Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Rikae]

I'm sorry, everybody - RL things have stolen all my time and mental energy today. I'm going to vote based purely on a hunch:

++Formendacil

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm sorry, everybody - RL things have stolen all my time and mental energy today. I'm going to vote based purely on a hunch:

++Formendacil

GASP. WE MUST VOTE HER FOR BEING UNHELPFUL!

plusplusRikae

.....

[Boromir88]

However I have skimmed again and it strikes me that not only is Nogrod being quietly amnipulative but he is being quiet.... normally you can't look away for a moment without there being more analysis.~Mith

But Nogrod is a loud wolf too. This seems like it's kind of shaky, Mith. Also, something Nogrod makes a good point about is to look at those who had very little interaction with Nerwen. I'd also say to look at the one's who had a neutral/more defensive view of Nerwen.

Nerwen came under heat in Day 1, but by Day 2 everyone thought she was just a victim of the wolves. And to relieve some of that pressure I can definitely imagine at least one of her packmates trying to push the "victim of the wolves" defense; or not even having contact with her at all, to try and not have so much interaction.

...you can say all you want about someone, but it all comes down to voting, whether you really want the person you suspect lynched or not. Boromir and Aganzir, as I've said before, did not follow through their suspicion by voting.~Nilp

True, I won't speak for Agan, but all I'll say is at least today she is one of the most innocent looking people. As for me, if I vote for Nerwen it's a wasted vote and I know I'd get suspected for not wanting "innocent" blood on my hands. I already said I don't want to see Eonwe lynched, EW's fate was already sealed, and so my vote turns out to be a waste no matter what. Hence why I said (inaccurately quoted by Durelin) "I'll be gunning for you tomorrow." I'll bring down all hell to make sure someone I think is very suspicious gets lynched, and I won't be happy until that person is lynched. Ask Form.

Nilp's non-vote is worrying and Mith's vote for Nogrod is too. I'll be back again once I read a little more thorougly this time. (When I said look at Nerwen's posts I didn't expect you to take it so seriously! )

[Nogrod]

The votes this far...

Aganzir -> Nilp (following a long hunt...)
Mith -> Nogrod ("I seldom regret voting for him and often regret not following through when I do suspect him")
Rikae -> Formendacil (on a hunch)
Nilp -> null vote
Kitanna -> Eönwë (he stands out the most)
Eomer -> Nilp 2 ("Oh come on, Nilp. At least vote for yourself." But there were rows already before that)
Shasta -> Eomer (to end the Day's row between the two)

Huh...

[Eönwë]

My internet is dying, so I had better vote quickly.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

I will explain when I can...

[Nogrod]

I'd be ready to vote Mith toDay. She acts not in her normal way and with her I'd say that is a sign of something that is not for the good.

Kitanna seems to be an obsession to me in this game. Somehow she manages to look quite innocent post by post but still I just can't rid myself from the idea she's a wolf. All good and nice with her posting but then again toDay her vote on Eönwë looks like the easy way a wolf might go for... It doesn't help my position to realise I myself am a bit worried about Eönwë as well (have been from Day1) but Kit's vote bothers me as a safe one.

Rikae seems to have her hands full and she has been unprecedently low key on this - but so have I myself and thence I can't blame her for that. But I'm a bit worried.

Shasta's sudden burst of activity raises an eyebrow (as someone already mentioned) but the same goes for Eönwë as well throughout the game.

Nilp and the Ka are ones I need to look closer as I seem to suspect them with points others have made. I'll try to see if I can get a hold of them myself now.

I tend to trust the judgements of Aganzir and Boro due to their record this far and the sense they have spoken.

[Formendacil]

Well, catching up on this thread took all of twenty-odd minutes--much longer than I expected on the basis of posting from the start of the Day. Good to see though.

To Boromir's highly relevant remark that people aren't paying enough attention to Nerwen and her relationships, pre-death, I must admit this is a very valid criticism, but in my own defence I was quite tired and more than a little forgetful last night, by the time I got back online after my power failures. That being said, I've still got no thoughts on who Nerwen might have been wolfing with, in the basis of the Nerwen posts. It is my general assumption that most players of this game (most, not all) are adept enough to play somewhere in that vague zone between mentioning a fellow wolf and drawing attention to a fellow wolf, and Nerwen certainly struck me as one of the line-walking capable.

Not that there's nothing out there to indicate her comrades, just that I'm not confident enough in my ability to spot it bother digging with a single half-hour left in the Day, and nothing leaping out at me.

What is leaping out at me is the randomness of Rikae's vote for me--natural, given that it's got my name in bold letters and there's a certain rush that comes from being voted for, but I really must say that her complete lack of reasoning, even if grounded in real life reasons, is almost insulting. I'd like to hear what reasons people have for killing me, even if they are ludicrous.

Much like Eomer, I'm finding myself vastly more confident today about Mith's innocence, though for different reasons. As for Eomer himself, however, I'm in a quandary of doubt based on this quote:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm not constructing a logical argument to demonstrate my innocence. All I'm saying is that if I was a wolf, I'd be gentler in my public dealings. I am not trying to convince you -- that would be futile -- but perhaps some other folk in the village remember me as a colder, more dismissive wolf, rather than the loud, fight-seeking chap I'm showing myself to be here today. It's not general; it's particular to me. Frankly, I don't care if anyone buys it; I'm not hiding my thoughts, and it's way less pressure to play as an innocent.

Now, unlike Nilp, I'm inclined to agree with this statement of Eomer's inclinations, but like Nilp, it gives me great cause for concern. While I'm willing to concede that Eomer has become a vastly more stable wolf than he originally was, I'm also entirely willing to credit him with presence of mind and strength of character to play the part of the bouncy, random ordo when he's actually the wolf. If he has indeed become a more cool, dismissive wolf, then this would bespeak a cunning and ability to plan that could easily translate into an act--as the loud, fight-seeker.

That being said, however, until he posted the above, I was feeling more sure about Eomer's innocence than I have all game. Clearly, other people are getting suspicious today, based on the votes, and I'm inclined to wonder if maybe Eomer is our freshly-bitten wolf.

More to come... must refresh, as there are sure to be more posts by now, and to recollect my thoughts.

[Formendacil]

Okay, thoughts on the votes thus far...

Mith's vote for Nogrod strikes a chord with me, if only because her reasoning articulates so well my thoughts about him. Namely, "I seldom regret voting for him and often regret not following through when I do suspect him." Nogrod is a player much like SPM was of old, and Boro is today: so formidable a player (or just a character... SPM had horrid luck, quite often) that one is pre-suspicious of him just on that basis. Nonetheless, I've been moderately suspicious of Nogrod since my castaway vote on Day 1, and I'm tempted to join Mith in this gesture.



On another topic, the anti-Nilp bids force me to reexamine Master Felagund. I think that the two of us had such a like attitude on Day 1 that I've ignored him since, seeing nought suspicious, but this is not a good idea, to just ignore someone. Nilp has been off of both the successful bandwaggons the past two Days, and has been noisy without making too much trouble.

The question, though, is whether is because he's clueless and affable or because he's clever and distracting. All my instincts lean toward the former, but recalling that I am over-inclined to agree with Nilp's mentality, I cannot but wonder if I might be more susceptible than most to his deceptions.


Definitely thinking of voting Nogrod... but am racked with scruples.

[Formendacil]

Boromir's defence of Nogrod against Mith's vote causes me to question myself, and it brings back to mind good reason to think Nogrod innocent--his quietness. Recollecting that this is (I take it on faith) the result of having his father present, it is not necessarily lynch-worthy.

On the other hand... Boromir's feeling of Eomer's guilt makes me doubt my own affirmation of Eomer's guilty-feeling quality, simply because I consider Boro fully capable of swaying us into the death of an ordo--or a gifted.

In this dazed state, I'm about ready to vote Boromir, but I'm not sure there's any good reason or point to doing that.

If nought else, I agree with Boromir that "everyone is dazed and confused." I certainly am... and becoming more the more I read.

[Formendacil]

18 minutes left of forum time as I start this post, nine left on my watch, and the vote count stands as follows:

Aganzir -> Nilp (following a long hunt...)
Mith -> Nogrod ("I seldom regret voting for him and often regret not following through when I do suspect him")
Rikae -> Formendacil (on a hunch)
Nilp -> null vote
Kitanna -> Eönwë (he stands out the most)
Eomer -> Nilp 2 ("Oh come on, Nilp. At least vote for yourself." But there were rows already before that)
Shasta -> Eomer
Eönwë -> Nilp

3 for Nilp, 1 each for Nogrod, Formendacil, Eönwë, and Eomer.

I waver between Eomer and Nogrod. There's case enough against Nilp, but I cannot say I am convinced enough by it to join a front-running bandwaggon.

I would rather vote Nogrod than Eomer, but the Nogrod case just isn't grounded in a decent reasoning, but simply gut feeling. At least with Eomer, the gut feeling is willing to go either way, but I feel I have a real argument for voting.

Enough indecision.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wonder if everyone will show up today. Almost time.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Don't bother with Boromir today, Form. No-one will take that up. Think on it more tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

Even if I disagree with Form's deductions on me (naturally) I think he's an ordo.

Eomer looks like a good candidate for being the new wolf (as someone said already). His vote toDay is quite a scary one. Another suspect for being turned a wolf toDay is Shasta (his sudden burst of activity).

But those things will be for those to consider who live on to Day 5 or 6 or something. Now we still have two original wolves around and need to get them first.

My top suspects would be then:
Mith
Kitanna
Nilp
Eönwë
Rikae

About in that order.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Eomer looks like a good candidate for being the new wolf (as someone said already). His vote toDay is quite a scary one. Another suspect for being turned a wolf toDay is Shasta (his sudden burst of activity).

Scary?

And I don't see this about me or Shasta being turned because we finally got into a good argument. Surely the turned wolf would be very careful to stay as he/she was before?

[Boromir88]

By the spread of the voting it seems like everyone is dazed and confused. None of those who have received votes seem all that suspicious to me. I take back what I said about Nilp's vote (yes I've managed to change my mind in the last 20 minutes about that). I disagree with the decision to not vote, because I don't know why anyone would not vote (wolf included). Kath had a good reason to withhold her vote, Nilp's been around and participating today...

I guess the most suspicious one (who has received a vote) is Eomer. I've been pretty silent about him, and that's mostly because I didn't know what to think about him. He looks innocent, but he's a very scary player. There was very little interactiong between Eomer and Nerwen, also his behaviour here late is very strange. I mean really he's just sounding kind of crazy (I'm referring to his post where he voted for Nilp), that's always a bad sign. As someone else said (maybe Durelin? - I've read way too much in the last 30 or so minutes, I think I've had an overload), I'm starting to see a phantom-ness boldness in Eomer.

Alright, but Mith is the one who is raising the alarms here. Her vote for Nogrod seems just really out of the blue. (I guess you could say that about my suspicions on Eomer and Mith as well though). Nogrod's very dangerous, and he's completely fooled me before, but so far I feel he's pretty trusty. What's really odd about the vote is the reasoning too. I guess to borrow a word for it...it's "forced." It seems like she just chose Nogrod out of the blue and tried to say "well he's quiet and I always regret it when I don't vote for him."

Now, maybe Nogrod is being more quiet than usual, but Nogrod is an extremely loud wolf and he's not afraid to talk whether he's a wolf or not. Also, I just got done reading a few of his pretty long posts, so he's probably not as active as usual, but to me he's still looking pretty loud! (No offense Nogrod).

Edit: x'ed with every post up to 326

[Boromir88]

Oh and something else I wanted to say (and look at) before I decide on who to vote for is I wonder if while Agan and I were discussing how we wanted to go after Nerwen if one of her buddies was around to prevent that and make EW's fate inevitable?

Going back to take a quick look back at yesterday, those who voted for EW whilst Agan and I were trying to see if lynching Nerwen was a possibility...

Eonwe
Rikae
Nerwen
Sally

Nerwen is obviously dead and a wolf, and I'll be captain obvious again by saying she's not going to vote for herself. I wonder if another wolf though wanted to make EW's lynch inevitable while there were still enough people to bandwagon against Nerwen.

Rikae looks the most innocent, as she had been after EW this entire time and plus I believe her when she said that it's time we put the EW thing to rest.

This would leave Sally and Eonwe, and I may have to start reconsidering my thoughts on Eonwe.

[Durelin]

I'm here and waiting to vote either Shasta or Mith.