her opinions toDay, vs. her pattern from yesterDay. I’ve been reading over her posts several times, because I know something is hiding in all of that indecision, but her vote and view on the Sixth suspicion bandwagon could easily be used for or against her. Against, obviously because she had suspicion on why Sixth was such a wise choice to kill, then for time restrictions had to vote early with little grounded reason. In that order she can be taken as a wolf trying to slip out easily. For, because others disagreed with the Sixth bandwagon and in its hasty creation after the Nerwen backtrack and N/F/A affair, because of sally’s vote appearing like a safe guess.

Sally’s vote obviously was a gamble that came out correct for a strong bandwagon, but you can’t place solid suspicion on her knowing this, because I doubt she could telepathically search into our minds and guess our votes. Plus you can’t retract votes anyways, so there isn’t much else to say on this. If she is a wolf, she was no luckier than if she is an ordo who had a case of indecision and went with the strongest appearing argument of others.
In this same respect, I doubt Mith could have known it was going to be such a strong vote for Sixth, since at that time all our votes were spread out and she herself had two votes over her head. Probably good guessing, I don’t really know. This could make her suspicious for appearing ‘safe’, but the same could be said of most of us.

Aganzir, of course I have suspicion on (it’s natural, I probably always will…), because I know she’s a clever one, but I’m going to vainly hope that for the sake of diversity in the werewolf playing style, Brinn didn’t make her a wolf this time. She always appears suspicious, but ‘werewolf evil’ this time? Not so much. She gives too many options in her vote rationale toDay. If she is a wolf, oh well, just kill me now then.

Durelin I know nothing about. Sorry.

Nilp, even if he is suspicious at points, has been helpful and rational for the majority of toDay. I have little suspicion of him at the moment, plus, good vibes I guess is the best way of saying so.

Boro88 is hard to form any opinion of at the moment. I never can tell much about him anyways, due to a lack of WW co-player experience.

Form, really, no experience with or opinion fully developed on. Doesn’t matter what role he’s playing, so far he has appeared collective and grounded.

Sally, really not much either. She’s acted similar with her posting style before in either role as an ordo or a wolf. As a gifted I know she acts differently, but not as she’s been playing toDay or yesterDay. I won’t have much more of an opinion until after toDay and if she votes as well.

Ugh, there I go rationalizing myself out of my only suspicions. I don’t have more time to spare before the deadline so, I’m going to vote anyways.

++Eonwe

Only because out of my indecision, it’s the one I think know more about at the moment.

Okay, I need to return to my job precessing and bothering HR, sorry to leave so soon, but I need my job because I need money and experience as everyone else does.

~ Ka

[The Elf-warrior]

Sorry, all, I have no time to talk.

++Eönwë

[Shastanis Althreduin]

hAy n00b!!11!

d0nt u no i woz ti3d with u & mith & sixth & n3ar DL???

r u b31ng IC & makeNg c0nsp1RacY th30r13z???

or r u st00pid or wot???11!!! (Nerwen)

Translation:

Hey, silly new person!

Don't you know I was tied for votes with yourself, Mithalwen, and Sixth near the deadline?

Are you being in-character and making up ridiculous conspiracy theories?

Or, are you stupid or what?

y r U poStiNg c0nsp1RacY th30r13z??? or r u juS7 bakcing off n0w???!111!!! (Nerwen)

Translation:

Why are you posting ridiculous conspiracy theories? Or are you just backing off now?

With 12 votes still remaining? I doubt a wolf-on-wolf vote would have been a viable strategy then, especially since Eönwë is suspicious. (Nilp)

Yes, but Eonwe wasn't suspicious then, really, all the attention was on Agan, Form, and Sixth.

Do you think there'd be wolf-on-wolf voting so early? (Kitanna)

I don't see why not. It's not as if anyone would follow the first vote for someone, clearly labeled as "random".

I think my next course of action will be to go back and see if I can figure out who was conspicuous enough (assuming they both picked a loud person) to be targeted both by the wolves and the Ranger - that path hasn't been taken yet, can't hurt, and might help. How long before deadline, may I ask? I wasn't here for it yesterday.

Edit: X'd with Agan and... Elf-warrior. Oh, dear.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to take Kitanna's list to start looking at those who "spreaded" out the votes:

Votes that spread it out
Form
Kit
Sally
Mith
Eomer
Kath
Ka
Durelin

This is going to be very hypocritical of me, because I think way too much focus is being placed on too few people (Eonwe, Agan, Nerwen), thus I want to put more people under the radar.

Form was the first to vote for Nogrod. An IC vote, but I hold what I said earlier, that vote alone doesn't make him a hacker. That's how Formen seems to play Day 1's, whether he's a hacker or not. So, strictly going by his vote, he doesn't look suspicious.

Kitanna's vote for Nerwen. I also still hold to believe her vote yesterday was a well-reasoned one placed by an innocent. It's her early vote today, for Agan, that baffles me (after agreeing with me about Nerwen, and Nerwen looking more 'suspicious then yesterday). Agan must have done a pretty good leap-frog job then for you Kit?

sally's first vote for the Sixth doesn't look all that suspicious. I don't agree with Mith's feeling she was capitalizing on the growing suspicions of Sixth.

Mith's vote for sally does look odd, I find myself agreeing with Eomer that Mith was quick to jump onto sally as possibly being a "bandwagoning hacker" after the Sixth was growing in suspicion.

Eomer's vote for Mith also looks odd, because he was quick to jump on Mith for jumping on to sally. Eomer is one who is quick to react, and always seems to have some sort of trap set. I haven't seen anything else to worry me about Eomer, maybe his vote was an over-reaction to Mith's reaction.

Kath's complete random vote...that also baffles me. It baffles me in the sense that I just don't know what to think about it. I can see a bold wolf come oout and just cast a random vote, while publicly declaring that it is definitely random. I don't know if it's something Kath would do. Maybe I'm foolishly underestimating her, there's not enough on her yet to tell.

The Ka, for Rikae. Of all the vote spreaders, this one looks the most suspicious. Ka said she had a bad feeling about Rikae, and that she couldn't explain it. It's dangerous to let Rikae run wild, but to borrow Eomer's words, this is the vote that looks like someone didn't want to be a bandwagoning wolf. And she attaches the easiest accusation in the books..."Rikae doesn't make me feel good."

Edit: crossed with every post since Ka's

[Eönwë]

Votes so far:

Nilpaurion Felagund- Eönwë
Kitanna- Aganzir
Mithalwen- Elf-Warrior

So, no bandwaggons yet. Everyone's voted for someone differrent.


PS. Internet blip. Last post I saw was Boro's #189

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Sorry, all, I have no time to talk.

++Eönwë

No time to talk now or no time to talk at all?

I am seriously tempted to vote for EW.

edit because I forgot to add that a person who won't be modfired because of voting yet is not speaking is not of much use. Though I think it was quite clear anyway.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Need to vote very soon. Considering voting Mithalwen again but figure I won't get support for that. So I'll probably be content to leave that discussion for Day 3.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Actual Vote Count (I feel like phantom! )

Nilp - Eonwe (Eonwe1)
Kitanna - Aganzir (Eonwe1, Aganzir1)
Mithalwen - Elf-Warrior (Eonwe1, Aganzir1, Elf-Warrior1)
Ka - Eonwe (Eonwe2, Aganzir1, Elf-Warrior1)
Elf-Warrior - Eonwe (Eonwe3, Aganzir1, Elf-Warrior1)

Making this the second day in a row that Elf-Warrior's cast a vote for the person with the most votes with no explanation...

Edit: X'd with Eomer.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As to my previous post; I decided to go do something different, and leave the wolves and Ranger - however, I might go back to that later.

Is the deadline in the next hour, then? It's 5:00 PM for me right now.

[Eönwë]

Well, my suspicion of Mith has dissipated a bit. Mith, I don't suspect you as much any more. That is not to say you don't need monitoring, though. You seem to have settled down a bit. I think that there are far more suspicious people on this forum...


To correct my last, post, I will say that maybe a bandwaggon is forming, and against me!

Most suspicious person on my list:
The Elf-Warrior

Votes for me after two others have, and with no reason either. Then again, THE Ka seemed like she didn't think I was guilty, but then voted me.



Elf-Warrior, if you don't sayy someting to convinve me otherwise in the next 30 minutes, I think I might have to vote you.

edit: x-ed with Agan, Eomer and Shasta

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Votes so far:

Nilpaurion Felagund- Eönwë
Kitanna- Aganzir
Mithalwen- Elf-Warrior

Thinking over these three potential lynchees, I'm left leaning more strongly towards Elf-warrior.

Eönwë has struck me as a rather annoying in his playing style, but this is more along the line of personalities than hard suspicions, and people rubbing each other the wrong way happens in WW. I have been accused of the same myself, and I think I should know better than to vote people off based on pure dislike.

Kitanna's accusation of Aganzir somehow makes me more confident in Agan's innocence. I'm wary of Kitanna, but not anywhere ready to declare her lupine on that basis.

Which leaves Elf-warrior. Mith's willingness to vote for him does not, if he is a wolf, absolve her of wolvishness, but rather makes me even more likely to suspect her. Voting for a fellow wolf, even at serious risk of a bandwaggon, has precedent. On the other hand, Mith is generally astute enough that if innocent, I feel my suspicions confirmed by her sharing them.

This leaves me, I realise, in the odd state of reading into Mith's actions, regardless of her role, a confirmation of my own prejudices in the matter.

Unfortunately, there's nothing I can do about it at the moment...

Due to thunder and lightning and the consequent concern of my parents for their computer, I have to vote now. If the weather passes before the deadline, I'll be back to contribute, but I have no assurance of that.

++The Elf-Warrior

[Formendacil]

Just enough time to comment on posts missed since replying...

Eönwë will not be much missed by me if he should go, but I am rather surprised that such attention has accrued to him. Overall, he strikes me as more non-useful than clearly malevolent.