Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Pretty simply, it seemed to be that both you and Form were extremely indecisive on who to vote for, saying "well, that person seems suspicious, but then so does that person, but I'm not saying that person's innocent either...

I think your description fits Form but I thought I was pretty open about voting either you or Mith and preferring Mith as I was more convinced of her guilt.

Yes I thought Form -wagon was a stupid idea at that moment and it may have made me vote a minute or too earlier just to bring the voting back to the track. I do not say Form couldn't be a wolf but at that moment I thought we had a wolf in our hands and one just doesn't want to lose those opportunities. Luckily you three last voters were not able to twist that vote...

I mean I do disagree on this principle with you: if you have a wolf, lynch her/him immediately. Everything can happen and nothing is more unpredictable than a game of WW. So you may not get a second chance.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you may not get a second chance.

Originally Posted by Shasta

And who's to say there'd be another chance to lynch Form today?

[Formendacil]

Well, I hope no one will take it as utterly amiss if I rage a little at the sheer idiocy of last night's bandwaggon. It struck me as one thing to garner suspicion over the course of the day, get a few votes, and maybe look lynchable by evening... but to have this (not including Rikae's foreseeable vote) bandwaggon come roaring at me in the last few minutes of the Day, putting me not so much into a second place position as a position just as liable for death as Mith's... may I say that, from a subjective viewpoint anyway, I feel very hard-done by.

Mind you, I hardly expect to get away scot-free today... after my warnings yesterday that the second-placers of a bandwaggon race should not be let off lightly the following day, I'd be a hypocrite to say otherwise... but I really would like to know what came out of that yesterday.

Shasta, for reasons already expressed by Nogrod, does indeed strike me as quite malevolent at the moment, and even if I had not been the personal recipient of his voting, I think I'd be at least a little concerned. To come at me, out of the blue, like that in the last moments as a bandwaggon was endangering [Mith[/b]... well, it looks really bad.

On the other hand, I spent most of the Night cycle ready to declaim him as the Cobbler on account of that, so I'm not 100% ready to call him lupine today, but I do think him an excellent candidate.

Really, the only reason I'm alive and Mith isn't is complete chance. A roll of the dice the wrong way, and you'd be spending a THIRD Day trying to lynch her to figure out her guilt...

Still, with yet another RL innocent death, we're having to face the numbers... but having glanced at Brinn's last Mod-post, we're not as bad as I thought. We're down to 9 people, 2 of whom are wolves, which means that the village can afford to lose another innocent, which I am terribly afraid will happen, since if I am the central subject of speculation and voting, you will kill another innocent.

[Formendacil]

Oh, and the thought also occurs to me...

Sally clearly had Mith pegged as one of the wolves. Would she have tried to save her otherwise? Would she, in fact, have made me this much more conspicuous if she thought there were a good chance I was a wolf? Bad enough one wolf is on the block... why make it certain another is. Far better, in such a case, to start the Nogrod bandwaggon (assuming him to be innocent) that enough of us were rambling about... though I suppose that would have been too late at that point. Still, bad enough Mith was clearly close to death... why make it two-wolf race?

That being said, I'm rather ashamed to be looking for the help of a dead cobbler to prove my innocence.

[Eönwë]

Wow. I never thought that would happen. And the cobbler being killed.

There eally have been too many RL deaths so far.


Ps. This is a quiet day.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Aganzir and Shasta look very evil and wolvish to me.

As has been pointed out, Shasta showed no suspicion of Formendacil at any stage. He even showed willingness to conspire with him to lynch Nogrod. Then he votes Formendacil right at the end. This appears to have been a desperate attempt at an unlikely save for Mithalwen.

Aganzir, though, I had not suspected at all until just now, when I read the events of Day 4 more carefully. I have some references.

p400: Aganzir defends Shasta. She really, really thinks he's no wolf.

p445: ''I'll eat my hat with feathers and all if neither Mith nor Nog is a wolf, and today I'd prefer trying Nog''

Yet she chose not to gain the certainty, and voted Formendacil.

p464: Decides that our chances are better with Form than with Mith. Simply because another candidate has 2 votes, she is deciding not to lynch Mith or Nogrod, and thus achieve certainty.

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There's also one more thing about Shasta, from quite a while ago:

p144:

Suspicious: Eomer, Eonwe

Sort-Of Suspicious: Kath, Sally, Elf-warrior

Mediocre: Everyone not mentioned above or below this line -----------------------

Not-So Suspicious: Nogrod

Not Suspicious: Mith, Nerwen

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Mith and Nerwen, eh?

[Aganzir]

I think Kitanna could be a wolf.

Her first post looks forced. I don't know... I guess I first seized on it because it reminds me so much of how a wolfish me could post on day 1.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Sometimes in the nothing the most is said.

I fail to see what you are referring to. Your response to Nerwen meets the criteria of communicating a little with a fellow wolf so as not to look like team members.

On day 1 she thought the A/N/F brawl brought up by Nerwen was moderately suspicious, but at the same time she found Nerwen herself moderately suspicious, too. She was inclined to think there was one or two hackers among us three (me, Nilp and Form, that is), and I really fail to see why. If we have talked to one another on day 1, why on earth does it make us hackers? She was suspicious also of EW who was quick to jump to his own defense, and Sixth, based on gut feeling, who advocated voting for Nerwen, probably IC.
Then she voted for Nerwen because she posted often but sayid little. In her defense I must say, though, that her vote post didn't look like she was trying to discourage others to vote for Nerwen, although she wasn't trying to encourage voting for her either.

I don't really know why a hacker would vote a fellow hacker as early as on day 1. Of course it would be a good plan since few would believe they actually did it, but it's risky as well. And Kitanna has been pretty suspicious even before the new wolf was turned (actually she's been less suspicious after that).
Except... On day 2 she asks Shasta (who was talking about Kath) if he thinks there would be wolf-on-wolf votes so early. The improbability of wolf-on-wolves on day 1 should make Kitanna look more innocent if/when Nerwen was to be revealed a wolf.

Originally Posted by Kit

A worrying truth indeed. Nerwen's posts are one liners, ICs, with an occasional post that clarifies or half-heatedly accuses.

Would a wolf continue suspecting her, especially as there are others who do it also?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Most suspicious
Eonwe- Voted not long after Eomer for Mith based on her vote for Sally who was the first to vote for Sixth
Boro- Next vote for Sixth
Elf-warrior- Third vote for Sixth
Agan-Tied Eonwe and Sixth, though a tie doesn't result in a double-lynch a tie remains a tie. If nothing else it confuses and muddles things especially close to deadline.
This is based purely on when and how they voted for, not their reasoning behind it.

Agan & Eonwe's look the most suspicious to me based on timing. Though I'm going to read through their posts before deciding fully how I feel about either.

Then there's this, the most suspicious of the "bandwagoners". Next vote for someone? Third vote for someone? Ties someone? Ties are confusing? What on earth is suspicious about that? Honestly, I can't see that as innocent reasoning.
I think it was Nog who had a good point that that's an easy way to add pressure on those who are suspected a little already (Eönwë and me, mainly).
Eönwë is suspicious because his vote is so neat and tidy, comes out of the blue and right after Eomer's vote. And votes for Mith, mind you.
I am suspicious because I accused Sixth of joking suspicions (which, as I already explained, weren't apparently such), I seemed to have a case on Nerwen rather than Sixth, if Sixth was a wof he would (in Kit's opinion) have returned instead of disappearing, and I base my case on Sixth's only post (what did other Sixth-voters base their cases on, then?).

On day 2 she votes for me, despite feeling more confident in mischief on Nerwen's part than when voting for her the previous day, but not feeling confident enough. My suspicions (against Sixth) feel wrong and don't make sense. Or was it just because I was going after Nerwen that day myself?

I have no idea about Shasta anymore - good points were brought up about his yesterday behaviour, so I will treat Shasta as a possible wolf now in relation to Kit.

On day 3 Kitanna comments on Eomer/Shasta row, saying neither of them smells like a rose, but she finds Eomer slightly stranger-looking and explains it "Simply because of my, as he called it, colorful WW past with him."
Later she wonders if Shasta and Eomer could have staged their row. Maybe, and if not, Eomer looks worse to her. Because of their colourful past, and his behaviour raises her eyebrow. Now, if Shasta was turned on night 3, this makes Kitanna look worse. She tries not to defend Shasta, but doesn't really accuse Eomer either - it's rather that she adds her vote for the case "look at Eomer before you look at Shasta".
She's also inclined to vote for Eönwë, who's "up to no good", and later votes for him. Eönwë went after Mith.

Originally Posted by Kit

I'd like to look at Durelin's posts myself to see what I can draw from this theory.

This worries me. That myself. "I want to go through Durelin's posts and see that nothing that incriminates my fellows too much is revealed!"

Originally Posted by Kit

If she did dream of Nogrod as a hacker it would make sense why she never voted or cast "damning" evidence onto him. That would have ended her life sooner or drawn her out so she had to reveal her role before she was ready.

I'm pretty sure Nog isn't a hacker now... And Kit just explains how it's possible that Dur found Nog a hacker although she didn't cast "damning" evidence onto him.

She is inclined to believe, though, that Durelin dreamed or was planning to dream of Mithwolf, which caused her death. But if the wolves thought it likely that the seer had dreamed of one of them, and especially if that one was Mith, they could well have decided to sacrifice her in order for others to look better.
Or then she wanted to go through Durelin's posts herself so as to be among the first to suspect that she dreamt of Mithwolf, and therefore look better.

Kit votes for Mith. In response to Eomer's wondering why he wasn't killed she says it points at Shasta being a wolf. But, in my opinion, it can also point at wolves being afraid of Eomer and wanting to frame Shasta.

**

I won't have time to go through Form's posts, at least not to this extent, today. I'll have to leave in less than an hour and won't probably have a chance to come back.

Anyway, right now Kitanna is my top suspect. Though I have been so wrong about everyone that I don't really know how much I should trust my judgement anymore.

Next I'm planning to go back to day 1 and see if I could find at least some innocents and hopefully also a wolf given their interaction with Nerwen and Mith. I dare a guess that Mith was a wolf from the beginning.

[Boromir88]

Well, well... If Boro is still alive after a Day or two I say you people should lynch him... Just an idea...~Nogrod

I hate when people say this, because it's just an easy way to set someone up if they're still alive. It's like saying "If Boro isn't dead by Night 6 he's a wolf, because the wolves wouldn't leave an innocent Boro alive for that long." Very clever way of setting someone up, and coming from you Nogrod?

I want to look at the last couple days of posts between Nogrod and Mith. Nogrod is not shy of lynching a fellow wolf if he thinks it will benefit him, and Mith isn't shy of sacrficing herself if she thinks she's dead meat.

I highly suspect a wolf in the Formendacil bandwagon.

Rikae
Sally
Agan
Shasta

It's interesting that sally voted for to make it a 3-way tie between Mith, Shasta, and Form. What does this say about Form and Shasta? Form said he feels ashamed by using the cobbler to argue his own innocence, but this could reveal something. I would say without question sally believed Mith was a wolf, and why she's saved Mith (or tried to) in her voting. But did she also think Shasta was a wolf too? If she's trying to save Mith and thinks Shasta is innocent wouldn't she vote Shasta? Maybe she thought both were wolves and she was trying to save both? Or maybe being the cobbler she just wanted to have a 3-way tie to mess things up even more.

I also think that if one wolf is trying to save their buddy, then the last wolf is trying to be the one who survives and tries votes for Mith, trying to look innocent. This would point to Kitanna, Eonwe, Nogrod, and Form.

edit: crossed with Agan