Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Aganzir]

But I rather stay up late and post, and just vote in the morning.

I didn't expect Kath to die. A kill that leaves practically no tracks it is, at least... Anyway, did the ranger protect her on night 2? It sounds likely but I don't think we can be completely sure of it. The person the ranger protected might have become a wolf (though in my opinion it would have been unfair to turn a known innocent), or the wolves might have wanted to make the ranger feel insecure about that person's innocence.

I feel pretty positive about Nilp's guilt. Yesterday I said he and Nerwen looked like fellow wolves, and I still think so, the more as Nerwen was revealed to be a wolf. Also, I wonder if I should start watching Eönwë a bit more closely now, since last night I had a dream he and Nilp were the wolves.

Anyway. I read through the thread during the night and made some notes (and if Nog even starts saying that I must be a wolf because an innocent wouldn't spend time on it when she can't be certain of her own survival, I'll get angry ).

Kitanna is bugging me. Her first post is too random to sound innocent. I don't follow her logic - what on earth is suspicious in being eg. the second to vote someone or the one whose vote causes a tie? But then in other posts she just looks so innocent that I have no idea what to think of her, and she voted for Nerwen on day 1 when there was a chance that she might have been lynched, given the amount of suspicion she had gained even then. I'm totally at loss.

Originally Posted by me

I think Nogrod has a good point about people backing off from suspecting Nerwen.

When I wrote this, I thought those (well not all of them, but it was a possibility) suspecting and later backing off from Nerwen might be wolves testing the ice (this was thought assuming that Nerwen was innocent), or fellow wolves who had agreed to suspect each other a little. So IC reasons or not, I'm wary of those. Especially Nilp, but that wasn't a surprise.

Nilp found everyone who voted for Mith on day 1 suspicious. He also thought Rikae's vote for Nerwen (with good reasons, in my opinion) was eyebrow-raising. I don't know if Nilp would be so obvious as to suspect everyone who suspected his fellow wolves, and it doesn't make me any more certain about Mith's guilt. However, his opinion of Rikae's vote makes me more certain of his own guilt.

The most suspicious thing about Form is that he keeps insisting at least one wolf voted for Sixth and bases his case on that.
Just the same way I could say that statistically it is likely that at least one wolf is among the four first persons on the player list (excluding myself), and analyse Nilp, Kitanna, Shasta and Boro, being confident that one of them is a wolf.

Somehow I feel uncomfortable with how Eomer seemed to be trying to assure EW was suspicious, not a wolf but maybe the cobbler, yesterday. It was pretty clear EW would be the easy lynch, and it looks like Eomer was just trying to find a reason to justify a vote for him.
Or maybe it's just that I didn't find EW particularly suspicious and didn't really understand why others did. Anyway, I don't like it anyway.

**

Innocent
Boro
Shasta
Nogrod
Rikae
Mith
Eönwë

Guilty
Nilp
Form
(Ooh see the Agan/Nilp/Form brawl is coming! A pity that Nerwen is dead already.)
Kitanna (I rather label her as guilty than innocent. Though I won't be voting for her yet.)

Neither
Eomer
Durelin
sally
Ka

**

Psst, Brinn, you still have Kath on the living list.

**

Off to sleep. Mr. Felagund, I will vote for you in five hours unless you come up with something witty.

edit: xed with Shasta

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Psst, Brinn, you still have Kath on the living list.

Whoops, my bad...

All fixed.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The most suspicious thing about Form is that he keeps insisting at least one wolf voted for Sixth and bases his case on that.
Just the same way I could say that statistically it is likely that at least one wolf is among the four first persons on the player list (excluding myself), and analyse Nilp, Kitanna, Shasta and Boro, being confident that one of them is a wolf.

You have to pardon my Philosophy Major/English Minor tendency that comes forward here, Agan, but as the former I am aware of the importance of exact wording and as the latter I'm aware of the nuance of exact words. If I may make a slight correction to this statement--which is essentially true enough--I do not keep insisting there is a wolf among the Sixth-voters. Rather, I kept bringing it up. More importantly, however, it is not that I was certain that a wolf was among those numbers, but rather that it seemed a very good possibility--and given the size of the village and the difficulty of a random shotgun approach to analysing gut feelings about everyone else, I chose to focus in on five particular voters.

In a similar way, I'm probably going focus on the Elf-warrior voters from yesterday. It's not that I think a wolf necessarily hides there (excepting, maybe, our newly-bitten wolf), for indeed it would be quite sensible for the wolves to avoid so obvious a bandwaggon, since they certainly knew EW was not one of their own, but I think it possible, nonetheless, that there is one, and focusing on the voters of the most numerous bandwaggon gives me a narrowed field to concentrate on--which is important, given the lack of endless time in my life. Unlike some people, I am working this summer.

On first impression, there is nothing remarkable about the EW voters--with the single exception that EW's innocence leads me to think, with little enough good reason, that Mith might be innocent.

More later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Votes from yestre DAY:
09:50pm Nilp - Eönwë (Eönwë - 1)
11:14pm Kit - Agan (Eönwë - 1, Agan - 1)
04:03am Erenor - EW (Eönwë - 1, Agan - 1, EW - 1)
05:11am THE Ka - Eönwë (Eönwë - 2, Agan - 1, EW - 1)
05:30am EW - Eönwë (Eönwë - 3, Agan - 1, EW - 1)
05:48am Form - EW (Eönwë - 3, Agan - 1, EW - 2)
05:58am Eomer - EW (Eönwë - 3, Agan - 1, EW - 3)
06:26am Shasta - Eönwë (Eönwë - 4, Agan - 1, EW - 3)
06:28am Eönwë - EW (Eönwë - 4, Agan - 1, EW - 4)
06:29am Rikae - EW (Eönwë - 4, Agan - 1, EW - 5)
06:33am Nerwen - EW (Eönwë - 4, Agan - 1, EW - 6)
06:54am sally - EW (Eönwë - 4, Agan - 1, EW - 7)
06:56am Boro - EW (Eönwë - 4, Agan - 1, EW - 8)
06:58am Agan - EW (Eönwë - 4, Agan - 1, EW - 9)
06:59am Nogrod - Kit (Eönwë - 4, Agan - 1, EW - 9, Kit - 1)

And from DAY 1:
09:49pm Form - Nogrod (Nogrod - 1)
12:50am Kit - Nerwen (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1)
05:29am sally - VI (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1, VI - 1)
05:51am Erenor - sally (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1)
06:18am Eomer - Mith (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 1)
06:25am Eönwë - Mith (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2)
06:28am Kath - Eönwë (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1)
06:35am THE Ka - Rikae (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1, Rikae - 1)
06:37am Durelin - Kit (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)
06:42am Boro - VI (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1, VI - 2, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)
06:48am Nilp - Eönwë (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 1, VI - 2, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 2, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)
06:50am Rikae - Nerwen (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 2, VI - 2, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 2, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)
06:54am EW - VI (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 2, VI - 3, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 2, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)
06:55am Nerwen - Eönwë (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 2, VI - 3, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 3, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)
06:56am Agan - VI (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 2, VI - 4, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 3, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)
06:59am Nogrod - VI (Nogrod - 1, Nerwen - 2, VI - 5, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 3, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

Interesting points:

• sally, Boro, and Agan voted for the same person two DAYs in the row, and they voted for the eventual lynchees.
  
  
• Agan said this toDAY:

  Somehow I feel uncomfortable with how Eomer seemed to be trying to assure EW was suspicious, not a wolf but maybe the cobbler, yesterday. It was pretty clear EW would be the easy lynch, and it looks like Eomer was just trying to find a reason to justify a vote for him.
  Or maybe it's just that I didn't find EW particularly suspicious and didn't really understand why others did. Anyway, I don't like it anyway. (Aganzir)

  Then why vote for him at the end of the DAY when he was sure to be lynched? Why didn't you join Nogrod in a token vote for . . . someone you actually suspect? This almost-casual throwing of votes does not innocent feel.
  
  If you are guilty of shedding innocent blood then you might as well accept your part in it. EW was suspicious, and were I online near the end of DAY I would have voted for him, too. Washing your hands, does not, again, innocent feel.
  
  Hmm, you did advocate for having Nerwen lynched yesterDAY, which . . . speaks for your innocence, interestingly, but how do you explain this?

  Me too. Though I'm not really sure - Nerwen posts while EW doesn't, but she's also so much more suspicious, yet she doesn't have any votes yet whereas EW has three. (Aganzir)

  You preferred to vote for a dead weight (your words) with three votes than for someone you think is guilty?!?! With 10 votes still left to cast then surely you and Boro could have done something. I mean, you've been suspecting her since 153. Surely if you had been serious in your accusation you would have done much better in trying to get her lynched? Or is that all you've got? (Then I might not get the enjoyment of getting ÷÷Nilpaurion Felagund** toDAY. )
  
  
• On a related note:
  

  [ I]t would be quite sensible for the wolves to avoid so obvious a bandwaggon, since they certainly knew EW was not one of their own [ . . . ] (FormenDAGA)

  I think that, considering the number of those who voted for EW (more than half the village, to be exact), there has to be at least one--excluding the dead Nerwen.
  
  
• I would bet my eightscore centuries-long life on Rikae's innocence, unless the Seer prove me wrong, which I doubt.

Notes:

• Re the NIGHT kill: perhaps the Ranger (dashing fellow that he is) dissuaded Hackers from attacking, erm, more energetic members of the community, and decided to go for a surer kill, albeit one less likely to bring the Seer down. If that's true then it may show that the Hackers are confident that the village, and perhaps even the Seer, is barking up the wrong tree . . .
  
  
• Someone changed sides toDAY. Remember that.

__________________
**Brinn the Almighty Arbitratress, those are division signs, and not my actual vote.

[Formendacil]

Hmmm... this is a most quiet village indeed. I haven't posted all that often, due to work and such, but I have a strange feeling, as though I'm in the upper rather than the lower ranks for posting on this thread... and this is the slowest start to a Day we've had yet.

Makes it that much harder to spot werewolves, of course, if I may be permitted to continue in the pessimistic vein I seem to have been characterised as following throughout this game.

Anyway, to my analysis of those who voted for Elf-warrior.

Nilp - Eönwë
Kitanna - Aganzir
Mithalwen - Elf-Warrior
Ka - Eönwë
Elf-Warrior - Eönwë
Form - Elf-Warrior
Eomer - Elf-Warrior
Shastanis Althreduin - Eönwë
Eönwë - Elf-Warrior
Rikae - Elf-Warrior
Nerwen - Elf-Warrior
Sally - Elf-Warrior
Boromir88 - Elf-Warrior
Aganzir - Elf-Warrior
Nogrod = Kitanna

Which makes for a total of 9 votes for Elf-Warrior, 4 votes for Eönwë, and 1 each for Aganzir and Kitanna, plus whoever abstained (Kath and Durelin for sure).

I sincerely hope, given the sheer number of EW votes, that I won't be considered odd for thinking there's a wolf hidden in them somewhere--although I'm actually inclined to think otherwise, given how absolutely bandwaggonish they are. Indeed, after Rikae's vote, they are all essentially tacked on: they neither assisted in getting EW dead (save insofar as they didn't increase the Eönwë count), nor did they come with much in the way of justification.

Nerwen, of course, is since proved a wolf, and she's the first of the four random votes that just got tacked on the in the last minutes. The fact that there's one known wolf in that number makes me suspect that another is unlikely to hide there (although there's alway the newly-bitten to consider), but the case could also be made that where one thought it safe to hide, another might also--especially since Nerwen was already garnering sufficient attention that another wolf doing likewise might well hope to lie hid.

I'll be back later with more thoughts... going to go stew over it for a while first.

[Nogrod]

It's getting 6AM here and I'm still awake... hopefully not for long anymore.

But let's take advantage of the fact that we now know Nerwen was a wolf! (how wrong was I!)

So how were different people related to her? I'd be most interested now by those who didn't make a point on her as all the rest of the people were talking about her. A fellow wolf would have stayed quiet or been careful with her/his points on Nerwen as one would not like to be associated with one who is "the talk of the town" like Nerwen was...

I'll try to look at this problematic tomorrow as I awake.

[Formendacil]

Thanks to a couple power failures (thank you, July thunderstorms), I am back somewhat later than I was planning, and without any analysis worked on, due to the absence of said power. What's more, my brain has gotten fuzzy and I'm ready for bed. Therefore, just a few thoughts rather than a longer analysis.

Mithalwen's early vote for EW absolves her of lupinity, from my point of view, since this was clearly not a wolf-on-wolf vote, though as a word of caution, it is possible that she knew that EW would be a prime suspect for the day, and cast her vote before would be a bandwaggon.

Formendacil: obviously, I'm innocent.

Eomer: gave EW that crucial third vote. Ancient history says that one should always be careful that EoR is not a wolf. I think that still holds, though it would be difficult to say exactly why I think that. If Eomer is a wolf, then Mithalwen very well could be too--banter between these two would be just the sort of Eomerian strategy I'd expect.

Eönwë : his vote gave EW the lead, but I'm not inclined to suspect him any more than I did yesterday. After all, he saved himself with his vote, which is the natural thing to do.

Rikae: Strikes me as only slightly suspicious. Her vote put EW as the clear front-runner, but there were still enough votes to swing in Eonwe's favour.

Nerwen: We already know this story.

Sally, Boromir88, and Aganzir all basically cast throwaway votes, and throwaway votes added to front-running bandwaggons are truly thrown away. With Sally I do not know what to make of this, having never played with her. With Boro, this is either a sign of his innocence (my current trend of thought) or else of his extreme cleverness (which is possible). I have not the presence of mind at this hour to discern which.

Agan's vote is highly similar to her first day's, in that it is clearly a throwaway, but while Day 1's vote met with my approval, this one does not. What was appropriate on Day 1 is not on Day 2. Now, part of this could just be Agan's style--I don't know--but I'm less confident of her than I was yesterday.



And, I know he didn't vote for EW, but I'll add a brief thought on Nogrod anyway. His vote, the very last, feels extra-thrown away, but I'm inclined to think this an indicator of innocence, since he makes himself quite visible indeed with this vote. Conversely, however, if Kitanna turns out to be a wolf, then I think this is damning evidence of his own guilt, since the fact he was harping on her so early would seem to be the sign of a pre-planning cover.



That's it for tonight... won't be back until about the final hour, probably, unless I get on very briefly in the morning.

[Kitanna]

I only have a little bit to post before bed. That leaves me time to skim and attempt to grasp a little bit of the end of Day2.

So judging by the voting record and what little I saw, EW was dropped (in some people's opinions) as dead weight. Rikae's vote doesn't come as much of a surprise, neither does Eonwe's (self-preservation and all, it appeared they were tied at the time). Of course this is really only what I've gathered from about twenty minutes of speed reading. I will be on soon after I wake up to do something more in depth. Perhaps I'll see what I can about those who voted for Eonwe seeing as only myself and Nogrod voted outside EW and Eonwe.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

You have to pardon my Philosophy Major/English Minor tendency that comes forward here, Agan

You are pardoned.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Then why vote for him at the end of the DAY when he was sure to be lynched? Why didn't you join Nogrod in a token vote for . . . someone you actually suspect? This almost-casual throwing of votes does not innocent feel.

Why should I have? My vote would have been a throwaway regardless of who I voted. And if I had voted for Nerwen, you would now be accusing me of trying to avoid the EW bandwagon in order not to look plain wolfish. Tsk tsk, come up with a better case.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Washing your hands, does not, again, innocent feel.

Explain how I am washing my hands. I am guilty of not finding him a likely wolf but wanting him dead anyway, and at least I haven't noticed I should be trying to wriggle out of it.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Surely if you had been serious in your accusation you would have done much better in trying to get her lynched?

I was so confident about her guilt that I thought it would be easy to get her lynched any day, whereas non-posters are not easy to lynch later on when lynches to waste are growing scarce.

++ Nilpaurion Felagund