Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Formendacil]

And here I thought I'd have reams to catch up on..

Well, I'm both flattered and a little surprised, Rikae, that you've apparently decided to drop the "Form is a wolf" thought for the moment, although given the low postage today, that might just be a case of "have not yet mentioned", since you were clearly responding to the general trend of "Shasta and Again: which is a wolf thought?"

Myself, I'm very much inclined to think Shasta lupine, and while it may be personal grudge getting in the way of more reasoned thinking, at this point I do not foresee voting for anyone else--barring perhaps another out-of-the-blue bandwaggon against me.

I agree that if Shasta is a wolf, then Aganzir very probably isn't... although she's certainly looking suspicious in the interim. If, perhaps, Shasta isn't the wolf, then Agan certainly bears further innocence, but in the meantime, I'll take my continued instinct that, despite her malevolence, Agan is innocent as a confirmation that Shasta probably is.

Back later, towards the deadline...

[Boromir88]

and the ill consequences it had of making it possible neither Mith or Shasta would be lynched - but you stayed away.~Nogrod

The only thing I was thinking at that time was how could everyone be that stupid? How could that Form bandwagon start so easy? It was interesting to see once Rikae came and was wondering why it was assumed Shasta and Mith were the only "candidates" that others were quick to latch on and then tack on votes for Form. Granted that situation wouldn't have happened if I had gone through with a vote for Mith, but I thought Shasta was more likely a wolf, and Mith's gibbering yesterday (and overall diversionary jabber throughout her time here) was spammish. Now that sally is the spammer though, I still think Shasta is the wolf and Agan is innocent. If Mith knows she's dead meat she'll take the noose to give her buddies a chance at getting away.

The mistake that I made yesterday is when I was looking through everything I kept coming to the conclusion on several people, well this would really depend upon what Mith's identity is? Knowing Mith's identity would reveal more, and thinking Mith was guilty in some way, I should have gone with her eventhough I thought she was the spammer and we'd get a wolf with Shasta.

As far as Agan today, I don't see at this point why a wolf would cast a vote for Kitanna. And now that Agan can't be around for the rest of the day, I'm afraid the remaining wolves will go after her as it would be easier to get us to vote for her. I don't know if Agan's case against Kitanna is forced, she certainly has me mulling it over. Because I have felt Kitanna's voting has been pretty safe.

Maybe it just looks that way because Kit isn't around for the deadline and she usually has to vote early, but even though she is still pretty active, her votes just look like she's trying to stay out of trouble. I know I said if she was correct about Mith, I would probably trust her for the rest of the game. But that was also because of her thoughts about a wolf Mith and a wolf Nogrod, and now she backs away from Nogrod.

I don't see any reason why I should vote for Kitanna today. After Mith being a wolf she looks pretty innocent, but I will say if one wolf did vote for Mith, to look more innocent, I would imagine it would be Kitanna's vote or Nogrod's. Kit's because it is the first one and if Mith is the one lynched she looks innocent. But it is also a safe one because it removes her out of a tough decision at the end to either send her partner to the noose or vote for someone else and keep her partner alive for at least another day. And Nogrod's looks suspicious because he has made that bold decision to send his partner to the noose before.

edit: crossed with Eonwe

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sigh. For my first game as a Gifted, this really isn't going very well. I don't think I have much choice other than to reveal, since everyone's so focused on me.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Sigh. For my first game as a Gifted, this really isn't going very well. I don't think I have much choice other than to reveal, since everyone's so focused on me.

Uh-oh... that changes things I'd say. If none calls your revealment a bluff.

But now that you have come into the open you might tell us whom you did protect the first Night if the wolves (hopefully only a wolf) kills you the next Night... We'd do with one more innocent on our list even if it meant s/he would die the next Night.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You actually had it right, Nog. I protected Kath, hence the wolves attacking her again Night 2 when I was busy elsewhere.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Why didn't you reveal yesterday, Shasta? You looked in a lot of trouble then too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Why didn't you reveal yesterday, Shasta? You looked in a lot of trouble then too.

Yesterday there was still Mith (and to a lesser extent, Form) to focus on. The plan was to keep my vote till the end and if I still couldn't save myself, THEN reveal. Luckily though people decided to vote for Mith instead. Today though I'm pretty much by myself as a lynch target.

The idea was to get enough suspicion that the wolves wouldn't kill me, but not enough to be lynched. It worked for a while.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

Btw. if you're now true with us you surely understand you won't see the light of the Day anymore after the Night falls. So could you do us a favour and make a last effort, trying your best to come forwards with your mind about all of us.

None of us is infallible but we'd at least know you're not trying to fool or deceive us.

PS. I really don't get a few of your decisions during the game if you're the ranger but maybe we'll discuss them later in the post-game discussion...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay.

Btw. if you're now true with us you surely understand you won't see the light of the Day anymore after the Night falls. So could you do us a favour and make a last effort, trying your best to come forwards with your mind about all of us.

None of us is infallible but we'd at least know you're not trying to fool or deceive us.

PS. I really don't get a few of your decisions during the game if you're the ranger but maybe we'll discuss them later in the post-game discussion...

I know, I know. But given that I truly did think Nerwen and Mith innocent, I don't know how valuable my insights are going to be...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I know, I know. But given that I truly did think Nerwen and Mith innocent, I don't know how valuable my insights are going to be...

Cheer up mate! If you've got so many wrong you'll eventually get it right as well. Stay with us a while still. It's a nicer way to exit a game than just shutting the computer and be down.

Just coming to think of it: our hunter and ranger tearing each other apart Day after Day... And poor Brinn not able to share the fun with anyone...

[Boromir88]

Now onto a Mith and Nogrod connection. (If there is one).

Day 1 I didn't see much interaction between the two, Mith doesn't name Nogrod at all, and Nogrod only mentions her in a couple of posts, in passing. I don't see anything that would point either to Nogrod being Mith's partner, or not.

On Day 2 in Post 188:

So there was a danger of a tie of three emerging including Mith or Nerwen (whom I considered and still do consider not good lynches at least before any better reasons are given).

Nogrod names both Nerwen and Mith. Both are known wolves. I think this looks innocent for Nogrod, he's a smart wolf. Would he name his two partners in the same sentence and defend both of them? With Nogrod anything is possible, but at this time there were still only 3 wolves, and I don't think a wolf-Nogrod would stay that close to his two partners.

Post 232:

We need to check Kit toMorrow. As well as Mith. And I'll promise to read Nerwen properly.

Again he names Mith and Nerwen practically in the same sentence. And he does follow up the next day by "looking" at Mith.

Day 3 we start getting a little more...

Mith in post 300 goes on a tirade:

If I give up trying to sort through the posts (and time is against me) I may well may well vote for him on the principle that I am getting heartily fed up with him acting as some kind of cyber sheep-dog, voting literally at at the last minute, expecting everyone else to vote before him, then wringing his hands in moral outrage when they fail to do what he wants. Especially as when he has done it in other games he has played he has been a wolf. Just seems like such a major back covering exercise as if he is terrified a vote may incriminate him in some way - manipulative without risking the exposure of taking a lead.

And less than an hour later in post 306 she votes for Nogrod:

However I have skimmed again and it strikes me that not only is Nogrod being quietly amnipulative but he is being quiet.... normally you can't look away for a moment without there being more analysis. This time ( and I don't regard it as a bad thing as such) there are many others who are much more active in the discussion. Hard as it is to believe but Nogrod seems to be flying under the radar. Is that because in the classic scenario, Nerwen was a very loud wolf indeed?

Well I seldom regret voting for him and often regret not following through when I do suspect him.

This is what got me first seriously suspicious about Mith. I said her vote for Nogrod seemed really out of the blue, and I remember her the next day saying it wasn't out of the blue at all, she had said she was going to vote for Nogrod before. Going back through everything (unless I missed something from Days 1 and 2) the only time she talked about voting for Nogrod was less than an hour before her vote on Day 3, and only 6 posts before. Sorry Mith, that is still out of the blue.

Also at that time I came to a different conclusion than Mith's reasoning which was just plain out odd...Nogrod's quietness? Nogrod a quiet wolf? He's not afraid to blabber away if he's a wolf. Also, I didn't think Nogrod was that quiet at all. So, definitely Mith's Day 3 vote was what got me suspicious and at that point I thought Nogrod looked innocent.

In Post 311 Nogrod strikes back by saying Mith is wrong. I won't quote the whole thing, because it's rather long and Nogrod is pretty much just saying the same thing that he always votes late (if he can) and Mith saying he does it when he's a wolf is just wrong.

Nogrod strikes back pretty forcefully and a wolf-Nogrod would not be afraid to do so. But, my question is would he start to encourage others to vote for wolf partners? I still remember when I was dooped and as far as I remember he let me lead the case against his partners and he made the crucial lynching votes to look innocent.

In Post 328 Nogrod makes known his willingness to vote for Mith. I want to so bad say oh he's a wolf! But I can't let my bias get in the way here, this doesn't say either way because an innocent Nogrod would do the same.

Day 4:

Nogrod in post 356, 359 and through the rest of the day he keeps remarking that he wants to see Mith lynched, and still thinks Mith is a wolf. There are a couple posts where they have some playful exchange.

In 382 Nogrod defends his reasons for not always voting for his top suspects. Normally I would say to vote for who you think is most suspicious, but when you like to be around at the end like Nogrod he is absolutely right. The situation could be very different and who you want to see lynched might not be possible. So, in that instant you have to make a decision to choose who you think is more suspicious. That's just what Nogrod does, I've noticed so far in this village, at the end, Nogrod making known who he wants to go after tomorrow, but also promising to look at those he thinks are innocent.

There isn't anything else that strikes out to me on Day 4, just the same Nogrod saying he definitely wants to lynch Mith today.

I gone in thinking haha Nogrod you will not fool me again, I know you've gone and done it again. I know you've backstabbed one of your wolf partners. But, I think the conclusion I've reached is completely different, and if you are fooling me again Nogrod I will bring hell down on you next time this happens.

Anyway the conclusion I've come to is obviously Nogrod is a smart wolf, and from the talk throughout these days we are in a village very keen on trying to catch wolf on wolf votes. Plus, I'm in this village and through our lovely past he knows I would want to quickly jump on him for a wolf-on-wolf vote, so would wolf- Nogrod really do it again is the question? Perhaps in the right circumstances, but these aren't the right circumstances. Also, taking into consideration Mith knows me well, and thus knows it would be easy to latch on to Nogrod and frame him. Mith's playful banter looks like an attempt to get me to go after Nogrod, where Nogrod has been pretty much straight to business against Mith since Day 3.

And here comes another flip-flop from me. After thinking Kit's analysis of a wolf-Mith and wolf-Nogrod made sense, I'm going to say it's wrong.

Kit was right when she said if Durelin dreamed of Nogrod early she would not come out strong against Nogrod, she would more or less try to hint at it. I know because when I was a wolf and Durelin dreamed of me on Day 1 that's what she did. She let me have fun and mess around for a few days until I lost Naria and it was down to me and Valier. Then she came out and revealed I was a wolf and she dreamed of me on Night 1.

However, I think Kit was wrong in part of her analysis. Back in that past village I talked about above Durelin would not send confusing messages. She let me have fun for a few days but since she knew my identity she would only address me and the way she avoided my fellow wolves detection was when I would post she would say something like "Boro looks less suspicious to me now." She doesn't do that with Nogrod, she lumps Nogrod and myself together:

Also, Nogrod and Boro haven't been getting nearly enough attention. But really, I feel good about Nogrod's vote, because I like sticking to principles. And I liked Boro's attitude on Day 1 anyway. Day 2 I need to look at...obviously.

I'm inclined to believe Durelin didn't know about Nogrod or me, and like a wise lets the village know that. Let's them know she thinks we're innocent, but we have not been getting enough attention and she doesn't know. I don't think she would confuse us as Kit's analysis suggests, if she dreamed of Nogrod and found out he was a wolf she would be subtle about it. Which Kitanna was right about, but I think she is only half-right.

Edit: crossed with every post since my last one