Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Kitanna]

++Eonwe
I haven't really uncovered anything else and Eonwe stands out the most to me.

[satansaloser2005]

You would think so, wouldn't you wolf boy?


Well isn't that just wizard. We lost our seer. I'll go through her posts and stuff later, but for now I need a nap. Be back later. (Oh, and I'll put up a vote tally then for anyone who's interested.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Cute, Sally dear.

I just ran back and looked through all twelve of Durelin's posts...

#25 - Purely IC first post.

#60 - Amused by Eomer. Amused by Boro. Likes Form. Thinks Kitanna is boring. Amused by Sixth. "Nogrod's role is just too Nogrod." Wants to see how long Nilp keeps his role up. Amused by EW. Laughs at Eonwe's first post.

#106 - Loves how people create conspiracy theories through the banter. Mentions that Nerwen coined the Agan/Nilp/Form brawl. Thinks Nerwen to be an easy lynch. Bothered by Kitanna. Votes Kitanna.

#114 - Adds Nerwen to the Agan/Nilp/Form brawl.

-------------------------------------

#252 - Apologizes for missing a day. Wonders how EW was lynched. Wants to look at Kitanna, Eonwe, Mith, and Ka with regards to Nerwen. Thinks Nogrod and Boro haven't been paid enough attention. Likes Nogrod's vote, and likes Boro's day 1 attitude. Thinks Eonwe is a possible spammer.

#290 - Save.

#295 - Professes to be clueless. Thinks that Rikae, Kitanna, Aganzir, and Boro are innocent, (bit of a turnaround on Kitanna here) because they were consistently against Nerwen. Thinks Rikae is the most innocent and Boro the least out of this group. However, thinks Boro and Agan seemed a bit "neat", and remarks that both their three top suspects were the same (EW, Sixth, Nerwen) and that two were lynched and the third a wolf, and that neither Boro nor Agan ever voted for Nerwen. Mentions Boro's remark, "Nerwen, I'll be gunning for you tomorrow." as conveniently placed.

Thoughts on others:

Eonwe probably innocent because of his interaction with Nerwen.

Nogrod and Eomer "sorta defended Nerwen but not really". Thinks Nogrod the more obvious of the two.

Nilp was pretty neutral about Nerwen.

Sally also held a middle ground policy regarding Nerwen.

Shasta (hey, that's me!) kept what he said about Nerwen as neutral observation and put Nerwen on an innocent list with Mith.

Mith, Kat, and Form all avoided talking about Nerwen for the most part.

Thinks that based on the wolf kills, we probably have a Nogwolf.

#298 - Puts up a suspicious list.

Shasta
Mith
Sally
Eomer
Nogrod

Likes Shasta with his arguments of principles; thinks he might be a wolf.

Says Mith and Sally feel slippery.

Is bothered by Eomer.

"It just seems so right for Nogrod to be a wolf right now."

Still thinks Eonwe is cheesy.

#309 - Replies to Mith, correcting an impression about which post she paraphrased. Wishes Shasta and Eomer would just duel already.

#316 - Keeps thinking of McCaber as a wolf kill. Thinks Nogrod would be the one to take down the quiet ones.

#337 - Waiting to vote Shasta or Mith, never says why.

#342 - Thinks Eomer was probably important from the way he was acting. Votes Mith.

Thoughts -

With the number of times Durelin was suspicious of Nogrod "just because", I have to wonder if she didn't dream him and find that he was a wolf. And the turnaround on Kitanna (suspicion Day 1, followed by nothing, then thinks her innocent Day 3), makes her seem another likely Seer dream.

Edit: Removed an open bold tag.

[Nogrod]

I do agree with your interpretation of the turn-around with Kitanna, Shasta. And I might be dropping my case against her at the moment as Dury voted for Kit on Day 1 and then on Day3 thought her innocent because she voted for Nerwen on Day1. That could be enough and we might think she probably dreamt of Kitanna on her first Night of dreaming. But why did she say then in the beginning of Day3 that she wished to look more closely at Kitanna, Eönwë, Mith & The Ka? And why was her only defence of her innocence the fact she voted for Nerwen on Day1?

I'm not too sure we can wash Kitanna free with this evidence... but why does Shasta wish to make us think like that, overdoing Dury's "release" of Kitanna which is doubtful in the first place when one watches the evidence. She thought her innocent along with Rikae, Aganzir and Boro because of their votes. She didn't say she was especially innocent - on the contrary she said Rikae looked the most innocent of the four...

The next thing I'd like to bring forwards is this (nothing to do with Dury's status as the seer I guess but we might think this a good advice as we now know she was innocent and thence wasn't pulling our legs)

Originally Posted by Dury

Mith, Ka, and Formendacil all seemed to have avoided talking about Nerwen at all, really.

Exactly. I'm still thinking Mith is a wolf and The Ka might be one as well - or then Form but somehow I'm feeling he's not a wolf.

Dury's post #298 is really a baffling experience. Here it is in it's entirety:

Originally Posted by Dury

Alright, some conclusions from my ramblings:

Vaguely in order of suspicion (vaguely because I am incredibly indecisive):

Shasta
Mith
Sally
Eomer
Nogrod

Aganzir makes good points about Nilp I guess, but I'm just not feeling it.

I really like Shasta right now, with his arguing of principles and such, which is why I think he might well be a wolf.

Mith and Sally feel slippery. It seems like they're trying to be...nice.

Eomer bothers me. He's channeling phantom-ness.

It just seems so right for Nogrod to be a wolf right now.

Sally - Eonwe seems cheesy...he seems to me like he's trying too hard to be surprised at things, to be interested in things, to look like he's doing something...you know, bad acting.

Now Shasta is her top suspect but still she thinks she likes him "right now" and thence he must be a wolf! Is this the seer notice? Making a kind of contradictory statement to make us realise she points to him? Anyway there seems to be no easy hints in her posting... So maybe this is a more cryptic way of doing it?

In the end she was ready to vote for either Shasta or Mith. Now that paraphrasing leads one to wonder whether she had dreamt of neither even if she voted for Mith (whom I believe is a wolf) in the end.

It is just too cryptic as adding my latest deductions she should have voted for Shasta.... (so there goeas my theory)

Or then she was more careful we think she was but got bad luck being killed even if there was no point in her suspicions... Somehow I just can't believe it fully...

Edit: Corrected a host of typos & added the last sentence

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

With the number of times Durelin was suspicious of Nogrod "just because", I have to wonder if she didn't dream him and find that he was a wolf.

I'd like to look at Durelin's posts myself to see what I can draw from this theory. Durelin was never out right with her suspicions. Probably to avoid detection from the hackers and to avoid suspicion from the village. If she did dream of Nogrod as a hacker it would make sense why she never voted or cast "damning" evidence onto him. That would have ended her life sooner or drawn her out so she had to reveal her role before she was ready.

But Durelin may have had bigger suspicions she didn't vocalize, but did dream of and Nogrod was nothing more than a suspicion and she didn't dream of him. Since Durelin is now dead it's all guess work as to who she dreamed of and when.

But what about Shasta and Mith as her voting candidates for yesterday's vote? Could she have voted for one of them and found one of them a wolf? If that's the case she might have dreamt of Mith. Or those were two she wanted to dream of and never got the chance. If that's the case maybe it put the hackers on edge that someone was on to them.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not too sure we can wash Kitanna free with this evidence... but why does Shasta wish to make us think like that, overdoing Dury's "release" of Kitanna which is doubtful in the first place when one watches the evidence.

"Overdoing"? I simply stated a thought.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shasta

"Overdoing"? I simply stated a thought.

Originally Posted by Shasta

(Dury) Thinks that Rikae, Kitanna, Aganzir, and Boro are innocent, (bit of a turnaround on Kitanna here) because they were consistently against Nerwen
...
the turnaround on Kitanna (suspicion Day 1, followed by nothing, then thinks her innocent Day 3), makes her seem another likely Seer dream.

Now you were clearly implying she was her dream but from what I saw that is not such an easy thing (refer to my earlier post)... But anyways I'm not wishing to follow this Kit -path toDay so much as there is the chance you're right (or more potently - Dury was right) as I'm wishing to see Mith lynched toDay. I'll bet a nice sum for her being a wolf.

[Formendacil]

Durelin's death does not make things any easier, that's for sure, though presumably her suspicions give us more to go on than most dead people's, as she had some actual knowledge and wasn't out to mislead the village--though if she attempted to mislead the wolves, we'll have to be careful with our weeding.

I'm inclined to agree with the theory that Kitanna is most likely innocent. Durelin suspected her on Day 1, and she would thus have been the most obvious candidate for a dream that night. Though not conclusive on that evidence, the ensuing turn-around strengthens considerably the probability that Durelin found her innocent.

Together with our self-declared ranger, who although definitely not conclusively innocent has a case that is close enough to certain that I'm willing to take the leap on it. If Eomer is not the real hunter, then we either have a very quiet and cunning who bides his/her time, or else we have a hunter who posts only near the middle of the day. Either/both are possible, but I'm inclined not to think such about either.

As another random thought... Mith's near brush with death yesterday should not absolve her of lupinity. All too often, I think in these games, the runner-up in a voting race can slip back under the radar the next day, completely ignored.

I'm also still suspicious of Nogrod, and the more so as we keep cutting down innocents, but I have nothing to back this up, except Durelin's inclusion of him on her suspicion list--albeit at the very end, which suggests she did not dream about him at all, although I suppose there's the faint chance than when she listed them "in order of suspicion" that she put the most suspicious last... but I'm really not confident in that possibility.