Why didn't Saruman go to the Shire to take the Ring?

[Alfirin]

I think that the main reason Saruman did not immeditely go running to the shire was in its own way becuse he had made a great error in dealing with the WK, not so much in what he had kept hidden, but in what he hadn't. He had lied to the WK and he had no way of knowing how long it would be before the lie was exposed. More importantly he had (possibly inadvertently) said so fairly damming things to the WK, namely 1. that he knew what the WK was after and more importantly that, given the opportuntity, he would no hestitie to claim this item for himself. Given the fact that the WK is basically Sauron's right hand man, (in the absence of a new ringlord) and anything said to him is more or less guarneteed to wind up being reported to Sauron, this is a very foolish thing to say. The moment the message is recived by Sauron, Saruman will be kept under immediate and total survallaince, if he is allowed to remain free at all. With Gandalf gone Saruman is in even hotter water. I think that he assumes the following-

The moment the WK left he would have had suspisions as to Saruman's loyalty, the WK would then have posted some sort of spies, even possibly allowing one or two of the lesser riders to peel off and keep an eye on Saruman in secret. The moment Saruman made a move, the message would have gotten to the WK, at which point ALL the Nazgul would be hot on Saruman's trail, assuming that where he went the ring was. Saruman's only hope (and likely plan) was to wait until such time as the ring wraiths were, in thier searches all sufficiently far away from both him and the shire (given how small the shire was, it would be likey that without a good lead, the WK would miss it) that he could safely get to the shire before the Nazgul could catch up.

Once there he would indeed have had little trouble finding Frodo or convincing him, The most likey story would have been as follows. Saruman arrives at Bag End (or if a little later meets the party on the road) and tells Frodo that due to pressing matters Gandalf is going to be delayed (as he said he might be) but that the matter the Ring was so important to Gandalf that he came and begged Saruman, who as head of the order of wizards was the greatest of the all, to come in the interim, to protect Frodo in his stead, and that He realizaing the great need, had consented. Alternitvely, he could have simply disgused himself as Gandalf, as It is doubtful that anyone he met would be able to see through the disguise.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Alfirin

I think that the main reason Saruman did not immeditely go running to the shire was in its own way becuse he had made a great error in dealing with the WK, not so much in what he had kept hidden, but in what he hadn't. He had lied to the WK and he had no way of knowing how long it would be before the lie was exposed. More importantly he had (possibly inadvertently) said so fairly damming things to the WK, namely 1. that he knew what the WK was after and more importantly that, given the opportuntity, he would no hestitie to claim this item for himself. Given the fact that the WK is basically Sauron's right hand man, (in the absence of a new ringlord) and anything said to him is more or less guarneteed to wind up being reported to Sauron, this is a very foolish thing to say. The moment the message is recived by Sauron, Saruman will be kept under immediate and total survallaince, if he is allowed to remain free at all. With Gandalf gone Saruman is in even hotter water. I think that he assumes the following-

The moment the WK left he would have had suspisions as to Saruman's loyalty, the WK would then have posted some sort of spies, even possibly allowing one or two of the lesser riders to peel off and keep an eye on Saruman in secret. The moment Saruman made a move, the message would have gotten to the WK, at which point ALL the Nazgul would be hot on Saruman's trail, assuming that where he went the ring was. Saruman's only hope (and likely plan) was to wait until such time as the ring wraiths were, in thier searches all sufficiently far away from both him and the shire (given how small the shire was, it would be likey that without a good lead, the WK would miss it) that he could safely get to the shire before the Nazgul could catch up.

Saruman was not too smart in his talk with the WK, that's for sure. Excellent analysis of the situation, Alfirin. Only it is the September 3018 situation, not the earlier, summer situation I was speaking about.

Saruman had talked with the WK in the early hours on September 18, at the same time when Gandalf escaped from Orthanc. After that, indeed, it would have been foolish to go to the Shire - too late.

Before that Saruman had two months free - at this time Gandalf was biting his nails atop Saruman's Tower, and the nazgul were off on the sightseeing trip up the Vales of Anduin, likely all the way to Gundabad, because Sauron had mistakenly sent them there. The road to the Shire was free. Saruman could go there and return with the Ring in two weeks.

Originally Posted by Alfirin

Once there he would indeed have had little trouble finding Frodo or convincing him, The most likey story would have been as follows. Saruman arrives at Bag End (or if a little later meets the party on the road) and tells Frodo that due to pressing matters Gandalf is going to be delayed (as he said he might be) but that the matter the Ring was so important to Gandalf that he came and begged Saruman, who as head of the order of wizards was the greatest of the all, to come in the interim, to protect Frodo in his stead, and that He realizaing the great need, had consented. Alternitvely, he could have simply disgused himself as Gandalf, as It is doubtful that anyone he met would be able to see through the disguise.

Ahh - we have cross-posted. Great minds think alike

[HerenIstarion]

Most likely Saruman hopes that Gandalf will come bringing the Ring with him

Seems to me you've answered your own question well enough putting forth quote as above

Another reason may have been psychology - Saruman has grown used to being the Lord of Orthank with all the benefits and comforts it brought along, being even afraid to an extent of venturing abroad alone (as opposed to Gandalf who's wandering about on his own most of the time). (cf. his heavy stress on 'destruction of his home' encountering the returning Lords of the West in Hollin and also remark made in conversation in Flotsam and Jetsam I believe about faded wizardry of Saruman's who has to rely on 'wheels and chains and slaves' now)

It seems the mark of all beings going evil that they exhibit less courage the more evil they become (cf. Morgoth and his self-imposed confinement towards the end) and less will/capacity to independent action - you can tell the one has started going rotten as soon as they start to lean towards Denethor's wisdom (good captain sitting back sending forth his inferiors)

[Boromir88]

Alfirin's analysis is a thing of beauty, and I will rep you for that post, when I can.

I guess to answer why Saruman hadn't acted before the WK arrived - now keep in mind this is my own rambling speculations - I have nothing as far as "proof."

I think we should keep in mind that dangerous game Saruman was playing. He was not only deceiving Gandalf, and the rest of the Wise, into trusting him, but he was also trying to deceive Sauron. Saruman wanted to be the Ring Lord himself, he had to not only appeal to Sauron, but keep the trust of the "Wise." And when Elrond, hears of Saruman's betrayal, he is completely shocked (as was Gandalf).

As Gandalf says in The Council of Elrond, even the greatest spiders leave a "weak thread," and Sarumans lies begin to unravel. When he's caught, he's got himself stuck in a vice; Gandalf comes after him to expel him from the Order and the Council, Sauron is after the presumed Hobbit that he captured.

So, for Saruman, he was playing such a dangerous game, he had to keep up the act as long as possible. As Grishnakh says Sauron knows Saruman is "treacherous" and "the Eye is on him." (The Uruk-hai). My guess is Sauron had his eye on Saruman from the very beginning. Saruman might have thought he was keeping his true intent hidden, and Sauron might not have figured it out until later, but he definitely had Saruman under surveillance from the get go.

Remember, that it was Saruman who is credited for driving Sauron out of Dol Guldur, and it is Saruman who did it to prevent Sauron from searching The Gladden Fields. This wasn't a loyal, trusting friendship, and I very highly doubt Sauron and Saruman went to counseling together to work our their past.

Long story short, Saruman wanted to keep the Ring away from Sauron, just as much as he wanted it for himself. Had he gone racing off for the Ring when he first got news of where it probably was, this would have certainly tipped Sauron off sooner. On where the Ring was, and also Saruman's own treachery. Not only that, but the good guys would have learned about Saruman's betrayal a lot sooner than they did, when Gandalf spilled the beans (what a tattle tale! ). In a way, Saruman handcuffed himself, by the way he decided to play the game.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

In a way, Saruman handcuffed himself, by the way he decided to play the game.

His plan was maybe not that bad, but he was not subtle enough to adapt to the changing situation, make quick decisions and carry them out.

For instance, HerenIstarion agrees with me that Saruman may have hoped that Gandalf will come to Orthanc bringing the Ring. Yes, but then, when Gandalf came without the Ring, - why didn't Saruman change his plans accordingly?
Read again the beginning of their memorable conversation:

"So you have come, Gandalf," he said to me gravely; but in his eyes there seemed to be a white light, as if a cold laughter was in his heart.
`"Yes, I have come," I said. "I have come for your aid, Saruman the White." And that title seemed to anger him.
"Have you indeed, Gandalf the Grey! " he scoffed. "For aid? It has seldom been heard of that Gandalf the Grey sought for aid, one so cunning and so wise, wandering about the lands, and concerning himself in every business, whether it belongs to him or not."
I looked at him and wondered. "But if I am not deceived," said I, "things are now moving which will require the union of all our strength."

Does Saruman seem a clever guy here? Gandalf calls him "the White" - and look at it, the mighty Saruman gets angry and spills out everything, revealing his own treachery before the White Council. Had he more patience and cunning, Saruman, pretending to support Gandalf, could have learned the location of the Ring and devised some plan to seize it.

Same problem he had in the talk with the Morgul Lord. It seems the Nazgul was not too polite in his "challenge and demands": we know he didn't bow and didn't call Saruman "lord". And look at it - mighty Saruman gets miffed and again tells much more than he should have, trying to impress the nazgul.

Same problem at the parley in LOTR. Saruman tries to charm Theoden and for a time it seems that he might succeed. Gimli intervenes, then Eomer. Saruman rebukes both angrily, dissipating the effect of his main spell.

Yes, psychology is quite important. Even when Saruman tries to do what he does best: tries to persuade somebody, he fails, because he has grown too sure of himself, too proud and easily offended. And when offended, he looses his temper and makes mistakes.

[Morthoron]

Originally Posted by Gordis

Does Saruman seem a clever guy here?

Humorously, this is just another example of Tolkien's 'wise' not being very wise, or perhaps merely lacking common sense. Inexplicably throughout Tolkien's mythos, those he accounts 'wise' make bad decisions, misjudge their foes, and basically display serious woodenheadedness. I'd cite several hundred examples, but I believe everyone gets the gist of what I'm saying.

Oftentimes, the simple Hobbits display more common sense than the educated elite. I suppose that is just a reflection of how things usually are in a real-world sense.

[littlemanpoet]

As with Saruman and so many others, the wise succumb to pride while the humble do what must be done. It's Saruman's pride that is his undoing. 'Pride goes before a fall'.