Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Thinlómien]

I was afraid I'd only find a couple of posts when I come back, but I'm glad it is not so. There have been interesting points...

Originally Posted by Diamond

In fact the quieter the village gets the easier it is for me to actually participate.

Well, something good in that too, then... My apologies if I was a little rude ealier toDay, I was a little tired and annoyed and I can't still say I'm very happy with how this village has been acting this far, but I'm positive it can get better.

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Is it likely that the pairs of werewolves mentioned in Eomer's prophecy are meant to describe competing pairs of werewolves? I.e. It was Melkor's mission to kill Manwe and vice versa, and that when Legate (Manwe) was lynched by the Warg vote Brinniel's mission as Melkor was complete so she left the game.

Actually, could be. Why not? I just can't see what purpose would it serve... I mean, if the baddies just aim to attack each other, what is our role in it? Innocent casualties? Not very encouraging...

Originally Posted by Gaunt

I think the wolf kills on night 3 and 4 can be explained, but I still wasn't sure about Kitanna. Looking back, at one stage she suspected Samwise, Gollum and Gwath, but voted for Kath.
I wonder then if the two wolves are some combination of Gwath, Gollum and Kath?

Hmm, would you like to elaborate how can the kills of 3 and 4 be explained? I mean, I do a gree, but I'd like to hear your take on it.
As for Kitanna, I think it's too hasty to assume people she suspected were wolves. I don't think there's anything that necessarily points at that. If we are to analyse kills or dead people's words thoroughly, I suggest looking at Rune. I already did, but surely it wouldn't hurt to have other interpretations. I might have missed something, or I could be trying to mislead you.

And concerning Shasta - he dropped out of the game.

[Thinlómien]

Nobody but me around...?

Well, I will probably vote either Gollum or Gwath toDay, although I could vote Gaunt or Diamond too if it came to deciding between one of them and myself or Kath and Mith whom I believe innocent based on Rune's words.

As I have time and it's not a big job, I wonder if I should read thorugh all the posts Gollum, Gwath, Gaunt and Di and see if I have anything more to say after that...

[Gaunt]

Thinlomien,

Having thought more about it since my original post that that you quoted, here is my complete theory (at present) on the setup of this game.

When the game began, there were two werewolves, working in collaboration to decide who to kill. They chose Kitanna, then Nogrod, then Rune.

On the third night, Manwe and Melkor were introduced. Now, I can only imagine Brinniel and Legate did not know they were to become these characters from the beginning, and were only told on the third night - both characters would be needed for the idea to work, and if they had been told from the beginning then one or both of them could have been lynched or killed by wolves, and it would have caused problems.

Now, as to the problem of why there would be two characters placed there only to kill each other off, i think it may be that Manwe was to act as wolf, and it was Melkor's job to track him down. This, I guess, would have become more obvious if Manwe had actually had the chance to make a wolf-kill - but through good fortune he was voted off before he did.

Hence, through chance, both of these characters were gone almost as soon as they came on the scene, leaving us with only the original two wolves.

However, as I write this some ideas have sprung to mind: perhaps, had the vote not taken out Manwe, both of these characters would have behaved like wolves, but wolves who were trying to find one other wolf - a game within a game with each of their unsuccessful guesses taking out villagers as collateral damage. I did ask myself: how would they be able to distinguish between the other wolves and their opponent? But the answer to this ties in with what I have already said: they would be looking for someone who had become a wolf on the third night, like themselves, so they would be looking for a change in behaviour from that point. In fact, this seems more plausible than the Manwe as wolf and Melkor out to track him down theory.

In answer to your question as to why Nogrod and Rune were killed: Nogrod had targeted Gollum, and generally seemed to be onto what now appears to be the type of game the werewolves are playing. As for Rune, I will have to study his posts more, but my general impression was that he was quite prominent in the posts and must have come up with some insights that were troubling the wolves.

[Gollum the Great]

I seem to be a prime target for most of the village.

Those who seem to suspect me:

Gaunt
Lommy
Gwath
Diamond


Mith has said nothing which regards me today and Kath has not spoken yet.

[Kath]

Gaunt has popped up with some really interesting theories. I'm agreeing with his idea about Manwe and Melkor, it really seems to make sense. I'm not sure how worthwhile it is basing his arguments on Kitanna's posts since she had no additional knowledge but he does seem to be working things out very logically. Oh, and on second look, he's actually basing that logic on why the wolves might have killed her rather than what she said.

I went and had a look back over Rune's post and think I found the comment that anyone looking out for a Seer would have picked up on. He mentioned leaving trails, not something ordinary innocents tend to worry about. It was subtle, but obviously a wolf would be looking for it.

Lommy's little ... snit was interesting. Perhaps just tiredness and annoyance about Legate disappearing. But it was a little over the top. I mean, complaining about the villagers getting rid of the loud players when it's the wolves who killed Nog, the loudest player, and the Seer. Ok we did a bad job with lynching the Guardian on the first Day but hey, we just got a bad guy yesterDay! Come on Lommy, optimism!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy's little ... snit was interesting. Perhaps just tiredness and annoyance about Legate disappearing.

Originally Posted by Kath

But it was a little over the top. I mean, complaining about the villagers getting rid of the loud players when it's the wolves who killed Nog, the loudest player, and the Seer.

I was merely saying that it looked like the wolves were just as pitiful as the innocents...

Originally Posted by Kath

Ok we did a bad job with lynching the Guardian on the first Day but hey, we just got a bad guy yesterDay! Come on Lommy, optimism!

Actually, I'm feeling relatively optimistic now. All the discussion that was going on while I was away and Gaunt's theory that makes sense have made me have more faith. And despite some drawbacks, I'm actually enjoying this game. So, no problem.

[Gaunt]

Ok, I have to go home now so won't be on again today.

Here's how I think the rest of the game will go:

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf.

Then I predict the surviving wolf will kill either myself or Thinlomien.

Hopefully though, the villagers will be convinced enough to then vote Gwath, thus rooting out the two wolves and winning the game.

Now this all assumes my suspicions of Gollum and Gwath are correct. Now it is possible, but I think doubtful, that one of the wolves is Kath. If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

All said, tonight I am voting for:

++Gollum

[Gollum the Great]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf

From Legate to Lommy to Gaunt!

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

I think I said previously that I have trouble stating the reasons for my suspicions, and I possess the same issue regarding my defence.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

Believe me, you are.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I had a quick look at Gwath, Di, Gaunt and Golly. Didn't find much.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Hello Diamond18.
EDIT: We haven't heard from Gaunt yet toDay, have we? Gaunt? You there

Yet this sounds like Gwath is not a fellow of Diamond's (he would be more careful of doing anything as random as greeting her) but could be one of Gaunt's (the careless way he mentions him).

The four hardly mention each other, and when they do, it's nothing noteworthy (except maybe that one Gwath-comment). Gollum and Gwath still strike me as more suspicious than Di and Gaunt.

But more will be clear when we know the role of even one of them.


edit: xed with Gollum

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Ok, I have to go home now so won't be on again today.

Here's how I think the rest of the game will go:

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf.

Then I predict the surviving wolf will kill either myself or Thinlomien.

Hopefully though, the villagers will be convinced enough to then vote Gwath, thus rooting out the two wolves and winning the game.

EDIT: Crossed with Lommy and Mith

Now this all assumes my suspicions of Gollum and Gwath are correct. Now it is possible, but I think doubtful, that one of the wolves is Kath. If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

All said, tonight I am voting for:

++Gollum

You are far too certain of yourself, Gaunt. The odds are slim that you could deduce one out of two wolves, but it can be done. However, nailing both of them with one fell swoop of logic is nigh on impossible.

Besides, conspicuous lack of participation is a terrible strategy if BOTH werewolves are going to employ it. Silence can be a clever shield, but only if done in such a way that one does not attract attention. Attention gets you killed in Werewolf.

I'm watching you toMorrow, Gaunt. I don't like your self-assurance (maybe it's just too reminiscent of the phantom ), but I'm going to hope that it's the first game syndrome. I was the same way.

I am suspicious of Gollum, but I can't help feeling that traitors have been overlooked. I also don't feel that enough evidence has been built up against him; but GtheG has evidently become toDay's default vote (read in cynical tone), and he's the only player I have given any real thought to. No shots in the dark toDay, I'm playing it safe.

++Gollum

[Thinlómien]

Gaunt, I think your theory makes quite a lot of sense. I'm impressed. Of course we cannot know, but that's the first theory I've heard that makes any sense this far. So, our goal would now be finding two wolves that are fellows together and have no other ties?

Now, however, I would think differently about Nogrod's and Rune's deaths. I have no real idea why Nogrod was killed, but I think Rune was killed either for looking like a seer (which he was) or because no one except Gwath really suspected him.