Tol-in-Gaurhoth LIV: The Council of Evil

[Aganzir]

Ouchouchouch.

Obviously the wolves are better than me because I didn't spot Menel. Maybe because I kept myself too busy trying to look like the seer myself.

So it's two wolves, bear, hunter, and three ordos now, and probably only four are getting online today. It makes it more difficult for us that we can't find out Izzy's role (is there any chance she be modfired?), or Shasta's (as long as he can't play) so we don't know how many baddies we actually need to find or how bad our situation really is.

I am the hunter.

Thought you could do with one known innocent now.

I'm dead tired so I apologize and go to sleep without being of any help. I'm also not sure how much online time I can find tomorrow as I'm seeing a friend I don't meet very often, but I'll try to be here as long as I can.

I'm still rather suspicious of sally and still for no reason.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I am the hunter.

Thought you could do with one known innocent now.

I thought so~! (Well, I thought you were innocent anyway. Now I'm even more glad that I didn't vote for you yesterDay, although depending on who you picked you may have taken a wolf with you.)


Okay, with that information, I think I can safely say....that I still don't have much of an idea what's going on. My internet's going kind of haywire this evening, so I gave up on posting for a bit, which is why I haven't posted about Menel, but I'll do my best.


No, Agan, don't leave me!!!!

:P

[satansaloser2005]

For my reference, we have these people left.


Agan (assumedly the hunter)
Sally (innocent)
Gwath
Eon
Kath
Shasta (no real posts)
Izzy (hasn't shown up yet)

So we know that Shasta and Gwath won't be online for the next day or so, at least as far as we're aware, and Izzy's completely MIA, so that leaves me with the options of Eon and Kath. Kath strikes me as safe, but almost too safe, if you know what I mean. I'm going to look at Menel's posts now, connection permitting, but for now my vote is almost guaranteed to go to one of those two.

ETA: Of course it's possible that Agan's lying, especially since half the people are gone and the real hunter isn't me (aka the only consistently vocal person) so no one's probably going to challenge her. But for now I'm choosing to believe her.

[satansaloser2005]

Day One

Okay, so the first 'accusation' of any kind is toward Gwath, saying that he's too tough on Bowie. But this was on the first Day, so while he may be right he couldn't possibly know for sure, as he had no 'pre-game' dream, poor fellow.

Then he mentions Agan, dedicates quite a post toward her, and says that she looks pretty dern suspicious because she's after Gwath, that and her suspicion of Brinniel and all this business. He also accuses her of flip flopping, but not in so many words.

Find Ilya a bit suspicious, and says that Gwath sounds suspicious no matter what he is, but votes Agan.



Day Two

But then, oh, then, he mentions Agan again. And if I'm not mistaken the gist of his post is "oh, just kidding, I read her wrong, I think she's innocent but I'll still keep an eye on her because I should". It makes me thinks that he possibly dreamt her innocent. In the same post he mentions Gwath and Bowie as possible partners.

He then votes Gwath, well after the deadline but a vote nonetheless, and there were other candidates up (including myself and Agan, though Ilya was basically dead anyway so it was a throwaway of sorts) so I wonder if he did indeed dream Gwath.

Thus, his possible dreams for the night of Boro's death, at least that would make sense with what he's posted: Agan (innocent/hunter) or Gwath (wolf/bear).



The next Day he starts off his posting by noting the dead, our beloved and departed Boro and Nog. Who could do such a thing? Perhaps Kath, he suggests. She is a tricksy one, after all.

In the next post he says he's gone through Kath's posts and there's not much to talk about, but he finds nothing that 'jumps out as suspicious'. That doesn't mean that he doesn't suspect her, only that he doesn't see anything in her posts that is suspicious. Perhaps he's dreamt her?

Yay! He called me evil! Anyway, moving on. I was on the chopping block that day so since he didn't vote me I doubt he dreamt me. (And even if he did dream me....well, then he definitely wouldn't have voted me because I'm innocent, but I'm the only one who knows that so I won't take that into account.) If you're Miss Paranoid Agan Pants and assume that I'm evil, it could be a bluff by not voting me to keep him alive long enough to find my partner. I'll put the theory out there, even though it's not true. Also, he still finds Gwath and Bowie suspicious, but votes Bowie because he's overdefensive. Perhaps he'd dreamt Gwath already (whether this night or the night previous) and wanted to get rid of a possible unknown wolf? Then upon the dawn he could tell us that Gwath was the other furry fiend and we'd be rid of both of them and just left with the bear.

Thus....possible dreams: Kath (wolf/bear), Sally (wolf/bear), Gwath....again (wolf/bear)

He never mentions anyone but the five of us though. He talks of how we react to the other players, but never mentioned Eon, Shasta, Izzy, or any of the dead players in his suspicions. (Edit to this: that's not true, after I saw the Agan vote post. He also mentions Ilya, but the fact remains that he speaks of Gwath the most after Day One, along with Kath, Agan, and I. I'm not counting Bowie because he's dead.)


My theory? His dreams were either Agan (innocent/hunter) and Gwath (wolf/bear), Agan (innocent/hunter) and Kath (wolf/bear), or Gwath (wolf/bear) and Kath (wolf/bear).

So....Agan, my dear, it seems to be up to us (if you're trusting me again, which I doubt). Gwath or Kath? I'm assuming Gwath because Kath is hardly going to vote for herself and if Agan votes me then we definitely wouldn't get a wolf. At the same time, however, I feel rather unsports(wo)manlike killing Gwath while he's gone. But still.

[satansaloser2005]

Hmmmm. I don't think the Gwath/Kath dream analogy fits, come to think of it, because he would have found both the wolves (or a wolf and a bear) and I would assume he would let us know this information. Then again, with people so hard to read this game he may have not said anything specific. I'd like to hear other opinions, of course.

[Aganzir]

If I had to pick two people he had dreamt of, I'd say Agan (hunter) and sally (wolf/bear).

If he dreamt of me on night 1 (which makes the most sense), his Gwath vote means nothing. However I don't think he found Gwath a wolf even if he dreamt of him. In my opinion there isn't enough evidence pointing at it. Plus I find Gwath rather innocent-looking.
If he found Kath a baddie, why didn't he try to find any evidence against her? Therefore a Kath dream doesn't make sense to me.

I am for lynching sally today.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

If I had to pick two people he had dreamt of, I'd say Agan (hunter) and sally (wolf/bear).

If he dreamt of me on night 1 (which makes the most sense), his Gwath vote means nothing. However I don't think he found Gwath a wolf even if he dreamt of him. In my opinion there isn't enough evidence pointing at it. Plus I find Gwath rather innocent-looking.
If he found Kath a baddie, why didn't he try to find any evidence against her? Therefore a Kath dream doesn't make sense to me.

I am for lynching sally today.

Honey, if he dreamt me, he would have tried to kill me. The Day I could have been lynched he voted for someone else. It just doesn't make sense, unless he dreamt me last Night which means nothing to us anyway.

I think Gwath makes a bit more sense for a baddie than Kath, although I'd be amenable to lynching either. However, I think I'll have to go for Gwath, for reasons I stated before.

Here's my predicament for the day. I don't know when/if I'm going into work (they have to fix a bunch of equipment or something so I don't know when they'll call me) but if I'm called in I might have to vote before I leave. Just letting you all know now. If I don't go to work today I'll hold my vote closer to deadline so we can have more discussion. I just wanted to keep you all in the loop.

[Aganzir]

I think it has been quite clear for long (why am I still alive?) so why not say it aloud.

You might only guess who I had picked yesterday... I'm not entirely dishonest about my suspicions.

However I still have no real suspects apart from sally. I probably should try to form them at some point today.

Anyway really off to sleep now. Good night dearies.

edit: xed with a sally

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think it has been quite clear for long (why am I still alive?) so why not say it aloud.

You might only guess who I had picked yesterday... I'm not entirely dishonest about my suspicions.

However I still have no real suspects apart from sally. I probably should try to form them at some point today.

Anyway really off to sleep now. Good night dearies.

edit: xed with a sally

Nasty Sally-hunter. Bad girl, bad! Tsk tsk!

Go to bed, love. See you in the morning! (And please do post about Eon and Kath when you get the chance, as I'm going to be choosing between them pretty much regardless, unless something unexpected happens.)

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and I'm quite sad that the wolves didn't believe my tiny bluff. I said in my first 'real' post that I already knew Brinn was innocent. Obviously it was because she was dead when I read the thread, but I was hoping that they would take the bait and kill me rather than the seer. Alas, poor Menel, we knew him well.

[satansaloser2005]

Why won't it let me bloody POST!!?!??!?!?!?!?!?

ETA: K. Better. I'm trying to post all of Menel's words into one post but it keeps telling me my message is too short and that it needs to be at least one character long. Sorry about the random angry moment. Just a bit frustrating. *goes back to figure out what's going on*

[satansaloser2005]

Forget this. I'm getting too angry at the stupid thing to worry about it right now. I'll be back when I can get it to work. Sorry, guys. (Not that any of you are around, but still....)

[satansaloser2005]

Day One

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

*Meneltarmacil the fire-drake enters the cavern*

Raaaawwwwwrrrrr! I brought you guys some dinner!

*brings in a number of freshly-cooked dwarves*

These guys were trying to dig tunnels all around my lair, so I roasted them. But on to other matters. I hear some of us have decided to turn traitorous. No idea who, but rest assured they will be breathed on and eaten if I run across 'em.

Let us be careful in our accusations, however. I would hate for any of our number to die needlessly, however tasty they might be.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Though I am loath to bring such a complaint against one of my winged bretheren, I do find Gwathagor's accusation against Strongbow to be a bit out of line. It seems like Gwath is grasping at straws to find something to say, not unlike a traitor distracting us from his plans.

However, he may just be trying to get us talking, and not be a traitor at all. We'll just have to see what comes.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

To answer your question, Aganzir, you initially said this about Gwathagor:

and then followed it up in other posts with things like this:

and

Later on, however, you seemed to change your opinion with this statement:

(Gwath was clearly listed as "Guilty" by you earlier, though...)
Also, despite your discussion about Gwath with Boromir88 afterward which yielded the "Guilty" comment, you made this statement:

Add that to the continuous suspicion of Brinniel the unjustly killed, and things don't look too good.

Well, that's all for now, as I grow weary and must retire to the giant treasure heap in my lair for some rest..

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

OK, I'll vote now, despite my lack of anything really solid to go on.

After Gwathagor made the bear accusation earlier, Ilya mentions that Bowie is "up to something" and also mentions suspicion of Gwath, but lets the latter slide.

I don't think Strongbow has done much that warrants suspicion, and I agree that Gwath tends to make suspicious comments regardless of whethjer or not he actually turns out to be evil. Ilya does seem a bit suspicious, and I also don't like how Aganzir flip-flops on several different people (including Ilya). I get the sense that she is trying to cast suspicion on others, yet making it appear otherwise.

For now, I'll vote for

++Aganzir

Day Two

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Actually, when it comes to Agan, I think I wasn't interpreting her posts correctly regarding Ilya, thinking her "unsure but will reserve judgement" to "not particularly suspicious" was somehow flip-flopping. The constant suspicion of Brinn remains an oddity, however.

However, something else seems to have occurred to me. Could Gwath and Bowie both be traitorous? It may seem an odd idea, but I've known werewolves who have done this before. Perhaps this argument over the werebear was staged to give us the impression that they are not allies?

This would give Bowie the advantage of looking like an innocent victim while Gwath's aggression would appear to be the typical "Gwath being Gwath" thing, helping to shield him.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Nobody else around? Well, as I don't know when the deadline is due to this strange schedule, I suppose I'll just vote now.

++Gwathagor

Day Three

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

OK, so the traitors have killed Nogrod and Boromir88 thus far, which brings me to an interesting conclusion.

We have somebody who knows which innocents are troublesome and which aren't. Someone intelligent and experienced is probably working against us, driving us into confusion by hitting our best and brightest.

With this information, I find Kath to be the most capable of carrying this sort of plan out. She's been around many werewolf-plagued villages here and is likely familiar with people's playing styles. I don't have the time for it now, but later toDay I will look through her posts and put up an analysis of her behavior.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I've gone through Kath's posts, sparse as they are. The only one of substance was near the end of Day 2, and aside for some strangeness in backing me on my misguided ideas about Aganzir, I can't find anything that jumps out as suspicious. She does have a good point toDay about other experienced parties; I'd forgotten just how long they'd been around due to my long absence.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I don't really know what to make of sally, but I have noticed an odd tendency in her posts to mention, repeatedly, that she has no idea who the baddies may be. Possibly that Evil Sally can't find anything with which to trip up the innocent, so she just tries to post a lot in order to seem eager to help.

I'm really getting some negative vibes about the arguments between Gwathagor and Strongbow. Their antagonism started early, and over a joke at that. They may well be wolves, making up this disagreement to avoid impressions of being allies. However, between the two, I think Bowie's overdefensiveness makes him the more suspicious one, so

++Strongbow

EDIT: I missed a post! I'm so thick, dang it! But it's edited in now, and it's the Agan vote post so you can look that over too. Also, I just added the day numbers in so it'd be easier, but obviously there was no 'content' to change so I'm hoping this is okay to edit it. Meh.

[satansaloser2005]

Seriously, nine hours with no posts?



No, I didn't die, but not for lack of trying. (Read that I got rather ill and decided to take a nap, not that I need to see a counselor. Just so that's clear.) I'm actually going to bed now but I'll be back up in a few hours and I will discuss Menel's posts, I promise.