T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Nogrod]

Interestingly both Gwath and Sally who are pretty high on the post count have been careful enough not to voice a single suspicion against anyone. Their posting has been mainly banter or then in Sally's case saying why (pretty random reasons) she wants some to live and in Gwath's case defending himself from basically non-existent accusations.

References

"WW-manual", rule no.7 - the one I always manage not to obey - "be nice to many enough people or at least don't suspect too many at the same time if you wish to live long as people will feel bad when suspected and are thus more prone to vote for you".

"Ways to catch a werewolf", hint no.5: "a werewolf feels s/he is suspected and accused all the time - which is just natural as they live in a hostile environment anyway - so they tend to overreact to even small suspicions feeling the need to defend themselves - also they tend to be a wee bit grumpy when discussed".

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

"a werewolf feels s/he is suspected and accused all the time - which is just natural as they live in a hostile environment anyway - so they tend to overreact to even small suspicions feeling the need to defend themselves - also they tend to be a wee bit grumpy when discussed".

The only problem with this, Nog, is that innocents are typically - in my experience - more irritated when they're unjustly suspected, because wolves know what they're in for, but ordos usually feel like it should be obvious that they're ordos.

So I would adjust that to say that werewolves become hostile over little suspicions, but it's usually ordos who overreact to major ones.

[Nogrod]

From Menel I get quite innocent vibes. Or at least he plays like he plays and that has sent him to the gallows so many times ealy on just showing him innocent. So I wouldn't like to continue that tradition.

Ilya is hard one to interpret. I'm not sure it merits lynching yet but constant watch to be sure.

Bowie has played quite a hunker-down game as well so far but his remarks on not caring about the cobbler on Day1 (and especially that which followed: "I think it's a Day 2 problem. And then we kill them") do seem a bit fishy. Now that I think of it the "cobbler is not Day1 problem" -thing could be counted as just being unthoughtful but the quote in brackets indeed started to bother me a lot more...

Brinn has been veery-very careful. Like she always is. The problem is that she can pull that most innocent-looking air also when a wolf. But she shouldn't be lynched at least toDay I say.

Auch... have to vote in a minute... (I'm going to choir rehersals which I somehow find a most fitting thing indeed)

[Nogrod]

Okay. Gwath has also been lynched on Day1 a few times for playing the way he does so I'm a bit reluctant to help bringing that decision on once again so I will go for

++ Sally

She can be amusing throughout the game but she can also kill people at Night under that playful appearance.

I might have gone for Bowie as well but this is his second game (if I'm right) so let's see how he will fare later in the game, well at least toMorrow.


Fea: adjustement accepted.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Who's in my time zone...

Mac- deadline's noon, right?

Day one votes are always a pot shot anyway.

I know I'll not be voting;

Lariren (newbie)
Kath (no red flags raised at the mo')
Shasta or Nog (I need boys around who think in a more streamlined manner than me)
the phantom (because come day three, I'm going to want a plan from him. )
Bowie or Mac (no warning bells a'ringin')
TGWBWild (he's funny)
B88 (because he tried so hard to give me a filibuster...)
Cailineomer (because it would amuse me if xe was singularly both lovers at once)

Which leaves me with

Sally
Ilya
Brinniel
Gwath
Meneltarmacil
Gollum the Great

I'm tempted to vote Brinn for the whole evil seer/good seer thing in Di's game. But as that doesn't really pertain to this game...

I don't really know.

I'll ponder (and by ponder I mean try to find a pair of great boots online) and come back in a bit.

[Boromir88]

Interestingly both Gwath and Sally who are pretty high on the post count have been careful enough not to voice a single suspicion against anyone.~Nog

Yee-gads I said I wasn't going to do this. Good point about sally, but I'm not sure why you would use this accusation against Gwath. He hasn't made a post in a while, his last post was still relatively early (some 6 hours in) - look at the chatter - what are you expecting?

sally I can see, she's been hanging around but hasn't quite made a mark yet. Even with providing amusement, that typically is stuff that gets forgotten. I present to you exit polls of favorite LOTR characters immediately after watching FOTR and from an on-line survey 6 months later

Cinema

Aragorn 20%
Legolas 17%
Sam 15%
Gandalf 12%
Gollum 11%
Gimli 9%
Frodo 6%
Arwen 2%

Online

Aragorn 29%
Sam 23%
Gandalf 15%
Legolas 11%
Frodo 7%
Gollum 7%

From Chapter 7 of Watching the Lord of the Rings -Tolkien's World Audiences

There is a growth in Aragorn, Sam, Gandalf, these characters have staying power, they are the strong characters. While the hot (Legolas) and funny (Gimli) drop significantly - amusement provides no significant staying power. These are the ones who go forgotten after a period of time. And someone wanting to be forgotten worries me.

sally, wishing to amuse us, make us feel good with you, while we spin around in circles, eh?

Edit: fixing the tables and crossing with Nogrod

[the guy who be short]

Feanor list no make Wild Man feel any better. Feanor suspect nobody. Feanor give no real information. Frivolous.

Menel. Post 32 - Say no lynch the tricksies. No why.

Post 40 - Aganzir banter. No want triple lynch. This can be critic-thought, but can be innocent-thought.

Post 64 - Agree cobbler great danger. Say perhaps phantom cobbler.

Post 92 - Ask Mac why Mac find Menel suspicious. Nazgul banter.

Wild Man still not comfortable. Seem present, but careful, accuse nobody. But Nogrod say this normal.

Nogrod vote Sally. Wild Man say: fair. But Wild Man think Kath-Gollum better choice.

Therefore Wild Man have many choice for vote. Fea-Kath-Gollum, all no vote. Menel, one vote, but Wild Man less willing to vote.

[the guy who be short]

Deadline in two man-hour.

Boro make valid point about Sally.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Deadline in two man-hour.

Got it. Thanks.

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod voted? Nogrod voted first? Nogrod voted hours before the deadline....

If he were a horse there would be a stewards enquiry.

[Boromir88]

Lariren gets the complimentary pass for today, we also serve a complimentary continental breakfast too. There's even waffles!

Every one not named

Mith
Lariren
tgwbs
the phantom
Fea
Menel
Nogrod
Cailin

is eligible for a vote from me. I'm out for lunch and will return before the dead line.

Edit: By eligible I obviously mean "legible," wow that was worse than balogna. And I'm not even sure if that word can be used in the way I'm trying to use it.

Edit 2: Wait scratch that, I do mean "eligible" that is a word, it's one of those that just don't look right.

[Kath]

Haha whatever Nogbod, you just want to vote for me because I finally got to kill you early last game.

Ahem, and back to this one. I've been keeping up with events during the day but haven't really thought about anything properly yet. I'll go read through the thread with a more analytical mind and see if anything pops up.

[Kath]

Boro - ah turns out Boro agrees with me about the Cobbler Day 1/2 thing. His 'deal with phantom' plan excludes one wonderful possibility, his early death. Opposite opinions to me on Fea's list, doesn't mean his aren't right. Also disagrees with Mac about Menel.

Gwath - rule confusion as they hadn't gone up at that point. Gets cross with Fea for messing about, I love it. Says Nog is trying to make himself look better by accusing him, not sure of the logic there. Suspicious of Nog, I'd say that's sort of fair, Mac picked up on it being a bit strange as well. Also Lariren for not having original ideas, though I'd say she's doing pretty well with that. Votes Nog.

Agan - jokes about not voting Mac, if they turn out to be wolf buddies I will be very impressed by this early protection system. Oh and yes I do prefer German to French. Good point about the diva/divo in answer to Boro. Suspicious of Mac and Nog - I'd say good reasoning. Retains suspicion of Mac.

Fea - does not actually say that she is a wolf, simply says that Agan's list is right. As it's not an outright 'confession' I'd say that makes her look more suspicious! Pretty much as few conclusions as Brinn came up with, dressed in more language.

Nog - not sure if he was actually suspicious of Gwath when he mentioned him but whatever the case it came across as quite pointed. Alright I do understand why he gets annoyed with people who aren't around much during the Day and I am a terrible offender for that, so for a Day 1 lynch vote I understand where he's coming from. However, given that Mith is our mod I don't believe she'd make a non-participant a wolf. Then mentions that even those with high post counts can actually be saying nothing. Thinks Bowie quite suspicious for the Cobbler remark. Votes sally - so switched quite dramatically from his original 'will vote for a quiet person' idea. Not keen on the inconsistency but he did produce good reasoning for his suspicions.

Lariren - newbie (albeit Fea's friend and therefore probably very well versed in 'Downs culture!) so I'm not going to consider her for voting toDay. Says the diva/divo is in the worst position because if gone after the wolves will know who they are, but what does it matter when they can't be killed. Suspicious of Ilya (fair), Gwath (I disagree). I might just say though to Lariren that mentioning possible Seers out loud is something we don't usually do ... just in case we're right! Ah, which Agan just said, oh well. I like her thinking though.

phantom - kill him, kill him now. I only wish he'd been around last game so I could have had that pleasure! But actually so far he looks alright to me - I like his 'what we know will happen list', it's sadly all so true. Good point about the Cobbler being a real threat for once. Keen on Strongbow.

tgwbs - Wild Man language heretic. But the amusement value makes me want to leave him be for a Day or so. Says kill the confusing ones, this early in the game I'm not sure that's wise, Day 1's are there for those who are good at playing around to do so and thus confuse. Let the wolves try to deal with the Cobbler toNight, focus on the Cobbler during Day 2. That doesn't quite work to me - why offer the wolves even one Cobbler dream. Suspicious of Mac for accusing of being careful whilst being careful, Menel for being careful and trying to deflect attention, Brinn for being careful (see what I mean about half the village being careful?), Ilya for talking in riddles. His suspicions have a good basis to them. Suspicious of Fea for no substance, some suspicion of Menel because he's being careful, wants to vote me! Outrageous! First time I get to play with him in ages and all he wants to do is kill me - oh well. He wants to vote Gollum too though which I do agree with. Votes Fea - apparently because I foiled his 'vote Kath' plot by appearing.

Brinn - list post but not a conclusion in sight, except that she'll be watching me and Boro for past-based reasons.

Ilya - nothing to say she says. I'm sure she's usually more verbose than that even in as busy as village as our 48 Day/night one - fishy I say. Good points about the Soulmates, no one else has even mentioned them so far. Lover roles are always dangerous ones.

Strongbow - says the Cobbler can be left til Day 2 but I don't entirely see the logic. If we're agreed that the Cobbler is pretty much as dangerous as the wolves then we should try to get any/either even Day 1.

Mac - says phantom and Ilya are trustworthy, Menel and Agan are not, but no reasoning. Ah Menel is because he is too careful. How so? It's Day 1 and I don't see a difference between his behaviour and that of most of the village ... oops sorry Mith, I mean contestants. Votes Menel - has been consistently suspicious of him all Day, for perhaps not brilliant reasons but it is Day 1 and Menel has been a Fenris before as I recall so maybe Mac has seen something there.

Gollum - says he will be making daily posts, I'm waiting for the deluge of posts from Nog/tgwbs/Boro going 'kill the quiet ones' and see how he reacts. Says Strongbow is suspicious but no reasoning.

Shasta - pops up, no content, votes tgwbs with no reasoning. Really had better hear more from him toMorrow if he doesn't end up dead as a no trail kill.

Cailin/Eomer - votes Nogrod because of his indecisiveness. Well, it has led to his downfall in the past so I won't argue, and it was a very early Day 1 post.

And I have nothing on sally or Menel - they were in the list when I was noting down things but I just had nothing to say. Therefore they're either great under the radar wolves or innocent.

So, for me:

Suspicious:
Gwath - now usually I'm the only one supporting him because I'm used to that slightly abrasive style, but this time there's some off logic as well.
Ilya - for saying she was overwhelmed despite having been in Fea's village.
Strongbow - odd Cobbler reasoning.
Fea - for not managing to reach any conclusions.

Innocent:
Agan
Lariren
phantom

No idea:
sally
Menel
Shasta
Cailin/Eomer
Boro
Mac
Nog
Brinn
tgwbs
Gollum - but if he doesn't give us anything useful toMorrow he goes on my 'lynch on principle' list, otherwise it's just like having Gil again.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Lariren gets the complimentary pass for today, we also serve a complimentary continental breakfast too. There's even waffles!

I like waffles.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Nog. I don't know - there's just something I don't like. His question/accusation against Gwath was rather bad. Besides I think it was phrased rather like an accusation, and later he accused Gwath of taking it too seriously. Also I don't like his 'double lynch on day 1 would be riskier for the critics than innocents' logic.

That's actually a very good point. It would be like the guilty party to want to try to kill more than one innocent on the first day. Now I shall have to rethink my voting(though I haven't actually voted yet).

[the phantom]

Okay...

Fea, Nogrod, Mac, and Boro are all up to something. Of course that doesn't mean we should lynch them. They might even be Ordos purposefully looking like they're up to something in order to draw a Night-kill. But then again, perhaps one of them is the deadly Cobbler. And one is a Critic.

But really, I'm not ready to try lynching one of them on Day 1. I want to see more of them, and I want to see who the Critics attempt to kill.

Right now I'm tempted to do a Nogrod and consider voting on principle. I won't be following his vote for Sally though. I very much want to see her live at least two more days. Let her make some accusations and such.