Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Thinlómien]

I don't like it all how Gwath jumps on me with rather questionable points. Looks rather furry to me...

Originally Posted by Gwath

I only take issue with the ** part of your analysis. First, I said that I did suspect Gollum. Second, the overall interpretation of that post should be that even though I felt less than satisfied with voting against Gollum, hewas nonetheless the only player that I had any real grounds for suspecting, weak though they might be. I had given even less thought to the other players. Lastly, my comment regarding the village's defaulting to a Gollum-vote was written in cynicism.

Point taken. I might not have understood it the way you did. At least I didn't catch the cynicism. It looked more like wolvish fatalism to me.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Rubbish! Hardly anyone suspected me yesterDay. My name wasn't even mentioned more than once twice. In fact, over the course of this entire game, I have received a grand total of about two votes. This, of course, is what happens when "pretty much everyone suspected you." (I quote Lommy)

That might be true. To be honest, I haven't checked. That was just the overall impression I got from yesterDay. It isn't necessarily correct. I find it more than questionable that you should make such an issue out of it. You look like you're just grasping at straws to justify your vote for any innocent player toDay, and maybe even convince others to join. Doesn't look good to me. At all.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Her 3 analyses concern me because of their overall uniformity. All 3 are almost exactly the same in that they carefully avoid making any irrectractable conclusions. It as if Lommy went and filed all the sharp points and interesting edges off before posting, with the result that they all make practically identical conclusions: The subject does a few suspicious things (which she relates), but her suspicions extend no farther than the degree of curiosity. So, while these analyses appear to condemn no one, they leave her a variety of voting options later on - and so, paradoxically, condemn everyone. She is afraid to commit.

Again you're not thinking about what I've said but just happily using them as an excuse against me! Really. I did say I wouldn't make any overall conclusions on which ones of the three of you are wolves right then when I made those analyses because I needed to go to sleep and think when my brain was more refreshed (it was about 5am my time when I finished the last analysis). I said I'd come back to draw conclusions - you discount that happily. You're too eager to get rid of me to be innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Continuing from where I left my analyses yesterday - some comparison of Gwath, Gaunt and Di and thoughts on possible connections.

It's difficult to say who is the most suspicious of them all, happily recent posts have helped with that a little. Because I really do find Gwath's attack on me very uninnocentish. Contrary to that, Diamond's explanation of her hurries and votes looked rather genuine. Admittedly, something in her sort of non-commitedness disturbs me, and quite a lot. Gaunt doesn't strike me as particularily wolvish, but my reasoning just tells me he is quite probably one - I think it would make sense and it would definitely explain why he's so aware of everything.

I doubt Gwath and Diamond are fellows. I still think Gwath wouldn't have written "Hi, Diamond18" if they were fellows. Also, unless Gwath is a total gambler, I can't see why they would have voted different people toDay.

I also doubt Diamond and Gaunt are fellows. Why would Di have voted Gaunt now that they are so close to victory?

That leaves the Gwath-Gaunt combo, which even makes sense. It would explain why they have dropped suspicion of each other toDay.

Nicely played, guys, but I think I caught you. Ha. (Or then someone's really bluffing hard, or I should after all bring the Kath card back to the game aaaaaargh.)

Now I'm scared.

This seems a little too easy. Everytime I think I'm right about something in ww I'm wrong. Escpecially if it's a crucial choice.

I'm rather sure I will vote either Gwath or Gaunt toDay. At least one of them should be a wolf.

(I just got the horrible idea of a Kath-Di combo... but they would have played so beautifully that they'd almost deserve to win.)

[Kath]

If the final wolves were myself and Di we would not deserve to win, we've barely been here! I don't think Di is a wolf because she has been here so little.

Anyway, I find myself agreeing with Gwath a bit! I don't quite know what it is about Lommy but she is really looking suspicious to me at the moment. It is quite possibly just because she's still alive.

Of Gaunt and Gwath ... I just don't know.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Anyway, I find myself agreeing with Gwath a bit! I don't quite know what it is about Lommy but she is really looking suspicious to me at the moment. It is quite possibly just because she's still alive.

I think I'm looking suspicious to you (plural) because I'm talking. I mean, really, if someone talks, s/he says a lot of things you can grasp and thus it's easy to say s/he's suspicious. (From now on, I should probably refrain from flood-posting in crucial Days just to avoid catastrophes... )

Originally Posted by Kath

If the final wolves were myself and Di we would not deserve to win, we've barely been here! I don't think Di is a wolf because she has been here so little.

Well, maybe but the little you two have said has mostly seemed innocent enough.

[Thinlómien]

I was just thinking about this and I realised something - Kath, if you vote me, we will lose because Gaunt won't surely vote himself...

Not that Gaunt is necessarily a wolf either.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Not that Gaunt is necessarily a wolf either.

That's right, backtrack now.

Dig your pit deeper, traitor.

[Kath]

I disagree Lommy. Because Gaunt has spoken just as much and I don't get that feeling that he's suspicious.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

I disagree Lommy. Because Gaunt has spoken just as much and I don't get that feeling that he's suspicious.

I don't think he has spoken as much as I have. More than you others, though. And like I said, he has mostly talked about rules, which is rather safe for a wolf.

[Kath]

And like I said, he has mostly talked about rules, which is rather safe for a wolf.

Really? Because I would have said he talked about a lot more than that. All of yesterDay he was coming up with theories, making decisions based on those theories, interacting with everyone and voting decisively. Any rule discussion was a prelude to all this ... no?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That leaves the Gwath-Gaunt combo, which even makes sense. It would explain why they have dropped suspicion of each other toDay.

Nicely played, guys, but I think I caught you. Ha. (Or then someone's really bluffing hard, or I should after all bring the Kath card back to the game aaaaaargh.)

She is lying through her fangs.

Notice the clever inclusion of humor to disarm the unsuspecting, and that by the end of the original post, she is treating the Gwath-Gaunt biumvirate of treachery as an axiomatic fact. Pure evil.

[Thinlómien]

Gwathagor would you please stop being single-mindedly twisting my words and try to understand me! You're being counter-productive.

I never said I'm sure you and Gaunt are the wolves. I only said it makes the most sense to me. I never treated it as a fact.

I think there's nothing wrong with me saying that Gaunt is not necessarily a traitor. I think he probably is, but how could I know for sure??

Okay, Gwathie, either you're a wolf who's playing rather dirtily, or then you are an innocent who's a bit too offended by the fact that I do honestly happen to find you the most suspicious of this lot. I have a right to that opinion, no need to get heated.

[Thinlómien]

Once I reply Gwath's nonsense accusations with sensible replies, he falls silent... interesting...

Is there anyone else who'd be for voting Gwath toDay?

If there isn't, I will have to vote Gaunt who I'm less suspicious of...

Guess what, people, I bet we're going to lose this game tonight. Hats off to the wolves at any rate. I have the feeling we will just make the wrong choice... but that is not to say we can't try.

I feel useless.

I have absolutely nothing to do before Kath and Gaunt appear. I believe rereads or further analyses won't help me anymore. I have my conception of things and it won't change if there are no new posts (Gwathagor's rants don't count because they only reinforce my picture of him as a wolf).

Furthermore, I have the nagging feeling this village will commit suicide by lynching me toDay and I feel I can't help it in any way.

[Gaunt]

In a complete reversal of my theory yesterday, I still think Gwath is looking quite innocent. As for Di or Kath, it's difficult to be sure. Thinlomien, hmm. Now you're targeting Gwath, the other villain in the (incorrect) Gollum-Gwath theory, and me, the other main proponent (along with yourself) of this theory.

[Gwathagor]

[quote=Thinlómien;570336]

I never said I'm sure you and Gaunt are the wolves. I only said it makes the most sense to me. I never treated it as a fact.

quote]

There is no 'fact' in werewolf, only what makes the most sense.

Originally Posted by Gaunt

In a complete reversal of my theory yesterday, I still think Gwath is looking quite innocent. As for Di or Kath, it's difficult to be sure. Thinlomien, hmm. Now you're targeting Gwath, the other villain in the (incorrect) Gollum-Gwath theory, and me, the other main proponent (along with yourself) of this theory.

I should also point out, Gaunt, that the reason she was willing to drop you rather than me out of her theory was likely because she realized that if she did not, then you would vote against her, not me, thus thwarting her designs.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I should also point out, Gaunt, that the reason she was willing to drop you rather than me out of her theory was likely because she realized that if she did not, then you would vote against her, not me, thus thwarting her designs.

Please explain.

[Gaunt]

Right, I have to go now and therefore I have to vote.

Di voted for me early today. I realise I probably attracted attention by putting out a strong theory yesterday, but why vote for me over Thinlomien?

Thinlomien's remarks today have struck me as a little suspicious. She's retained her Gwath suspicion and added me to that, even though yesterday I basically shared her suspicions and she agreed with my theories. I don't really want to vote her off because I don't like the idea that you get voted because you talk a lot.

Nonetheless, given all the evidence, I think she and Di are the werewolves. I will regret it if i'm wrong.

My vote:

++Thinlomien

[Thinlómien]

Oh, Gaunt, you force me to do this.

++Gaunt

Let's hope you're a wolf

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Nonetheless, given all the evidence, I think she and Di are the werewolves. I will regret it if i'm wrong.

My thoughts precisely, to the letter.