Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Gollum the Great]

I seem to be a prime target for most of the village.

Those who seem to suspect me:

Gaunt
Lommy
Gwath
Diamond


Mith has said nothing which regards me today and Kath has not spoken yet.

[Kath]

Gaunt has popped up with some really interesting theories. I'm agreeing with his idea about Manwe and Melkor, it really seems to make sense. I'm not sure how worthwhile it is basing his arguments on Kitanna's posts since she had no additional knowledge but he does seem to be working things out very logically. Oh, and on second look, he's actually basing that logic on why the wolves might have killed her rather than what she said.

I went and had a look back over Rune's post and think I found the comment that anyone looking out for a Seer would have picked up on. He mentioned leaving trails, not something ordinary innocents tend to worry about. It was subtle, but obviously a wolf would be looking for it.

Lommy's little ... snit was interesting. Perhaps just tiredness and annoyance about Legate disappearing. But it was a little over the top. I mean, complaining about the villagers getting rid of the loud players when it's the wolves who killed Nog, the loudest player, and the Seer. Ok we did a bad job with lynching the Guardian on the first Day but hey, we just got a bad guy yesterDay! Come on Lommy, optimism!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy's little ... snit was interesting. Perhaps just tiredness and annoyance about Legate disappearing.

Originally Posted by Kath

But it was a little over the top. I mean, complaining about the villagers getting rid of the loud players when it's the wolves who killed Nog, the loudest player, and the Seer.

I was merely saying that it looked like the wolves were just as pitiful as the innocents...

Originally Posted by Kath

Ok we did a bad job with lynching the Guardian on the first Day but hey, we just got a bad guy yesterDay! Come on Lommy, optimism!

Actually, I'm feeling relatively optimistic now. All the discussion that was going on while I was away and Gaunt's theory that makes sense have made me have more faith. And despite some drawbacks, I'm actually enjoying this game. So, no problem.

[Gaunt]

Ok, I have to go home now so won't be on again today.

Here's how I think the rest of the game will go:

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf.

Then I predict the surviving wolf will kill either myself or Thinlomien.

Hopefully though, the villagers will be convinced enough to then vote Gwath, thus rooting out the two wolves and winning the game.

Now this all assumes my suspicions of Gollum and Gwath are correct. Now it is possible, but I think doubtful, that one of the wolves is Kath. If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

All said, tonight I am voting for:

++Gollum

[Gollum the Great]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf

From Legate to Lommy to Gaunt!

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

I think I said previously that I have trouble stating the reasons for my suspicions, and I possess the same issue regarding my defence.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

Believe me, you are.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I had a quick look at Gwath, Di, Gaunt and Golly. Didn't find much.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Hello Diamond18.
EDIT: We haven't heard from Gaunt yet toDay, have we? Gaunt? You there

Yet this sounds like Gwath is not a fellow of Diamond's (he would be more careful of doing anything as random as greeting her) but could be one of Gaunt's (the careless way he mentions him).

The four hardly mention each other, and when they do, it's nothing noteworthy (except maybe that one Gwath-comment). Gollum and Gwath still strike me as more suspicious than Di and Gaunt.

But more will be clear when we know the role of even one of them.


edit: xed with Gollum

[Mithalwen]

I hpe Gaunt is inspired rather than manipulative. Can't help not entirely trusting someone who has a clue what is going on...

[Kath]

If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

Oh Gaunt! Why did you have to say that? It makes me feel like a child with a big red button, all you want to do is press it to see what happens ... or in this case vote away from Gollum.

But no, I have been very impressed by your reasoning toDay and am inclined to trust you. You aren't the only person to have been suspicious of Gollum either, there has been on/off suspicion of him quite a bit over the Days. I did intend to go back and look at him myself but we were catching up on weekend TV and I ran out of time a bit. I do need to vote now though so:

++GOLLUM

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I hpe Gaunt is inspired rather than manipulative. Can't help not entirely trusting someone who has a clue what is going on...

Well, we can't discount the option of him being a bluffing wolf, but I like his theory too much. Or then he is a wolf who is telling the truth.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Ok, I have to go home now so won't be on again today.

Here's how I think the rest of the game will go:

Hopefully tonight Gollum will be voted off, as between him and Gwath I am more confident of his status as a wolf.

Then I predict the surviving wolf will kill either myself or Thinlomien.

Hopefully though, the villagers will be convinced enough to then vote Gwath, thus rooting out the two wolves and winning the game.

EDIT: Crossed with Lommy and Mith

Now this all assumes my suspicions of Gollum and Gwath are correct. Now it is possible, but I think doubtful, that one of the wolves is Kath. If Kath votes for Gwath rather than Gollum, or indeed anyone else rather than Gollum, I think this possibility remains open, but Gwath is still more likely.

It may be because he has not been on much, but Gollum has offered pretty much nothing in defence against strong suspicions directed at him.

Of course, I could be completely wrong!

All said, tonight I am voting for:

++Gollum

You are far too certain of yourself, Gaunt. The odds are slim that you could deduce one out of two wolves, but it can be done. However, nailing both of them with one fell swoop of logic is nigh on impossible.

Besides, conspicuous lack of participation is a terrible strategy if BOTH werewolves are going to employ it. Silence can be a clever shield, but only if done in such a way that one does not attract attention. Attention gets you killed in Werewolf.

I'm watching you toMorrow, Gaunt. I don't like your self-assurance (maybe it's just too reminiscent of the phantom ), but I'm going to hope that it's the first game syndrome. I was the same way.

I am suspicious of Gollum, but I can't help feeling that traitors have been overlooked. I also don't feel that enough evidence has been built up against him; but GtheG has evidently become toDay's default vote (read in cynical tone), and he's the only player I have given any real thought to. No shots in the dark toDay, I'm playing it safe.

++Gollum