T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Ilya]

Man, this stuff is making my eyes hurt. Begin Page 6.

Post 201 - Brinn:

Noggie gives more substance, but I find of what he does say, I tend to disagree with more. Of all the candidates so far, he's the one who gives me the biggest wolfish vibe. A feeling is not much, but it's all I can really offer. I don't have time to give it more thought, and I wouldn't mind at all seeing him lynched.

++Nogrod

Post 202 - Gollum (to Nogrod):

I do not intend to post only once a day this game. I mentioned in the admin thread that my first day or two would be full, and werewolf (as much as I would like it to be so) is not at the top of my priority list. My thought on Strongbow is nothing more than a nebulous idea. (I still haven't read the whole game)

Post 203 - Menel:

And I'm still waiting to hear what you found regarding Nogrod, Fea, as are all of us. If you found something suspicious, I think everyone deserves to hear it.

Post 206 - Boro:

Who said what was surmised about Nogrod, between them, was something suspicious?

Post 213 - Opera Ghost:

Boro- what do you think about all these Nog votes? I'm extremely surprised.

Do you think that tomorrow we should probably vote for someone who voted for him? Especially if he ends up lynched?

Post 218 - Sally:

I do hate a double lynch. Lesser (or greater, in this case, I hope) of two evils must prevail, because if we're wrong about one person we can handle that but if we're wrong about two people that could be....erm, well, bad, obviously.

Thus....

++Noggie

Post 219 - Wild Man:

Wild Man not like Noggie-votes. Nogrod always like this, no? As Nogrod useful, Wild Man exhort you: vote Fea-Menel-Mac.

Post 220 - Boro:

Depends upon if this turns out how I think it will, I will say I don't want Nog lynched today. Don't forget about retractables.

Post 221 - Agan:

On the one hand I wouldn't want to vote Mac because it's so long since he last played, but on the other hand he's a bit more suspicious than Nog... Garr I can't decide. I don't want to vote either of them.

Post 223 - Ilya:

I can't shake the feeling, though, and it's not fair to Gollum, who did post more than once a day, or Nog or Menel who're on my radar because other people put them there.

Post 225 - Sally:

Forgot to say that Menel's last post makes me feel a tad better about him, which is why I tipped the scale toward Noggie. Besides, I'd like to see more from Menel before I/we kill him.

Post 228 - Agan:

Heck

++Nog

Post 232 - Opera Ghost:

Okay, yes, Nog might be the Cobbler. But so might I. And on Day 1? Lynch? What a risk.

Post 233 - Sally:

I'm fine with either one, frankly, and there's no way I want a double.

Ack! Rush!

--Noggie

++Menel

End Page 6. End Day 1.

[Ilya]

Goin' back to Page 3.

Post 94 - Mac:

Nogrod - feels innocent, which is alarming.

Post 107 - Brinn:

Nogrod : Already starting to go at it with Gwath. Typical. About the whole double lynch thing...I think at this point it's more likely we would end up lynching two innocents than any critics.

Post 109 - Cailin:

It is also clear that I shall win this competition. Great range is all well and good, but being two-gendered is well… operatic! Still, best eliminate:

++NOGROD

Because the extent of his indecisiveness could lead to problems later on.

Post 113 - Wild Man:

Nogrod - Accuse Gwath on poor grounds. But Wild Man feel this just to make discussion. Wild Man inclide to think Nogrod innocent.

Post 116 - Fea:

Nogrod - Whether evil or not, he tends to provide a voice of reason (except when he's a desperate wolf and his voice of reason starts to seriously lack any semblance of said reason).

Post 119 - Nogrod:

So it seems that Boro and tp are at it again. Or at least they're giving out the impression they are at it again. Jolly good. I'd leave them to try and survive a few Nights first eg. I'm not willing to lynch either of them at least without some very serious arguments.

As well I'd be keen to see all those returning to the game for some time in at least a few Days with the same reservations: a believable case makes me chnge my mind.

Blah, I need to vote in about an hour so I'll jump back and see if there's anything that could help.

End Page 3.

[Macalaure]

Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.

*shakes head*

The phantom is immortal now and we have to end...*ahem* be enriched by him til the end? Oh... joy...


I have to apologise to Menel. Had I had more time and would have read your later responses to my vote, I would have retracted. You sounded very innocent there. Sorry.


To business.

Originally Posted by Boro

I don't like his vote for Menel. Looks like an easy way out to slide by the day.

Could you explain what you mean by "easy way out"?


Yesterday's voting:

Cailineomer's vote for Nogrod, while somewhat suspicious taken by itself, is probably not a critical one. Why would a critic want to get into trouble with one of the more persuading singers when there was not even an indication then that said singer will be eliminated? It would have been a move that could easily have backfired.
Gwath's vote for Nogrod and Fea's vote for Menel don't smell nice. Both are pushing a bandwaggon.
Brinniel's vote for Nogrod I don't like either. She pushes the bandwaggon with very little reason. Then again, a critic would have known that a Day1-lynching of Nogrod would have attracted interest, so would a critic not rather not have positioned herself in such a spot in a bandwaggon? Hmm..
What to do with Sally's vote? Of course every critic would love to see Nogrod lynched so early, but so much that they would risk their own neck for it by putting a vote in such a prominent space? Hardly. Her retraction looks innocent.
Boro's retraction for Menel is to save Nogrod, of course, but considering that he voted me before mostly because I voted Menel, it's a bit eyebrow-raising. Since obviously he was not happy about either choice, why didn't he at least try to bring up a third option?
Aganzir's vote for Nogrod is consequent - she suspected him for a long time. Not suspicious, unless her suspicions before were fabricated.
Wild man's vote for Menel is not suspicious either. He stated he liked to save Nogrod before.
I'll have a look at the other votes later if I think it might enlighten something.

An analysis of the attempted killing of the phantom would be interesting, but I'm sure tp can do that better than I. I'll leave that burden to him.

Originally Posted by tgwbw

This good new make up for last night double-lynch, think Wild Man.

Is it? While we still have tp's input, we are still down one in numbers and innocent votes. Painting situation better than situation is be suspicious behaviour, wild man.

Originally Posted by tp

I did the same to Mac after he showed he had reason to trust me. I assumed he had spotted the Lover thing, but warned him that, though he was right about me, he may have something slightly wrong.

It was something completely different. Some of your points on the roles seemed so off to me that I thought you were an innocent trying to confuse the critics.

[Ilya]

I, ah, might skip entirely recapping Page 1, at least for now. Data < Lunch. Begin Page 2.

Post 41 - Nogrod:

Says who? I mean the "actually playing" part... Are we now a bit too eager to show up our qualities as a decent player who has as his goal the elimination of the critics so that everyone could sing as bad as they wished? Have you Gwath started actually playing and what is your game?

Nice manouvres Fea! I did enjoy them. But then again that's the very same with everyone and everytime. The trick is to know when it's option b) rather than option a). And yes, one can get mad trying to come to a fair consideration about these...

Post 50 - Gwath:

"Says who?"
Why, Napoleon, of course, in his Art of Werewolf (Maxim 13, if you're curious).

I said it. If the purpose of a particular post is to perplex upon inspection, I don't see the point in trying to analyze it. Why give the poster that satisfaction? This is my opinion.

"Are we now a bit too eager to show up our qualities as a decent player who has as his goal the elimination of the critics so that everyone could sing as bad as they wished?"
An ironic question, and one which does not follow very closely from the post in view. Nogrod attempts to make himself look good by accusing me of trying to make myself look good. Nice try.

"Have you Gwath started actually playing and what is your game?"
If I had a "game" (I suppose you mean "strategy"), I certainly wouldn't tell you about it.

Post 51 - Nogrod:

"Talk of triple-lynching can be risky, even as a joke. Thankfully, we wraiths lack a sense of humor."
Making the point that a triple lynch (anyway we only can make a double-lynch) might be risky... hmmm... to whom at this point? For the critics themselves I think... one lynch and we probably end up with a fine and innocent singer toDay; a double lynch... the odds to bring down a critic get better... or at least the critics should have more to fear at this early hour if that option is open.

Anyway: confessedly lacking a sense of humour? A well known trait of music-critics over the whole wide world. Artists have fun, critics are grumpy, everyone knows that.

"An ironic question, and one which does not follow very closely from the post in view. Nogrod attempts to make himself look good by accusing me of trying to make myself look good. Nice try."
Accusing? Aren't we a wee bit touchy now?
*not an accusation, a question...*

Post 55 - Gwath:

The two are by no means mutually exclusive. A question can be used to state one's opinion quite as easily as any other form of sentence, and your question had distinct accusatory overtones. Whether or not I was being touchy is a matter of perspective, however, and you can't please everyone.

End Page 2. Actually, that wasn't so bad. I'll go ahead and do the first page as well.

[Ilya]

Begin Page 1

Post 18 - Nogrod:

You have totally misunderstood that ruling dear contralto. It is of course that we divo's need to protect our voice a half an hour before going to bed and so she has made that ruling to protect my voice but at the same time letting me off the hook from indecent questionnaires as to why I'm voting that early throughout the game...

Post 20 - Agan:

Nog is apparently the divo.

Post 21 - Nogrod:

Nice list Aganzir. I agree with it at this moment 100%.

Post 24 - Fea:

"Nog is apparently the divo."
Yes, I was going to accuse him of much the same.

Post 31 - Opera Ghost:

Nogrod- He will help me catch the Critics.

End Page 1. Will post my thoughts on all this in a bit, but right now there's a $5 Footlong calling to me.

[Boromir88]

Could you explain what you mean by "easy way out"?~Mac

It was an early vote and you said he was playing careful. It looks like one of those generic suspicions you can apply to just about anyone (well I guess minus the phantom )

Since obviously he was not happy about either choice, why didn't he at least try to bring up a third option?

I did, sally.

Regarding what you said about Cailin:

It would have been a move that could easily have backfired.

Or one that has worked perfectly. With big risk you have a chance of a big reward, of course it can blow up in your face, but my question is why is Cailin's vote risky for a critic? It's the first vote, very early, and Nogrod is usually a safe choice early, as anyone may figure he's not typically a day 1 choice.

The bigger question is, what made Nog a Day 1 choice this time?

Ilya, while it is much appreciated all the research and re-posting of stuff, it makes our job a lot easier, you dear, are frightening me. It reminds me of what Brinn did not to long ago, and was extremely successful in leading her to a wolf victory.

Edit: crossed with Agan

[Brinniel]

Oh great, we get to hear phantom talk for the entire game.

And if he doesn't count towards the tally, then it's really like he was killed...the only difference is that while the dead usually can't talk, he can. So when it comes down to numbers, we still had a loss last Night...am I right?

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel? He often gets lynched early and I'm irritated to see it happen again. The sudden turn-around on him which resulted in a double lynch is just as suspicious. Especially these players who seemed to be so certain of Noggie's innocence, they contributed to Menel's lynching (some even retracting). And I will mention another reason I chose Noggie for my vote was because I hoped it'd prevent the lynching of Menel who was being heavily considered at the time. I know how it feels to die early several games in a row, and I don't think it was fair at all for Menel to be lynched so early.

Btw, what's so strange about Nogrod getting lynched on Day 1? It happened in Shasta's game and he was a werewolf. It happened in tp's game and he was a werewolf. So really if you go by record, lynching him on Day 1 seemed like a pretty good idea at the time...

[Boromir88]

Do

n't know about that. I think his points against sally were not good.~Agan

Really? I didn't think so, I mean granted it was nothing spectacular. But I never know what some of you expect. We have to start somewhere, someone's got to go, and anything Nog said about sally, was better than what sally said herself.

I'm not sure what to make of sally's retract at the end. Eventhough it didn't count, there is a look of innocence as it does look like an attempt to break a double lynch. Her retract post also looks like a rush to make it before the deadline. However, it didn't make the deadline, and it could just be a critic-sally making it look like a failed attempt to prevent a double lynch. In anyway this is hard to tell, we're talking about a matter of seconds here.

[Ilya]

Boro, ha, yeah, about half-way through the thing, I thought, "Oh gosh, this is exactly what Brinn did." Still, I'm not gonna try to not be helpful because of the way it looks. Tempering what I do to how others percieve me is what made me the target of suspicion in Fea's game.

It was selfish analysis, too. I needed it because I wasn't paying much attention to much of anyone on Day 1. Now, I have a clearer picture and even some suspicions.

Fea, Boro, TGWBS, and Kath all feel good to me. Fea because she went blow for blow with TP in his ploy, and I don't think that's something a critic would do. Also, I feel like there was at least one critical hand in the all the Nogrod stuff I read and the other three were nowhere near that, and all of them make quite a deal of sense anyway.

The people who've tripped my radar are Sally, Agan, Lariren, Strongbow, and Cailin, and yes, I know there are only three critics so I'm wrong on at least two counts. The first three were the ones that really were instrumental on taking the Gwath/Nog opening sparring (which, when you look at it, is really nothing at all) and snowballing it. Lariren was just kinda agreeing and she eventually went in a different direction, but Agan knows better, and it was her vote at the last minute that sealed the double-lynch, even if it was only a mistake of timing. Bowie's points still strike me as odd, and I think killing Phantom is something he'd enjoy doing, while Cailin's post was just...strange. Haven't played with her before, so she's the one I suspect the least, and it kinda reminded me of Diamond's one weird post in Fea's last game anyway.

EDIT: Brinn, yes, we did take a hit in the tally, even if TP's still around to "help." I also would be happy to chronicle all of Menel's stuff, but I was kinda hoping someone else might do that.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Brinn

And I will mention another reason I chose Noggie for my vote was because I hoped it'd prevent the lynching of Menel who was being heavily considered at the time.

Totally agreed. I also share your concern about everyone concentrating just on Nog's lynching.

Originally Posted by Boro

Really? I didn't think so, I mean granted it was nothing spectacular. But I never know what some of you expect. We have to start somewhere, someone's got to go, and anything Nog said about sally, was better than what sally said herself.

You're right but it doesn't change the fact that it doesn't make sense to accuse someone of what they always do and that's why I found Nog's point against her weird.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Agan knows better, and it was her vote at the last minute that sealed the double-lynch, even if it was only a mistake of timing.

Technically it was tgwbs's retraction, not my vote, but well. In a way it was a mistake of timing - my fault for voting so late, but rather it was because I had no idea how many votes everyone had.

Originally Posted by Ilya on Bowie

I think killing Phantom is something he'd enjoy doing

Why?

[Strongbow]

Ok: Cobbler time. The reason I asserted that the Cobbler was a Day 2 problem was because there is more time for the Cobbler to reveal himself. In my experience the Cobbler is an artful dodger, especially when combined with a spy role. The probability that we lynch Walter Plinge toDay is fairly low, and while our critic catching capabilities are near as low, it's easier to spot that dodgy, flighty behavior on Day 2 or even Day 3.

Critics, however, are a priority to me.

Anyhow, I think that our Resident Ghost's death is striking. Who would want to kill someone so entertaining and good so early in the game?

My lack of voting was due to class. I wasn't aware that the DL had been pushed, or else I would have rushed to my next class to vote. Grrr...I'll be able to vote this Day coming.

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm going to fully admit here that this is slightly defensive(if only to prove my point):
I haven't said much new because by the time I think of something three posts down someone has already said. While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly. Even though people think I do it anyway.

Plus, as its been said many times, I'm new. I don't know a lot of the history that goes with the game. I like a lot, don't get me wrong, but this whole knowing to vote for who on which day isn't something I've been through. I'm just trying to feel around and post.

And, even though its very far back, I did pick up on the whole divo quote but I assumed it was along the lines of Fea's post no one listened to either.

Now I need to read more and try to come up with more theories, but in the mean time I have to go to night class bio.

[satansaloser2005]

*sees the night kill, or lack thereof, sort of, kind of, and stuff*

Oh. My. Giddy. Aunt. Yes please!!!!!

(But now there's no way to shut Phantom up. Oh, bugger. )


Excuse me, I have to go bash my face against a brick wall for an hour due to the trainwreck that was yesterDay's voting. Feel free to relieve me of my position in the game while I'm gone.

(Off to reread the Day now, to see what I can see)

[the guy who be short]

Sally - Voice no suspicion to start. Then, once Nog and Menel have 2 vote each, she suddenly say they both look suspicious! Seem like she want fuel bandwagon. Vote Nog despite suspect Menel more. However, claim this to avoid double lynch. Also, final attempt retraction to avoid double lynch. This make her seem more innocent. Overall, Wild Man neutral toward her.

Ilya - Throwaway vote in crucial position. This only mildly concerning.

Aganzir - Wild Man no understand why she vote so late. She present long before last-minute vote. Why late vote? With retrospect, Wild Man no convince by her suspicion of Mac, on feeling. Also, she should know not kill Nog day 1 for normal behaviour! Overall, Wild Man worried.

Lariren - Wild Man see little reason to suspect.

Therefore Wild Man form following continuum, where inter-star line represent complete neutral:

Most Innocent
Boro
Kath
-----------------
Brinniel
***************
Lariren-Shastanis-Strongbow-Gollum
***************
Ilya-Mac-Cailineomer
Sally
Gwath
-----------------
Fea-Aganzir
Most Guilty

Now Wild Man sleep.

[Lariren Shadow]

So when "analysis" was mentioned this is what I did. Hope it helps shed light on anything, if not, then well that was a good amount of time gone. Forgive spelling errors, as Fea can attest to, I can't spell to save my life.

Page 1 Analysis:

The only thing that vaguely makes Nog a target for anyone is the phantom’s comment that Nog will help him catch the killers. This is of course if we don’t take the comment about Nog being the divo seriously(which not a lot of people did).

Page 2 Analysis:

The only thing I get is a growing animocity between Gwath and Nog from this page. Which has been stated. And the idea of a double lynch being good(though not intended) was actually presented by Nog on this page.

Page 3 Analysis:

Most on this page think he’s innocent, which apparently is not a common occurrence. Cailin votes for Nog based on his indecisiveness, though not sure where that even took place during the game so far. Interesting vote choice actually. The Wild Man thought he was innocent even though Nog accused Gwath based on nothing. Fea makes a good point about him being the voice of reason as well.

Page 4 Analysis:

The phantom suspects that Nog, Fea, Mac, and Boro are up to something. But from what I’ve read there hasn’t been that much going on between them. Agan then comments on how the behavior of Nog is supicious based on the faulty logic of Gwath’s guilt and the logic of the double lynch.

It seems people latched onto Agan’s comments about those accusations. After that Shasta thinks of voting for Nog but doesn’t. Then the whole Fea and the phantom makes people look through the comments and try to find something. Not sure if this was to make Nog look guilty or not, but it was an interesting move by both.

In a side note, I made the spectacular post that says Nog is the seer on this page. Go me. Though I don't think this was by any means reasons for the votes for him(or at least that people mentioned).

Page 5 Analysis:

Pretty much the Fea and the phantom comments keep going with Boro asking about them then Menel saying that everyone else should not be left out. My comment about almost voting for Nog was based off of what Agan said about the Gwath accusations. That’s not to say I still don’t slightly suspect him anyway.

Brinn and Sally both think that Nog is off by this page. Though from reading it doesn’t really seem like he’s done much other than talk about who he thinks is guilty and comment/spare with Gwath. It is said that both Brinn and Sally think Nog is up to something based on his vote and his comments about Gwath. Kath also makes comments and actually didn’t think that what Nog said about Gwath was accusititory but also not sure about Nog’s switching from “voting the quiet one off” to “voting for Sally”. Should be noted Sally did say she was not just suspicious of Nog because he voted for her.

It seems Nog was always in the back of people’s minds as being “off’ or “not right”. By the end of page 5 only Cailin and Gwath had voted for him, for their own reasons(though not really sure what Calian's was).

Page 6 Analysis:

Brinn starts off the page with saying that out of all of those she could vote for Nog was giving off the most wolf vibes. Hence her vote, which, looking back at what she thought, didn’t seem out of the blue. Sally later then votes Nog to stop the double lynch. She was always suspicious of Nog so it seemed logical. Then tgwbs claims this is how Nog is all the time. Makes sense, if claim is true(I have no idea). He seems to have tried to stop the Nog lynching. Ilya than voices that Nog was put on her radar because of what other people have said. Pretty much this is what happened. People tended to side with Gwath about the accusations, then some(alright I did) listened to Agan’s comment about Nog and then people just started going with it.

As for the rest: Agan reasonably votes Nog. And the phantom made a remark about Nog possibly being the cobbler right after the minute turned so that made no sense.

What I have to gleamed from this information: Gwath and Nog began trying to incriminate the other. People began to side with Gwath because something in Nog’s language made him the more reasonable wolf. Agan picked up on that, Shasta did too(though didn't vote for Nog), and then people started voting for Nog with Cailin. Pretty much that vote is the only one that I can’t explain away. Everyone else’s made sense: Gwath would have voted on Nog because of the earlier comments, Brinn made a good case, as did Agan and Sally.

Everyone’s votes for Nog were backed up by what they thought and logical, except for Cailin’s, or is that normal for her/them?

X Posted: with Brinn and the phantom(is that the right comment?).

[Aganzir]

Sorry guys. I thought I was helping to prevent a double lynch. However I'm not entirely displeased with what has happened thus far (at least the phantom thing was rather funny), besides I would probably have continued to suspect Nog today anyway. However I have a harder time trying to see why Menel was killed. Apparently to save Nog from the gallows yes, but why was he so suspicious in the first place?

Originally Posted by Boro

I don't know if this was an early attempt to save critic-sally, but there were lots of unjustified attached "suspicions" that grew around Nogrod.

Don't know about that. I think his points against sally were not good. What's the sense in accusing someone of something they always do, at least this early?

Originally Posted by phantom

I'm wondering how many caught Nog's Divo comment. And then his joking confirmation to Agan.

I did but it was a thing I didn't take very seriously. Divo-Nog could say it, innocent Nog could say it, critic-Nog could say it.

I've noticed Lari's eagerness to agree on suspicions but I wouldn't lynch her because of it (at least yet) because she's new.

I'm getting more scared of Mac every time he posts. There's something that reminds me awfully much of the Mac-wolf I've seen.

Originally Posted by Mac

Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.

*shakes head*

The above comment reminds me of his I-told-you attitude (as in Other Minds and Hands, erm, almost two years ago when Boro I think almost got lynched all of a sudden - I don't remember the details; or in Scouring of the Shire vol.2 when people lynched an innocent probably Menel or Might). I don't know if he's always like that and I've just usually ignored it but those are the things I immediately connected his comment to.

edit: xed with Ilya